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08-04-2012, 05:41 PM
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garret9
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2011-2012 Statistical Analysis and 2012-2013 Preview

I've worked a lot away from home this summer; combine that with the slow offseason lately and I've had a lot of free time at the office to make what I'm about to present. I’ve re-watched most of our games and I’ve been part of the statistical community at Arctic Ice Hockey (more of an observer than participant).

First few posts are the raw stats I've used while the rest are my analysis of it. Now, I know a bunch of raw data preceding a bunch of writing can be boring, so sorry. Just take what you can out of it.

To me stats are interesting and fun although I still put highest priority on what I observe. Although I think hockey stats are far from perfect they can help supplement good observational skills and that’s how I use them. Please don’t turn this thread into a debate regarding the validity of stats, that’s not what this is supposed to be about. Please, though feel free to continue the conversation adding your own interpretations of what you observed combined with any of the statistics bellow or ones you have found elsewhere (or even none).

Legend:
GP = games played
TOI/60 = average time of ice a player receives per a game
CORSION = it’s like plus/minus but shots (including blocked shots) instead of goals; doing it this way removes the abilities/competency of the goalies at either end; over a large enough sample it can aproximate possession of the puck
CORSIQoC = gauge of the competition the player faced by judgement of CORSI
OZS = percentage of offensive zone starts versus both offensive and defensive (neutral zone doesn’t count)
G/60 = even strength goals per 60 mins of time on ice
A1/60 = even strength primary assists per 60 mins of time on ice
A2/60 = even strength secondary assists per… these tend to be less skill based for forwards
P/60 = even strength points per…
P/GM = points (I’ve used as even and PP combined) per game… good for defense since defense tend to QB the power play

Remember to check Arctic Ice Hockey for your Jets news, analysis and editorial needs


Last edited by garret9: 08-23-2012 at 12:44 AM.
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08-04-2012, 05:42 PM
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NamePOS GP TOI/60 CORSION CORSIQoC OZS G/60 A1/60 A2/60 P/60
EKANE LW 74 14.74 06.21 -0.736 57.6 1.26 0.55 0.60 2.42
ALADD LW 82 14.88 12.74 -0.448 57.8 1.08 0.39 0.30 1.77
APONIKAROVSKY LW 82 12.98 07.84 0.406 46.8 0.51 0.45 0.45 1.41
OJOKINEN C 82 14.63 -10.25 1.658 47.6 0.65 0.61 0.47 2.09
BLITTLE C 74 15.33 13.40 -0.527 53.6 0.85 0.53 0.16 1.53
ABURMISTROV C 76 13.20 07.24 -1.245 58.7 0.60 0.42 0.30 1.32
JSLATER C 78 12.32 -20.11 -0.217 28.5 0.75 0.37 0.12 1.25
BWHEELER RW 80 15.77 09.37 -0.666 57.8 0.52 1.00 0.52 2.05
KWELLWOOD RW 77 12.69 12.65 -0.479 60.5 0.74 0.68 0.74 2.15
NANTROPOV RW 69 12.42 01.96 -0.457 56.7 0.77 0.70 0.28 1.75
CTHORBURN RW 72 09.60 -17.70 -0.156 38.8 0.35 0.52 0.09 0.95
AMIETTINEN RW/LW 45 09.87 -05.94 -0.500 47.8 0.41 0.41 0.27 1.08
SMACHACEK RW 13 07.46 -04.33 -2.220 56.7 1.24 2.47 1.86 5.57
PCORMIER C/LW 09 06.36 16.76 -2.967 41.7 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
BMAXWELL C 15 06.53 -08.58 -1.344 65.7 0.61 2.45 0.61 3.68
DBYFUGLIEN RD 66 19.28 13.40 -0.545 53.4 0.28 0.42 0.57 1.27
ZBOGOSIAN RD 65 17.25 -00.91 -0.533 49.4 0.21 0.42 0.59 1.12
PPOSTMA RD 03 08.29 16.88 -4.267 71.4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
TENSTROM LD 62 18.52 11.18 -0.299 53.4 0.21 0.42 0.37 0.99
RHAINSEY LD 56 17.24 -03.36 -0.304 46.9 0.00 0.37 0.12 0.50
MSTUART LD 80 14.04 -03.42 -0.700 50.2 0.05 0.21 0.37 0.64
GCLITSOME LD 63 13.84 -03.30 -0.624 49.7 0.21 0.28 0.28 0.76


Last edited by garret9: 08-07-2012 at 04:35 AM.
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08-04-2012, 05:43 PM
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Placement on Team for Stat With +30 GP

NamePOS GP TOI/60 CORSION CORSIQoC OZS G/60 A1/60 A2/60 P/60
EKANE LW 74 04 06 11 05 01 05 02 01
ALADD LW 82 03 01 04 03 02 11 07 04
APONIKAROVSKY LW 82 08 01 04 15 07 10 05 08
OJOKINEN C 82 02 13 03 12 06 02 03 05
BLITTLE C 74 02 03 08 09 03 06 11 07
ABURMISTROV C 76 05 05 12 02 08 08 06 08
JSLATER C 78 08 13 03 13 05 12 12 09
BWHEELER RW 80 01 04 10 04 09 01 03 03
KWELLWOOD RW 77 06 02 06 01 06 04 01 02
NANTROPOV RW 69 07 07 05 06 04 02 08 05
CTHORBURN RW 72 11 12 02 11 12 07 13 12
AMIETTINEN RW/LW 45 10 09 07 10 10 09 09 10


