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The case for a 1-year surgical tank for the Habs

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08-07-2012, 11:08 AM
  #651
Teufelsdreck
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Future core:
[Price, Subban, Pacioretty, Emelin, Eller, Gorges]

Future youth-wing:
[Beaulieu, Tinordi, Gallagher, Leblanc, Ellis, Galchenyuk, Colberg]

Members of current core who will still be here or be replaced by new free agents and draft picks:
[Plekanec, Markov, Cole, Gionta, Bourque, Kaberle].

When I look at our roster two years down the line, I see a team that could contend for the cup in a year when everything goes right, like when we went to the conference finals. We could definitely overachieve and win a cup one year. It won't be a perennial contender, but it will be a perennial playoff team that could fluke itself into a cup.

However, if you take that roster and add one more year of good drafting, say six picks in the top-2 rounds including one pick in the top-10, then imo you have a perennial contender. You have a team that you expect to win a cup, that could fluke itself to win two.

I think we're in general agreement.
There's more to it than drafting. The Devils wouldn't have reached the finals without Kovalchuk and the Bruins wouldn't have been able to win the Cup without a number of trades and FA signings. Obviously they didn't use a tanking strategy.

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08-07-2012, 11:08 AM
  #652
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Appearntly, youngsters from other teams being one year older means that the team overall will improve, however, this doesn't apply in the case of Montreal with Eller, Leblanc and Emelin being one year older, same with Desharnais and Pacioretty. Also players returning from injuries from other teams will also help those teams improve, but not Montreal who will have Gionta and Markov back full time.

We see the same crap every year of the grass being greener elsewhere. And no I am not saying the habs are a playoff team, I'm just saying that it is way too early to tell anythinh at this point.

Then you look at teams like Minnesotta who just drop like a stone mid-season, you can't predict **** like that.

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08-07-2012, 11:10 AM
  #653
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Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
No one would ever have thought of that pearl of wisdom if you hadn't brought it up.

What you're implying is that Bergevin should trade enough veterans to fetch 2 or 3 additional second rounders. Could you please be specific? You know as well as I do that Bergevin wouldn't trade certain players he's counting on for the coming season. I don't think he'd move any veterans who are worth first or seconders until close to the deadline, and at that it would depend on where the Habs are in the standings. As you know, Bergevin's highest priority in this, his first, season is to make the playoffs. I don't think Geoff Molson would look kindly on two consecutive misses. Naturally, Bergevin would also keep the future in mind, but until he sees how the present personnel (plus any prospects he brings up) perform he won't go radical.
It depends on how they perform in the coming year. However, assuming similar stats to last year:

1) Trade Bourque/Gomez for whatever we can get. If nobody offers a 7th rounder, then we're stuck. Consider Hamilton. If there's an amnesty buyout, buyout Bourque.

2) Trade Kaberle for whatever we can get. A pair of 2nd rounders is possible. He's a great puck-moving dman. However, consider keeping Kaberle and Subban rather than Markov and Subban if somebody offers a spectacular package for Markov.

3) Plekanec and Desharnais. It's likely one of them will be traded but I'm not sure. It's a difficult call. A very difficult call.

4) Gionta and Cole. Going forward I'd rather keep Cole, but you could make a credible argument that Gionta is better to keep. It really depends on the relative trade values. If different teams offer 1st rounders for both, then trade whichever one you consider less valuable.

5) Bouillon/Armstrong/Nokelainen/Budaj. Trade them for whatever we can get if there's anybody in Hamilton warranting a look at the big leagues. Consider being creative in trades.

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08-07-2012, 11:13 AM
  #654
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Originally Posted by Andy View Post
Appearntly, youngsters from other teams being one year older means that the team overall will improve, however, this doesn't apply in the case of Montreal with Eller, Leblanc and Emelin being one year older, same with Desharnais and Pacioretty. Also players returning from injuries from other teams will also help those teams improve, but not Montreal who will have Gionta and Markov back full time.

We see the same crap every year of the grass being greener elsewhere. And no I am not saying the habs are a playoff team, I'm just saying that it is way too early to tell anythinh at this point.

