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Sean Couturier for Oliver Ekman-Larsson

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08-06-2012, 08:47 PM
  #26
Adam Warlock
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Young defensemen are incredibly over-hyped and prove to be pretty inconsistent.

I remember when Dion Phanuef was regarded as untouchable and a future Norris winner. Not saying hes not a fine dman, but I dont think he panned out the way people thought he would.

Schenn is another example. One year he was untouchable, the next he was in every trade proposal.

Not saying OEL wont be a top dman in the league, he certainly has the potential...but Couts also has tremendous potential and is more likely to achieve it because he is a forward.

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08-06-2012, 09:02 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Mota View Post
Young defensemen are incredibly over-hyped and prove to be pretty inconsistent.

I remember when Dion Phanuef was regarded as untouchable and a future Norris winner. Not saying hes not a fine dman, but I dont think he panned out the way people thought he would.

Schenn is another example. One year he was untouchable, the next he was in every trade proposal.

Not saying OEL wont be a top dman in the league, he certainly has the potential...but Couts also has tremendous potential and is more likely to achieve it because he is a forward.
Phaneuf, Schenn, Bouwmeester, E. Johnson, J. Johnson, Pitkanen, Coburn, Mezaros, Myers, Sbisa, Green, Burns, and the list goes on and on with young defenseman that were over-hyped and are just now becoming a fraction of what they were supposed to be. My favorite are the people that are already comparing OEL to Lidstrom. I understand why Phoenix fans are so high on him, but Couturier is much more likely to become an elite two-way center than OEL is to becoming a perennial Norris candidate.

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08-06-2012, 09:13 PM
  #28
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Why is Couturier more likely?

There are tons of forwards who didn't pan out or under achieved also. That list of under achieving defensemen doesn't really mean squat. It seems like people on this board just don't want to face the obvious...OEL was a #1 defenseman in the play offs last year for a team that went to the conference finals. He's shouldered a bigger load than Couturier and has proven himself able to perform well. He's already closer to achieving his potential than Couturier is (which makes sense, given his longer time in the league).

People who think that this is a fair one-for-one swap for Phoenix are kidding themselves. It could work as the basis for a trade with us adding...but as is, it's pretty unfair.

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08-06-2012, 09:22 PM
  #29
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Originally Posted by Giroux tha Damaja View Post
Why is Couturier more likely?

There are tons of forwards who didn't pan out or under achieved also. That list of under achieving defensemen doesn't really mean squat. It seems like people on this board just don't want to face the obvious...OEL was a #1 defenseman in the play offs last year for a team that went to the conference finals. He's shouldered a bigger load than Couturier and has proven himself able to perform well. He's already closer to achieving his potential than Couturier is (which makes sense, given his longer time in the league).

People who think that this is a fair one-for-one swap for Phoenix are kidding themselves. It could work as the basis for a trade with us adding...but as is, it's pretty unfair.
OEL also plays on a team with a very defensive minded system. Couturier shut down the leading point getter in the NHL in a completely open series...and he did it his rookie year. He is only going to get stronger and smarter, so his defensive game isnt going anywhere. His ability to shut down Malkin alone makes him incredibly valuable for the Flyers, who play the Pens 6 times a year. It is too soon to tell what his offensive game will develop into, but the potential for him to become a 70 point guy who can shutdown the opponents best player is there...those players are incredibly rare.

I am not saying OEL has no value, I just dont think hes worth giving up a player like Couts for.

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08-06-2012, 09:27 PM
  #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mota View Post
OEL also plays on a team with a very defensive minded system. Couturier shut down the leading point getter in the NHL in a completely open series...and he did it his rookie year. He is only going to get stronger and smarter, so his defensive game isnt going anywhere. His ability to shut down Malkin alone makes him incredibly valuable for the Flyers, who play the Pens 6 times a year. It is too soon to tell what his offensive game will develop into, but the potential for him to become a 70 point guy who can shutdown the opponents best player is there...those players are incredibly rare.