NamePOS GP TOI/60 CORSION CORSIQoC OZS G/60 A1/60 A2/60 P/60
DBYFUGLIEN RD 66 1 2 4 2 1 1 2 1
ZBOGOSIAN RD 65 3 3 3 7 3 4 1 2
TENSTROM LD 62 2 1 1 1 5 2 4 3
RHAINSEY LD 56 4 6 2 8 8 3 8 7
MSTUART LD 80 5 7 6 5 7 6 3 6
GCLITSOME LD 63 6 5 5 6 4 5 6 4


Last edited by garret9: 08-04-2012 at 06:00 PM.
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08-04-2012, 05:44 PM
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This table here links you to a site that shows how teammates of the player differ with the player on and off the ice... really interesting to see. For example with Kane's you can see how that while Little was on the ice with Kane the Jets scored more goals but when Little was on the ice with Ladd they had higher CORSI (see above regarding meaning).

Name2011-12 5v5 goals With/Against Statistics
EKANE http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...5v5&type=goals
ALADD http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...5v5&type=goals
APONIKAROVSKY http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...5v5&type=goals
OJOKINEN http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...5v5&type=goals
BLITTLE http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...5v5&type=goals
ABURMISTROV http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...5v5&type=goals
JSLATER http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...5v5&type=goals
BWHEELER http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...5v5&type=goals
KWELLWOOD http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...5v5&type=goals
NANTROPOV http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...5v5&type=goals
CTHORBURN http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...5v5&type=goals
AMIETTINEN http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...5v5&type=goals
DBYFUGLIEN http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...5v5&type=goals
ZBOGOSIAN http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...5v5&type=goals
TENSTROM http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...5v5&type=goals
RHAINSEY http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...5v5&type=goals
MSTUART http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...5v5&type=goals
GCLITSOME http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/show...5v5&type=goals

Line Combinations:
http://www.leftwinglock.com/line-combos/
Can see the amount certain lineups were on the ice. This is done via TOI so you can see appearances of impartial line changes (ex: Kane-Slater-Thor for 1.8% of TOI etc).

Statistics Databases:
http://www.behindthenet.ca
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com


Last edited by garret9: 08-05-2012 at 10:18 AM.
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08-04-2012, 05:46 PM
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Garret’s Newly Suggested Lineup

1a) Andrew Ladd – Bryan Little – Blake Wheeler
1b) Evander Kane – Olli Jokinen – Kyle Wellwood
3) Alexei Ponikarovsky – Alexander Burmistrov – Nik Antropov
4) Spencer Machecek – Jim Slater – Chris Thorburn
Available: Antti Miettenin, Ben Maxwell, Patrice Cormier

1) Tobias Enstrom – Dustin Byfuglien
2) Ron Hainsey – Zach Bogosian
3) Mark Stuart – Paul Postma
Available: Grant Clitsome, Derek Meech, Zach Redmond

Why that Lineup?
First as most of you know Noel’s system last year went:
1st Line: Offensive zone minutes against top lines
2nd Line: Offensive zone minutes against middle 6 lines
3rd Line: GST: All defensive zone minutes against top lines
4th Line: Cushiest minutes in the offensive zone

Most likely now we will be looking at a more spread out assignments with the defensive zone minutes being spread between the 3rd and 4th line, and the really easy offensive zone minutes being pushed to the 2nd line.

After recently re-watching a lot of last year’s games and looking at statistics I’ve learned (or really just reinforced) two things: the Ladd, Little, Wheeler line plays a great possession game against some of the league’s top lines, and, because of the first point, Kane and Wellwood were very good at taking advantage of the cushy minutes given to them from it. It’s tough to choose whether or not Jokinen will usurp Little since last year Jokinen didn’t appear to play a strong possession game corsi wise, but on the other hand he was used similarly to how we used Slater and came out better scoring at a higher rate than most of our players. Kane played well with Little and Wheeler, in fact they played better with him than with Ladd points wise, but Kane has done such a good job in exposing cushy offensive minutes it will be interesting to see what he could do with some of the “AHL” line’s even cushier minutes being pushed to them.

Last year GST was given the tough job of shutting down top lines while never really seeing the offensive zone while the 4th line was given cushiest offensive minutes on the team. Most of the cushy minutes would be best pushed to the Kane-Jokinen-Wellwood line to dominate, while the tough assignments can get more spread out with Little’s, Burmistrov’s and Slater’s line. Most likely Burmistrov’s line would face the bulk tougher defensive zone minutes while Slater’s takes the easier lineups. This will hopefully end the travesty of watching 4th line calibre players look like they are playing in a penalty kill situation at even strength.

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08-04-2012, 05:49 PM
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Individual Analysis

First line: After last year’s success in playing a strong possession game, I have difficulty in breaking them up. I was earlier a fan of pushing Wheeler with Kane and Jokinen, but I think for even strength to leave it like this and use Kane-Jokinen-Wheeler for the power play.