Then you look at teams like Minnesotta who just drop like a stone mid-season, you can't predict **** like that.
Edmonton's youth core >> Montreal's youth core.

Yes, absolutely, I expect more improvement from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Taylor Hall than from Max Pacioretty and Lars Eller.

Gionta and Markov are standard injuries. That's our 3rd best winger and 2nd best dman. If Price and Subban had been injured I'd be buying into the "next year when we have no injuries" mode of projections.

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08-07-2012, 11:35 AM
  #655
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Edmonton's youth core >> Montreal's youth core.

Yes, absolutely, I expect more improvement from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Taylor Hall than from Max Pacioretty and Lars Eller.

Gionta and Markov are standard injuries. That's our 3rd best winger and 2nd best dman. If Price and Subban had been injured I'd be buying into the "next year when we have no injuries" mode of projections.
True, RNH and TH are better than the Habs' best prospects, and you didn't even include Nail. As Hab fans we have to face reality. However, the team with elite talent doesn't always win. If I had to cite an appropriate case study it would be the 1971 playoffs, in which the underdog Habs defeated three teams with better records. The most shocking upset was their Bruins were really loaded and were headed by Phil Esposito and Bobby Orr.

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08-07-2012, 11:46 AM
  #656
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Edmonton's youth core >> Montreal's youth core.

Yes, absolutely, I expect more improvement from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Taylor Hall than from Max Pacioretty and Lars Eller.

Gionta and Markov are standard injuries. That's our 3rd best winger and 2nd best dman. If Price and Subban had been injured I'd be buying into the "next year when we have no injuries" mode of projections.
They have much better forward prospects for sure. We have a young star goaltender, a young no1 defensemen and a number of good defense prospects. Edmonton has star power but as of now they are not well built to actually compete.

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08-07-2012, 11:46 AM
  #657
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Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
There's more to it than drafting. The Devils wouldn't have reached the finals without Kovalchuk and the Bruins wouldn't have been able to win the Cup without a number of trades and FA signings. Obviously they didn't use a tanking strategy.
Let me speak to you in Geek:

1) Good drafting is necessary for the Habs to win the cup.
2) Good drafting is not sufficient for the Habs to win the cup.

That's my view.

On point #2, I mentioned [Plekanec, Markov, Gionta, Cole, Bourque, Kaberle] Over the next few years, those players are going UFA. Bergevin will either trade them for picks, prospects, roster players, or resign them. He needs to get that right. Also the cap replacement on the UFA market. It will be a sequence of difficult decisions... but it's part of the puzzle.

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08-07-2012, 11:48 AM
  #658
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They have much better forward prospects for sure. We have a young star goaltender, a young no1 defensemen and a number of good defense prospects. Edmonton has star power but as of now they are not well built to actually compete.
They're not well built to compete [for the cup], that's true.

However, they were brought into the discussion because, in my view, they're well built to stop being in the lottery.

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08-07-2012, 12:14 PM
  #659
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Then you look at teams like Minnesota who just drop like a stone mid-season, you can't predict **** like that.
Actually if you read the main board thread about the Wild, there are some links posted dating to mid-season that did predict the Wild were going to crash. Their shot totals & advanced stats were some of the worst in the league; they were riding sky-high performances from their goaltenders. They couldn't sustain that over 82 games.

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08-07-2012, 12:21 PM
  #660
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Originally Posted by optimus2861 View Post
Actually if you read the main board thread about the Wild, there are some links posted dating to mid-season that did predict the Wild were going to crash. Their shot totals & advanced stats were some of the worst in the league; they were riding sky-high performances from their goaltenders. They couldn't sustain that over 82 games.
Shooting percentages also told the story behind why the Leafs' early season domination was unsustainable.

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08-07-2012, 12:56 PM
  #661
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Originally Posted by optimus2861 View Post
Actually if you read the main board thread about the Wild, there are some links posted dating to mid-season that did predict the Wild were going to crash. Their shot totals & advanced stats were some of the worst in the league; they were riding sky-high performances from their goaltenders. They couldn't sustain that over 82 games.
You'd think Habs fans would be used to picking out teams that ride hot goaltending and abnormal shooting percentages to victory...

