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The case for a 1-year surgical tank for the Habs

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08-06-2012, 12:18 PM
  #626
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Originally Posted by FlyingKostitsyn View Post
And these trades are widely regarded as some of the worse in Habs history.

That it happened before doesn't mean it will happen in the near future, theres no logic in that.

Firstly this is not the 1990s anymore, secondly Marc Bergevin was busy getting deked by Mario Lemieux and blocking shots back then, he wasn't our GM. The only way we trade Gionta is if a king's ransom is offered for him at the deadline. He's not untouchable but I don't think he's a movable asset like Gill was either.
What would you consider a "king's ransom"?

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08-06-2012, 12:51 PM
  #627
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Well, it depends on what 8th to 12th means in the standings. Are we in 8th, 5 points up on 9th? Are we tied with 3 other teams for 8th or within 3 points of 12th?

Assuming you mean the latter, it's a tough decision for any team, no doubt. The important thing is to look beyond mere stats and evaluate whether your team - in the grand scheme of things - is on the rise or is just not good enough - long term.

If Bergevin sees a team that is competing every night and wants to play together and wants to win together; if he sees a youth core coming together and pushing each other, than I think he gives them every opportunity to scrap it out. If he sees that his team is gassed, not fighting for the puck, old and not jelling, I still think he's in the driver's seat: he has 4 picks in the top-60 next year with one of the best talent evaluators in the business. Added to which he also has a bunch of 1 and 2-year contracts that will be expiring before too long, so it's not like he's locked in with this team forever.

Whatever happens, an 8 to 12 place finish this year is not the worst thing in the world for a last-place team. Rarely do teams go from 15th to elite from one year to the next. I think it would be good for them to fight for a PO spot this year. Whether they make it or not. They have a lot of prospects on the cusp to feel hopeful about and plenty of picks to make some noise in next Summer's draft.

This is as close to a brand-new team as we've seen in a long time. New management and development people means a new philosophy and new attitude that will soon pervade the entire team. Acquiring players like Mackinnon is great, but it's less important to me than creating a winning attitude throughout the organization.
The way the league hands out points, with losers getting 1 point in OT games, any 8th place is usually barely an 8th place team, and any 9th place team is usually almost a playoff team.

2012: 3 points separating 8th and 9th
2011: 2 points separating 8th and 9th
2010: 1 points separating 8th and 9th
2009: 0 points separating 8th and 9th
2009: 2 points separating 8th and 9th

I do agree that if the team is better than I think than a rebuild is less necessary. However, I still hold that we should be sellers regardless of whether we are 6th or 14th. For me that only changes who we should sell.

I'm for dealing Kaberle either way, as he's going to fetch a great return. I hope that one of Leblanc or Gallagher dominates in Hamilton this year. That will facilitate trading away one of our vets.

I think a core of Galchenyuk, Subban, Price, Pacioretty will contend in good years. However, if you add one more elite player, such as McKinnon or Jones, I think you end up with a perennial contender.

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08-06-2012, 01:18 PM
  #628
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Originally Posted by habsfanatics View Post
It use to be if you were a captain of the habs, look out. Or so it seemed at least. There have been plenty of captains traded from the ch, and yes I was alive for more than one.

Captain Kirk, Mike Keane, Vincent Damphousse, Turgeon, Chelios and Carbonneau come to mind. T here were something like 6 captains in 10 years that were traded away. Koivu was an anomaly and it's big part of why the fan base crew so attached to him, that and his bout with cancer. I was alive for all of them and not just alive, but old enough to see them all go.

It's become a little rarer, but mostly become koivu was an exception to the rule. Not because it's unthinkable.
Please don't quibble. Of course it's possible but Bergevin would certainly realize the implications of doing it and would not unload Gionta like trash, a la Gainey. I think Gainey made a huge mistake in not re-signing Koivu (and then compounded his error by blundering into a hideous trade). Not only did he give away better players than he received and pay a king's ransom for Gomez, but Koivu rubbed it in by outscoring the much higher paid Gomez since the trade. I assume you want to trade Gionta for a draft choice or a prospect but, as I have already pointed out, Gionta's age, salary, and size would restrict the market. If it took place, it would surely occur near the deadline. This in turn might disrupt the Habs' own chances of making the playoffs, so the Habs would have to be close to elimination before Bergevin pulled the trigger. Your thoughts, please.