Ladd: The Jets leader in both words and actions. While trailing Kane in both shots and G/60, he plays a stronger possession game against some of the league’s toughest match ups with the rest of the two-way savvy LLW line (or at AIH: Ladd’s Little Wheeler). Next season Ladd will most likely continue with similar production.
For LW, Ladd was 30th in pts, 17th in goals, 41st in assists. For 5v5 */60 with +30 GP he comes 44th in p/60, 12th in g/60, and 75th for a1/60. Production and possession wise he is an average top-line scorer with strong possession abilities.

Little: Just like Ladd, he is a strong possession savvy two-way player. He is a decent playmaker who could easily have more points last season; he’s always had goal scorer’s shot but has never taken more than 150-170 shots in a season and only members of GST were producing less secondary assists. With the addition of a formidable “1b” line and 3rd line, we could see improvement next season with lighter workload, although the addition of Jokinen may push Little to the secondary power play unit, removing some of the prime offensive minutes.
For C, Little was 42nd in pts, 16th in goals, 58th in assists. For 5v5 */60 with +30 GP he comes 91st in p/60, 38th in g/60, and 93rd for a1/60. Honestly, this guy needs to shoot more. Little's strongest skill isn't in his production but in his ability to improve his teammates with strong defensive and possession game. Also, it has to be noted that there are many players on BEHINDTHENET that are listed as C when they are not (example: Kane) which pushes Little (and all other C's) back.

Wheeler: Who would have guess, a player on the LLW line who is a strong two-way and possession savvy forward. Wheeler plays well with big body and top speed. He’s interestingly type-casted as playmaker, even though he was third for forwards on the team for shots (even had Jokinen been on the team). With 1.00 5v5 A1/60 you can see how he is a strong playmaker though. With having his lowest sh% in his career, he might be entitled to more goals next season and, if Little shoots more, possibly more assists.
For RW, Wheeler was 12th in pts, 44th in goals, 5th in assists. For 5v5 */60 with +30 GP he comes 23rd in p/60, 64th in g/60, and 6th for a1/60. He definitely appears to be one of the top setup men in the league.


Second Line: It will be interesting to see who scores more, which is why I named them more 1a and 1b earlier. If Jokinen swapped centre with Wellwood you’d have almost the exact same line statistically speaking as LLW (LW shooter, C with high sh% that doesn’t shoot, RW who shoots a lot for a playmaker). I can see this line dominating at home games with Noel taking full advantage of the last change up and some prime offensive minutes.

Kane: Does he have an attitude? Maybe. Can he score? 1.26 5v5 G/60 says heck yes. Ironically constantly gets type-casted as one-dimensional, yet he’s statistically proven to elevate the players around him, decently produces A/60 and has historically done well on the penalty kill. The role he plays is the role that has been given to him and he does it well. With Jokinen and some more power play time, Kane may elevate his game to a ~35 goal season.
For LW, Kane was 23rd in pts, 14th in goals, 30th in assists. BEHINDTHENET has Kane as C, the position he was drafted as, so I had to extrapolate: for 5v5 */60 with +30 GP he comes 10th in p/60, 5th in g/60, and 42nd for a1/60. Kane is already an elite scorer and will likely maintain these figures for a while sitting at mid 30s for goals over the next few years.

Jokinen: last year the guy saw the offensive zone face-off circle almost as little as Slater and faced tough competition. Who were the players Jokinen was lined up against the most? Oh, just the Sedins, Kopitar, Datsyuk… Also to note, Iginla without Jokinen created 2/3 less goals than when they were paired together… So much for not complementing a shooter well. For Jokinen’s point production this season will depend if the loss of Iginla can be outweighed by the strength of Kane combined with much easier offensive minutes this year.
For C, Jokinen was 19th in pts, 20th in goals, 19th in assists. For 5v5 */60 with +30 GP he comes 54th in p/60, 43rd in g/60, and 79th for a1/60. You might be wondering, where did all Jokinen's points come from then... the power play. Jokinen has ability to do well consistently on the power play as both on the point or from the half boards. This is why I think he suits best as a 2nd line C with 1st PP time.

Wellwoood: Many are wondering if he can have another career year or if he’ll regress after a year of a sh% well above his career average and the largest A2/60 for the Jets. After watching every one of his goals (no life remember), I noticed that a huge chunk of his goals are dirty rebounds, which means it could be repeatable, especially with Jokinen increasing the shot numbers. Although it’s most likely he won’t have quite the same numbers and Burmistrov pushing him down to the third line, it is still possible that he may repeat last season’s production.
For RW, Wellwood was 34th in pts, 43rd in goals, 26th in assists. For 5v5 */60 with +30 GP he comes 16th in p/60, 43rd in g/60 (tied with Selanne), and 30th for a1/60. While his point totals may go down, I expect another strong year from Wellwood as apparently he is taking this offseason very seriously in getting prepared.


