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How to Better Credit and Evaluate Injured Forwards (Adjusted Lists from 70s-2012)

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Old
08-13-2012, 03:57 PM
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Czech Your Math
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How to Better Credit and Evaluate Injured Forwards (Adjusted Lists from 70s-2012)

How can we better evaluate forwards which were injured and still had excellent seasons? This is a difficult question which has no exact answer. It is especially difficult to balance a player's ability and his value.

Many often use PPG or pro-rated seasons to indicate ability. This seems reasonable at first glance, but is it really? It may be much easier to maintain a higher PPG over a limited number of games. We can't be certain how injured players are, whether they play most/all of the season, or miss a substantial number of games. This makes fair comparison much more difficult. It may even more problematic for players who miss a large portion of the season and/or have a (adjusted or non-adjusted) PPG that significantly exceeds there established peak over large majorities of multiple seasons. For some instances of high PPG over stretches of a half season or less, during the past two decades, see this thread:

Best Half Seasons

Players that miss games have less general value than if they didn't miss some/all of those games and compared to other players which didn't as well. However, a team is able to replace that player while he is injured, so that may lessen the effect to some degree.

Others have used various methods to navigate this dilemma:

1) Simply give a player credit for his PPG over a full season.
2) Use a player's PPG ranking and only credit him for the games he plays, then sum the games over an arbitrary threshold ranking (e.g. 55 games at a top 10 pace).
3) Calculate how many total points he was over an arbitrary PPG threshold. IOW, 60 points in 40 games is 20 points over 1.00 PPG: 60 - (40 * 1.00) = +20
4) Ignore this thorny problem and use total points as the best indication of the player's ability/value for that season.

I'm presenting the results of a couple of methods. One is commonly used already, and is only applicable to multiple seasons. That is to add the actual games and actual points (in this case adjusted for league gpg & assist/goal, but not schedule) to calculate a PPG for an arbitrary number of games over multiple seasons. These season are not necessarily (and in fact not likely to be) consecutive. The other is not commonly used, and that is using the harmonic mean of the player's actual points and his points pro-rated to 82 GP (both adjusted, including schedule). The formula for this method is:

Harmonic Points (HP) = 2 * (AP * PP) / (AP + PP) , where AP = Actual adjusted points and PP = Pro-rated adjusted points

I don't claim these methods are clearly superior to all others, but believe they provide fair alternative methods of evaluating an injured player's ability and crediting him, at least partially, for games missed. Players starting their careers in the 70s or after were included in the lists that follow. I used simple adjusted points (to 6.00 gpg and 1.667 assists/goal).


Last edited by Czech Your Math: 08-15-2012 at 08:12 AM.
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08-13-2012, 04:03 PM
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These are players' adjusted points/82 GP, using actual games and simple adjusted points with a minimum of 300 GP over multiple seasons:

Rank PLAYER GP Pts/82
1 Gretzky 314 167.8
2 Lemieux 326 167.2
3 Jagr 307 139.3
4 Lafleur 302 125.3
5 Crosby 353 123.9
6 Lindros 307 122.4
7 Forsberg 338 121.3
8 Sakic 344 119.6
9 Ovechkin 314 118.9
10 Selanne 305 117.2
11 Malkin 306 116.2
12 Dionne 320 115.7
13 Thornton 322 115.1
14 Yzerman 301 113.7
15 Trottier 301 112.5
16 Kariya 340 112.1
17 Oates 340 111.6
18 Bossy 303 108.5
19 Bure 337 108.2
20 LaFontaine 313 105.4
21 Iginla 316 105.0
22 Clarke 305 104.7
23 St.Louis 328 104.6
24 Turgeon 344 104.3
25 Heatley 312 104.1
26 Naslund 313 104.0
27 Mogilny 304 103.9
28 Br. Hull 367 103.1
29 Stastny 307 102.9
30 Messier 301 102.8
31 Francis 363 102.6
32 Coffey 325 102.6
33 Kurri 370 102.4
34 Palffy 346 102.1
35 Fleury 343 101.8
36 Alfredsson 358 101.1
37 LeClair 322 100.5
38 Spezza 351 100.1
39 Recchi 313 99.9
40 Kovalchuk 315 99.8
41 Fedorov 308 99.5
42 D. Sedin 308 99.1
43 Kovalev 306 98.2
44 H. Sedin 328 98.0
45 D. Savard 318 98.0
46 Sittler 305 97.9
47 Datsyuk 317 97.6
48 Perreault 308 97.4
49 Demitra 357 97.4
50 Modano 361 97.3

