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Stop signs are for quitters: the Moises Sierra story

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08-02-2012, 08:44 PM
  #101
Scion
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I see the stats too, man. I know the advanced pitching stats and I've read many articles about the statistics. I've also played the sport and I've also coached competitive high-school teams. I will never JUST buy into stats. If stats were the only thing that mattered then major league teams would never invest in scouts to ACTUALLY watch players play the sport. Stats are good to get an average of a year long season. They WON'T tell you what you really need to know about a player when you are at the plate or on the mound. That comes from experience.

You are quoting me because I said that I wasn't sure about Hernandez because I HAVEN'T seen him pitch much. I've seen his stats and they look good but that doesn't tell me about Felix Hernandez. Stats won't tell me about his personality or emotions on the mound. Stats won't tell me about his off-field distractions or his home-life. Stats won't tell me how his teammates consider him. Stats won't tell me about his delivery and posture. Verlander I HAVE seen enough to know that he has both impeccable numbers and a repeatable deliver and a positive attitude. Stop trying to get me into an argument about who's baseball penis is larger.
What does Hernandez: home life, posture, and off-field distractions have to do with evaluating his game?

Second, you obviously don't understand a great deal about advanced statistics if you need to observe Hernandez for 10 games before making an assessment on his play.

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08-02-2012, 08:49 PM
  #102
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Wandy Rodriguez changed his approach so that he could pitch more efficiently, and deeper into games. He is still capable of striking batters out when needed, and over his career has a better K rate. All of this is irrelevent however because even without the K's Rodriguez is a superior pitcher: less walks per 9, lower FIP, lower xFIP, lower SIERRA, higher GB%, lower HR/FB ratio etc...
Their stats are fairly similar and this is with Happ struggling by all accounts. The problem here is that if Happ isn't good enough to be more than a 5 in the East, neither is Wandy. And Wandy makes a lot of money.

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08-02-2012, 08:50 PM
  #103
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Gose WAS acquired in the Halladay trade. Jesus, I'm sick of this. Yes, we got Wallace in the trade. Wallace was traded straight up for Gose less than 5 months afterwards after Philly gave up for Micheal Taylor. When will people stop bringing up that Wallace was the middle-man?? For all intents and purposes we got Gose in the Halladay trade.


I am willing to say Verlander is the most dominant by the way I've watched him start probably 30 games first-hand by now, and I've been validated by enough sports reporters to crown him Cy Young. No, I have not seen EVERY pitcher in EVERY game. NOBODY will ever see that many games. Hernandez is one guy that I've chosen not to watch because I don't care for Seattle's team and I won't watch all of their games. I actually have a job and a social life so there's no way I'm going to watch EVERY pitcher.



My credibility is strengthened by the fact that I'm willing to admit when I don't know a pitcher well enough to talk about him personally.
Good god.

Philadelphia didn't trade Gose in the Halladay trade, they traded Wallace. You were talking about what it would take to get Hernandez, and you then claimed that Philadelphia had to trade Drabek, Gose, and d'Arnaud for Halladay. That's not true.

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08-02-2012, 08:52 PM
  #104
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Good god.

Philadelphia didn't trade Gose in the Halladay trade, they traded Wallace. You were talking about what it would take to get Hernandez, and you then claimed that Philadelphia had to trade Drabek, Gose, and d'Arnaud for Halladay. That's not true.
No, Philly didn't trade Wallace. they traded Michael Taylor.

Taylor was sent to Oakland for Wallace, Wallace was sent to Houston for Gose. Gose had previously gone from Philly to Houston for Roy Oswalt after the Halladay trade.

The original Halladay package sent to Toronto was Drabek, d'Arnaud, & Taylor.

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08-02-2012, 09:03 PM
  #105
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Does Drabek have any value? I get the feeling he's gonna be one of those guys that gets it right at some point in his career but man, I hate watching him "pitch"

edit: not that it matters, since he is likely gone for all of next year, but do you guys have any hopes for him in the future?


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08-02-2012, 09:10 PM
  #106
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No, Philly didn't trade Wallace. they traded Michael Taylor.

Taylor was sent to Oakland for Wallace, Wallace was sent to Houston for Gose. Gose had previously gone from Philly to Houston for Roy Oswalt after the Halladay trade.