Third line: Personally, this is what I’m most excited for. The line will not be pushing for any scoring records but is a huge upgrade over anything we had in our bottom 6. Heck, 2/3 of the line will be what the Jets had as a second line for a lot of the year. Ponikarovsky has consistently proven his worth as a third line player, while Antropov and Burmistrov were two of the Jets best penalty killers.

Ponikarovsky: Other than one team (LA), Ponikarovsky has had the highest RelCorsi for his team’s forwards and has produced at satisfactory numbers. That is the exact opposite of Glass if you’re wondering. He is a good goal scorer to have on the third line, taking around 150 shots a year as a third liner, and would complement pass-first Antropov and mixed-bag Burmistrov (noticing a pattern in the roles of these lines). If he jumps to form with good chemistry, he may return near to his +1.00 G/60 of 2007-2010.
For LW, Ponikarovsky was 53rd in pts, 57th in goals, 52nd in assists. For 5v5 */60 with +30 GP he comes 66th in p/60, 78th in g/60, and 64th for a1/60. Overall is similar to Ladd, in that he has average production for his lines role but immensely impressive possession stats.

Burmistrov: He improved from 0.42 to 0.60 G/60 and 0.35 to 0.42 A1/60. That’s a jump of 42% in goal scoring alone, larger than either of Kane’s yearly developments. Do I think Burmistrov will surpass Kane in goal scoring, no, but it will hopefully keep people in check when thinking Burmistrov is a lost cause. I can see him getting good chemistry with Ponikarovsky and Antropov, furthering his development to be somewhere between last season’s Little and Antropov (that’s with a very attainable 20% improvement).
For a C his numbers weren't that pretty. He is in the 80s-100s for most, but if he's to improve G/60, A1/60, P/60 by 20% it will put him near par with Little. 20% is very attainable and I can see him thriving on the 3rd line with his high end defensive skills. I just hope he doesn't get type-casted there.

Antropov: Oh if only your contract was the same as Ponikarovsky, not for cap reasons, but so many uneducated Jets' fans would shut their mouths. He’s a good setup man, strong against the boards, strong in-front of the net and complements Burmistrov and Ponikarovsky well. Last season was his second weakest but his worst was the season before. It will be interesting if he continues regressing in the long run or if Winnipeg (with Ponikarovsky) will allow him to plateau in the 1.7-1.8 P/60 range (very formable for third liner).
For RW, Antropov was 48th in pts, 52nd in goals, 46th in assists. For 5v5 */60 with +30 GP he comes 40th in p/60, 42nd in g/60, and 29th for a1/60. What separates Antropov and Wellwood statistically speaking? Secondary assists. Other than that they pretty much produced points at equal rates. As a very underrated setup man (second most A1/60) I could see Antropov also fighting Burmistrov and Wellwood for that 2nd line RW position.


Fourth Line: Which players end up here may depend on Noel’s use of them. Will he give them the former job of GST, or hand that to the new 3rd line, or split it between the two? Personally I’m in favour of the later where the 4th line will take some of the lesser weight like other teams second scoring line.

Slater: The only for sure for the 4th line. He’s a faceoff specialist with probably the best scoring upside of the 4th line candidates, if given competent wingers. With reduced minutes he may see less points but will probably produce at better rates with better line mates and less of a workload.
Miettenin: He’s more known as a finesse/skill player than grit so he isn’t optimal on the 4th line. But if he returns to a more Miettenin of old, he may be a formidable possession player in pushing the play to the other end. It won’t be hard to surpass last season’s production.
Cormier: While he will be a strong candidate for the 4th line, he is the only one still waiver eligible and so I can see TNSE taking full advantage of that. I’m sure we’ll still see him in our line up with injuries.
Machacek: I hope no one thinks 5.57 P/60 is the true Machacek. I think this guy is a strong candidate for the 4th line and has earned his spot on the team, at least as 13th/14th.
Maxwell: See Machacek but instead 3.68 P/60.
Thorburn: I sincerely feel really bad for Atlanta fans. “Welcome to your coaching interview” “Thanks” “OK first question: You’re down by 1 point with 40 seconds to go and pull the goalie. Who is your 6th attacker” “Easy! Thorburn”…. You might be an Atlanta coach. He will never be a scorer, as shown in 2007-2008 when given cushy minutes, but he fills the 4th line role much better than last season.


Last edited by garret9: 08-06-2012 at 04:57 PM.
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08-04-2012, 05:50 PM
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First pairing: I’ve given my thoughts many times on my preference of Byfuglien on the first pairing so I will avoid boring you guys repeating myself. But here’s something new, when looking at the last two seasons the Jets/Thrashers have scored more 5v5 goals/60 while Enstrom-Byfuglien are on the ice and allowed less 5v5 goals/60 than when Enstrom-Bogosian have been on the ice.

