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2013 NHL Draft in case of Lockout

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Old
08-10-2012, 09:34 PM
  #1
Trae
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2013 NHL Draft in case of Lockout

I was wondering if anybody could verify that this is how the breakdown of lottery balls would go for the 2013 draft assuming there is a lockout. I never followed the draft closely until after 2005 and despite looking it up, I still have a question: If a team was in the playoffs more than once in the past 3 years, does that mean they only get 1 ball? Because that is how I have done it below, but I am still unsure. And if there was, by some ridiculous chance, a full season lockout, do you think the NHL would go with this same method (including the snake draft)? If not, does anybody have an idea for a better system?

This is what I was going by:
Quote:
The Draft Drawing, a weighted lottery system, was used to determine the order of selection for all seven rounds of the Entry Draft. Under the weighted lottery system, the clubs that neither qualified for the Stanley Cup Playoffs in each of the 2001-02, 2002-03 and 2003-04 seasons, nor were awarded the first overall selection in each of the 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2004 Entry Drafts, had the greatest chance of receiving the first overall selection, 6.3 per cent.
http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=26401

Anaheim (1 playoff appearance)
Boston (3 playoff appearances)
Buffalo (2 playoff appearances)
Calgary (0 playoff appearances)
Carolina (0 playoff appearances)
Chicago (3 playoff appearances)
Colorado (1 playoff appearance)
Columbus (0 playoff appearances)
Dallas (0 playoff appearances)
Detroit (3 playoff appearances)
Edmonton (0 playoff appearances, 3 first overall picks,)
Florida (1 playoff appearance)
Los Angeles (3 playoff appearances)
Minnesota (0 playoff appearances)
Montreal (2 playoff appearances)
Nashville (3 playoff appearances)
New Jersey (2 playoff appearances)
New York I. (0 playoff appearances, 1 first overall pick)
New York R. (2 playoff appearances)
Ottawa (2 playoff appearances)
Philadelphia (3 playoff appearances)
Phoenix (3 playoff appearances)
Pittsburgh (3 playoff appearances)
San Jose (3 playoff appearances)
St. Louis (1 playoff appearance)
Tampa Bay (1 playoff appearance)
Toronto (0 playoff appearances)
Vancouver (3 playoff appearances)
Washington (3 playoff appearances)
Winnipeg (0 playoff appearances)

TEAMS WITH THREE BALLS (7)
Calgary, Carolina, Columbus, Dallas, Minnesota, Toronto, Winnipeg

TEAMS WITH TWO BALLS (6)
Anaheim, Colorado, Florida, New York (I), St. Louis, Tampa Bay

TEAMS WITH ONE BALL (17)
Boston, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Edmonton, Los Angeles, Montreal, Nashville, New Jersey, New York (R), Ottawa, Philadelphia, Phoenix, Pittsburgh, San Jose, Vancouver, Washington



Last edited by Trae: 08-11-2012 at 10:23 AM.
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Old
08-10-2012, 10:25 PM
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HABS2DCUP
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I really hope your wrong... BEcause if the Habs only have one ball then our chances of landing a top 5 pick are verrry slim. If there was a half season, how would the lottery work? The regular way?

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08-10-2012, 10:30 PM
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Marc the Habs Fan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HABS2DCUP View Post
If there was a half season, how would the lottery work? The regular way?
Of course...

It would not shock me if the NHL just adopts the same system as 2005 if there is no season at all. Let's hope we never have to contemplate it.

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08-10-2012, 10:54 PM
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Trae
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HABS2DCUP View Post
I really hope your wrong... BEcause if the Habs only have one ball then our chances of landing a top 5 pick are verrry slim. If there was a half season, how would the lottery work? The regular way?
Well, that's kind of why I was asking, I'm not sure if 2/3 appearances means two balls or one. Based on the quote, it seems anything more than 1/3 warrants only one single ball. Either way, it's not going to favor Montreal with three balls, that's for sure.

One thing that bothers me, yet intrigues me, is the fact that a team with more than one 1st rounder will greatly increase their chances at a top 3 pick, especially depending on what team's pick they have. If there's a lockout, i would imagine the prices if 1st rounders would greatly increase.

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08-10-2012, 10:57 PM
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I believe this is correct. The Oilers are the only team to have picked first overall in these past 3 years, so the Islanders have 3 balls.

3 balls: 8 teams with a 5.88% chance at first overall
Dallas
Calgary
Winnipeg
Toronto
New York Islanders
Minnesota
Columbus
Carolina

2 balls: 5 teams with a 3.92% chance at first overall
Florida
Tampa Bay
St. Louis
Colorado
Anaheim

1 ball: 17 teams with a 1.96% chance at first overall
Edmonton
Washington
Philadelphia
New York Rangers
Boston
New Jersey
Ottawa
Buffalo
Vancouver
Phoenix
Nashville
Detroit
Chicago
San Jose
Los Angeles
Montreal
Pittsburgh

Total balls: 51

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Old
08-10-2012, 11:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trae View Post
One thing that bothers me, yet intrigues me, is the fact that a team with more than one 1st rounder will greatly increase their chances at a top 3 pick, especially depending on what team's pick they have.
How about you just come out and say that it's somehow not fair that the Blue Jackets will have effectively five balls in such a lottery? Because we're the only team that has anyone else's 2013 first rounders.

Frankly, though, I'd rather just play the season. A less-than-ten-percent chance at the first overall pick does not strike me as something to desperately hope for. We already lost a nearly 50/50 draw as is.

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08-10-2012, 11:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Viqsi View Post
How about you just come out and say that it's somehow not fair that the Blue Jackets will have effectively five balls in such a lottery? Because we're the only team that has anyone else's 2013 first rounders.