The original Halladay package sent to Toronto was Drabek, d'Arnaud, & Taylor.
Okay, sorry, you're correct. I got ahead of myself. You don't need to break the trades down for me, I'm fully aware of what took place.

It really doesn't matter because the point still stands. Gose was not traded for Halladay, and that's all there is to it.

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08-02-2012, 09:20 PM
  #107
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Does Drabek have any value? I get the feeling he's gonna be one of those guys that gets it right at some point in his career but man, I hate watching him "pitch"

edit: not that it matters, since he is likely gone for all of next year, but do you guys have any hopes for him in the future?
It's more of a mechanical issue. If he can keep his mechanics consistent, he'll be an effective pitcher. With his stuff, he has a higher upside than his Cy Young dad Doug, but his inconsistent mechanics have led to bad control which leads to, you guessed it, walks.

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08-02-2012, 09:46 PM
  #108
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Does Drabek have any value? I get the feeling he's gonna be one of those guys that gets it right at some point in his career but man, I hate watching him "pitch"

edit: not that it matters, since he is likely gone for all of next year, but do you guys have any hopes for him in the future?
I have mixed feelings about that guy. I don't watch as much anymore but sometimes I see why he was touted but then I see a washout.

Also any update on Morrow? I really hope he comes back and helps the pen.

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08-02-2012, 09:59 PM
  #109
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I have mixed feelings about that guy. I don't watch as much anymore but sometimes I see why he was touted but then I see a washout.

Also any update on Morrow? I really hope he comes back and helps the pen.

Making his 2nd rehab start tonight.

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08-02-2012, 10:02 PM
  #110
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Making his 2nd rehab start tonight.
excellent.

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08-02-2012, 10:15 PM
  #111
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Does Drabek have any value? I get the feeling he's gonna be one of those guys that gets it right at some point in his career but man, I hate watching him "pitch"

edit: not that it matters, since he is likely gone for all of next year, but do you guys have any hopes for him in the future?
He's so talented you have to believe he will put it together eventually. When he's on his game he looks so dominant, and it's only the control isseus that hurt him. That can't last forever, can it?

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08-02-2012, 10:39 PM
  #112
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Originally Posted by Faidh ar Rud Eigin View Post
He's so talented you have to believe he will put it together eventually. When he's on his game he looks so dominant, and it's only the control isseus that hurt him. That can't last forever, can it?
You wouldn't think so. I hope he puts it together soon though, cause if not, I can see us dealing him and him exploding on another team.

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Old
08-02-2012, 10:59 PM
  #113
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First, full disclosure: occasional poster coming in peace. I'm one of those guys who show up on deadline day or the start of free agency, or during the winter meetings. Not a bandwagon jumper, and not a basher - I'm just more interested in the strategy of franchise building than I am in the day-to-day tactical decisions of running a ball club, so these are the times of year when ters's something more interesting for me to read about.

I've just read through 30-odd pages of debate about the team's approach/commitment to winning. It's great to see the passion on display from people (on both sides) who clearly love this team and want to see it succeed. And some of you really know your baseball, kudos.

Which I guess is why I'm surprised that the debate seems to have become so polarized - I guess that's the divisive nature of discourse and rhetoric these days.

I say surprised, because it seems painfully obvious to me that it takes great drafting/development, AND great trades, AND smart FA signings to build a perennial contender. All of them working in harmony to bring in the assets that will help you compete long term.

Antbopolous' approach appears to clearly reflect that each component of this process has its own time horizon. Drafting and developing takes the longest, so needs to be started first. Free Agents are (exceptions like Darvish notwithstanding) for established MLBers, do they can come later in the process. Trades can be for either kind of asset, so hopefully they are being considered throughout. This appears to be precisely what Anthopolous is doing.

More than that, he's refusing to throw his team's salary structure out of whack with extravagant signings of long-term deals, so he's made largely good decisions even on the moves he hasn't made.

I get that there's a window of opportunity with a couple of key veterans on this squad, and I think we're kidding ourselves if we suggest for a moment that Anthopolous is somehow less aware of that than we are. I am co didn't we will see some movement - both in trades and free agency - this winter and going forward to make a serious push in 2013. I was bitterly disappointed they disn't make a more serious bid for Darvish last year as that amounts to a young core asset that costs nothing but money - a lot of money, granted, but in salary terms not enough to throw out your structure. But I understand that they weren't convinced enough of his potential to e willing to pay the kind of upfront cost everyone else in baseball seemed to know it would take based on previous experience. But aside from that, I think Anthopolous has shown himself to be a shrewd judge of talent and a crafty negotiator - overall I have no difficulty seeing him making the right kinds of moves at the right times going forward to make this team a legit playoff team both in 2013 and going forward.