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08-06-2012, 02:21 PM
  #629
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
What would you consider a "king's ransom"?
First rounder + decent prospect.

I doubt we can get that for him. He might have more value next year when he's an upcoming UFA. Keep in mind any team acquiring Gionta and giving a first would trade 20 to 30 overall, its not that valuable.

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08-06-2012, 02:29 PM
  #630
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Don't play in arenas you don't belong in. Works for me
And you can judge that how?

I can school you on cosmology (and the merits of 'tanking') any day of the week, bub.

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08-06-2012, 04:47 PM
  #631
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Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
Please don't quibble. Of course it's possible but Bergevin would certainly realize the implications of doing it and would not unload Gionta like trash, a la Gainey. I think Gainey made a huge mistake in not re-signing Koivu (and then compounded his error by blundering into a hideous trade). Not only did he give away better players than he received and pay a king's ransom for Gomez, but Koivu rubbed it in by outscoring the much higher paid Gomez since the trade. I assume you want to trade Gionta for a draft choice or a prospect but, as I have already pointed out, Gionta's age, salary, and size would restrict the market. If it took place, it would surely occur near the deadline. This in turn might disrupt the Habs' own chances of making the playoffs, so the Habs would have to be close to elimination before Bergevin pulled the trigger. Your thoughts, please.
Quibble? You tried to call me out on something you apparently weren't familiar with, that's fine. I wasn't rubbing it in, only replying to your question of whether or not I knew of a Captain beside Koivu.

Never assume, I said in my own post that I believe Gionta can be solid contributor to the habs, I was only addressing his value. He most definitely has the value of a late 1st + prospect, maybe even more at the deadline. I never disputed the rest of your post, in fact, I agree with most of what you said, aside from the fact that Gionta's size would limit his value, it wouldn't. If a GM was acquiring Gionta for his scoring/grit, his size would be the last thing on his mind, his age ect are basically irrelevant with the years remaining on his contract, Gio should maintain decent production through those years.

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08-06-2012, 04:50 PM
  #632
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
The way the league hands out points, with losers getting 1 point in OT games, any 8th place is usually barely an 8th place team, and any 9th place team is usually almost a playoff team.

2012: 3 points separating 8th and 9th
2011: 2 points separating 8th and 9th
2010: 1 points separating 8th and 9th
2009: 0 points separating 8th and 9th
2009: 2 points separating 8th and 9th

I do agree that if the team is better than I think than a rebuild is less necessary. However, I still hold that we should be sellers regardless of whether we are 6th or 14th. For me that only changes who we should sell.

I'm for dealing Kaberle either way, as he's going to fetch a great return. I hope that one of Leblanc or Gallagher dominates in Hamilton this year. That will facilitate trading away one of our vets.

I think a core of Galchenyuk, Subban, Price, Pacioretty will contend in good years. However, if you add one more elite player, such as McKinnon or Jones, I think you end up with a perennial contender.
I think you're stuck in 2011 as far as kaberle's value is concerned, Carolina took on an aging salary dump for his services, his value is at an all time low. I will concede if he turns it around a bit with his conditioning he could elevate his value again, but I don't think a 1st is in the cards, that wouldn't restrict me from moving him though.

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08-06-2012, 05:03 PM
  #633
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
The way the league hands out points, with losers getting 1 point in OT games, any 8th place is usually barely an 8th place team, and any 9th place team is usually almost a playoff team.