I am not saying OEL has no value, I just dont think hes worth giving up a player like Couts for.
I think the majority of knowledgable, objective hockey fans would disagree with you.

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08-06-2012, 09:30 PM
  #31
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Originally Posted by Giroux tha Damaja View Post
Why is Couturier more likely?

There are tons of forwards who didn't pan out or under achieved also. That list of under achieving defensemen doesn't really mean squat. It seems like people on this board just don't want to face the obvious...OEL was a #1 defenseman in the play offs last year for a team that went to the conference finals. He's shouldered a bigger load than Couturier and has proven himself able to perform well. He's already closer to achieving his potential than Couturier is (which makes sense, given his longer time in the league).

People who think that this is a fair one-for-one swap for Phoenix are kidding themselves. It could work as the basis for a trade with us adding...but as is, it's pretty unfair.
I never said a one for one trade wasn't fair. I also think we would have to add, but it is a little ridiculous to see Phoenix fans demand Schenn and Couturier and picks. OEL is a good young player, and he is on his way to becoming a number one defenseman, but Couturier has a ceiling that's just as high.

OEL also plays in a system that is about as beneficial to defensemen and goalies as you're going to get. Tippet's system makes Hitchcock look like he's playing pond hockey.

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08-06-2012, 09:56 PM
  #32
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I really think the Couturier hype is beginning to get out of hand.

Does he have the potential to be a 70 point Selke winner? Sure. But last season he was a 27 point shutdown center. Extremely impressive, but he still has a lot of development left before he reaches the hype.


The difference with OEL? Well, Ekman-Larsson actually was a #1 defender last season. Even if OEL plateaus, he will still be one of the better defenders in the entire NHL, and he still has room to grow as a player.


There's no doubt in my mind that OEL holds more value around the league than Couturier does. That doesnt mean that we should pull the trigger on an OEL for Couturier trade if it were offered. It just means that OEL has an equally impressive ceiling while having proved more at the NHL level than Couturier. Couturier is untouchable, as he should be, but that doesnt mean anything more than the fact that he holds more value to us than he would return in a trade.


I hope Flyers fans dont actually believe that Couturier is a slam dunk to be a 60+ point Selke nominee. He's an excellent young player, but I think we are collectively getting too excited too early.

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08-06-2012, 09:57 PM
  #33
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I would close my eyes and make the trade 1 for 1. I've always loved OEL and we have no problem drafting forwards, especially centers.

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08-06-2012, 10:08 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by hockeyfreak7 View Post
The difference with OEL? Well, Ekman-Larsson actually was a #1 defender last season. Even if OEL plateaus, he will still be one of the better defenders in the entire NHL, and he still has room to grow as a player.
If Coburn was not a #1 defenseman last year, then OEL wasn't.

Coburn had a better season than OEL, and I would currently consider him a better defenseman than OEL. Those 8 points that OEL had more than Coburn, Braydon could have easily made up if he had any kind of PP time.

But when you talk about OEL, make sure everyone's staying consistent with the level of play he has achieved so far.

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08-06-2012, 10:12 PM
  #35
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Braydon Coburn. future 12 time Norris winner.
who needs anyone else


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08-06-2012, 10:14 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Giroux tha Damaja View Post
Why is Couturier more likely?

There are tons of forwards who didn't pan out or under achieved also. That list of under achieving defensemen doesn't really mean squat. It seems like people on this board just don't want to face the obvious...OEL was a #1 defenseman in the play offs last year for a team that went to the conference finals. He's shouldered a bigger load than Couturier and has proven himself able to perform well. He's already closer to achieving his potential than Couturier is (which makes sense, given his longer time in the league).

People who think that this is a fair one-for-one swap for Phoenix are kidding themselves. It could work as the basis for a trade with us adding...but as is, it's pretty unfair.
What OEL did was incredibly impressive, but it was a small sample size. I *think* OEL will be good, but it's not a given. Young players are often inconsistent. I would not be paying a premium because a player played well for 16 games. If the playoffs were the best indicator of a player's true ability Briere would be the league's MVP, JVR would be an elite winger, and Fernando Pisani would have been a star.