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08-07-2012, 12:59 PM
  #662
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Suggesting that Gionta could be traded for a #1 is either dishonest or harebrained. If you must concoct a scenario, at least make it plausible.
If Rivet can be dealt for a 1st, Gionta certainly can. And if he's not good enough to fetch a first, why is everyone so against trading him? If he's not really that good, then why on the one hand are folks pointing to him as a huge reason to be optimistic and on the other saying he's not even worth a 1st? Which is it?

He doesn't have much left on his deal, he's a decent scorer with character and can provide depth for a contender. That can net you a late 1st. No reason no to try to do this. Let's not make the same mistake that we made with Cammy last year please...
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Oh boy.....i don't know where to start!!

1- Tanking.....hummmm....you actually start thinking about tanking after 30-40 matchs in a season: NOT BEFORE TRAINING CAMP. Sorry, but that's against the spirit of sports....not just hockey....all sports.
'Tanking' is a misnomer. It doesn't really exist. Rebuilding though? Sure why not? We know we're not contenders but we've got some good youth to build with. Nothing wrong with adding to it. If we actually get into the playoffs? Great. At least we got some prospects to build with along the way and we can enjoy the playoffs until we're eliminated in the 1st or 2nd round.

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2- Surprises always happens....Mayby Galchenyuk will take the 1st line center spot right away, Mayby Eller will explode and grab a top 6 spot, Mayby Beaulieu will earn his place, Mayby a big trade is coming....who knows?? Last summer, nobody and i mean NOBODY expected Pacioretty - DD - Cole would be our first line....never underestimated the element of surprise.
Suprises do happen absolutely. Some of them are negative suprises...

And you can't plan for these so they shouldn't be part of your strategy.
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3- Is the Habs are that bad???

On paper....Bourque, Gionta, Cole and Pacioretty are all usually +25 goals scorers.
Plekanec use to be a 20-30 goals player
Desharnais and Eller can become 20 goals players

That's 7 players able to put 20 goals and more....7 forwards out of twelve!!!

At defense, we got Markov, used to be 60-65 points player..but let's say 50 (injury)
Kaberle also used to out up around 50 points a season
Subban can also put a 40-50 points season.
Are they that bad? Maybe not.

But they're not that good. That's why we should rebuild.


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Originally Posted by thebinne4pres View Post
3 defensemen out of 6 able to put 50 points.

One of the best young goaler with Price
One of the best open ice hitter with Emelin
One of the best useful tough guy with Prust
One of the best D to block shoot and shutdown guy with Gorges

And a ******** of tough customers whit Ryan-Moen-Bouillon ansd White

And much much much more better depth in case of injury with Beaulieu, Holland, Tinordi, Gallagher, Goeffrion, Dumont, St-Denis, Desjardins.

There's a lot of good things to get ride off to become a "tanking team"

And the things you forget.....if we tank, not sure any UFA will want to sign here!!
There's nothing in our lineup that contenders don't have except they have MORE talent...
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Originally Posted by thebinne4pres View Post
4- Gettin some draft pick????

How many do you need?, I'm not against it, but we already got 4 picks in the 2 first round.
We already have Eller, Desharnais, Pacioretty, Leblanc, Subban, Price, Beaulieu, Tinordi, Glachenyuk, Collberg, Gallagher, Ellis just to name those players as young future good players.

Lots of good young players
Lots of good draft pick

And already too much player already with the team!!!!!
Sure, why not? Up until Price (who was a one time lottery) we hadn't had a top five pick in 20 years. We actually made one rebuilding move for a 1st rounder and he's turned into our best forward...

Why not make more of those kinds of moves right now?

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Originally Posted by thebinne4pres View Post
Tanking???
Well mayby, but we'll see after 40 games......For now, there's too much good things to stop trying to win!!
Depends on what your goals are. If it's about trying to get into 8th place at all costs... sure, we could do it.

But if it's about trying to build a cup winner, then that's a different story.

And forget 'tanking'... not going to happen. Nobody is going to try to lose. It's silly that the debate keeps getting framed this way.