2012: 3 points separating 8th and 9th
2011: 2 points separating 8th and 9th
2010: 1 points separating 8th and 9th
2009: 0 points separating 8th and 9th
2009: 2 points separating 8th and 9th

I do agree that if the team is better than I think than a rebuild is less necessary. However, I still hold that we should be sellers regardless of whether we are 6th or 14th. For me that only changes who we should sell.

I'm for dealing Kaberle either way, as he's going to fetch a great return. I hope that one of Leblanc or Gallagher dominates in Hamilton this year. That will facilitate trading away one of our vets.

I think a core of Galchenyuk, Subban, Price, Pacioretty will contend in good years. However, if you add one more elite player, such as McKinnon or Jones, I think you end up with a perennial contender.
I understand very well that the difference between a playoff team and a non-playoff team is minuscule. It has been since the lock-out. I can only assume that you're trying to emphasize the possibility of the team vying for the PO's and failing. Well, that's entirely possible, but I don't think it would be the end of the world. The team's in limbo while they wait for their young core to be ready and while they wait out some dubious contracts. Fighting for a spot and failing isn't good, but it wouldn't be horrible either if the team sees it as a steppingstone.

Last season's misery was of great importance: we needed to make wholesale changes and we needed a #1 center. Done. It's not as important this year. Definitely not important enough to be pushing for it in August!

If we're in 6th, as you say, and we start selling, I'll be quite pissed! And I don't think I'll be alone.

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08-06-2012, 06:34 PM
  #634
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Originally Posted by jwolf View Post
I understand very well that the difference between a playoff team and a non-playoff team is minuscule. It has been since the lock-out. I can only assume that you're trying to emphasize the possibility of the team vying for the PO's and failing. Well, that's entirely possible, but I don't think it would be the end of the world. The team's in limbo while they wait for their young core to be ready and while they wait out some dubious contracts. Fighting for a spot and failing isn't good, but it wouldn't be horrible either if the team sees it as a steppingstone.

Last season's misery was of great importance: we needed to make wholesale changes and we needed a #1 center. Done. It's not as important this year. Definitely not important enough to be pushing for it in August!

If we're in 6th, as you say, and we start selling, I'll be quite pissed! And I don't think I'll be alone.
But, you'll keep coming back for more and that's all that matters.

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08-06-2012, 06:59 PM
  #635
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We're not going anywhere until Galchenyuk is ready and until Gomez's anchor is gone. Both those things won't happen this year. You never want to say never, but man is it hard to envision this team doing anything next year.

If we can get another 1st and another 2nd with some of these vets we got we'll have six picks in the first 2 rounds. If you couple that with our past draft which probably netted us four top 2 round talents, we'd have 10 top 2 round talents in TWO years. It would be like a 5 year rebuild in 2 years.

Then we'll find a way to ditch Gomez's one remaining year. Galchenyuk will be a year older. Subban will be wiser. Price will be entering his prime. Same with Patches. Eller will be better. Emelin will be better. We'll have Beaulieu and Tinordi and Gallagher and Leblanc. And we'll have cap space.

It's just one more year people! A 2 year rebuild is really not that bad and unlike most teams, we will actually be rebuilt and we'll be formidable again. We won't be a perpetual rebuilding team.

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08-06-2012, 07:54 PM
  #636
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Originally Posted by TheGoalJudge View Post
We're not going anywhere until Galchenyuk is ready and until Gomez's anchor is gone. Both those things won't happen this year. You never want to say never, but man is it hard to envision this team doing anything next year.

If we can get another 1st and another 2nd with some of these vets we got we'll have six picks in the first 2 rounds. If you couple that with our past draft which probably netted us four top 2 round talents, we'd have 10 top 2 round talents in TWO years. It would be like a 5 year rebuild in 2 years.

Then we'll find a way to ditch Gomez's one remaining year. Galchenyuk will be a year older. Subban will be wiser. Price will be entering his prime. Same with Patches. Eller will be better. Emelin will be better. We'll have Beaulieu and Tinordi and Gallagher and Leblanc. And we'll have cap space.