Couturier + for him is just insane.

Edited to add: Couturier also shouldered a big load himself. He was not their #1 forward, but he was playing the toughest minutes which is a rare feat for a 19 year old. In the playoffs, his OZone starts were only 16.4% and yet managed to finish there 41.3% of the time. Despite being sent out there to get murdered, he had the 5th best points per 60 on the team in the playoffs. He has the makings to be something special that he can carry the heaviest load and still shows signs of producing offensively. His points per 60 in both the regular season and playoffs show that he should already be a top 6 forward, but the coach has mishandled that aspect of his game.


Last edited by Haute Couturier: 08-06-2012 at 10:35 PM.
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08-06-2012, 11:15 PM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
If Coburn was not a #1 defenseman last year, then OEL wasn't.

Coburn had a better season than OEL, and I would currently consider him a better defenseman than OEL. Those 8 points that OEL had more than Coburn, Braydon could have easily made up if he had any kind of PP time.

But when you talk about OEL, make sure everyone's staying consistent with the level of play he has achieved so far.
So much of what a #1 defender is expected to do goes beyond points, though. At least, my expectation for a #1 defender is someone who can control the flow of the game-- they can dictate the pace of the game, and they can control what happens on the ice by their general sense of the game and ability to anticipate the play.

The difference between Coburn and a #1 defender (imo) is that Coburn is simply a strong defender at protecting his own zone and playing good all around hockey while not necessarily dominating a game and dictating the play. OEL showed the ability to do just that last season and that's what makes him such an attractive player. To use one of our players as an example, Timonen in his prime was a player who could do exactly that.

Logging a ton of minutes and shutting the opposition down is great, and Coburn is excellent at that, but a player like OEL can be just a bit more. I hesitate to bring Pronger into this, but for the sake of making my point, you know how Pronger could settle the play down with his presence on the ice and poise with the puck? That's the kind of sense that #1 defenders possess. Strong #2s like Coburn, Girardi, etc. lack that ability.

So while OEL may not be a dominant force just yet, his ability to control the game with his sense shows his promise in that regard.


EDIT: And for the record, I think Couturier+ for OEL is foolish. I'm just saying that given what OEL has shown, it would be equally foolish for PHX to pass on a player who shows the ability to do what so many players can not.

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08-06-2012, 11:28 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyfreak7 View Post
So much of what a #1 defender is expected to do goes beyond points, though. At least, my expectation for a #1 defender is someone who can control the flow of the game-- they can dictate the pace of the game, and they can control what happens on the ice by their general sense of the game and ability to anticipate the play.
I wasn't suggesting that points were a big issue. I actually added that one sentence into the post after I had typed it so that I didn't get the "well look at the points" (imagine me doing that with an extremely whiny and annoyingly childish voice) argument.

I think Coburn does a better job of it than you believe, but yes, in general what separates him from a #1 is theoretically this "it" factor which is basically his ability to control the flow and pace of a game. Timonen has it; less now than before unfortunately. Pronger had it all the way up until his injury. Coburn has shown flashes of it, but only to a real credible extent in the postseason.

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Originally Posted by hockeyfreak7 View Post
The difference between Coburn and a #1 defender (imo) is that Coburn is simply a strong defender at protecting his own zone and playing good all around hockey while not necessarily dominating a game and dictating the play. OEL showed the ability to do just that last season and that's what makes him such an attractive player. To use one of our players as an example, Timonen in his prime was a player who could do exactly that.
My, albeit limited, exposure to OEL's play at the NHL level has not shown that he possessed this already. Maybe I didn't watch the right games, maybe I didn't watch enough games. OEL however came off as a strong performer at a very young age who will without any reasonable doubt have a long career as a top pairing defenseman in the NHL.