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Originally Posted by CrimsonSkorpion View Post
With that kind of logic, the Edmonton Oilers are screwed. Guys like Hall, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins and now Yakupov are all there. So they will not grow with the first few seasons of their young careers being a flush? Not that I am suggesting you're absolutely wrong, but some players do grow through awful seasons. It builds character and tells a lot about yourself if you're able to handle it and keep going.
You are dead on correct. Yzerman, Lemieux, Sakic... tons of guys grew up in losing organizations. Didn't hurt them one bit. Start with the best talent you can and build from there.

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Originally Posted by CrimsonSkorpion View Post
As for this year though, I'd rather wait until game 25-30 before talking seriously about it. To discuss a tank before pre-season has even started is way too early. However by game 30, if the Habs are dead last in the East, I would think it's time to start stock-piling picks, trading contracts out and building a more solid foundation for the future.
Again, forget 'tanking.' Nothing wrong with planning a rebuild though. And if we can get good returns for players now, no reason not to do it. It might be a little harder now though because there are unsigned free agents out there that teams are trying to nail down. Once that's done though, no problem in seeing what we can do.
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Toronto improved because of JVR? Scoring wasn't a problem for Toronto last year, they were 10th in goals for. Keeping the puck out of their net was. They traded one of their better d-men (who was scapegoated) for something they didn't need and still haven't solved their defensive and goaltending issues.
Off topic, but I like the JVR trade for TO. I'll have to keep the reasoning about Schenn to myself, but JVR should be good.
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Originally Posted by Andy View Post
Also why should Colorado and Buffalo improve? Islanders youngsters might improve, but so might the habs'. Too many assumptions given in favor of other teams. Carolina's defense is still something left to be desired. Edmonton still has a lot of d issues as well.
Thing is though, we're sitting here worrying about Buffalo... We should be worrying about winning cups, not fighting for 8th place.
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Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
No one would ever have thought of that pearl of wisdom if you hadn't brought it up.

What you're implying is that Bergevin should trade enough veterans to fetch 2 or 3 additional second rounders. Could you please be specific?
Don't know if he can or not, but I'll be happy to tell you that any of Cole, Gionta, Markov, Pleks or other vets should be shopped. They don't all have to be dealt but some should. Cole esp would fetch some good interest out there. It's nice to have him to help with Max's development but if we can get a good prospect out of it, that's far more important in the long run. And Cole is coming off a career year, great time to sell high on him.

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Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
You know as well as I do that Bergevin wouldn't trade certain players he's counting on for the coming season. I don't think he'd move any veterans who are worth first or seconders until close to the deadline, and at that it would depend on where the Habs are in the standings. As you know, Bergevin's highest priority in this, his first, season is to make the playoffs. I don't think Geoff Molson would look kindly on two consecutive misses. Naturally, Bergevin would also keep the future in mind, but until he sees how the present personnel (plus any prospects he brings up) perform he won't go radical.
I don't think anyone knows what Bergevin's priorities are. He's brand new. Maybe he got the job by going to Molson and telling him that a rebuild was in order. Maybe that's why we haven't seen any FA signings... then again maybe he's going hard after Shane Doan. Who knows?

My HOPE is that he's willing to rebuild because he wants a cup but I'm not going to expect it.
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Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
There's more to it than drafting. The Devils wouldn't have reached the finals without Kovalchuk and the Bruins wouldn't have been able to win the Cup without a number of trades and FA signings. Obviously they didn't use a tanking strategy.
Of course there's more to it than drafting. But drafting helps, esp when you can't get top free agents to play for you and have some of the best scouting in the league.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
True, RNH and TH are better than the Habs' best prospects, and you didn't even include Nail. As Hab fans we have to face reality. However, the team with elite talent doesn't always win.
But the team with little talent never wins. And the team with the best talent frequently does... why wouldn't you want to build with the best talent?
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Originally Posted by Teufelsdreck View Post
If I had to cite an appropriate case study it would be the 1971 playoffs, in which the underdog Habs defeated three teams with better records. The most shocking upset was their Bruins were really loaded and were headed by Phil Esposito and Bobby Orr.
Right, but that Boston team still won a cup in '72. You may not win it every year but sooner or later you probably will. The Ottawa Senators for example are the exception not the rule and they got screwed by the strike and new salary cap rules otherwise they'd probably have won a cup too...