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08-03-2012, 12:12 AM
  #114
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Am I the only else that thinks Alvarez should be in the minors next year to work on his pitches?


Last edited by canucksfan: 08-03-2012 at 12:20 AM.
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08-03-2012, 12:22 AM
  #115
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Am I the only else that thinks Alvarez should be in the minors next year to work on his pitches?
Depending on our off season he may well be. Hutch could end up there as well. Injuries have made it so that they can't send him down. Maybe when Morrow comes back but he's really struggle and needs to work on some stuff.

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08-03-2012, 12:32 AM
  #116
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Their stats are fairly similar and this is with Happ struggling by all accounts. The problem here is that if Happ isn't good enough to be more than a 5 in the East, neither is Wandy. And Wandy makes a lot of money.
Their stats are not similar at all, you have no idea what you are talking about.

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08-03-2012, 12:32 AM
  #117
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Originally Posted by Ohio Jones View Post
First, full disclosure: occasional poster coming in peace. I'm one of those guys who show up on deadline day or the start of free agency, or during the winter meetings. Not a bandwagon jumper, and not a basher - I'm just more interested in the strategy of franchise building than I am in the day-to-day tactical decisions of running a ball club, so these are the times of year when ters's something more interesting for me to read about.

I've just read through 30-odd pages of debate about the team's approach/commitment to winning. It's great to see the passion on display from people (on both sides) who clearly love this team and want to see it succeed. And some of you really know your baseball, kudos.

Which I guess is why I'm surprised that the debate seems to have become so polarized - I guess that's the divisive nature of discourse and rhetoric these days.

I say surprised, because it seems painfully obvious to me that it takes great drafting/development, AND great trades, AND smart FA signings to build a perennial contender. All of them working in harmony to bring in the assets that will help you compete long term.

Antbopolous' approach appears to clearly reflect that each component of this process has its own time horizon. Drafting and developing takes the longest, so needs to be started first. Free Agents are (exceptions like Darvish notwithstanding) for established MLBers, do they can come later in the process. Trades can be for either kind of asset, so hopefully they are being considered throughout. This appears to be precisely what Anthopolous is doing.

More than that, he's refusing to throw his team's salary structure out of whack with extravagant signings of long-term deals, so he's made largely good decisions even on the moves he hasn't made.

I get that there's a window of opportunity with a couple of key veterans on this squad, and I think we're kidding ourselves if we suggest for a moment that Anthopolous is somehow less aware of that than we are. I am co didn't we will see some movement - both in trades and free agency - this winter and going forward to make a serious push in 2013. I was bitterly disappointed they disn't make a more serious bid for Darvish last year as that amounts to a young core asset that costs nothing but money - a lot of money, granted, but in salary terms not enough to throw out your structure. But I understand that they weren't convinced enough of his potential to e willing to pay the kind of upfront cost everyone else in baseball seemed to know it would take based on previous experience. But aside from that, I think Anthopolous has shown himself to be a shrewd judge of talent and a crafty negotiator - overall I have no difficulty seeing him making the right kinds of moves at the right times going forward to make this team a legit playoff team both in 2013 and going forward.
well said. the problem with Toronto fans and they're impatient and can't watch a rebuild be done properly. In 2-4 years when our youth become the future superstars, or stars, or above average serviceable mlb players, and we see better results than now, they'll be coming in drones, its just the years before and teasing people with the thought they could make a run this year. The Jays decent success mislead fans, they're not ready to compete and AA's moves at the deadline showed this.

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08-03-2012, 12:34 AM
  #118
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NH lost in 17 innings tonight 9 7. Marisnick unfortunately went 1 for 7

Hech went 2 for 4 tonight for vegas

Desclafani pitched another gem. 6ip 5h 2r 0er 1bb 2k

Osuna actually got beat up a bit tonight

3ip 6h 4r 3er 2bb 4k

Tyler Gonzales continues to struggle. His era is still over 23 although it's pretty small sample size but he's being used out of the pen. I'm sure they are just working on his delivery though

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08-03-2012, 05:27 AM
  #119
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Their stats are not similar at all, you have no idea what you are talking about.
Instead of throwing out incorrect blanket statements and personal attacks, why don't you look at the stats.