Saying he has that ability to control of the pace of play is something else. It's not beyond him, but I haven't seen enough of him to make a judgement. Statistics are not easily quantifiable at the defensive level, but using the ones at our disposal, we can readily say that Coburn, this past season and postseason, performed as well if not better than OEL.

Of course Coburn is just 27 and OEL just 21, but my point remains.

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Logging a ton of minutes and shutting the opposition down is great, and Coburn is excellent at that, but a player like OEL can be just a bit more. I hesitate to bring Pronger into this, but for the sake of making my point, you know how Pronger could settle the play down with his presence on the ice and poise with the puck? That's the kind of sense that #1 defenders possess. Strong #2s like Coburn, Girardi, etc. lack that ability.
NEVER bring Pronger into this. There is nothing like Pronger in the NHL right now. Weber tries. Chara tries. They come close, but you and I both know what Pronger was and hopefully, though unrealistic, may be again.

Right now, I don't see OEL with that poise just yet. Lots of young defensemen were strong on the puck early in their careers. Lots of young defensemen could play a steady two-way game. Lots of those same young defensemen sputtered into the early years of their "primes" (in the mid-late 20s) as just top four defensemen overhyped when they were younger.

Quote:
Originally Posted by hockeyfreak7 View Post
So while OEL may not be a dominant force just yet, his ability to control the game with his sense shows his promise in that regard.

EDIT: And for the record, I think Couturier+ for OEL is foolish. I'm just saying that given what OEL has shown, it would be equally foolish for PHX to pass on a player who shows the ability to do what so many players can not.
I love OEL, but I'm not betting any farms on him yet.

And yes, I agree Couturier+ is stupid. I think Couturier for OEL straight up is stupid from both sides as well.

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08-06-2012, 11:50 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Chris Shafer View Post
I wasn't suggesting that points were a big issue. I actually added that one sentence into the post after I had typed it so that I didn't get the "well look at the points" (imagine me doing that with an extremely whiny and annoyingly childish voice) argument.

I think Coburn does a better job of it than you believe, but yes, in general what separates him from a #1 is theoretically this "it" factor which is basically his ability to control the flow and pace of a game. Timonen has it; less now than before unfortunately. Pronger had it all the way up until his injury. Coburn has shown flashes of it, but only to a real credible extent in the postseason.
I agree that Coburn has shown dominance in flashes. Beast mode Coburn is probably a #1 defender, but that seems to be a 'when the stars align' kind of thing. He has, for all intents and purposes, developed into a steady player who makes great decisions and is positionally sound. I think hoping for him to be anything more than a strong #2 is a bit optimistic, though. I wouldnt be satisfied if the team ever put their hopes in him to be the de facto #1 guy even if he does show that at times.


Quote:
My, albeit limited, exposure to OEL's play at the NHL level has not shown that he possessed this already. Maybe I didn't watch the right games, maybe I didn't watch enough games. OEL however came off as a strong performer at a very young age who will without any reasonable doubt have a long career as a top pairing defenseman in the NHL.

Saying he has that ability to control of the pace of play is something else. It's not beyond him, but I haven't seen enough of him to make a judgement. Statistics are not easily quantifiable at the defensive level, but using the ones at our disposal, we can readily say that Coburn, this past season and postseason, performed as well if not better than OEL.

Of course Coburn is just 27 and OEL just 21, but my point remains.
Perhaps you didnt watch the right games, but I think a more likely conclusion is that multiple people can watch the same thing and draw different conclusions. I think we both agree that defensive play is highly subjective, so claiming one thing or another definitively would be a foolish discussion to have.

That said, I did not mean to claim that OEL has shown such dominant ability yet. Just that his poise and general sense is extremely promising and would suggest he could develop such ability in the future. Whereas other players have shown 'flash in the pan' dominance (ie, Meszaros in Ottawa), I think OEL showed a different kind of poise that was successful in being a calming presence that I would expect from a #1 defender.