It's just one more year people! A 2 year rebuild is really not that bad and unlike most teams, we will actually be rebuilt and we'll be formidable again. We won't be a perpetual rebuilding team.
Another one that gets it

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08-06-2012, 08:04 PM
  #637
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Originally Posted by habsfanatics View Post
Quibble? You tried to call me out on something you apparently weren't familiar with, that's fine. I wasn't rubbing it in, only replying to your question of whether or not I knew of a Captain beside Koivu.

Never assume, I said in my own post that I believe Gionta can be solid contributor to the habs, I was only addressing his value. He most definitely has the value of a late 1st + prospect, maybe even more at the deadline. I never disputed the rest of your post, in fact, I agree with most of what you said, aside from the fact that Gionta's size would limit his value, it wouldn't. If a GM was acquiring Gionta for his scoring/grit, his size would be the last thing on his mind, his age ect are basically irrelevant with the years remaining on his contract, Gio should maintain decent production through those years.
I conclude that you overestimate Gionta's market value. I don't take offense but you are mistaken in believing that I was unaware of those captain trades. You may not have been aware of it, but I began watching the Habs in the mid-1940s and I'm more knowledgeable about the team's history than you are. I've viewed their games not only in the Forum and the Bell Centre but also in Boston, Philadelphia, New York, Long Island, and New Jersey. I've had lunch with Scotty Bowman and had conversations with former coaches Jacques Lemaire, Claude Ruel, and Jean Perron.

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08-06-2012, 10:52 PM
  #638
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Originally Posted by TheGoalJudge View Post
We're not going anywhere until Galchenyuk is ready and until Gomez's anchor is gone. Both those things won't happen this year. You never want to say never, but man is it hard to envision this team doing anything next year.

If we can get another 1st and another 2nd with some of these vets we got we'll have six picks in the first 2 rounds. If you couple that with our past draft which probably netted us four top 2 round talents, we'd have 10 top 2 round talents in TWO years. It would be like a 5 year rebuild in 2 years.

Then we'll find a way to ditch Gomez's one remaining year. Galchenyuk will be a year older. Subban will be wiser. Price will be entering his prime. Same with Patches. Eller will be better. Emelin will be better. We'll have Beaulieu and Tinordi and Gallagher and Leblanc. And we'll have cap space.

It's just one more year people! A 2 year rebuild is really not that bad and unlike most teams, we will actually be rebuilt and we'll be formidable again. We won't be a perpetual rebuilding team.
It would be wonderful to acquire an additional first round pick who is projected to play on a top line but I don't think the Habs can offer enough from their roster. Some fans suggest trading Gionta, a player who has produced for the Habs and is respected enough to serve as their captain. However, IMO expecting a first rounder would be wishful thinking. Apparently Lou Lamoriello didn't think Gionta was worth all those millions or he would still be a Devil. I'd say he could fetch a second rounder at the trading deadline, although Bergevin might not want to part with him if the Habs are in a fight for a playoff berth. Gionta couldn't be packaged with Gomez or Bourque because the acquiring team couldn't afford their salaries or their combined liabilities. Still, the Habs don't have to feel completely frustrated. They'll have three picks in the second round of the supposedly rich 2013 draft that can be used as trading chips.

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08-07-2012, 06:50 AM
  #639
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We're not going anywhere until Galchenyuk is ready and until Gomez's anchor is gone. Both those things won't happen this year. You never want to say never, but man is it hard to envision this team doing anything next year.

If we can get another 1st and another 2nd with some of these vets we got we'll have six picks in the first 2 rounds. If you couple that with our past draft which probably netted us four top 2 round talents, we'd have 10 top 2 round talents in TWO years. It would be like a 5 year rebuild in 2 years.

Then we'll find a way to ditch Gomez's one remaining year. Galchenyuk will be a year older. Subban will be wiser. Price will be entering his prime. Same with Patches. Eller will be better. Emelin will be better. We'll have Beaulieu and Tinordi and Gallagher and Leblanc. And we'll have cap space.