Tobias Enstrom: Some people say he's too small and weak; I will just say that it is stupid to think not being physical equates poor defensive play all the time. Those detractors should note that Enstrom was tied for 19th in PTS/GM in the entire NHL last season in defensemen who played at least half a season. He is a player who continually pushes the play forward and is an integral piece to the Winnipeg's transition game. Not to mention, he is a solid counterpart to the shooting gallery that is Dustin Byfuglien. Without major injuries, look for Enstrom to post similar production to his 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 seasons.
I hate how most stat sites don't separate right and left defenceman. For D, Enstrom was 32nd in pts, 44th in goals, and 26th in assists. For 5v5 */60 with +30 GP he comes 32nd in p/60, 60th in g/60, 30th for a1/60, and 69th in a2/60 (arguably secondary assists tend to require less luck for defence than forwards but still vary more than skill). Since this is not looking at either side exclusively, a top pairing fits bellow 60 and not 30; Enstrom was about average for a first pairing D for 5v5 but his points tend to come from the PP so his regular stats got hurt from missed games. His CORSI ON was 14th and his RELCORSI was 4th in the league for D with 30+ games!!
I'm going to add a with/without Enstrom later on in this thread just to show how much Enstrom improves his teammates.

Dustin Byfuglien: While Enstrom was 19th for P/GM, Byfuglien finished ranked 3rd in the league, while laboring through an injury the entire second half of the season. At times, he can get caught over pinching, take overly long shifts, and have difficulty transitioning back into the defensive zone, but many have noted that these defensive gaffs decreased throughout the season and that -- if used effectively -- his offensive upside can outweigh his occasional defensive liabilities. Byfuglien and Enstrom are exactly what any team would want in a first pairing, although their one weakness is their inability to dominate on the penalty kill, but Noel likes to maximize their time on even strength and power play anyways. Without injuries, look for improvement defensively and a similar year offensively from Big Buff (if you can believe it).
For D, Byfuglien was 2nd in pts, 6th in goals, and 3rd in assists. For 5v5 */60 with +30 GP he comes 6th in p/60, 27th in g/60, 29th for a1/60, and 12th in a2/60. Offensively speaking, Byfuglien is a very well rounded defenceman: not relying on goals or assists for points and can produce in the power play and at even strength. It's not hard to believe that both Byfuglien and Enstrom would have produced better had they had more games together (their games missed with injuries were separate).


Second Pairing: Used for more defensive zone starts than the first pairing, I would really prefer to see Hainsey improved upon, whether that is best served by Hainsey’s own development into his new role, Clitsome being developed by Huddy or free-agent/trade will probably best determined through this year.

Ron Hainsey: Like Antropov, yet another player who receives a negative feedback from the uneducated Jets fan due to contract. Hainsey would probably do better on a team where he isn't playing fourth offensive fiddle, though he may be usurped even further by the addition of Paul Postma this year. For next season, his production is really relative to whether he retains second PP unit time or if it's instead granted to Postma although 5v5 wise he has to have better luck than last year (I remember a few posts).
For D, Hainsey had a somewhat unlucky offensive year with no goals; I will show one positive offensive. For 5v5 */60 with +30 GP he came in 48th for a1/60, which is still a first pairing offensive number. He came into his role pretty decently but as I've stated I hope he does get improved upon, even if it is by him improving himself.

Zach Bogosian: Bogosian is one of the few defensemen who doesn't receive a lot of guff from the fans; which is ironic because he received a lot in his final year with the Atlanta Thrashers. Under the guidance of Charlie Huddy, Bogosian has taken a huge step forward to developing into an every-minute defenseman. He has played well in a shutdown role while still being able to produce, ranking 30th league-wide in P/GM compared to Enstrom's 19th and Byfuglien's 3rd. At such a young age, it is tough not to get really excited about this guy. He was also 13th in 5v5 P/60. Look for another step forward from Bogosian in all areas this year.
For D, Bogosian was 32nd in pts, 56th in goals, and 43rd in assists. For 5v5 */60 with +30 GP he comes 12th in p/60, 56th in g/60, 72nd for a1/60, and 9th in a2/60. While lifted by high secondary assists Bogosian still had a strong year. Also keep in mind that as a shutdown pairing D getting mostly defensive zone starts, he needs to push the play forward to get those points.


Third Pairing: This pairing will probably consist of Stuart on the left side with Clitsome and Postma being switched in-and-out as Huddy guides them to becoming a better well-rounded defenseman. They will received sheltered minutes and maybe some second pairing power play and penalty killing time.

Mark Stuart: Stuart can best be described as the GST line, only on defense. He regularly hits opponents with anger, fights with a vendetta, and blocks shots without any care to his personal well-being. He has a lot of heart, to be sure. Unfortunately, Stuart cannot match the skill set of all previously named defensemen. I have a feeling his contract was the largest reason Artus Kulda wasn't given a one-way contract similar to Postma's, since Kulda could have been that second pairing lefty PK specialist we are looking for (emphasis on could). I think he may improve over last year without GST pulling him down and probably a better forward tandem for the penalty kill, but the question remains by how much.
Paul Postma: I only got to observe Postma in 2 of his 3 Jets games and most of the St. John's IceCaps post-season. So, I’ll just summarize what I’ve read in multiple areas: Paul Postma is wonderful offensively on the power play as well as 5v5 situations, and probably more so than a lot of NHL defenseman. He skates well for his height although this is relative to AHL players and not NHL players. His defensive abilities -- long thought to be his largest weakness -- have improved and although they are no longer his largest weakness, have still be an issue (hopefully Huddy will be able to fix this). Supposedly, his largest weakness now seems to be his consistency and mental game. Don't know what to look for in Postma other than some power play points. I think we will find him to be an upgrade on Jones and Flood though if sheltered appropriately. With both Redmond and Trouba developing well as high-end righty’s he may be our most-disposable-while-still-valuable trade chip.
Grant Clitsome: The sample size I saw was smaller than that of even Postma. I can see him trading off with Postma and Stuart for third pairing minutes as Noel finds which ones fit best with his system and usage. Again, I'm not sure what to look for in Clitsome either, but again I think he and Postma will be an upgrade to Randy Jones and Mark Flood. Clitsome has proven worthy for 5v5 point production (83rd last season for NHL defenseman… Lidstrom was 79th) and power play if given the opportunity. If he can be developed defensively under Huddy he could surprise as Hainsey’s replacement and be a good pairing for Bogosian… but that is a strong hope.