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08-13-2012, 04:09 PM
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This is the same method for 425+ games:

Rank PLAYER GP Pts/82
1 Lemieux 458 164.3
2 Gretzky 473 164.3
3 Jagr 447 135.1
4 Lafleur 462 121.5
5 Crosby 434 119.5
6 Forsberg 493 117.5
7 Lindros 425 116.4
8 Sakic 425 116.2
9 Dionne 480 112.1
10 Selanne 462 112.0
11 Ovechkin 475 110.6
12 Yzerman 445 109.5
13 Thornton 467 109.4
14 Malkin 427 107.5
15 Trottier 452 106.2
16 Oates 453 106.1
17 Kariya 488 105.4
18 Bossy 461 104.5
19 Bure 435 103.3
20 Br. Hull 427 101.3
21 Messier 426 100.7
22 Turgeon 501 100.5
23 Palffy 460 99.7
24 Stastny 464 99.6
25 Mogilny 437 99.6
26 Iginla 479 99.5
27 Alfredsson 426 99.5
28 Francis 438 99.4
29 Fleury 425 99.4
30 St.Louis 487 99.3
31 Kovalchuk 470 99.1
32 Kurri 450 99.1
33 Coffey 481 99.1
34 Heatley 425 98.8
35 LaFontaine 455 98.7
36 Clarke 460 98.7
37 Recchi 479 97.1
38 LeClair 450 97.1
39 Modano 439 96.4
40 Fedorov 425 96.2
41 D. Savard 436 96.1
42 Spezza 433 95.4
43 Datsyuk 443 95.3
44 Naslund 474 95.0
45 Demitra 425 94.7
46 Sittler 453 94.1
47 Tkachuk 430 93.9
48 Sundin 473 93.8
49 Robitaille 473 93.6
50 D. Sedin 462 93.4

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08-13-2012, 04:15 PM
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This is the same method for 640+ GP:

Rank PLAYER GP Pts/82
1 Gretzky 693 159.2
2 Lemieux 640 151.1
3 Jagr 646 129.1
4 Forsberg 649 111.8
5 Sakic 652 110.0
6 Lafleur 647 109.4
7 Selanne 668 106.5
8 Dionne 701 105.1
9 Yzerman 656 103.6
10 Thornton 698 102.5
11 Lindros 678 102.2
12 Oates 640 100.7
13 Bossy 689 100.5
14 Kariya 652 99.0
15 Turgeon 648 98.0
16 Br. Hull 664 97.2
17 Messier 653 97.0
18 Trottier 690 96.9
19 Alfredsson 652 95.6
20 Palffy 646 95.3
21 Francis 653 95.3
22 Coffey 641 94.7
23 St.Louis 651 94.5
24 Recchi 641 94.1
25 Stastny 675 93.9
26 Mogilny 674 93.7
27 Modano 678 93.2
28 Bure 646 93.1
29 Iginla 713 92.8
30 LaFontaine 640 92.7
31 Kurri 679 92.1
32 Sundin 699 92.0
33 D. Savard 660 91.8
34 Kovalchuk 698 91.5
35 Tkachuk 672 91.3
36 Fleury 673 91.2
37 Robitaille 713 90.3
38 Clarke 682 90.3
39 Fedorov 659 90.0
40 Heatley 669 89.8
41 Datsyuk 662 89.7
42 Sittler 683 88.7
43 Perreault 669 88.5
44 Hossa 688 88.3
45 Demitra 644 88.2
46 Roenick 668 88.0
47 LeClair 642 87.6
48 Gilmour 686 87.6
49 Hawerchuk 714 87.4
50 Weight 649 86.8

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08-13-2012, 04:21 PM
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These are the average of the Harmonic Points (HP) for each player's best 3 seasons:

