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[EDM] Taylor Hall signs seven year extension, $6m per

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Old
08-21-2012, 06:17 PM
  #126
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If $6m and change is a 'bridge' contract I hate to imagine what the Oilers are going to be paying for a few more-or-less point a game players a few years down the line.

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08-21-2012, 06:18 PM
  #127
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Stephen View Post
The fact that Tavares was healthy and actually maintained those PPG numbers and turned Matt Moulson and PA Parenteau into productive NHLers means a hell of a lot more than a guy who plays a game that leaves him hurt 20 odd games a year so far and also plays second fiddle to Eberle.
You must not be talking about Hall. The godly Eberle couldnt even gain the zone when Hall was injured. Him and RNH became half as effective.

People who dont watch the oilers (you obviously) dont understand how much Hall brings to the team besides his offence

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08-21-2012, 06:23 PM
  #128
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I initially read "Oilers close to executing Hall" and I got freaked out

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08-21-2012, 06:26 PM
  #129
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Everyone is too pissy about this. A key cog in building an annual contender and people are worrying about maybe a MIL too high?

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08-21-2012, 06:29 PM
  #130
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I'm sorry, but this whole nonsense about ELC's and gotta win before they're up is redundant. That might have been the case back when the salary cap was around $45M but it has almost doubled since then making this theory outdated and completely irrelevant in today's NHL.

Chicago had problems with their cap because they had some really stupid contracts on the books. None of this applies to the Oilers and their forwards.

Back when most of those top 4 players of each team signed it would have constituted a much higher % of cap at that time then it does now. All we're seeing here with the Oilers is a brand new up and coming core hoping to be signed at a very competitive and reasonable $6M/year in 2012 and beyond.

The Pens signed Malkin and Crosby to $8.7M/yr (total $17.4) contracts in 2008 when the cap was $56M/yr. That equals 31% of the cap, or ~15% each, dedicated to 2 players. They haven't had much of a problem. The Oilers are hoping to sign 4 players @ $6M each. That's 24M for 4 potential stars and that's around 34% of the cap, or 8.5% each.

Doesn't seem impossible to me.

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08-21-2012, 06:29 PM
  #131
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Originally Posted by The Last Dynasty View Post
wishful thinking

if the NYR can lock up 4 premier players (Richards, Gaborik, Nash, Lundqvist) at 6.6M+ and still be a great team, no reason why the Oilers can't do the same thing
I wasn't saying the Oilers can't be a great team, I'm saying they're going to miss the window to be as stacked as Chicago was when they won the cup. Chicago has remained a great team once all the big contracts to Toews, Kane, Keith, and Seabrook hit the books, but they're no longer scary the way they were when these guys were on cheap 1st and 2nd contracts.

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08-21-2012, 06:32 PM
  #132
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haven't read the whole thread so not sure if this has been mentioned already.

i don't get people saying that oilers can't afford the big 4, halls cap hit right now is 3.75mil, so is RNH's and so is Yakupov's. by signing all three of them to say 6 mill a year contract extensions, the oilers are only adding 6.75mil a year in cap hit.

the only one due for a large raise is eberle, his cap hit is around 1mil right now. so signing all four players to roughly 6mil a year deals, would add around 11mil in total to the oilers cap, which they can easily afford.

people forget that they arn't starting with a salary of zero and getting 6mil a year each.

i think it's just haters hoping the oilers can't afford them and have to dump some of them off. not happening though.

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08-21-2012, 06:32 PM
  #133
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RandV View Post
I wasn't saying the Oilers can't be a great team, I'm saying they're going to miss the window to be as stacked as Chicago was when they won the cup. Chicago has remained a great team once all the big contracts to Toews, Kane, Keith, and Seabrook hit the books, but they're no longer scary the way they were when these guys were on cheap 1st and 2nd contracts.
So why can't Edmonton be good before Yakupov's ELC runs out? Or Hopkins is in his last year?

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08-21-2012, 06:33 PM
  #134
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I'm hoping for a 6 year deal for both Eberle and Hall, under 6m per.

If they would take 5.5 cap hits I would be ecstatic. I strongly believe they'll get twin contracts.

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08-21-2012, 06:35 PM
  #135
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Originally Posted by eyeball11 View Post
My question exactly.
You meen Leaf fans questioning ? Get use to it ,T.S. is a very good player one of the BEST young players in the NHL so Leaf fans stop downplaying him.

He is as good if not better than the players in the thread so yes he will be paid very well for his services.

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08-21-2012, 06:35 PM
  #136
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RandV View Post
I wasn't saying the Oilers can't be a great team, I'm saying they're going to miss the window to be as stacked as Chicago was when they won the cup. Chicago has remained a great team once all the big contracts to Toews, Kane, Keith, and Seabrook hit the books, but they're no longer scary the way they were when these guys were on cheap 1st and 2nd contracts.
They couldn't retain some of their players because they had some bad contracts on the books. Does not apply to the Oilers.