It's just one more year people! A 2 year rebuild is really not that bad and unlike most teams, we will actually be rebuilt and we'll be formidable again. We won't be a perpetual rebuilding team.
I'm down with this and have said that this year would be a transition year. So we'll have to sit through some heartache this year, but the year after should be better. We won't have to worry about our management trading away draft picks for scrubs or rentals anymore. We'll actually have good, solid talent in the minors too.

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08-07-2012, 09:04 AM
  #640
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Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
I conclude that you overestimate Gionta's market value. I don't take offense but you are mistaken in believing that I was unaware of those captain trades. You may not have been aware of it, but I began watching the Habs in the mid-1940s and I'm more knowledgeable about the team's history than you are. I've viewed their games not only in the Forum and the Bell Centre but also in Boston, Philadelphia, New York, Long Island, and New Jersey. I've had lunch with Scotty Bowman and had conversations with former coaches Jacques Lemaire, Claude Ruel, and Jean Perron.
The problem with this is that if there's on thing that's hard to evaluate, it's the value a player might fetch in a trade. How many times have we been left scratching our heads by a trade made by a GM ? There are many factor which fall in this equation. Is this other team desperate for more scoring or they feel the need to shore up because their rivals have made a big moves ? Do they think highly of Gionta as a individual, hockey player, leader, etc ? Is Gionta having a good season ? Is he simply red hot right now ? Is the next draft a good one ? Which GM is the better negociator ?

I won't say that I could on forever, but I'm sure we could make a pretty hefty list of questions here, not all easy to answer. That's why there might be a good chance that Gionta might fetch us a 1st.

Also, don't bring up the fact that you've had conversations with NHL coaches to prove your point. Justin Bieber might've had a talk with Scotty Bowman for all I care and listening to the game since the 1940s doesn't make you knowledgeable, it makes you a hardcore fan. Nice to know though that you've been listening for all that time. Keep it up man !

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08-07-2012, 09:07 AM
  #641
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Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
It would be wonderful to acquire an additional first round pick who is projected to play on a top line but I don't think the Habs can offer enough from their roster. Some fans suggest trading Gionta, a player who has produced for the Habs and is respected enough to serve as their captain. However, IMO expecting a first rounder would be wishful thinking. Apparently Lou Lamoriello didn't think Gionta was worth all those millions or he would still be a Devil. I'd say he could fetch a second rounder at the trading deadline, although Bergevin might not want to part with him if the Habs are in a fight for a playoff berth. Gionta couldn't be packaged with Gomez or Bourque because the acquiring team couldn't afford their salaries or their combined liabilities. Still, the Habs don't have to feel completely frustrated. They'll have three picks in the second round of the supposedly rich 2013 draft that can be used as trading chips.
You know what's better than having three 2nd rounders?

Having five or six 2nd rounders.

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08-07-2012, 09:20 AM
  #642
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The Habs have a good prospect pool.

Leblanc, Gallagher, Beaulieu, Ellis, Tinordi, Galchenyuk... six guys capable of being top-6 forwards or top-4 dmen.

I don't see any of them challenging for a spot this year. But I think it's conceivable 3 of them could challenge next year. Some of them might even dominate Hamilton sufficiently to warrant a promotion to the big club in the late season, it's a long shot but it's possible.

So either way we're going to have to clear out some veterans... soon.

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08-07-2012, 09:27 AM
  #643
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The competition for a lottery spot is rather shallow this year.

Columbus lost its best player, so it should be back in the lottery. It could surprise, but I don't expect them to.

Edmonton will be vastly improved. I'd be surprised if they were back in the lottery. They have added Yakupov and Schultz. Additionally, Ryan Whitney, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Taylor Hall all missed 20-30 games last year, that's unusual.

My analysis of Montreal's roster is well-documented by know.

The Islanders have a 50/50 shot of being in the lottery. They're an improving young team, but that's true every year.

Toronto? They're a good team if their goalie steps up, otherwise they're back in the lottery. James van Riemsdyk will improve them significantly.