Quote:
NEVER bring Pronger into this. There is nothing like Pronger in the NHL right now. Weber tries. Chara tries. They come close, but you and I both know what Pronger was and hopefully, though unrealistic, may be again.
You know I wasnt actually comparing OEL to Pronger

I just used Pronger to illustrate what I meant by being able to dictate the flow of the game if I hadnt been clear enough before.

Quote:
Right now, I don't see OEL with that poise just yet. Lots of young defensemen were strong on the puck early in their careers. Lots of young defensemen could play a steady two-way game. Lots of those same young defensemen sputtered into the early years of their "primes" (in the mid-late 20s) as just top four defensemen overhyped when they were younger.

I love OEL, but I'm not betting any farms on him yet.

And yes, I agree Couturier+ is stupid. I think Couturier for OEL straight up is stupid from both sides as well.
Like I said, I dont think he is there yet, but I do think his play goes beyond playing 'a steady two way game'. Many players in recent history have jumped in to the NHL and impressed quickly, but few possess such poise at such a young age.

I would never claim that a young player is a sure thing. Like I said about Couturier above, it's stupid to expect greatness from young players who have shown promise early. As far as OEL goes, I just think his ability to sense the game in his head is something that suggests a very high ceiling. Similarly, I think the same can be said about Couturier. I just think OEL has proven a bit more (as he should have being a sophomore to the rookie Couturier).




And as an aside, my personal wild card to develop into something great is Luke Schenn. If he could grow out of the brain fart phase and develop some adequate ability with the puck, I really think he could become a dominant presence on the ice. That seems to contradict most of what I've said above, but I think he still has the potential to grow into the defender everyone wanted him to be at the time of his draft. That's obviously a pretty optimistic statement, but I have a hunch that we will see his game really grow in Philly provided he isnt, ya know, missing an eye or anything...

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08-07-2012, 02:47 AM
  #40
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Sean Couturier should and probably is untouchable. 1st line caliber centers are the hardest thing to acquire in the league. You typically have to choose in the top 10 in the draft to get them, especially if they have any size. There is this popular myth around that you need a Norris caliber defenseman to win a Stanley Cup. However I can name 2 teams since the lockout that had unspectacular defensemen and won a Stanley Cup in Pittsburgh and Carolina. I cannot find a winner without a stud center, and more than likely two.
When did Couturier turn into a first line center? He is geat two way player already who still has to discover his offensive game and work on his speed and how to win some draws.
I think his upside is Rod Brind'Amour who has been a rock solid 2nd line center and even 3rd line center or first line winger at times for this team. Someone who plays it all, shuts down the opposition and provides secondary scoring on a regular bases as well.

Did I miss something fundamental? First line centers are carrying the whole team in terms of scoring and running the PP. Couts is just not that type of player.
I wouldn't trade him though..at least not until we have seen his full potential.

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08-07-2012, 03:36 AM
  #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flyershockey View Post
I never said a one for one trade wasn't fair. I also think we would have to add, but it is a little ridiculous to see Phoenix fans demand Schenn and Couturier and picks. OEL is a good young player, and he is on his way to becoming a number one defenseman, but Couturier has a ceiling that's just as high.

OEL also plays in a system that is about as beneficial to defensemen and goalies as you're going to get. Tippet's system makes Hitchcock look like he's playing pond hockey.
I mostly agree with this. I also think your comment about Tippet's brand of hockey makes Ekman-Larsson's 32 points that much more respectable.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Haute Couturier View Post
What OEL did was incredibly impressive, but it was a small sample size. I *think* OEL will be good, but it's not a given.

Young players are often inconsistent. I would not be paying a premium because a player played well for 16 games. If the playoffs were the best indicator of a player's true ability Briere would be the league's MVP, JVR would be an elite winger, and Fernando Pisani would have been a star.
How is anything you've said here any less applicable to Couturier than OEL? Hell, OEL had a larger sample size in the play-offs than Couturier, so one could reach to make the argument that it's more applicable to Couturier.