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08-21-2012, 06:39 PM
  #137
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5.5 million wasn't a discount. It just speaks volumes to how ridiculous the recent signings have been.
I think it was a discount. You also need to take into account the cap has gone up quite a bit since JT signed that deal (around 15m higher).

Quote:
Originally Posted by FLAMES666 View Post
Notice how none of these examples are all forwards, signing isn't the problem, its putting so much cash into your forwards.

Look at Chicago... Kane Toews Sharp Hossa and still room to sign two great defenseman.

Look at Pittsburgh Malkin and Crosby make 18m combined and they still have room to give Neal 5+m and offered Staal a 60m 10 year deal. Not to mention their goalie makes close to 7m dollars.

Look at Minny, Parise and Heatly make over 7.5 each! Koivu pulls in 6.75. Suter and 7.5 and their goalie makes 6m.

Don't worry guys, the Oilers will be fine. Even paying those 4 forwards 6m each thats only 24m out of 70m... They'll be fine, there's examples everywhere.

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08-21-2012, 06:39 PM
  #138
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Originally Posted by zaray_656 View Post
So why can't Edmonton be good before Yakupov's ELC runs out? Or Hopkins is in his last year?
In my first post I said they could be good for Hopkins last year but it's really gotta all come together quickly, like the Oilers needing to be in the playoffs this season. After that you need a combination of these cheap guys to work, Yakupov alone probably isn't going to make a big enough impact.

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08-21-2012, 06:41 PM
  #139
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Originally Posted by FLAMES666 View Post
Notice how none of these examples are all forwards, signing isn't the problem, its putting so much cash into your forwards.
Sorry. With that in mind I'd much rather have Iginla, Cammaleri, JBo and Wideman for a combined 24.9 million

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08-21-2012, 06:44 PM
  #140
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Originally Posted by RandV View Post
I wasn't saying the Oilers can't be a great team, I'm saying they're going to miss the window to be as stacked as Chicago was when they won the cup. Chicago has remained a great team once all the big contracts to Toews, Kane, Keith, and Seabrook hit the books, but they're no longer scary the way they were when these guys were on cheap 1st and 2nd contracts.
You don't think that had anything to do with some very large contracts and a screw up faxing paperwork?

Did that stuff just not happen? Did we delete it from our memory?

The cap is also much higher now. It's like people just like to just throw Chicago out without any sort of analysis as to why they got a little messed up with the cap.

The Oilers right now are running their cap perfectly for the future.

This needs to keep being pasted from the Oilers board:

It's natural for the fans of other teams to have a bit of a grudge against the Oilers given their recent luck/ineptitude netting three straight first overall draft picks. As a product of this grudge, the latest argument we have all been hearing is:

Quote:
"Ooo, those four forwards look pretty now but you'll never be able to afford them when they're due for extensions. You'll have to get rid of one of Yakupov, Nugent-Hopkins, Hall, or Eberle because they'll be too expensive! LoLz Edmonton fail!"
This line of reasoning has been thrown around a ton. In fact, even Pierre McGuire and some other commentators have been speaking this rhetoric. Is it true? Can the Oilers afford to keep the Big Four or are we automatically doomed to lose one of them?

I think this question can be broken down into two sections:

1. Can the Edmonton Oilers afford to keep the Big Four with the current cap structure.

2. Should the Edmonton Oilers keep the Big Four given the huge price tags they'll each require.

I'll try to look at both questions:

Can the Oilers Afford to Keep the Big Four?
First off, I really find this question a little silly. Isn't it a ***GOOD*** thing if all four of our young superstars are making $6M+? If they end up making that kind of coin, it means we're talking about four players who are point/game guys (or at least really close to that mark). If that happens, we're talking about four players who are each considered top 5 players at their position in the NHL and we're absolutely loaded with offensive talent.

However, let's use the $6M as a benchmark as that is slightly more than what Skinner recently got on a long-term contract. If each player gets that contract, what happens? I'll make the argument that Tambellini has really spaced out the contracts within this organization well so that the Oilers have a ton of freedom to be creative and keep who they want.

Jordan Eberle and Taylor Hall - RFAs in 2013-14
Next off-season is the first big test for Tambellini as two of our young guns hit the restricted free agency market. I have a sneaking suspicion they will both be locked up long before then but using the benchmark from above, the Oilers are looking at giving the two a total chunk of $12M out of our cap.