Anaheim could fall into the lottery. If they can't negotiate extensions with Getzlaf and Perry, they'll have to trade them for picks and prospects, which will be equivalent to tanking.

Minnesota should improve. They picked up Parise and Suter, also Koivu was injured last year.

Carolina has picked up Staal and Semin, they should improve.

Don't know about Winnipeg and Tampa Bay.

Colorado and Buffalo should improve.

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08-07-2012, 09:50 AM
  #644
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But, you'll keep coming back for more and that's all that matters.
Sure I will! We're entering into a very exciting time for the team and I want to be a part of it!! The last 2 years of Gauthier/Martin (coupled with the last year or two of BOB) has been excruciating to say the least. Seems to me that Molson and Bergevin are doing it right.

All the pieces are there. Give them a year or two put it all together and this team will be a contender!!

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08-07-2012, 09:56 AM
  #645
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The competition for a lottery spot is rather shallow this year.

Columbus lost its best player, so it should be back in the lottery. It could surprise, but I don't expect them to.

Edmonton will be vastly improved. I'd be surprised if they were back in the lottery. They have added Yakupov and Schultz. Additionally, Ryan Whitney, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Taylor Hall all missed 20-30 games last year, that's unusual.

My analysis of Montreal's roster is well-documented by know.

The Islanders have a 50/50 shot of being in the lottery. They're an improving young team, but that's true every year.

Toronto? They're a good team if their goalie steps up, otherwise they're back in the lottery. James van Riemsdyk will improve them significantly.

Anaheim could fall into the lottery. If they can't negotiate extensions with Getzlaf and Perry, they'll have to trade them for picks and prospects, which will be equivalent to tanking.

Minnesota should improve. They picked up Parise and Suter, also Koivu was injured last year.

Carolina has picked up Staal and Semin, they should improve.

Don't know about Winnipeg and Tampa Bay.

Colorado and Buffalo should improve.
Toronto improved because of JVR? Scoring wasn't a problem for Toronto last year, they were 10th in goals for. Keeping the puck out of their net was. They traded one of their better d-men (who was scapegoated) for something they didn't need and still haven't solved their defensive and goaltending issues.

Also why should Colorado and Buffalo improve? Islanders youngsters might improve, but so might the habs'. Too many assumptions given in favor of other teams. Carolina's defense is still something left to be desired. Edmonton still has a lot of d issues as well.


Last edited by Andy: 08-07-2012 at 10:02 AM.
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08-07-2012, 10:23 AM
  #646
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Toronto improved because of JVR? Scoring wasn't a problem for Toronto last year, they were 10th in goals for. Keeping the puck out of their net was. They traded one of their better d-men (who was scapegoated) for something they didn't need and still haven't solved their defensive and goaltending issues.
I explicitly said that Toronto's biggest question mark is their goaltending. I said I expect them back in the lottery if they have the same goaltending as last year.

R-E-A-D.

Let me be clear as possible: If their goalie doesn't step up I expect them back in the lottery.

With that said, if you improve the 10th best offense in the league then you improve the team. They still need a goalie, but scoring an extra 10 or 15 goals over the season should move them up 2 or 3 spots regardless of their goals allowed. They were the 5th worst team last year, but that's partly because they overchieved in the first 20 games. In the second half they were atrocious.

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Also why should Colorado and Buffalo improve? Islanders youngsters might improve, but so might the habs'. Too many assumptions given in favor of other teams. Carolina's defense is still something left to be desired. Edmonton still has a lot of d issues as well.
Colorado should improve because they are a young team leaving the rebuilding phase. The season they just had is the season I expect Edmonton to have this coming year and Montreal to have the year after. Their core is Matt Duchene, Erik Johnson, Paul Statsny, Gabriel Landeskog. A team with a core like that is a team you expect to trend upwards.

Buffalo should improve because Ryan Miller had a concussion last year, and he's their flagship. Mikhail Grigorenko should make the team on the 3rd or 2nd line and contribute decent secondary scoring. Cody Hodgson should also contribute secondary scoring.