You can build the best team you can and still not win. That's not a good argument for not trying to build the best team you can though... You'll never have guarantees, all you can do is build the best club you can and try to win. If you don't do this, you'll probably never win.

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08-07-2012, 01:08 PM
  #663
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Edmonton's youth core >> Montreal's youth core.

Yes, absolutely, I expect more improvement from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Taylor Hall than from Max Pacioretty and Lars Eller.

Gionta and Markov are standard injuries. That's our 3rd best winger and 2nd best dman. If Price and Subban had been injured I'd be buying into the "next year when we have no injuries" mode of projections.
Doesn't mean we won't improve as well. You could also argue that the West is stronger, seems to be a recurring statement every year. Harder competition=harder to accomplish improvements.

RNH and Hall are likely to improve more than MaxPac and Eller. And Eberle is better than DD. Yakupov will likely play, doubtful for Gally. No question about this.
But PK is our superstar D, he should be better this year. Edmonton are banking on Schultz. Question mark about him.
Price should improve over last season as well, right? Edmonton have no one.
Emelin and Diaz are two other interesting and ready prospects that Edmonton do not have either.

So yes, Edmonton's forward group is more interesting, and are likely to improve more than ours. But the same can be said of our young defense versus theirs. We can also say the same about our goaltending.
Not to mention, our veteran group is far better than theirs.
Will our defensive improvements, as well as dominance in the goaltending positions and with our solid vets, compensate the difference between their offensive improvements over ours? I think so.

I don't think Edmonton will go anywhere again next year. They will have a strong start, but unless they change their defense and goaltending, they'll collapse again.

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08-07-2012, 01:13 PM
  #664
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Doesn't mean we won't improve as well. You could also argue that the West is stronger, seems to be a recurring statement every year. Harder competition=harder to accomplish improvements.

RNH and Hall are likely to improve more than MaxPac and Eller. And Eberle is better than DD. Yakupov will likely play, doubtful for Gally. No question about this.
But PK is our superstar D, he should be better this year. Edmonton are banking on Schultz. Question mark about him.
Price should improve over last season as well, right? Edmonton have no one.
Emelin and Diaz are two other interesting and ready prospects that Edmonton do not have either.

So yes, Edmonton's forward group is more interesting, and are likely to improve more than ours. But the same can be said of our young defense versus theirs. We can also say the same about our goaltending.
Not to mention, our veteran group is far better than theirs.
Will our defensive improvements, as well as dominance in the goaltending positions and with our solid vets, compensate the difference between their offensive improvements over ours? I think so.

I don't think Edmonton will go anywhere again next year. They will have a strong start, but unless they change their defense and goaltending, they'll collapse again.
Won't surprise me at all if they do. There's no goaltending or D over there. They should look at dealing some of the guys like Gagner or Hemsky for some blueline help. They certainly have the depth up front to do this and those young forwards could help other teams.

Another top pick would be great for them, but they've got to start trying to build on what they have. As others have said though, their management aren't the brightest. I'm interested to see what happens over there because the talent they have up front is crazy stupid.

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08-07-2012, 01:17 PM
  #665
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Edmonton was the 2nd worst team in the league last year. Let's assume no improvement to their young players, and the same amount of injuries to their 2 best forwards (RNH, Hall) and to their best dman (Whitney).

They're adding Yakupov and Schultz. Even in this ultraconservative scenario, they should be improved substantially.

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08-07-2012, 01:23 PM
  #666
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
Edmonton was the 2nd worst team in the league last year. Let's assume no improvement to their young players, and the same amount of injuries to their 2 best forwards (RNH, Hall) and to their best dman (Whitney).

They're adding Yakupov and Schultz. Even in this ultraconservative scenario, they should be improved substantially.
At the very least they should be looking at goaltending...

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08-07-2012, 01:24 PM
  #667
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I would have been all for Montreal tanking had they not drafted Price. You cannot tank with an elite goaltender.

