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The case for a 1-year surgical tank for the Habs

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Old
08-05-2012, 10:37 AM
  #576
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BTW Gionta would net a 1st rounder + without question. Although I think he can be an important contributor moving forward. If the right package was offered up, I would do it, but I wouldn't move him for a 2nd rounder. That's the one disagreement I have with DAchampion. If you trade all your most established players, you end like Columbus or Edmonton, we don't want that.

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08-05-2012, 10:48 AM
  #577
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Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
Suggesting that Gionta could be traded for a #1 is either dishonest or harebrained. If you must concoct a scenario, at least make it plausible.
In recent years, Gaustad (+4th), Kaberle, Penner and Quincey have been the centrepieces of February or deadline trades for 1st rounders. Yes, Brian Gionta could fetch one too. Some GM's with contender-aspirations do stupid things, every year.

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08-05-2012, 11:05 AM
  #578
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Originally Posted by Deaner View Post
In recent years, Gaustad (+4th), Kaberle, Penner and Quincey have been the centrepieces of February or deadline trades for 1st rounders. Yes, Brian Gionta could fetch one too. Some GM's with contender-aspirations do stupid things, every year.
The likelihood is so small that it would be prudent to disregard it.

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08-05-2012, 11:30 AM
  #579
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Originally Posted by habsfanatics View Post
BTW Gionta would net a 1st rounder + without question. Although I think he can be an important contributor moving forward. If the right package was offered up, I would do it, but I wouldn't move him for a 2nd rounder. That's the one disagreement I have with DAchampion. If you trade all your most established players, you end like Columbus or Edmonton, we don't want that.
If hypothetically we were to trade each of Plekanec, Markov, Gionta, Cole, Bourque, Gomez, Kaberle, then we would end up like Columbus and Edmonton; even if each individual trade was a win the total outcome would be a loss.

There will be difficult decisions for Bergevin at the deadline. He can't trade all the vets, but he'll have to trade some if we are to be a good team moving forward. It will be a complex multivariable optimization problem :-) He'll have to weigh the potential gains in cap space, draft picks, prospects versus losses in production moving forward.

FWIW, I would rather trade Desharnais for a 2nd than Plekanec for a 1st.

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08-05-2012, 11:32 AM
  #580
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Originally Posted by habsfanatics View Post
It's apparent you never even read the OP. Are you easily impressed by headlines? The OP on numerous occasions has stated that he doesn't expect the team to lose on purpose, only that as we stand now with no other moves it's the most likely outcome. Hard to disagree with him. We were bad with Cammy/AK last year and replaced them with Bourque, who is a downgrade to both imo.

If the general comes back to form then all is forgotten, but that's a big if, the OPer even stated this is how he evaluates the club right now at face value and conceded that he may be off the mark. Instead of attacking to attack, why don't you read what he has posted.

Losing on purpose is for losers, everyone agrees and no one suggested otherwise.

Sure Kaberle/Bourque/Gomez may have negative value, but removing them any way possible is a win and most likely the ripple effects will be the team continues to slide, but it's better for the long term to get rid of these types of players. The OP even offered up a way to hopefully maximize their value by putting them in favorable positions, through icetime/opposition ect. I think he's on the mark.
Admittedly I haven't read much of his inane rambling. I guess it's not a thread about getting rid of KGB, everybody would agree to that but it would likely cost us assets to trade them to begin with.

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08-05-2012, 11:32 AM
  #581
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Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
Well, insane is a strong word, but idée fixe comes to mind. Don't worry, his surgical tanking dissertation won't earn him a PhD, not even in North Korea, Gad, the miles of words in this thread!
My PhD is in astrophysics.

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08-05-2012, 11:33 AM
  #582
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
My PhD is in astrophysics.
My PhD is in Thuganomics.

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08-05-2012, 11:37 AM
  #583
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Originally Posted by Habtacular View Post
Again, the only reason this thread has lasted so long is because of your constant redefinition of the word 'tanking' and frankly bizarre use of the word 'surgical' leading people to assume you are advocating somekind of deliberate action taken now to lose throughout the season when actually mostly you are just advocating perfectly normal GM asset management.
You have major deficiencies in reading comprehension.

