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How do we get from here to a cup?

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Old
08-18-2012, 12:37 AM
  #26
ZZamboni
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Imlach ... I've been wanting to tell you two words ... Michio Kaku





(I read your "introduce yourself" )

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08-18-2012, 12:45 AM
  #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ZZamboni View Post
Imlach ... I've been wanting to tell you two words ... Michio Kaku





(I read your "introduce yourself" )
I own every book he's written and I picked up a copy of the field equations he wrote as his PhD thesis. Best scientific author out there in terms of accessibility. Shocked someone knows who he is. A glimmer of intelligence arises in the bleak sea of humanity. Thanks for suprising me, it doesn't happen often enough. Sorry for OT.

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Old
08-18-2012, 12:51 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Imlach a cup View Post
I own every book he's written and I picked up a copy of the field equations he wrote as his PhD thesis. Best scientific author out there in terms of accessibility. Shocked someone knows who he is. A glimmer of intelligence arises in the bleak sea of humanity. Thanks for suprising me, it doesn't happen often enough. Sorry for OT.
I'll continue in the OT....

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08-18-2012, 07:36 AM
  #29
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Originally Posted by kirby11 View Post
Hopefully, in say a couple of years, we look like:
Poms-Grigs-Armia
Stafford-CoHo-Ennis (2 scoring lines, trying to have a good mix of speed, size, and playmaking ability)
That is a butter-soft top six forward group. Grigorenko and Armia's size are certainly welcome.

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08-18-2012, 09:41 AM
  #30
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I think the entire question comes down to developing our forward corps. I target the season 2015-2016, maybe the year after.

I don't think we have the offensive talent, and I don't think it's waiting here already, unless your window is closer to a decade. That's when your fresh draftees will be in their prime. So I think we're going to need to go out of house to nab at least one high-end offensive talent, perhaps two. I think Patrick Kane could be one of those guys for us in 3 years, but I'd like to see us add another. The Sedins both go UFA in 2015, and if they're still looking for a cup, Vancouver is not going in the right direction and they see all Buffalo lacks are high end forwards, they might take the gamble on us. Pavelski goes UFA the same year. Everybody's mentioned Getzlaf and Perry. Filppula is also going UFA next season.

Let's presume you get two of the above, for roster purposes, below.

I think the 2-3 year time frame is too optimistic if you're banking on guys just drafted being a meaningful part of the team. Yes, next season we might see Armia, Grigorenko and Girgensons in the lineup. If we're lucky, for part of the season, probably. But unless you're expecting Crosby-esque feats from them, don't expect them to carry a cup winner until they're a little more seasoned. Grigorenko and Girgensons will be 21 by the time the 2015-16 season rolls around. That's about as early as I could imagine them being ready to play a significant role in the Stanley Cup Finals. Seriously, isn't the age when Crosby centered a top line to the Cup? Are we expecting more from our kids?

I see Hodgson as a 2C and Ennis as a fluke at C at the tail end of last year who'll end up a high skill winger.

Resign Pominville and Vanek. Besides boredom, there's really no reason to let them walk, unless you think Buffalo is going to attract better free agents. I don't.

I think our blueline will be fine if we let it develop as is. Tyler Myers will be 26, about the right age for him to start playing like a top 5 D-man in the league. Sekera will be 29. Ehrhoff will end the playoffs still being only 33. Presume 1 of your prospects steps in and rounds out a very solid, versatile top 4.

Goaltending is good enough either way we go on Enroth or Miller. If we let Miller walk, it'll be because we expect comparable play going forward from Enroth.



Vanek - Getzlaf/Sedin/Filppula - Sedin/Pavelski/Kane/Perry
Ennis - Hodgson - Armia/Stafford
Ott- Grigorenko - Pominville
Tropp - Girgensons - Foligno


Myers - Sekera
Ehrhoff - McNabb
Leduc - Pysyk (or bring in the scabs)


Miller/Enroth
Scab


Last edited by haseoke39: 08-18-2012 at 09:52 AM.
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Old
08-18-2012, 11:58 AM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Layne Staley View Post
Build around Ennis,Hodgson,Grigorenko,Girgensons,McNabb,Myers and Foligno.Hope that Enroth takes that next step.Miller is already 32, he isn't getting younger and we really need Enroth to solidify himself as a future franchise goalie.
And we all know goaltenders can't be competing for Cups in their mid- or late-30s.




