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Is there an equivalent of a "Moneyball" for the NHL?

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Old
09-11-2011, 06:25 PM
  #151
WarriorofTime
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Puck possession is valuable and incredibly underrated. Good things happen when you have the puck and are in the offensive zone, bad things happen when you do not have the puck and are in the defensive zone. So I generally like to get players that contribute to good puck possession and time on attack numbers, even if they aren't necessarily as good in the offensive zone as some others.

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09-11-2011, 06:36 PM
  #152
EvilPirateZamboni
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bank Shot View Post

San Jose picked up Malholtra at what? $700,000 in training camp when no one wanted him. Thats money puck.

Atlanta offered him $2 mil before the Sharks signed him.

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09-11-2011, 07:17 PM
  #153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WarriorofTime View Post
Puck possession is valuable and incredibly underrated. Good things happen when you have the puck and are in the offensive zone, bad things happen when you do not have the puck and are in the defensive zone. So I generally like to get players that contribute to good puck possession and time on attack numbers, even if they aren't necessarily as good in the offensive zone as some others.
Agreed. That's why I love the Canucks keeping Higgins so much. He's great along the boards, particularly in the offensive zone.

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09-12-2011, 01:43 PM
  #154
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As others have mentioned, the game is far to dynamic to be quantified. Good analysis is quantitative and qualitative in business, sports, etc. As Einstein once said: "Not everything that can be counted counts, and not everything that counts can be counted."

Oddly enough, does anyone have a link to a database of NHL goals and shots their coordinates on the ice? Thanks.

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08-01-2012, 10:06 PM
  #155
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Moneyball Equivalent in the NHL?

I finally got the chance to watch Moneyball, great movie.

For anyone who hasn't seen/heard of it, the movie is about the Oakland A's who changed the way of forming a baseball team. Instead of going for scoring, the GM and Assistant GM looked for players with great On Base Percentage (OBP). The OBP eventually led to scoring, but there was a severe lack of home runs.

I know that baseball and hockey are more different than broccoli and chocolate, but the hockey fan in me got to thinking. What's the NHL equivalent to this? Was it the trap? Could there be a new way of forming a team that we can think of?

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08-01-2012, 10:10 PM
  #156
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phx to an extent had a couple guys they drafted, and took kinda guys that fit better on their team then others, and good coaching

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08-01-2012, 10:12 PM
  #157
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The NHL equivalent is, **** intangibles and two-way play. Pick the players that produce the most points per minutes of ice time.

ie, these players

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...8+19+20#snip=f

Hello Keith Aucoin, Nick Foligno, Mathieu Perreault, Matt Halischuk, Gilbert Brule, Benoit Pouliot, Daniel Carcillo, ...

None are considered top 6 forwards, but give them ice time and they might surprise

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08-01-2012, 10:13 PM
  #158
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Guys that get shots






Not as easy to for hockey since each play isn't a separate event

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08-01-2012, 10:14 PM
  #159
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Everyone that watches this movie for the first time and is an HF member seems to be compelled to always make a thread on this.

It's fascinating, really.

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08-01-2012, 10:18 PM
  #160
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zenith View Post
Everyone that watches this movie for the first time and is an HF member seems to be compelled to always make a thread on this.

It's fascinating, really.
Should I not have made it?

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08-01-2012, 10:18 PM
  #161
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saskriders View Post
Guys that get shots






Not as easy to for hockey since each play isn't a separate event
This. But we all know shot's isn't everything, just like OBP isn't everything in baseball.

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08-01-2012, 10:21 PM
  #162
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Perhaps it was the pre-lockout trap.

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08-01-2012, 10:27 PM
  #163
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Using the kings as an example, it best to draft from the goalie out. Look at the rangers as well, they have built their main core through drafting, and added a few pieces through free agency and trading.

<----Look at my avatar.(I didn't make it by the way) We are comparing
Dean Lombardi to Billy Bean because he they had a plan when they were named GM.

I have not seen moneyball yet, but I do want to see it. I think many GMs can learn from Billy Bean even though its a different sport

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08-01-2012, 10:31 PM
  #164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MandyAlwaysKnows View Post
The NHL equivalent is, **** intangibles and two-way play. Pick the players that produce the most points per minutes of ice time.

ie, these players

http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...8+19+20#snip=f

Hello Keith Aucoin, Nick Foligno, Mathieu Perreault, Matt Halischuk, Gilbert Brule, Benoit Pouliot, Daniel Carcillo, ...

None are considered top 6 forwards, but give them ice time and they might surprise
Shot differential.

TSN did a little story about it. I can't remember the name of it for the life of me, but it's how many shots for you're on the ice, compared to the amount against.


I don't know of any teams that have incorporated this strategy for drafting and trades though.

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08-01-2012, 10:37 PM
  #165
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chungo View Post
Shot differential.

TSN did a little story about it. I can't remember the name of it for the life of me, but it's how many shots for you're on the ice, compared to the amount against.


I don't know of any teams that have incorporated this strategy for drafting and trades though.
But shots don't measure actual goals though


Last edited by MAK19: 08-01-2012 at 11:01 PM.
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Old
08-01-2012, 10:37 PM
  #166
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Dave Tippett does have his own stat system. He's never gone into too much detail on how it works though.