Frankly, though, I'd rather just play the season.
To be 100% completely honest, I didn't give two ***** about what teams had picks, nor did I know that Columbus was the only team that had more than one pick. I got nothing against Columbus, if anything, they deserve it haha. My post was more about me thinking how hard it will be to acquire 1st's if GM's have a feeling this system will be implemented once again. If a team like Calgary (who's better players age another year) go into a lockout, it might be best to sell some of these assets, but 1st's will be much more valuable, even for contenders to give up. That's what bothers me. You pointing out a team like Columbus with more picks is the intriguing part, it's exciting!

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08-10-2012, 11:18 PM
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Columbus probably could have half of all the balls in the lottery and they'd probably still lose to a Canadian team


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08-10-2012, 11:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ashasx View Post
I believe this is correct. The Oilers are the only team to have picked first overall in these past 3 years, so the Islanders have 3 balls.

3 balls: 8 teams with a 5.88% chance at first overall
Dallas
Calgary
Winnipeg
Toronto
New York Islanders
Minnesota
Columbus
Carolina

2 balls: 5 teams with a 3.92% chance at first overall
Florida
Tampa Bay
St. Louis
Colorado
Anaheim

1 ball: 17 teams with a 1.96% chance at first overall
Edmonton
Washington
Philadelphia
New York Rangers
Boston
New Jersey
Ottawa
Buffalo
Vancouver
Phoenix
Nashville
Detroit
Chicago
San Jose
Los Angeles
Montreal
Pittsburgh

Total balls: 51
I am pretty sure the drafts reach back 4 years and the playoff appearances only 3, meaning Islanders would only get 2 balls, no?

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08-10-2012, 11:58 PM
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The only good thing about a lock out. The Red Wings have a chance at MacKinnon, Jones, or another top pick!

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08-11-2012, 01:02 AM
  #11
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Originally Posted by sully61 View Post
The only good thing about a lock out. The Red Wings have a chance at MacKinnon, Jones, or another top pick!
Yea, like, next to none.

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08-11-2012, 01:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Trae View Post
I am pretty sure the drafts reach back 4 years and the playoff appearances only 3, meaning Islanders would only get 2 balls, no?
This is correct, using that template.

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08-11-2012, 06:08 AM
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nexttothemoon
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Ya with the Isles only having 2 balls... that makes the total 50 balls.

Easy to compute the odds. Any team with 1 ball has a 2% chance at #1, 2 balls equals a 4% chance at #1 and 3 balls equals a 6% chance at #1.

It's still a crapshoot overall because even those teams with 3 balls instead of 1 can still lose out to a "1 baller" team because of the luck of the lotto machine. Just look at Edmonton getting the #1 pick 3 years in a row... that was slim odds as well and it still happened.

The big benefit of this type of draft is that every team has at least 1 ball so any team has a shot at a top 10 pick... makes for an exciting lottery draw, especially in a year with so many apparently high end prospects available.

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08-11-2012, 10:28 AM
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It would really suck for a team who is actually rebuilding, or really needs to, to end up picking outside of the top 15 whereas if they were playing the season, they would have a top 5 pick or something.

What if there was a 5 ball system or something to create better odds for the weaker teams yet would still give a fair chance to all teams at getting a high draft pick?

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08-11-2012, 10:32 AM
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Sean Monahan
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Worked out for Pittsburgh before

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08-11-2012, 01:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Viqsi View Post
How about you just come out and say that it's somehow not fair that the Blue Jackets will have effectively five balls in such a lottery? Because we're the only team that has anyone else's 2013 first rounders.

Frankly, though, I'd rather just play the season. A less-than-ten-percent chance at the first overall pick does not strike me as something to desperately hope for. We already lost a nearly 50/50 draw as is.
why do you think everyone is out to get the blue jackets? they suck, no one cares about them or carries any ill will toward them.

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08-11-2012, 02:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Make It Biznasty View Post
why do you think everyone is out to get the blue jackets? they suck, no one cares about them
This sort of dismissal would be a large part why...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Make It Biznasty View Post
or carries any ill will toward them.
...and this isn't true, unless you consider being constantly told you don't deserve a team and it should be removed from the league to somehow not be "ill will".

I'm just more bitter than usual of late 'cause for way too many people, the solution to "we might all lose hockey for a while!" is "just take away hockey forever for these other second-class fans, they won't miss it."

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08-11-2012, 02:33 PM
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Bravid Nonahan
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If there is a full year lockout some of those teams won't have any balls...cause they won't exist.

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08-11-2012, 02:47 PM
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Does it even matter? Gary Bettman will just rig the lottery and give Pittsburgh the 1st overall.


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08-11-2012, 02:49 PM
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No Fun Shogun
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Well at least Edmonton probably wouldn't win again....

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08-11-2012, 02:50 PM
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The only thing I know for sure is if a lockout happens and Colombus does not get the first overall pick I will know for sure that team is cursed. That would suck

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08-11-2012, 02:58 PM
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If Phoenix gets 1st overall we'll all know it's rigged and go burn Gary at the stake

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08-12-2012, 01:48 AM
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Well at least Edmonton probably wouldn't win again....

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08-12-2012, 10:35 AM
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If Edmonton won again, the league would actually have to start ensuring Edmonton doesn't win it by tampering with the draft so that people don't start thinking that they tamper with the draft lol.

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08-12-2012, 11:08 AM
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If Edmonton won again, the league would actually have to start ensuring Edmonton doesn't win it by tampering with the draft so that people don't start thinking that they tamper with the draft lol.
I agree

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