They are within .25 in K/9 and HR/9. Wandy's BB rate is .8 lower. Wandy has an 8% higher GB% (being more of a groundball pitcher). Wandy has a .06 lower WHIP. Happ has a lower OPPAVG and OPPBABIP. He also has a lower OPP LD%. Wandy's career OPPOPS is .17 lower.

If Happ is a question mark for a starter, then Wandy is too. But Happ has something he can fall back on. He throws 2 fastballs and 3 other pitches. Wandy throws 1 fastball, his curve and a change.

By all accounts, Happ needs tweaking. No one is disputing that. I am disputing Wandy's value to this team (especially given the financials behind him).


Last edited by Bjindaho: 08-03-2012 at 06:18 AM.
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08-03-2012, 06:06 AM
  #120
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AA missed out on Chapman because he wouldn't pay up, and he also missed out on Darvish. Those two would look pretty good right now. Hopefully this doesn't happen when the next big international FA becomes available. To his credit, he was actually in those sweepstakes until the very end.

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08-03-2012, 06:16 AM
  #121
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AA missed out on Chapman because he wouldn't pay up, and he also missed out on Darvish. Those two would look pretty good right now. Hopefully this doesn't happen when the next big international FA becomes available. To his credit, he was actually in those sweepstakes until the very end.
There's now a cap on IFAs. And no one knows how "in" the Darvish sweeps he really was. Just that he put a bid in. We were in on Chapman and that one smarts a little. Cespedes smarts a little in retrospect (although committing that kind of money based on private workouts and a video of the kid would have been a huge gamble).

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08-03-2012, 06:28 AM
  #122
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Does Drabek have any value? I get the feeling he's gonna be one of those guys that gets it right at some point in his career but man, I hate watching him "pitch"

edit: not that it matters, since he is likely gone for all of next year, but do you guys have any hopes for him in the future?
I think he'll end up in the pen, but I think he'll be a back end type guy.

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08-03-2012, 06:29 AM
  #123
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Making his 2nd rehab start tonight.
AA was saying mid to end August would make sense for his return. Expect a few more rehab starts.

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08-03-2012, 06:30 AM
  #124
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Am I the only else that thinks Alvarez should be in the minors next year to work on his pitches?
I hope he and Huch are both there.

If they can both develop a good slider they'll be VERY good pitchers for us.

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08-03-2012, 06:32 AM
  #125
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Instead of throwing out incorrect blanket statements and personal attacks, why don't you look at the stats.

They are within .25 in K/9 and HR/9. Wandy's BB rate is .8 lower. Wandy has an 8% higher GB% (being more of a groundball pitcher). Wandy has a .06 lower WHIP. Happ has a lower OPPAVG and OPPBABIP. He also has a lower OPP LD%. Wandy's career OPPOPS is .17 lower.
Those are biggers gaps than I think you realize... Not to mention, that Wandy Rodriguez has the edge in almost all of them (over the span of their respective careers, as well as more recent sample sizes), which itself counts for something.

In addition to leading the majority of peripheral stats, Rodriguez has the edge in every major predictive pitching stat (for his career).

Rodriguez:

FIP - 4.04
xFIP - 3.94
SIERRA - 4.03

Happ:

FIP - 4.49
xFIP - 4.43
SIERRA - 4.39

The above statistics become even more distorted when you isolate Rodriguez's last 6 seasons (2007-12). In that span, Rodriguez has an: FIP, xFIP, and SIERRA well below 4. Like I said above, the two aren't similar at all...

If that isn't enough to convince you, perhaps this will. Wandy Rodriguez' worst statistical season in the past 6 years (2011) was on par with J.A. Happ's best statistical season (2009) using WAR. In that season, Happ's WAR total was slightly inflated due to an unsustainably low ERA. That same season, Rodriguez posted better FIP, xFIP, and SIERRA totals. The other 4 seasons, aren't even close. Suffice it to say, the two are not comparable, and Wandy Rodriguez is without question the better pitcher, and the one you should prefer.

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