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08-01-2012, 10:37 PM
  #167
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Does no one remember Mike Gillis' hiring? He had the same question 4 years ago...Not sure what system he came up with or how well it worked for him. But here's an article I remember reading when Gillis was hired at the time;

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/n...8c45a9&k=26423

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08-01-2012, 10:48 PM
  #168
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saskriders View Post
Guys that get shots






Not as easy to for hockey since each play isn't a separate event
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frelimo View Post
This. But we all know shot's isn't everything, just like OBP isn't everything in baseball.

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08-01-2012, 10:58 PM
  #169
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SLAPSHOT723 View Post
I finally got the chance to watch Moneyball, great movie.

For anyone who hasn't seen/heard of it, the movie is about the Oakland A's who changed the way of forming a baseball team. Instead of going for scoring, the GM and Assistant GM looked for players with great On Base Percentage (OBP). The OBP eventually led to scoring, but there was a severe lack of home runs.

I know that baseball and hockey are more different than broccoli and chocolate, but the hockey fan in me got to thinking. What's the NHL equivalent to this? Was it the trap? Could there be a new way of forming a team that we can think of?
Its not the trap

Yes, a lot of behind the scenes stuff is changing. I can tell you there are a few teams playing with a couple of formulas including adjusted plus minus with different types of regression, expected scoring and adjusted scoring with league and conference adjustments (but no division adjustments, which i'm on the fence about), DIGR which is basically save percentage adjusted for your defense to see whos sheltered and whatnot.

Lots of these stats are still very infantile. Baseball is easy to track, pitch counts, types, balls hit, balls in play, WAR/UZR/BABIP/etc; hockey is a lot more difficult to track. There are also a lot of people working at it right now so while it can be confusing and everyone bickers that the way this person does it is wrong, its overall very helpful. They're finding things that overlap or picking up an idea or two from different stats which helps in the long run making stats more accurate.

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08-01-2012, 11:12 PM
  #170
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SLAPSHOT723 View Post
I finally got the chance to watch Moneyball, great movie.

For anyone who hasn't seen/heard of it, the movie is about the Oakland A's who changed the way of forming a baseball team. Instead of going for scoring, the GM and Assistant GM looked for players with great On Base Percentage (OBP). The OBP eventually led to scoring, but there was a severe lack of home runs.

I know that baseball and hockey are more different than broccoli and chocolate, but the hockey fan in me got to thinking. What's the NHL equivalent to this? Was it the trap? Could there be a new way of forming a team that we can think of?
The idea is to start with the end goal, and work backwards to see how you can get there. In baseball, if you want to win, you need to score, and unless you hit a home run (which cheap players usually aren't good at ... and the A's were going for cheap), you have to get on base. Getting on base is the key.

In hockey, if you want to win you need to score. To score you need to shoot. And to shoot, you need to have possession of the puck in the offensive zone.

I'm a bit unclear on the details, but I've seen two "advanced stats" called Corsi and Fenwick which are supposed to measure how often you have offensive-zone puck possession. IIRC the top two teams in Fenwick post-lockout were the 2008 Wings and the 2010 Blackhawks - and I don't think that's a coincidence.

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08-01-2012, 11:29 PM
  #171
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shabutie View Post
Does no one remember Mike Gillis' hiring? He had the same question 4 years ago...Not sure what system he came up with or how well it worked for him. But here's an article I remember reading when Gillis was hired at the time;

http://www.canada.com/vancouversun/n...8c45a9&k=26423
An article on some of Gillis' unconventional methods:

http://canucksarmy.com/2012/7/24/the...on-performance

Gillis has hired sleep doctors to help the team deal with fatigue on road trips, and had players wear "sleep bracelets" to track their heart rates when sleeping in order to figure out how many hours of sleep they need to get to perform their best. There is apparently something called a "Human Performance Plan" that's supposed to help players perform at their best in the third period as opposed to earlier in the game.

As far as player movements go, the Manny Malhotra signing struck me as a Moneyball move: faceoff wins for puck possession and all the good things that it brings.

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08-01-2012, 11:35 PM
  #172
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SLAPSHOT723 View Post
I finally got the chance to watch Moneyball, great movie.

For anyone who hasn't seen/heard of it, the movie is about the Oakland A's who changed the way of forming a baseball team. Instead of going for scoring, the GM and Assistant GM looked for players with great On Base Percentage (OBP). The OBP eventually led to scoring, but there was a severe lack of home runs.

I know that baseball and hockey are more different than broccoli and chocolate, but the hockey fan in me got to thinking. What's the NHL equivalent to this? Was it the trap? Could there be a new way of forming a team that we can think of?
They didn't change the way of forming a baseball team. They just couldn't spend money as other teams so they had to find a way to stay competitive and Billy Beane just happened to find right players at the right time.

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08-01-2012, 11:37 PM
  #173
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08-01-2012, 11:38 PM
  #174
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Meteor View Post
An article on some of Gillis' unconventional methods:

http://canucksarmy.com/2012/7/24/the...on-performance

Gillis has hired sleep doctors to help the team deal with fatigue on road trips, and had players wear "sleep bracelets" to track their heart rates when sleeping in order to figure out how many hours of sleep they need to get to perform their best. There is apparently something called a "Human Performance Plan" that's supposed to help players perform at their best in the third period as opposed to earlier in the game.

As far as player movements go, the Manny Malhotra signing struck me as a Moneyball move: faceoff wins for puck possession and all the good things that it brings.
If Gillis signed Manny for 500K, yes it would've been. But his salary is 2.5 million per year.

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Old
08-01-2012, 11:47 PM
  #175
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The cap significantly decreases market inefficiencies in the NHL since the salary structure is so rigid.

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