The "deliberate action taken now to lose" was made by Bergevin. He's entering the season with a weak roster. If he pulls off a major trade I'll retract these comments. As it stands, the opportunity to be a bubble team this year passed us by when he refused to give Semin the little contract he wanted (1 year 7 million).

There's no such thing as "normal GM asset management" as different GMs take on different strategies even in similar situations.

Say, what do you think of the Florida Panthers a few years back losing Jay Bouwmeester for nothing? They wanted to "make the playoffs" where they would have inevitably lost in the first round. They didn't make the playoffs and turned down major gold for Bouwmeester. I think they got a 6th rounder for his negotiating rights or something. See, different GMs take on different strategies. I would advocate trading for Bouwmeester in that scenarios, whereas others, even professional GMs, advocating struggling for 8th place.

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08-05-2012, 11:42 AM
  #584
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
You have major deficiencies in reading comprehension.

The "deliberate action taken now to lose" was made by Bergevin. He's entering the season with a weak roster. If he pulls off a major trade I'll retract these comments. As it stands, the opportunity to be a bubble team this year passed us by when he refused to give Semin the little contract he wanted (1 year 7 million).

There's no such thing as "normal GM asset management" as different GMs take on different strategies even in similar situations.

Say, what do you think of the Florida Panthers a few years back losing Jay Bouwmeester for nothing? They wanted to "make the playoffs" where they would have inevitably lost in the first round. They didn't make the playoffs and turned down major gold for Bouwmeester. I think they got a 6th rounder for his negotiating rights or something. See, different GMs take on different strategies. I would advocate trading for Bouwmeester in that scenarios, whereas others, even professional GMs, advocating struggling for 8th place.
We have no impending UFA of significant value, Hawking.

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08-05-2012, 11:46 AM
  #585
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We have no impending UFA of significant value, Hawking.
Your point has already been rebutted.

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08-05-2012, 11:48 AM
  #586
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...? As someone who has created a thread that is already a habs board meme I don't think you're in too great of a position to judge that.

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08-05-2012, 12:02 PM
  #587
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Originally Posted by Vsevolod Bobrov View Post
...? As someone who has created a thread that is already a habs board meme I don't think you're in too great of a position to judge that.
Your memes are relevant to your memes. Congratulations on your successful thread, but this is a separate discussion and you've admitted you have not bothered to read it.

In this case. you're assuming the deadline is all about impending UFA, but that's been shown to be false. Imepdning UFA dominate the market but a lot of non-UFA players get traded as well.

This year we saw Marek Zidlicky, Antoine Vermette, Jeff Carter, Kyle Quincey (impending RFA), moved at or near the deadline. At the 2011 deadline, Dustin Penner, Dennis Wideman, Francois Beauchemin were moved, among other examples.

Vermette, Penner, and Zidlicky are arguably the ones most relevant to the Habs. Mediocre players on problematic contracts were moved for futures.

ETA: Cammalleri for Bourque did not involve UFAs and was a month or so before the deadline.


Last edited by DAChampion: 08-05-2012 at 12:11 PM.
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08-05-2012, 12:27 PM
  #588
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
My PhD is in astrophysics.
Extraterrestrial, no doubt.

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08-05-2012, 12:50 PM
  #589
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
My PhD is in astrophysics.
No wonder you like to theorize and jump to conclusions so much.

This whole thread sounds a whole lot like a bunch of cosmologists arguing over their many competing and unproven theories.

Tanking is actually very similar to the theorized Higgs field, you know it's there, but you just cant quite put your finger on it, so to speak

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08-05-2012, 01:01 PM
  #590
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No wonder you like to theorize and jump to conclusions so much.

This whole thread sounds a whole lot like a bunch of cosmologists arguing over their many competing and unproven theories.
I don't see any problem with making projections. The very purpose of this entire forum is to discuss projections of individual prospects throughout the NHL, which is certainly much harder to do than to project entire rosters a single season into the future.