Rank PLAYER B3HP
1 Gretzky 167.2
2 Lemieux 161.7
3 Jagr 139.6
4 Lafleur 123.4
5 Ovechkin 120.5
6 Malkin 119.2
7 Sakic 119.1
8 Lindros 117.6
9 Thornton 117.5
10 Dionne 117.5
11 Crosby 116.5
12 Selanne 116.3
13 Forsberg 115.7
14 Yzerman 115.0
15 Trottier 113.6
16 Oates 112.1
17 Kariya 109.8
18 Bossy 108.8
19 Francis 108.0
20 Clarke 106.6
21 Iginla 106.4
22 Naslund 106.4
23 St.Louis 106.3
24 Kurri 104.8
25 Br. Hull 104.4
26 Bure 104.0
27 Coffey 103.8
28 Heatley 103.3
29 Fedorov 102.9
30 Stastny 102.8
31 H. Sedin 102.6
32 Stamkos 102.6
33 Nicholls 102.2
34 LaFontaine 102.1
35 LeClair 101.9
36 Mogilny 101.6
37 Fleury 101.5
38 Messier 101.1
39 Alfredsson 101.0
40 D. Savard 100.0
41 D. Sedin 99.9
42 Recchi 99.9
43 Palffy 99.8
44 Lecavalier 99.5
45 Demitra 98.8
46 Kovalchuk 98.7
47 Spezza 98.6
48 Datsyuk 98.3
49 Turgeon 97.9
50 Sittler 97.7

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08-13-2012, 04:25 PM
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These are the avg. of best 5 HP seasons:

Rank PLAYER B5HP
1 Gretzky 164.6
2 Lemieux 151.8
3 Jagr 131.9
4 Lafleur 120.2
5 Dionne 114.5
6 Sakic 113.4
7 Forsberg 111.9
8 Ovechkin 111.8
9 Selanne 111.6
10 Lindros 110.4
11 Thornton 110.4
12 Crosby 108.9
13 Malkin 107.1
14 Yzerman 107.1
15 Trottier 105.9
16 Oates 104.6
17 Bossy 103.9
18 Kariya 103.6
19 St.Louis 101.6
20 Francis 101.3
21 Iginla 100.8
22 Coffey 100.8
23 Bure 100.1
24 Clarke 99.5
25 Stastny 99.4
26 Br. Hull 98.7
27 LeClair 98.7
28 Heatley 98.6
29 Kurri 98.5
30 Messier 98.2
31 Fleury 97.6
32 Kovalchuk 97.4
33 Recchi 97.3
34 Alfredsson 96.6
35 Naslund 96.6
36 Mogilny 96.5
37 Fedorov 95.8
38 Palffy 95.5
39 LaFontaine 95.2
40 D. Savard 94.9
41 H. Sedin 94.8
42 Turgeon 94.8
43 Robitaille 93.7
44 Perreault 93.6
45 Sittler 93.2
46 Sundin 93.2
47 Datsyuk 93.1
48 Spezza 93.1
49 D. Sedin 92.9
50 Hossa 92.8


Last edited by Czech Your Math: 08-13-2012 at 04:30 PM.
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08-13-2012, 04:29 PM
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This is the ranking for each player in the 5 categories (blank means does not qualify in that category).

PLAYER 300+ 425+ 640+ 3HP 5HP
Gretzky 1 2 1 1 1
Lemieux 2 1 2 2 2
Jagr 3 3 3 3 3
Lafleur 4 4 6 4 4
Sakic 8 8 5 7 6
Lindros 6 7 11 8 10
Forsberg 7 6 4 13 7
Crosby 5 5 11 12
Ovechkin 9 11 5 8
Dionne 12 9 8 10 5
Selanne 10 10 7 12 9
Malkin 11 14 6 13
Thornton 13 13 10 9 11
Yzerman 14 12 9 14 14
Trottier 15 15 18 15 15
Oates 17 16 12 16 16
Kariya 16 17 14 17 18
Bossy 18 18 13 18 17
Bure 19 19 28 26 23
Iginla 21 26 29 21 21
St.Louis 23 30 23 23 19
Francis 31 28 21 19 20
HullBr 28 20 16 25 26
Clarke 22 36 38 20 24
Stamkos 72 32
Stastny 29 24 25 30 25
Coffey 32 33 22 27 22
Heatley 25 34 40 28 28
Kurri 33 32 31 24 29
Messier 30 21 17 38 30
Mogilny 27 25 26 36 36
Naslund 26 44 55 22 35
LaFontaine 20 35 30 34 39
Fleury 35 29 36 37 31
Alfredsson 36 27 19 39 34
LeClair 37 38 47 35 27
Turgeon 24 22 15 49 42
Palffy 34 23 20 43 38
Fedorov 41 40 39 29 37
Kovalchuk 40 31 34 46 32
Recchi 39 37 24 42 33
SavardD 45 41 33 40 40
Sedin H. 44 52 54 31 41
Spezza 38 42 47 48
Sedin D. 42 50 64 41 49
Datsyuk 47 43 41 48 47
Sittler 46 46 42 50 45
Nicholls 51 54 53 33 53
Demitra 49 45 45 45 55
Perreault 48 51 43 52 44
Robitaille 52 49 37 55 43
Modano 50 39 27 63 51
Sundin 55 48 32 59 46
Gilmour 53 56 48 51 52
Kovalev 43 61 58 54 57
Hossa 56 57 44 57 50
Hawerchuk 58 58 49 53 54
Tkachuk 59 47 35 65 56
Lecavalier 60 67 56 44 59
Weight 63 60 50 62 63
Roenick 66 63 46 68 62