Couturier is good. The kid is gonna be a weapon for a long time, but we would all do well to step back for a second when assessing just what he is relative to the other young stars around the league. Some of us have, in my opinion at least, looked really silly on the trade board in the last few days.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Haute Couturier View Post
Edited to add: Couturier also shouldered a big load himself. He was not their #1 forward, but he was playing the toughest minutes which is a rare feat for a 19 year old. In the playoffs, his OZone starts were only 16.4% and yet managed to finish there 41.3% of the time. Despite being sent out there to get murdered, he had the 5th best points per 60 on the team in the playoffs. He has the makings to be something special that he can carry the heaviest load and still shows signs of producing offensively. His points per 60 in both the regular season and playoffs show that he should already be a top 6 forward, but the coach has mishandled that aspect of his game.

The zone start stats are good info, but it reeks of irony that you're comfortable citing them after criticizing OEL based on sample size of his body of work. I would be that a disproportionate amount of those o-zone finishes are going to be a dump-and-change situations where Couturier gets credit for an o-zone finish. It's just the nature of his role, and he's good at it. Point being, while that stat is still a credit to him, it's not like he was taking the puck, marching up ice and shooting it down the other team's throat every shift.

The conclusion you reached about Laviolette from looking at Couturier's production per 60 is inaccurate in my opinion also. Just because Couturier scored at a certain rate doesn't mean his production is going to increase in a linear fashion with greater ice time, particularly when you ask him to do it for a whole season. He was a skinny rookie who should have only gotten so many minutes. Laviolette used Couturier in a role where he was most needed and the best man for the job. The fact that Couturier was still playing well in May is a credit to Laviolette's management of his ice time.

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08-07-2012, 06:07 AM
  #42
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Did anyone here actually watch any of Couturier in the Q by any chance?

Those anointing him at best a 2nd or 3rd line centre must not have.

He was dominant offensively in the lowest scoring junior league, and had the highest PPG of any player drafted from the CHL. (yes... that is a fact, though due to the Q's reputation historically it still has bias against it in that regard.)

The only reasons he did not go no.1 overall were his mono and his perceived slow foot speed... he would have been the top scorer in the Q two years in a row if he did not miss 10 games, his PPG was still the best.

He honestly dominated the Q the most of any player since Crosby, just look up the stats and game footage, two years in a row he had the best numbers in the Q in terms of per game in points, +/- (yeh I know, but I guarantee 'advanced stats' would show the same), he won every trophy he pretty much could have over two years, he was IMO far more impressive in junior than RNH.

This is a top 3 pick talent we are talking about, and yes, not all top picks develop into the player they should be, but he has already shown he can play to a high level in the NHL. Not saying he is going to be a 80 point scorer guaranteed, but anyone who says that he will not be has not followed him closely.

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08-07-2012, 12:13 PM
  #43
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But but he only scored 27 points on the fourth line last year........

You don't trade prospects for prospects. It never happens for a reason

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08-07-2012, 01:14 PM
  #44
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Couturier for OEL? LMAO.

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08-07-2012, 01:45 PM
  #45
FreshPerspective
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Originally Posted by Fresh34 View Post
Couturier for OEL? LMAO.
Ditto...

Please stop with the Couturier proposals....Flyers didn't trade him for Weber..not to mention for other players like Nash, Yandle and Ryan. Him and G are pretty much untouchable and the "hype" is warranted. Dude has off the charts hockey sense and he will be a stud center barring any unforseen injury disasters...knock on Shelley's head...

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08-07-2012, 01:54 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by Prongo View Post
I hope Phoenix fans are not wandering by our board, because they will ask for Giroux.......

People are delusional on the OEL love right now. Yes he had a pretty good season for a young defender, but that doesn't mean he will be a multiple Norris winner and Hall of Famer. Keith Yandle is still the number 1 in Phoenix until OEL over takes him, which he did not do last year. Yes he is getting better, but still has ways to go to be a franchise defender.
You have no idea what you are taking about.

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