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Keeper quandry

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Old
08-13-2012, 12:17 PM
  #1
sveiglar
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Keeper quandry

My keepers are due Wednesday and I can't quite settle this myself so I'll throw my internal debate out here for comments.

The league format is QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/WR/TE/K/DEF/BN/BN/BN/BN/BN with default Y! scoring. We keep three guys each year with no restrictions on position (ie can keep to RB, etc). Ray Rice is an automatic; no question there. So the three contenders for the other two spots are as follows.

Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN
Pros: Elite history of performance, strong one-RB situation.
Cons: ACL recovery. Saying he's on track for week 1, but is burst still there and does Gerhart take more carries than normal?

Julio Jones, WR, ATL
Pros: Strong rookie year, trending up, many are projecting him as a top-10 WR.
Cons: How much room for improvement on his numbers with Roddy White still there?

Mike Vick, QB, PHI
Pros: With DJax and Maclin happy and healthy, could be a big bounce-back year.
Cons: Injury concerns, will he miss games, etc.

I'll be picking fifth after all the keepers are entered so there's still a chance that my odd-man out will be there for me as my first draft pick, but I want to make the right choice up front on the guys I keep. All the incoming rookies will be available for drafting in our first round of picks after the keepers. So how would you play it?

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08-13-2012, 03:13 PM
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AmericanDream
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nice team you assembled with those 4... how the hell did you get Ray Rice and AP last year??? thats insane!

I have been playing fantasy football for a lot of years now and I am sure I have stated this elsewhere, but I never draft QB's until round 7...possibly round 6 if one of my guys is in danger of going off the board...

I wouldnt touch Michael Vick with a 10 foot poll over those other two guys as quarterbacks can be had all over the board that will likely be just as good if not better then Vick. I think Vick has a solid year this year, but a few things scare me.

Vick gets injured an awful lot. He isnt getting younger and the style he plays gets him hurt. If he stays in the pocket more does it hurt his overall effectiveness as he is a scrambler that makes things happen on the fly??

I would much rather target guys like Matt Ryan, both Eli and Peyton Manning, Romo, or even Phillip Rivers as all can be had in rounds 6-8 depending on how many teams you have... I personally think Vicks superhero games are in the past, but if you draft him in rounds 6-9 you wont be dissapointed...any sooner and you may regret it..

AP is a must keep. I understand all this noise about his surgery and how hard it is for players to come back as effective as they were prior..but this is AP that we are talking about here, and seeing the dude run full sprints over a month ago akes me 100% sure to get him in the top 2 rounds as he will be a guy that people shy away from, but will regret.

Julio Jones is a no brainer as well, a must keep. I have been drafting Roddy White in a few other leagues but I dont think either guy is going to be a letdown as Matt Ryan is poised for a monster year and those two guys are the prime benafactors for it..

long story short, I would keep Rice, AP, and Jones.... if you are worried about AP, then draft another RB in round one...likely many of the top dogs will be kept, but you can snag up a solid RB that will make your top 3 daunting to play against when AP comes back...which really could be week 1... thats my opinion.

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08-13-2012, 03:20 PM
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AmericanDream
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I also thought the main point of a keeper league is that whatever player(s) you keep, you will lose that round you picked him(them) in for next years draft...is that not the case with you??

so if I picked Julio Jones in round 7 in 2011, and I want to keep him, I lose my round 7 pick in 2012....if thats not the case then your decision is much easier then you think..

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08-13-2012, 04:33 PM
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mouser
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Vick definitely looks like the odd guy out. Part of his big fantasy bonus was the rushing stats. Those took a noticeable drop last season and there's reason to believe they could decline again this year as Vick seemed to be trying to become more of a pocket passer. A full season of a healthy Vick probably looks like ~24PTD and ~3RTD. Factor in that it's unlikely he will start all 16 games and he projects to be an average starting QB that you should be able to replace with someone comparable in the draft. Comparable players to your RB's and WR probably won't be available in the draft.

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Old
08-14-2012, 08:07 AM
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sveiglar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AmericanDream View Post
nice team you assembled with those 4... how the hell did you get Ray Rice and AP last year??? thats insane!
I got drafted both Peterson and Rice as incoming rookies and have kept both ever since. They've definitely served me well!

Quote:
Originally Posted by AmericanDream View Post
I also thought the main point of a keeper league is that whatever player(s) you keep, you will lose that round you picked him(them) in for next years draft...is that not the case with you??

so if I picked Julio Jones in round 7 in 2011, and I want to keep him, I lose my round 7 pick in 2012....if thats not the case then your decision is much easier then you think..
We simply choose the three players we want to keep and they become our de-facto first, second and third round picks; it doesn't matter where they were picked the year before (and many of them wouldn't even have a draft slot as they would have been kept from the year previous). So essentially you subtract the 36 kept players from the pool and then start drafting your remaining 11 roster spots from there. So yeah, you can accumulate multiple first-round talents and keep them all without affecting draft position. Entering season 11 and still going strong.

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08-17-2012, 06:59 PM
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I think it's Peterson and Julio for sure, but even if you're not sure you should have a look at the QB situation of the 4 teams drafting ahead of you. If a couple guys already have QB's as keepers you probably will have no problem getting Vick back.

I am in virtually the same situation in my league actually with the same league format, only difference is I have MJD instead of Rice. Will be keeping Peterson, MJD, and Julio and hoping Vick drops to my draft pick.

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Old
08-18-2012, 11:05 PM
  #7
Layne Staley
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Keep AP and Vick.

AP and Ray Rice are 2 studs you will have for 5 more years.Vick will get 4500 total yards and 30+ total tds.

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Old
08-19-2012, 02:20 AM
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i would drop vick, jones is a must keeper

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