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08-18-2012, 12:25 PM
  #32
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Dream sixteen. That's where I'm at.

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08-18-2012, 02:14 PM
  #33
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2015-2016 ish

Girgensons-Hodgson-Pominville
Duclair-Grigorenko-Armia
Foligno-Ennis-Stafford
Catenacci-Ott-Tropp/Kaleta

McNabb-Myers (the twin towers)
Sekera-Ehrhoff
G-L-Pysyk
Weber

Miller/Ullmark
Enroth

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Old
08-20-2012, 12:58 AM
  #34
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Originally Posted by jBuds View Post
Dream sixteen. That's where I'm at.
Yuss. Hopefully get the young'ns some playoff experience the next few seasons.

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08-20-2012, 12:00 PM
  #35
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Why wait?

1. Stay healthy.
2. Play like you give a crap. Finish the last 30-or so games of the season with a goal differential of +25 or more.
3. Make playoffs.
4. Stay healthy.
5. Win 16 games total before you lose 4 in any given 2-week span.

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08-20-2012, 01:58 PM
  #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zip15 View Post
And we all know goaltenders can't be competing for Cups in their mid- or late-30s.




You put up two irrelevant pictures as a response?

You named Tim Thomas and Martin Brodeur, good.Brodeur hasn't won a cup since 2003, when he was 31 years old (younger then Miller now).Between his 03 cup win and prior to this postseason, Brodeur hadn't won more then 5 playoff games in a single playoff.So again, I really don't know your reasoning of putting Brodeur there.

Cup Winners since lockout & goalie age

11-12 Kings Jonathan Quick 26
10-11 Bruins Tim Thomas 37
09-10 Blackhawks Antti Niemi 26
08-09 Penguins Marc-Andre Fleury 24
07-08 Red Wings Chris Osgood 35
06-07 Mighty Ducks JS Giguere 30
05-06 Hurricanes Cam Ward 22

Average age of cup winning goalie post lockout : 28.5

So since the lockout only 2 cup winners were over the age of 30.4 out of the 7 cup winning goalies were 26 and younger.Again, I don't understand what part of my statement is wrong?Miller is 32 years old and is getting up there in age.It's not an opinion its a fact.

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Old
08-20-2012, 03:26 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Layne Staley View Post
You put up two irrelevant pictures as a response?

You named Tim Thomas and Martin Brodeur, good.Brodeur hasn't won a cup since 2003, when he was 31 years old (younger then Miller now).Between his 03 cup win and prior to this postseason, Brodeur hadn't won more then 5 playoff games in a single playoff.So again, I really don't know your reasoning of putting Brodeur there.

Cup Winners since lockout & goalie age

11-12 Kings Jonathan Quick 26
10-11 Bruins Tim Thomas 37
09-10 Blackhawks Antti Niemi 26
08-09 Penguins Marc-Andre Fleury 24
07-08 Red Wings Chris Osgood 35
06-07 Mighty Ducks JS Giguere 30
05-06 Hurricanes Cam Ward 22

Average age of cup winning goalie post lockout : 28.5

So since the lockout only 2 cup winners were over the age of 30.4 out of the 7 cup winning goalies were 26 and younger.Again, I don't understand what part of my statement is wrong?Miller is 32 years old and is getting up there in age.It's not an opinion its a fact.
I don't think your numerical analysis is really that helpful. Lots of teams win cups in spite of their goaltending.

Elite goalies skew older than elite forwards and defensemen. You see a lot of guys hitting their breakout seasons around age 30. Average age of the Vezina winner, going back to '93, is 31 years old (hockey-reference.com helped). Over the last five seasons, average age of a nominee is 30.8 (had to scrounge those numbers up myself, or else I'd go back further).