Last edited by garret9: 08-06-2012 at 01:54 PM.
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08-04-2012, 06:02 PM
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Hank Chinaski
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Great work garret9, nice analysis!

We actually put together a dedicated statistical analysis thread a couple of months ago, but I'll let this stand as its own dedicated thread for awhile. As it drops off the first page, I'll add it to the reference thread.

Here's the link to that thread, FYI.

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08-04-2012, 06:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
Great work garret9, nice analysis!

We actually put together a dedicated statistical analysis thread a couple of months ago, but I'll let this stand as its own dedicated thread for awhile. As it drops off the first page, I'll add it to the reference thread.

Here's the link to that thread, FYI.
dang I forgot about that thread...
Ohh well...
Feel free to add your own thoughts on top of this

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08-04-2012, 06:09 PM
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Amazing work Garret9!

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08-04-2012, 10:14 PM
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Sweech
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Ponikarovsky looks crazy good in advanced statistics.

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08-04-2012, 10:16 PM
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The other weird thing is that the tables don't sort negatives well.

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08-04-2012, 10:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Sweech View Post
The other weird thing is that the tables don't sort negatives well.
Ya it's really weird. Keep pressing the sort button and it seems to fix itself.

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08-05-2012, 01:08 AM
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The projected line up is exactly the way I want it. Everything from Burmistrov centering the third line with Poni and Antro to Postma slotting in as the #6 defenseman instead of Clitsome.

In terms of our overall roster, I think we have two general areas of concern: 1) which of Cormier/Machacek or Miettinen/Thorburn should be Slater's wingers and 2) what do we do if Montoya struggles. For the former, Cormier and Machacek have proven they can play in the NHL and have earned their ice time, but Miettinen and Thorburn are more proven and are respected veterans. For the latter, with Pasquale and Dekanich on the farm, it's not like we could sign/claim a goalie during the first week and send Montoya to St. John's.

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08-05-2012, 03:24 AM
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The projected line up is exactly the way I want it. Everything from Burmistrov centering the third line with Poni and Antro to Postma slotting in as the #6 defenseman instead of Clitsome.

In terms of our overall roster, I think we have two general areas of concern: 1) which of Cormier/Machacek or Miettinen/Thorburn should be Slater's wingers and 2) what do we do if Montoya struggles. For the former, Cormier and Machacek have proven they can play in the NHL and have earned their ice time, but Miettinen and Thorburn are more proven and are respected veterans. For the latter, with Pasquale and Dekanich on the farm, it's not like we could sign/claim a goalie during the first week and send Montoya to St. John's.
Re: 4th line.
The outcome of the 4th line is quite variable and depends on quite a few things
  • 4th lines main roles/goals (shutdown, possession, energy, grit, or line to take advantage of other 4th lines)
  • performance in training camp and pre-season
  • amount of Dman we keep up (if only 7 than we can have a 14th forward for example)
  • our internal financial cap
  • waiverability (Cormier can still go down without passing through waivers)
Most likely the role will be for grit/energy so I can see it being Machacek-Slater-Thorburn with either or both Maxwell and Miettenin being 13th and 14th. Also, don't forget we may pick up a gritty LW that falls through waivers as teams make their late cuts in the start of the season.

Re: Goaltending
I can see the possibility of problems occurring out of our current set-up. Right now we basically have four goaltenders who are more potential than they are proven.
  • I won't go into Pavelec because we've all discussed this as much as needed currently. The scouts from the Goalie Guild seem to be high on and expect him to come around so I can only hope
  • Montoya was drafted with high expectations, never did amazing in the AHL, had strong short stints in the NHL but than dropped partway through last season after getting hit in the head (by Kane)
  • Dekanich has been a top/solid AHL goaltender and has been in the top 30s for the Goalie Guild's radar for prospects pretty regularly. Hopefully he returns back in good form with injury recovery
  • Pasquale did well but not exceptionally so. This may be due to his youth
Ironically Montoya's "career" SV% is equal to Pavelec's SV% last season and only one percent lower than Pavelec's career. I can see equal possibilities of Montoya outperforming Pavelec or doing terrible. If the concussion injury becomes a concern and he fails, since he is only on a one year contract, he can be thrown through waivers to the AHL. If no one bites he can back up Pasq when we pull up Dex.
Note: not sure if Dex and Montoya has to go through waivers.