Last edited by Czech Your Math: 08-13-2012 at 04:51 PM.
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08-13-2012, 05:40 PM
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i love this. i am in a rush, and didn't read through your first post, because i knew what was coming. Explain Harmonic Points a bit, and also explain ..... let me just ask... you took their highest points-p-game seasons one by one until they added to/or above the individual thresholds?

Love the lists. I am going to save them.

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08-13-2012, 05:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tombombadil View Post
i love this. i am in a rush, and didn't read through your first post, because i knew what was coming. Explain Harmonic Points a bit, and also explain ..... let me just ask... you took their highest points-p-game seasons one by one until they added to/or above the individual thresholds?

Love the lists. I am going to save them.
I posted the formula in the OP. Basically, it's a mathematical compromise between actual adj. points and pro-rated adj. points, which allows for some extra credit for injured players, without going overboard. One could simply average the two or use the geometric mean (multiply the two and then take the square root). However, the HP method seems better, because it doesn't favor injured players too much and ensures no weird results (e.g. a player playing 2 games and having 5 points will not end up in first).

I did exactly as you said for the game threshold calculations. The only difference is that in some cases, a higher PPG season may actually have less impact, if the threshold would be reached either way. It's hard to explain, but basically if the additional seasonal PPGs are similar, but one has more games, it's possible for the resulting PPG for the threshold seasons to actually be better by including a lower PPG season. This is not the norm, but I did find several examples of this while crunching the numbers, and generally used whichever way resulted in a higher PPG (usually not much difference, and if it result was ~0.1 lower with many more games, sometimes used method with many more games).

AFAIK, the lists are accurate, but I was going quickly, so errors are possible. I did discover an error in sorting, which probably caused me to lose the data for avg. of top 8 HP seasons. Oh well, at least it didn't happen sooner.


Last edited by Czech Your Math: 08-13-2012 at 10:26 PM.
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08-13-2012, 07:05 PM
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got it, thanks. got to sit down and read it slower. This is perfect, the first list is probably the one that means the most to me, but all 5 are interesting! Great work, and a much better system than mine...AND I didn't have to do it! It was waiting for me when I got home from work!

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08-13-2012, 07:14 PM
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Interesting **** for sure. Good work.

Did not think Crosby would be that high. Damn.

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08-13-2012, 08:19 PM
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Did not expect to see Alfredsson in your lists... maybe Captain Ottawa is HHOF-borderline material objectively, as well as in the hearts of Sens fans.

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08-13-2012, 09:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by metalfoot View Post
Did not expect to see Alfredsson in your lists... maybe Captain Ottawa is HHOF-borderline material objectively, as well as in the hearts of Sens fans.
He's at least borderline in the brains of most I believe. I don't think he should be a lock, unless they are still using the standard for players of the 80s, 70s, etc.

He's also the type of player that will be helped most by something like Harmonic Points. He still played large majorities of seasons at a high level, but was frequently injured. HP will not turn a half season into near a full season, nor 2/3 or 3/4 of a season into one. It will give players that were hurt a significant boost to their point totals for each of those seasons.

Here's a list of players whose best 3 & 5 HP seasons increased the most over their actual best 3 & 5 seasons:

PLAYER +%3 +%5
Lindros 5% 9%
Lemieux 6% 6%
LaFontaine 6% 5%
Taylor 6% 4%
Oates 6% 5%
Spezza 5% 5%
Kurri 5% 4%
Getzlaf 4% 5%
Alfredsson 5% 4%
Crosby 2% 6%
Bertuzzi 4% 3%
Mogilny 4% 4%
Sedin D. 4% 3%
Kovalev 4% 3%
Forsberg 2% 4%
Zetterberg 3% 3%
Palffy 3% 2%
Kariya 3% 3%
Selanne 2% 3%
Tkachuk 3% 3%
Ovechkin 3% 2%
Francis 3% 2%
Bure 2% 2%
Turgeon 2% 2%
Malkin 2% 3%
Gaborik 2% 2%
HullBr 2% 3%
Bossy 3% 2%
Demitra 1% 3%
Trottier 2% 3%
Modano 2% 2%
Messier 2% 2%
Fedorov 2% 2%
Fleury 2% 2%
Iginla 2% 2%
Kovalchuk 2% 2%
Stastny 2% 2%
Lemaire 1% 2%
Perreault 2% 2%
Sittler 2% 2%
Sakic 2% 1%
Goulet 1% 2%
Heatley 1% 2%
Datsyuk 1% 2%
Naslund 1% 2%
SavardM 0% 3%
Shanahan 1% 1%
Coffey 1% 1%
Clarke 1% 2%
LeClair 1% 1%
Thornton 1% 1%
Elias 0% 2%
Lafleur 1% 1%