Nobody knows whether or not Miller will fall off in the next few years. But Hasek hit his prime around 32. Brodeur won his first Vezina at 30. Thomas won his first at 34. A lot of goalies play at an elite level into their mid to late 30s. I'm not worried about Miller's age at all. He plays the kind of position where guys tend to get better into their mid-thirties.

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08-20-2012, 07:02 PM
  #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by haseoke39 View Post
I don't think your numerical analysis is really that helpful. Lots of teams win cups in spite of their goaltending.

Elite goalies skew older than elite forwards and defensemen. You see a lot of guys hitting their breakout seasons around age 30. Average age of the Vezina winner, going back to '93, is 31 years old (hockey-reference.com helped). Over the last five seasons, average age of a nominee is 30.8 (had to scrounge those numbers up myself, or else I'd go back further).

Nobody knows whether or not Miller will fall off in the next few years. But Hasek hit his prime around 32. Brodeur won his first Vezina at 30. Thomas won his first at 34. A lot of goalies play at an elite level into their mid to late 30s. I'm not worried about Miller's age at all. He plays the kind of position where guys tend to get better into their mid-thirties.
Ok your comparing Miller to Hasek and Brodeur (2 of the best 3 goalies in NHL history). Tim Thomas is a great goalie, but the Bruins coaching/system/personnel has a big contribution to that... Did you forget how dominant Rask was in 09-10? He put up stats just as good as Thomas in his best season.

Yes, there are plenty of goalies who play well into their late 30s... But your only kidding yourself if you think age doesn't detract from a lot of goalies as they get older.Look at the top 10 goalies in terms of SVP %, only 1 of them was over the age of 30.Last year only 3 of the top 10 were >30.

So yes, it's a big misconception that the top goalies each year are old, just simply not true. Hasek and Brodeur Are the two goalies that people point to who believe in that false belief. Most of the top goalies in the NHL are at their best from their mid 20s to early 30s. Miller is 32. He is coming off two declining seasons after winning the Vezina at age 29. No promises that he will ever return to Vezina form. I still don't understand why people get defensive when anyone brings up the possibility that Miller may be in a perpetual decline.

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08-20-2012, 07:28 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Layne Staley View Post
Ok your comparing Miller to Hasek and Brodeur (2 of the best 3 goalies in NHL history). Tim Thomas is a great goalie, but the Bruins coaching/system/personnel has a big contribution to that... Did you forget how dominant Rask was in 09-10? He put up stats just as good as Thomas in his best season.

Yes, there are plenty of goalies who play well into their late 30s... But your only kidding yourself if you think age doesn't detract from a lot of goalies as they get older.Look at the top 10 goalies in terms of SVP %, only 1 of them was over the age of 30.Last year only 3 of the top 10 were >30.

So yes, it's a big misconception that the top goalies each year are old, just simply not true. Hasek and Brodeur Are the two goalies that people point to who believe in that false belief. Most of the top goalies in the NHL are at their best from their mid 20s to early 30s. Miller is 32. He is coming off two declining seasons after winning the Vezina at age 29. No promises that he will ever return to Vezina form. I still don't understand why people get defensive when anyone brings up the possibility that Miller may be in a perpetual decline.
I'm not defensive against the idea that Miller may be in decline. I conceded it to you. I don't accept that he necessarily is. I showed that the Vezina is, on average, won and contended for by guys around age 31. Discard the specific examples, it doesn't matter as much as the larger trend. The Vezina caters to a higher age group than the Hart, and that tells you something about the development of goaltenders - more, I would argue, than the age of the cup winner. Extrapolate from that, and I believe your average 32 year old goalie has a couple years left to be in his "peak." We'll talk about what he's worth in his later thirties when we get there.

As for the evidence that Ryan Miller is in a downward spiral already, I don't buy it. Last year was mildly above average for him in both GAA and S%. He was every bit a world class goalie in the last half of the season, and there's some reason to believe his concussion impacted his first half numbers. I expect several more good seasons from him, which means GAA around 2.50 and S% around .917 - his average. Saying he's in decline because he's not matching his career year isn't giving him a fair shake - it was a career year! He's an above average goaltender who does well in the playoffs and has better hot streaks than most.