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08-07-2012, 01:24 PM
  #668
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I would have been all for Montreal tanking had they not drafted Price. You cannot tank with an elite goaltender.
What does that even mean?

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08-07-2012, 01:49 PM
  #669
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I would have been all for Montreal tanking had they not drafted Price. You cannot tank with an elite goaltender.
We did a pretty good job of it last year...

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08-07-2012, 02:01 PM
  #670
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Calgary is a dark horse to draft in the lottery this year.

They've been striving to make 8th place for several years now, buying up expensive UFAs and picking up players like Cammalleri, it's going to catch up to them.

I could see them trading impending UFA Jarome Iginla at the deadline if things are not going their way.

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08-07-2012, 02:04 PM
  #671
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Calgary is a dark horse to draft in the lottery this year.

They've been striving to make 8th place for several years now, buying up expensive UFAs and picking up players like Cammalleri, it's going to catch up to them.

I could see them trading impending UFA Jarome Iginla at the deadline if things are not going their way.
Reports from last season were that their GM wanted to rebuild but ownership wanted to try to make the playoffs.

Such a shame we wasted Cammy for a 2nd with them. The 2nd will be nice if they finish low, but a 1st would've been so much better. And there's no way he wasn't worth a 1st to somebody out there. Plus we saddled ourselves with Bourque (a guy who's the same age and actually has a longer deal.) Totally stupid...

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08-07-2012, 02:11 PM
  #672
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A two year tank would be even better.

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08-07-2012, 02:12 PM
  #673
DAChampion
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Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Reports from last season were that their GM wanted to rebuild but ownership wanted to try to make the playoffs.

Such a shame we wasted Cammy for a 2nd with them. The 2nd will be nice if they finish low, but a 1st would've been so much better. And there's no way he wasn't worth a 1st to somebody out there. Plus we saddled ourselves with Bourque (a guy who's the same age and actually has a longer deal.) Totally stupid...
If their ownership is interfering then we could see what happened in Florida, when they failed to deal Bouwmeester at the deadline a few years back and lost him for nothing.

Without Bourque, a 2nd + Patrick Holland would be worth more than a 1st from a contender imo, as Holland is equivalent to a good 2nd, and Calgary 2nd will be 30-40. Patrick Holland's production exploded last year. I don't watch WHL games, but I'm intrigued by his 109 points in 72 games. He could be our 2nd line center two or three years down the line. He's one to watch in Hamilton this year.

Pierre Gauthier is a risk taker. See the Halak for Eller trade, he liked to trade for prospects. Trading for Holland is one of those nice risks.

If we trade Bourque for a 2nd, which is possible under my plan of deliberately padding the stats of veterans we want to trade, then we effectively get 3 2nd rounders for Cammalleri.

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Old
08-07-2012, 02:18 PM
  #674
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Originally Posted by tinyzombies View Post
A two year tank would be even better.
Technically this would be a two-year tank since we effectively tanked last year when Martin was fired.

My thread and my argumentation is rooted in a great optimism, what Alan Greenspan might call an irrational exuberance.

I believe that with just one additional stocking of great prospects like this year, and with a reasonable shuffling of veterans to clear cap space, this team will be in a position to transition to a perennial contender on the level of where the New York Rangers and the Los Angeles Kings are now.

Other people might look at the 3rd worst team in the NHL and think a 3-year rebuild might be necessary.

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Old
08-07-2012, 02:24 PM
  #675
Frozenice
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lafleurs Guy View Post
Reports from last season were that their GM wanted to rebuild but ownership wanted to try to make the playoffs.

Such a shame we wasted Cammy for a 2nd with them. The 2nd will be nice if they finish low, but a 1st would've been so much better. And there's no way he wasn't worth a 1st to somebody out there. Plus we saddled ourselves with Bourque (a guy who's the same age and actually has a longer deal.) Totally stupid...
If we would've got a late 2012 1st for Cammy, we most likely would've of drafted Collberg and then with our 2nd round pick there's a good chance we draft Thrower, so a 1st would probably been the same as a 2nd. I'm not sure a team would trade a 2013 1st for Cammy last year, I think most teams would know better than to do that.

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