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08-13-2012, 09:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jax00 View Post
Did not think Crosby would be that high.
The PPG lists using actual games are tailor-made for the oft-injured, like Lemieux, Lindros, Crosby, etc. Those are more an indication of ability, but make the player do it on a per-game basis over multiple seasons, which is better than "he had a great PPG in 30 games, let's equate that to a full season" type of logic.

The HP lists are more an indication of value, and they only help injured players so much, but that's often enough, given the razor-thin margins between a lot of these great players.


Last edited by Czech Your Math: 08-13-2012 at 10:28 PM.
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08-13-2012, 10:20 PM
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For comparison purposes, these are averages of the best 3 and best 5 simple adjusted points seasons (gpg, a/g, schedule only) without any further credit for injury:

PLAYER Top 3 Top 5
Gretzky 165.7 163.3
Lemieux 152.7 142.7
Jagr 139.1 131.5
Lafleur 122.6 118.6
Dionne 117.5 114.5
Sakic 117.0 111.9
Ovechkin 117.3 109.4
Thornton 116.1 109.1
Selanne 113.6 108.5
Malkin 117.4 104.0
Yzerman 114.8 106.3
Forsberg 113.1 107.8
Crosby 114.4 102.8
Trottier 111.9 103.2
Lindros 112.1 101.2
Bossy 106.1 102.1
St.Louis 106.3 101.6
Kariya 106.8 100.9
Oates 106.1 99.7
Francis 105.1 99.3
Clarke 105.6 97.8
Iginla 103.9 99.3
Coffey 102.5 99.4
Naslund 105.4 94.8
Sedin H. 102.6 94.8
Stamkos 102.6
HullBr 102.4 96.2
Heatley 102.3 96.6
Nicholls 101.7 92.1
Bure 101.5 98.0
Fedorov 101.3 93.5
Stastny 100.9 97.8
LeClair 100.6 97.5
SavardD 99.6 94.5
Recchi 99.5 96.4
Kurri 99.5 94.7
Fleury 99.3 95.8
Messier 99.0 96.2
Lecavalier 99.0 89.5
Mogilny 98.1 92.7
Demitra 98.0 88.5
Datsyuk 97.6 91.2
Gilmour 97.2 91.2
Kovalchuk 97.1 95.5
Hawerchuk 96.8 91.4
Palffy 96.7 93.3
Robitaille 96.7 93.4
Alfredsson 96.5 92.9
LaFontaine 96.4 90.6
Sittler 96.2 91.5
Sedin D. 95.8 90.5

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08-13-2012, 10:47 PM
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i don't feel that adding up what they could actually produce in a time frame means it's made for the injured players. I think it's the most direct way of measuring their ability to produce. Staying healthy is an incredibly important asset to a GM or owner, just lie faceoffs, penalty killing, and physical play - but production over an evened time period best shows.... uhhh, ability to produce in an evened time period!

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08-13-2012, 11:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tombombadil View Post
i don't feel that adding up what they could actually produce in a time frame means it's made for the injured players. I think it's the most direct way of measuring their ability to produce. Staying healthy is an incredibly important asset to a GM or owner, just lie faceoffs, penalty killing, and physical play - but production over an evened time period best shows.... uhhh, ability to produce in an evened time period!
It's not really an even time period though. For instance, Crosby played 353 games over 6 different seasons. Other players had 300+ games in 4 seasons, so may have been much more valuable. These aren't necessarily consecutive seasons either. That's why it's more a measure of peak/prime ability than of value.

Harmonic Points is over an even number of seasons and compensates the player (probably too much in some cases) for playing fewer games and his team being able to replace him in those games, and so add value that way. It's not designed to directly measure value, but it tends to do so a lot more than the per-game calculation does.

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