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Tanking is actually very similar to the theorized Higgs field, you know it's there, but you just cant quite put your finger on it, so to speak

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08-05-2012, 01:04 PM
  #591
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Only 411 more to go. Trying to make NHL history.

Go Habs Go!!!!

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08-05-2012, 01:10 PM
  #592
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Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
No wonder you like to theorize and jump to conclusions so much.

This whole thread sounds a whole lot like a bunch of cosmologists arguing over their many competing and unproven theories.

Tanking is actually very similar to the theorized Higgs field, you know it's there, but you just cant quite put your finger on it, so to speak
While simultaneously debating whether the earth is flat or not.

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08-05-2012, 01:13 PM
  #593
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Oh come on, at least admit it was kinda funny.

I understand your point bout projections, but many of your conclusions are overlooking many important factors, which i find ironic coming from someone with a background in astrophysics. Or actually, that's quite typical.

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08-05-2012, 01:14 PM
  #594
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
The "deliberate action taken now to lose" was made by Bergevin. He's entering the season with a weak roster. If he pulls off a major trade I'll retract these comments. As it stands, the opportunity to be a bubble team this year passed us by when he refused to give Semin the little contract he wanted (1 year 7 million).
If Bergevin were making a deliberate action" to lose, why did he go out and sign Prust, Armstrong, and Bouillon and also re-sign Moen? Wouldn't the Habs chances of losing increase by playing kids from the AHL?

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08-05-2012, 01:18 PM
  #595
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Oh come on, at least admit it was kinda funny.

I understand your point bout projections, but many of your conclusions are overlooking many important factors, which i find ironic coming from someone with a background in astrophysics. Or actually, that's quite typical.
I do think it was kind of funny.

I'm not overlooking many factors. I have overlooked some and I've tried my best to diligently respond to every intelligent counterargument posted in this thread.

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08-05-2012, 01:20 PM
  #596
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
If hypothetically we were to trade each of Plekanec, Markov, Gionta, Cole, Bourque, Gomez, Kaberle, then we would end up like Columbus and Edmonton; even if each individual trade was a win the total outcome would be a loss.

There will be difficult decisions for Bergevin at the deadline. He can't trade all the vets, but he'll have to trade some if we are to be a good team moving forward. It will be a complex multivariable optimization problem :-) He'll have to weigh the potential gains in cap space, draft picks, prospects versus losses in production moving forward.

FWIW, I would rather trade Desharnais for a 2nd than Plekanec for a 1st.
You're missing variables. There's a chance your strategy backfires.

I'd rather have my team grow toghether in a winning environment. You're playing with fire. If Bergevin adopts your plan, a couple of the guys we want to keep might want out and we lose the chance to sign a big UFA next season too because nobody likes playing on a loosing team and the UFAs want something proven.

We already have great prospects coming along and a competitive team. Why ruin it playing dices at the casino ? It could spiral us down to hell.

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08-05-2012, 01:25 PM
  #597
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Originally Posted by CTHabsfan View Post
If Bergevin were making a deliberate action" to lose, why did he go out and sign Prust, Armstrong, and Bouillon and also re-sign Moen? Wouldn't the Habs chances of losing increase by playing kids from the AHL?
Regarding Prust and Moen, see posts #536 and #540, on page 22.

Bouillon was signed because they needed an additional defenseman to fill out the roster. In recent years, the Habs have frequently had to dish out draft picks throughout the year once the inevitable injuries happen. It has been my opinion for some time, and probably the opinion of many others, that it's probably better to just start the season with 8 dmen, to avoid that problem. I can't tell you why they picked Bouillon over all the other choices available, though I think he's a fine choice.

I'm not sure about Armstrong, but he could be a reclamation project. He was once a decent player, under Michel Therrien. However in the past year or two he was so bad that even Toronto, the 5th worst team in the league, didn't want him and bought him out. Sometimes these players are bad forever, and then we lose 1 year and 1 million, so it doesn't matter. Sometimes these players rebound, and then we would have first dibbs on keeping Armstrong. That sounds like a legitimate gamble to me -- why not do it?