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08-05-2012, 03:41 AM
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Now for Pavelec
I'll do some more in-depth stuff here later but here's some surface level stuff.

MonthSV% GP Wins Loses OTL Win% SA SA/gm
October 0.885 09 03 04 01 33.33 252 28.00
November 0.904 12 04 05 03 33.33 375 31.25
December 0.939 11 07 03 01 63.64 343 31.18
January 0.908 10 03 05 01 30.00 273 27.30
February 0.903 11 06 04 01 54.55 339 30.82
March 0.900 13 05 07 01 38.46 391 30.08
April 0.873 02 01 00 01 50.00 63 31.50
LeagueAvg 0.914 58 28.24
NB: League Average is from combination of the 32 goalies to play 40+ games

Placement in League Relative to the 32 40+ GP Goalies
NameSV% GP SA/60 GA/60
Pavs 27 07 07 08

Few things I noted from looking over the last two seasons:
  • Pavelec doesn't historically do as well on back-to-backs
  • Pavelec doesn't historically do as well on weekends
  • Pavelec doesn't historically do as well on away games
  • Our great December record appears to be strongly influenced by Pavelec playing superiorly for a month

Some things to keep in mind when saying it was the Jets defense that caused his low SV%:
  • Pavelec posted stronger numbers his last season as a Tharshers under a team that was weaker
  • That Thrashers team top 6 defense for TOI was the same as last years but still the Jets team had lower shots against (improvement from one of the worst teams in the league)
  • That top6 still had pinch crazy Byfuglien as their number 1 TOI guy (who if anything was more wild in a run&gun system)
  • Noel played under a more defensive system than Pavelec had played before
  • It's also been shown that the location of shots Pav recieves from doesn't varry from the normal
  • There are teams, far worse than us, with worse defense that have goalies that posted way superior SV%

So, if the Jets did better and Pavs' stats are worse can they be entirely the defense fault?? In my opinion I think that GST playing 3rd line shutdown, lack of depth and playing Pavs more also had parts to play. But let's be honest, he isn't elite talent yet... We all hope he can be though. The goalie guild says this:
Quote:
I think Ondrej Pavelec is on the brink of becoming an elite talent, and I think over the next 12 months, he’ll ultimately reach that point
Unfortunately, I have found projects that interest me a little more than breaking down Pavelec. So, I will finish off with saying this: I think Pavs can really be a top 5-10 starter if he puts it together but it currently is a big IF. His consistency, positioning and conditioning are large issues that need to be resolved if this core is ever going to be a contender.

Some statistical breakdown of Pavelec has been done before me:
AIH breakdown of Pavelec looking at where his shots against occurred
AIH breakdown on how Pavelec was not let down by his team


Last edited by garret9: 08-09-2012 at 05:28 PM.
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08-05-2012, 06:46 AM
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garret this was excellant reading. I learned allot and am very grateful you took the time to share this information with us.

I have been very tough on Buff but enjoy it when the statistical story can serve as a cautionary tale to my hair pulling out frustration as my mind congers up the image of a fat, gassed player waddling (if he didn't have skates on) back slowly as Toby was left hung out to dry on a 1v2.

The stats tell a more balanced story. I will never let him off the hook for being out of shape because it is my less the humble opinion "all boats would rise if Buff brought a fit version of himself to camp" BUT I was the first guy back on his bandwagon when he tweaked his game and started getting better at picking his spots on the pinch.

I have never denied he is one of the more gifted offensive defensman that i have seen and he certainly has the ability to torment other teams when he gets on a roll with his puck possession skills in the O zone or jumps into a rush. I am guessing he could keep both teams coaching staffs up at night.

maybe I just need to personally adjust at taking the good with the bad on a player of this style and physical profile.....it's not you Buff it's me

Note to self ps241....please look at advanced stats before screaming at Buff!

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08-05-2012, 07:45 AM
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garret this was excellant reading. I learned allot and am very grateful you took the time to share this information with us.

I have been very tough on Buff but enjoy it when the statistical story can serve as a cautionary tale to my hair pulling out frustration as my mind congers up the image of a fat, gassed player waddling (if he didn't have skates on) back slowly as Toby was left hung out to dry on a 1v2.

The stats tell a more balanced story. I will never let him off the hook for being out of shape because it is my less the humble opinion "all boats would rise if Buff brought a fit version of himself to camp" BUT I was the first guy back on his bandwagon when he tweaked his game and started getting better at picking his spots on the pinch.

I have never denied he is one of the more gifted offensive defensman that i have seen and he certainly has the ability to torment other teams when he gets on a roll with his puck possession skills in the O zone or jumps into a rush. I am guessing he could keep both teams coaching staffs up at night.

maybe I just need to personally adjust at taking the good with the bad on a player of this style and physical profile.....it's not you Buff it's me

Note to self ps241....please look at advanced stats before screaming at Buff!
No... It's not all you. Buff does need to be way more careful/smarter than he used to be. It would help to if our forwards were a lot better at covering for them too.