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08-20-2012, 08:15 PM
  #40
Zip15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Layne Staley View Post
You put up two irrelevant pictures as a response?

You named Tim Thomas and Martin Brodeur, good.Brodeur hasn't won a cup since 2003, when he was 31 years old (younger then Miller now). [/QUOTE]

What does that have to do with the fact that a Cup-winner and Cup-finalist in the previous two seasons were 37 and 40, respectively? You were suggesting that the Sabres need to begin moving on from Miller because he's *gasp* 32 years old! Man, I hope the Rangers have a succession plan in place for Lundqvist who'll be *gasp* 31 years-old next season.

The fact of the matter is goaltenders >30 can still compete for Cups.

What's most hilarious is that you're still clinging to the "hope" that "Enroth can turn into a franchise netminder." Other than one above-average season at the AHL level, the guy has shown no indication he can be an NHL starter, let alone a "franchise goaltender."

Quote:
Originally Posted by Layne Staley View Post
Cup Winners since lockout & goalie age

11-12 Kings Jonathan Quick 26
10-11 Bruins Tim Thomas 37
09-10 Blackhawks Antti Niemi 26
08-09 Penguins Marc-Andre Fleury 24
07-08 Red Wings Chris Osgood 35
06-07 Mighty Ducks JS Giguere 30
05-06 Hurricanes Cam Ward 22

Average age of cup winning goalie post lockout : 28.5
I can mold statistics to my argument, too.

Stanley Cup netminders the previous two seasons and age:

Thomas (37)
Luongo (32)
Brodeur (40)
Quick (26)

Average of Stanley Cup goaltenders the last two seasons: 33.75
Goaltenders 32 or older: 3 of 4

#Funwithstats

Quote:
Originally Posted by Layne Staley View Post
So since the lockout only 2 cup winners were over the age of 30.4 out of the 7 cup winning goalies were 26 and younger.Again, I don't understand what part of my statement is wrong?Miller is 32 years old and is getting up there in age.It's not an opinion its a fact.
See above. My facts are better than your facts. Again, fun with twisting stats.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Layne Staley View Post
Ok your comparing Miller to Hasek and Brodeur (2 of the best 3 goalies in NHL history). Tim Thomas is a great goalie, but the Bruins coaching/system/personnel has a big contribution to that... Did you forget how dominant Rask was in 09-10? He put up stats just as good as Thomas in his best season.
As usual, your arguments are moving targets. You're now arguing that Miller isn't Hasek or Brodeur? How'd we get from you suggesting that they need to start moving on from Miller, us showing you that goaltenders at, around, or older than Miller's age can compete for Cups, to you now arguing this?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Layne Staley View Post
So yes, it's a big misconception that the top goalies each year are old, just simply not true. Hasek and Brodeur Are the two goalies that people point to who believe in that false belief. Most of the top goalies in the NHL are at their best from their mid 20s to early 30s. Miller is 32. He is coming off two declining seasons after winning the Vezina at age 29. No promises that he will ever return to Vezina form. I still don't understand why people get defensive when anyone brings up the possibility that Miller may be in a perpetual decline.
And you've now moved to arguing regular season goaltender statistics. More moving targets. I fully expect your next argument to be that the Kings beat the Devils by the sole virtue of Quick being younger than Brodeur.

We've shown you goaltenders at Miller's age, and older, can compete for Cups. Fact, not opinion.

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08-20-2012, 09:28 PM
  #41
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I agree with Zip - Miller's age shouldn't be a reason Buffalo moves away from him. If I were Regier, I'd be awful leary of trading Miller, or somehow moving him along, without a good goaltender ready to step in. Chicago was very lucky that Philadelphia's goaltending situation was worse than theirs a few years ago. Buffalo doesn't want to be in the position either of those clubs were in, with a team ready to compete for the Cup but without a goaltender able to live up to his end of the bargain.

Chicago was lucky that Niemi was just better than Leighton. With Buffalo's luck, they'd get to the finals with the Dream 16 team winning the President's Trophy despite average goaltending, and get beat by a decent team playing good defense in front of a stellar goalie.

Keep Miller.

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