*******

The "kids from the AHL" should be allowed to develop properly in a winning environment, in Hamilton. See my OP on the 1st page. I think Tinordi, Beaulieu, Holland, etc are going to give us a lot of improvement in the near future.

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08-05-2012, 01:26 PM
  #598
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Originally Posted by Ozymandias View Post
No wonder you like to theorize and jump to conclusions so much.

This whole thread sounds a whole lot like a bunch of cosmologists arguing over their many competing and unproven theories.

Tanking is actually very similar to the theorized Higgs field, you know it's there, but you just cant quite put your finger on it, so to speak
thats cause tanking doesnt exist.dachamp is rambling on and on about things that do not happen.lol.i'd like to hear his opinoin on the multiverse theory.since he's so smart i'm sure he could break it down for us.

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08-05-2012, 01:34 PM
  #599
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You're missing variables. There's a chance your strategy backfires.

I'd rather have my team grow toghether in a winning environment. You're playing with fire. If Bergevin adopts your plan, a couple of the guys we want to keep might want out and we lose the chance to sign a big UFA next season too because nobody likes playing on a loosing team and the UFAs want something proven.

We already have great prospects coming along and a competitive team. Why ruin it playing dices at the casino ? It could spiral us down to hell.
I don't support getting rid of all the vets -- I just said in the post you quoted that would turn us into Columbus !!! I support getting rid of some of the vets. It depends on the relative trade values, relative cap space values, positional depth, etc.

We're going to have to do it anyway moving forward as we have a lot of good youth in the system that will soon challenge for spots. I don't see any young player challenging this year, but for the 2013-2014 season we could have as many as 2 or 3 of: Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Leblanc, Beaulieu, Tinordi, Ellis, getting roster spots at the start of the season. A plausible outcome is clear out 3 vets, sign one top-tier UFA next summer, and bring in 2 rookies next year.

Regarding UFA, I support swinging for the fences. If you can't get a great player, keep the cap space and try again next year rather than signing a mediocre player to an expensive long-term contract. I don't believe that no great UFA would ever come to Montreal. We got 1st pairing dman Roman Hamrlik. We got Michael Cammalleri and Erik Cole, two guys that are 1st liners on several teams in the league and 2nd liners on the rest.

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08-05-2012, 02:11 PM
  #600
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I don't support getting rid of all the vets -- I just said in the post you quoted that would turn us into Columbus !!! I support getting rid of some of the vets. It depends on the relative trade values, relative cap space values, positional depth, etc.

We're going to have to do it anyway moving forward as we have a lot of good youth in the system that will soon challenge for spots. I don't see any young player challenging this year, but for the 2013-2014 season we could have as many as 2 or 3 of: Galchenyuk, Gallagher, Leblanc, Beaulieu, Tinordi, Ellis, getting roster spots at the start of the season. A plausible outcome is clear out 3 vets, sign one top-tier UFA next summer, and bring in 2 rookies next year.

Regarding UFA, I support swinging for the fences. If you can't get a great player, keep the cap space and try again next year rather than signing a mediocre player to an expensive long-term contract. I don't believe that no great UFA would ever come to Montreal. We got 1st pairing dman Roman Hamrlik. We got Michael Cammalleri and Erik Cole, two guys that are 1st liners on several teams in the league and 2nd liners on the rest.
You don't get to know if we make the playoffs until the deadline, at the very least. Of course ship Bourque away if we're out. But we have a better team you think. Who will be on the rebound.

About the prospects, it's inevitable, they'll make the AHL-NHL shuffle to replace injuried players. That's what I'm talking about when I say that we should bring them in a winning attitude.

You said since Bergevin didn't sign Semin you wish we tank. Bergevin is keeping his options open. His strategy will be called "improving the team". One move at the time.

Of course if we're last at the deadline you trade a bunch of vets, but really, you have to be a born pessimist to think it's a certainty.

All our returning players are hungry. We have a bunch of vets back. Galchenyuk might make the team. Etc. Etc.

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