Carolina is vastly improved. They picked up Jordan Staal, a great secondary scorer with gamebreaking ability and one of the best defensive centers in the league, and Alexander Semin, one of the great scorers in the league. They now also get a full season of Kirk Muller.

Edmonton should be the most improved team in the league in terms of total points accumulated. They had 74 points last year. Book it. Expect ~90 this year.

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08-07-2012, 10:39 AM
  #647
Andy
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
I explicitly said that Toronto's biggest question mark is their goaltending. I said I expect them back in the lottery if they have the same goaltending as last year.

R-E-A-D.

Let me be clear as possible: If their goalie doesn't step up I expect them back in the lottery.

With that said, if you improve the 10th best offense in the league then you improve the team. They still need a goalie, but scoring an extra 10 or 15 goals over the season should move them up 2 or 3 spots regardless of their goals allowed. They were the 5th worst team last year, but that's partly because they overchieved in the first 20 games. In the second half they were atrocious.


Colorado should improve because they are a young team leaving the rebuilding phase. The season they just had is the season I expect Edmonton to have this coming year and Montreal to have the year after. Their core is Matt Duchene, Erik Johnson, Paul Statsny, Gabriel Landeskog. A team with a core like that is a team you expect to trend upwards.

Buffalo should improve because Ryan Miller had a concussion last year, and he's their flagship. Mikhail Grigorenko should make the team on the 3rd or 2nd line and contribute decent secondary scoring. Cody Hodgson should also contribute secondary scoring.

Carolina is vastly improved. They picked up Jordan Staal, a great secondary scorer with gamebreaking ability and one of the best defensive centers in the league, and Alexander Semin, one of the great scorers in the league. They now also get a full season of Kirk Muller.

Edmonton should be the most improved team in the league in terms of total points accumulated. They had 74 points last year. Book it. Expect ~90 this year.
I see to many assumptions and too many ifs. Buffalo lost Roy and Cody Hodgson and Grigorenko are questions marks. I think Buffalo will be better, but not because of these two players.

Colorado is still a question mark, you are banking on their youngsters to improve (same with Edmonton), but that could very well happen with the Canadiens. Carolina's defense is still an issue, it was awful last year, this hasn't changed. Their offense did improve though, I'll give them that, but you need more than just scoring goals. Toronto's offense got better, but their bad D, got slightly worse, which was the biggest issue last year. It's nice to score goals, but when you can't keep the puck out your net, you won't win many games.

Edmonton's D is still pretty bad. Again, you banking too much on Schultz and Yakupov being difference makers, they haven't played an nhl game yet. RNH, Hall, Eberle will be better. They still have many holes that haven't been filled. They improved from the year before, but they were still terrible.

Wayyyyyy too early to say who will end up where.Just like not many people would have predicted the habs finishing last in the east last year at this time. I still many questions marks on the same teams as last year outside Buffalo.


Last edited by Andy: 08-07-2012 at 10:45 AM.
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08-07-2012, 10:51 AM
  #648
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
You know what's better than having three 2nd rounders?

Having five or six 2nd rounders.
No one would ever have thought of that pearl of wisdom if you hadn't brought it up.

What you're implying is that Bergevin should trade enough veterans to fetch 2 or 3 additional second rounders. Could you please be specific? You know as well as I do that Bergevin wouldn't trade certain players he's counting on for the coming season. I don't think he'd move any veterans who are worth first or seconders until close to the deadline, and at that it would depend on where the Habs are in the standings. As you know, Bergevin's highest priority in this, his first, season is to make the playoffs. I don't think Geoff Molson would look kindly on two consecutive misses. Naturally, Bergevin would also keep the future in mind, but until he sees how the present personnel (plus any prospects he brings up) perform he won't go radical.

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08-07-2012, 10:52 AM
  #649
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Well, it depends on what 8th to 12th means in the standings. Are we in 8th, 5 points up on 9th? Are we tied with 3 other teams for 8th or within 3 points of 12th?