I saw quite often where Buff would lead up the play so Ladd or Wellwood or Stapleton or whoever would stay back only to pinch themselves at the worst moment and then it be a 3 or 2 on Toby.
Sigh... It frustrates me too don't worry.

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08-05-2012, 10:58 AM
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Great work Garret9. That's the lineup I was hoping for as well. In regards to Cormier, I believe he should play in St. John's this year due to the fact he can't be claimed on waivers. He also only averaged 6 min a game up here. I would rather he play 15-18 min on the rock than sit on the bench up here. The kid needs to play.

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08-05-2012, 12:15 PM
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
No... It's not all you. Buff does need to be way more careful/smarter than he used to be. It would help to if our forwards were a lot better at covering for them too.

I saw quite often where Buff would lead up the play so Ladd or Wellwood or Stapleton or whoever would stay back only to pinch themselves at the worst moment and then it be a 3 or 2 on Toby.
Sigh... It frustrates me too don't worry.
Yeah, a lot of people forget it's not just Buff. The forwards are responsible for covering and sometimes blow it.

The good news is that near the end of the season it seemed like everyone was "getting it" a little more. Buff was being a little more responsible and forwards were paying attention to coverage.

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08-05-2012, 12:40 PM
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I echo the sentiments of the others in thanking you, Garret. And there are many more lurking who are also grateful, no doubt. I just skimmed the surface, but will come back to this info when I have time.
Just a few comments:
-I have expressed my views about the defence/pairings on other threads, particularly with respect to the pros and cons of Enstrom/Buff, but you have backed your views up with better stats (on the other hand, I DO have a life) We'll see how things shake out, but I'd gladly give up some offensive productivity from our D to get our GA down.
-I support giving Postma a real chance as our sixth D and have elaborated on that in another thread. Hainsey and Stewart's defensive orientation will ever more important with 4 offensively oriented Ds.
-The consensus seems to be that Machacek's late season offensive spurt was a fluke, but I believe he has earned the right to play regularly and not purely in a defensive role. So, I would propose that the 4th line consist of him, along with Slater and Mitts. Mitts showed some chemistry with Machacek as both blossomed late in the season. I would propose that this trio, if given the opportunity to show energy and defensive talent (4th line and PK) would rise to the challenge and score a few points as well.


Last edited by scelaton: 08-05-2012 at 02:36 PM. Reason: PK, not PP
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08-05-2012, 03:15 PM
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I echo the sentiments of the others in thanking you, Garret. And there are many more lurking who are also grateful, no doubt. I just skimmed the surface, but will come back to this info when I have time.
Just a few comments:
-I have expressed my views about the defence/pairings on other threads, particularly with respect to the pros and cons of Enstrom/Buff, but you have backed your views up with better stats (on the other hand, I DO have a life) We'll see how things shake out, but I'd gladly give up some offensive productivity from our D to get our GA down.
-I support giving Postma a real chance as our sixth D and have elaborated on that in another thread. Hainsey and Stewart's defensive orientation will ever more important with 4 offensively oriented Ds.
-The consensus seems to be that Machacek's late season offensive spurt was a fluke, but I believe he has earned the right to play regularly and not purely in a defensive role. So, I would propose that the 4th line consist of him, along with Slater and Mitts. Mitts showed some chemistry with Machacek as both blossomed late in the season. I would propose that this trio, if given the opportunity to show energy and defensive talent (4th line and PK) would rise to the challenge and score a few points as well.
Re: D pairings
Time will tell. I do not doubt that one day Bogo will pass Buff, we all just differ on the when. You say now; I say future (but I didn't say how long of future )

Re: Postma as 6th
Agreed. Although I'm guessing without stats, I think we'll see a better Stuart staying on the on sheltered third pairing and with PK being with Slater and one of Burmi/Antro/Poni as opposed to Slater and Glass. Also, being a shutdown D is new to Hainsey so he may even improve there; I do think that having offensive skill creates solid defense as you can push the play forward and out of your zone (does anyone remember when the Sedins were considered good PK'ers... as much as I lothe them)

Re: 4th line
I could definately see that working, much like my comment above about solid defense from offence. In fact I would prefer Mittens>Mach>Thor but I just have this feeling that Thor will be cemented into that 4th line until his contract is up and then Mach is a better fit with Thor than Mittens would be.

PS Thanks

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08-05-2012, 04:49 PM
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I like the effort in this thread, and everybody else who has kicked in ideas about line combos.

But let's see training camp and exhibition games. There are always a few jobs at stake. Some players will be one year better while others will simply be one year older.

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08-05-2012, 06:33 PM
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Fantastic work. What a great read. Thanks garret.

Any chance of you cramming a year's worth of work into what's left of the summer so you can take Oct thru May off and just run stats for us?

Notice how I said "thru May" there? Eternal optimist, that's me.

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08-05-2012, 09:24 PM
  #25
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Thanks for the analysis, garret! I'm a newer hockey fan still trying to get my head around these advanced statistics, so it's great to read things like this. I could ask several questions, but one I have is why do the corsion stats have decimal numbers? I thought Corsi (is that the same as corsion?) was simply plus/minus in all shots, and thus whole numbers. Or is it a ratio? Does 20 shots for, 4 against = +16 or 5.0?

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