Assuming you mean the latter, it's a tough decision for any team, no doubt. The important thing is to look beyond mere stats and evaluate whether your team - in the grand scheme of things - is on the rise or is just not good enough - long term.

If Bergevin sees a team that is competing every night and wants to play together and wants to win together; if he sees a youth core coming together and pushing each other, than I think he gives them every opportunity to scrap it out. If he sees that his team is gassed, not fighting for the puck, old and not jelling, I still think he's in the driver's seat: he has 4 picks in the top-60 next year with one of the best talent evaluators in the business. Added to which he also has a bunch of 1 and 2-year contracts that will be expiring before too long, so it's not like he's locked in with this team forever.

Whatever happens, an 8 to 12 place finish this year is not the worst thing in the world for a last-place team. Rarely do teams go from 15th to elite from one year to the next. I think it would be good for them to fight for a PO spot this year. Whether they make it or not. They have a lot of prospects on the cusp to feel hopeful about and plenty of picks to make some noise in next Summer's draft.

This is as close to a brand-new team as we've seen in a long time. New management and development people means a new philosophy and new attitude that will soon pervade the entire team. Acquiring players like Mackinnon is great, but it's less important to me than creating a winning attitude throughout the organization.
8th finish and 12 are not different? They are very very different. That's 16th in the league vs. 22nd or so. The pick Habs get is top 8, not 15th. 7-8 picks better, and putting Habs in the top ten.

8th gives Habs one playoff round. Wow. And don't, please don't, bring up the Kings.

Give me top 4 in conference, or give me a good pick.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
I conclude that you overestimate Gionta's market value. I don't take offense but you are mistaken in believing that I was unaware of those captain trades. You may not have been aware of it, but I began watching the Habs in the mid-1940s and I'm more knowledgeable about the team's history than you are. I've viewed their games not only in the Forum and the Bell Centre but also in Boston, Philadelphia, New York, Long Island, and New Jersey. I've had lunch with Scotty Bowman and had conversations with former coaches Jacques Lemaire, Claude Ruel, and Jean Perron.
Sorry if I was rude.

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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
The Habs have a good prospect pool.

Leblanc, Gallagher, Beaulieu, Ellis, Tinordi, Galchenyuk... six guys capable of being top-6 forwards or top-4 dmen.

I don't see any of them challenging for a spot this year. But I think it's conceivable 3 of them could challenge next year. Some of them might even dominate Hamilton sufficiently to warrant a promotion to the big club in the late season, it's a long shot but it's possible.

So either way we're going to have to clear out some veterans... soon.
The prospect pool, except for Gally, is average, with weaknesses in every player. Habs will never win a cup with that prospect pool and our current young core. They need one more year of high picks, badly.


Last edited by bsl: 08-07-2012 at 11:02 AM.
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08-07-2012, 10:59 AM
  #650
DAChampion
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The prospect pool, except for Gally, is average, with weaknesses in every player. We will never win a cup with that prospect pool and our current young core. We need one more year of high picks, badly.
Future core:
[Price, Subban, Pacioretty, Emelin, Eller, Gorges]

Future youth-wing:
[Beaulieu, Tinordi, Gallagher, Leblanc, Ellis, Galchenyuk, Colberg]

Members of current core who will still be here or be replaced by new free agents and draft picks:
[Plekanec, Markov, Cole, Gionta, Bourque, Kaberle].

When I look at our roster two years down the line, I see a team that could contend for the cup in a year when everything goes right, like when we went to the conference finals. We could definitely overachieve and win a cup one year. It won't be a perennial contender, but it will be a perennial playoff team that could fluke itself into a cup.

However, if you take that roster and add one more year of good drafting, say six picks in the top-2 rounds including one pick in the top-10, then imo you have a perennial contender. You have a team that you expect to win a cup, that could fluke itself to win two.

I think we're in general agreement.

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