What first needs to be recognized is that the increase isn't as huge as some other fans are arguing. Hall's cap hit is already $3.75M given the bonus structure of his contract and Eberle makes $1.158M. Add the two together and we're looking at adding an additional $7.1M. That is certainly a decent chunk of change but a few things need to be remembered:

1. We're not a cap team right now so we still have almost $7M in cap space right now.
2. Souray's $1.5M comes off the books in 2013-14
3. Khabibulin's $3.75M comes off the books in 2013-14
4. Whitney's $4.0M comes off the books in 2013-14

That's a total of $9.25M in extra cap space available to extend Hall and Eberle. Added together with the almost $7M we have now and we're looking at $16.25M or so in cap space. Obviously some of that money will need to go to potentially keeping Whitney, Gagner (who is already making $3.2M - I didn't include him as his raise likely won't be a huge back-breaker), Smid and others but there is still more than enough money around to comfortably hold on to Eberle and Hall.

Long story short - Eberle and Hall are going nowhere soon unless they get poached as RFAs with HUGE offers we deem unreasonable or we choose to move them.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - RFA in 2014-15
When we get to the next off-season, RNH is up for his big pay-day. Assuming he's had a point/game season by this point, we're now looking at another $6M contract. Is this going to be a problem?

I would argue "no" again. For one, we should still have space available from the previous off-season unless Tambellini goes totally crazy and uses up all $16.25M. RNH is also on a bonus contract so we only need to increase his cap hit by $2.225M. Again though, Tambellini has structured the contracts really well. In 2014-15 (RNH d-day), we lose the following contracts to unrestricted free agency:

1. Smyth - $2.25M
2. Hemsky - $5.00M
3. Belanger - $1.75M

That's a total of $9M to play with and we only need to devote $2.225M to RNH. Dubnyk is also due for an extension at this point but he likely won't be getting a ton more on his $3.5M contract. We will obviously have to pay for replacement players for guys like Hemsky, Belanger, and Smyth (or pay to keep them around) but if we have three young guns firing at point/game paces by this time, we don't necessarily need a $5M winger like Hemsky and we can afford to use younger players or cheaper veterans to fill in the gaps.

Conclusion: Keeping RNH will not be difficult in the slightest under the current cap.

Nail Yakupov - RFA in 2015-16
The final and least proven of our Big Four becomes a restricted free agent in 2015-16. It is the addition of Yakupov that has really fired up rival fans and he seems to be the Jenga block that many are arguing will topple our tower. Can we truly afford to hold on to Yakupov if we're doling out $18M to RNH, Hall and Eberle?

Well, for the third time, Tambellini's salaries have been structured really well. 2015-16 is a long way away so a lot of players will have totally different contracts at that point but we do know we are losing one contract for sure at that point:

1. Horcoff - $5.50M

Yakupov is the third of our kids on a big bonus-laden contract so again, we only need to up his cap hit by $2.225M. Interestingly enough, that's the year Schultz would be due for a raise. However, things aren't so grim with him as he is yet another Oiler on a rookie bonus cap hit at $3.75M so the raise wouldn't likely be huge. Given the amount of space we'll have with Horcoff's contract coming off the books, I don't think it's unreasonable to conclude that again, we're fine financially.
__________________________________________________ ______

There are obviously other factors that could play into this equation. For example, what if Justin Schultz breaks out big time and becomes another $6M player (oh us poor Oilers!!! )? What if Petry emerges as a $4M+ defenceman? What if Dubnyk takes a huge step forward and earns a $6M contract?

Regardless of all that, I think I've demonstrated that cap-wise, the Oilers are fine. In fact, there is even some room to play with in any given year so if some of the above comes true, we should have the wiggle room to keep those players around. We might end up following the Chicago model and have to lose some of our expensive depth players (guys like Smyth and even Horcoff in later years) but we should be financially able to keep the Big Four in Edmonton for a decent while.

Should the Oilers Keep the Big Four?
The second question (which always seems to get mixed in with the first) is the above one. We know we can financially afford to keep our Big Four together for long-term contract extensions but is it a good idea to tie up $24M in our top 4 forwards? This is a very reasonable question and one I wish fans of other teams would pose rather than the obvious first question.

First off, let's look at the cap structure of some top teams to get a sense for if paying that much for top forwards has led to success. I will list the top 4 forwards for the team in terms of cap hit and how much it adds up to:

1. Boston Bruins: Krejci, Lucic, Bergeron, Horton: $18.33M
The Bruins come in about $5.5M below the Oilers hypothetical Big Four total of $24M.

2. Chicago Blackhawks: Kane, Toews, Sharp, Hossa: $23.73M
The Hawks are right on track with the Oilers. They also shell out almost $11.5M for their top two defencemen. Of the teams I looked at, they seem to be the closest in salary structure to what the Oilers could be.

3. Minnesota Wild: Parise, Heatley, Koivu, Bouchard: $25.9M
The Wild come in almost $2M over the projected salaries of the Oilers.

4. Los Angeles Kings: Kopitar, Richards, Carter, Williams: $21.5M
A little below the Oilers' Big Four but they also pay four more forwards above $3M so it's a little misleading.

5. New York Rangers: Nash, Gaborik, Richards, Callahan: $26.26M
Woh big spenders! The Rangers pay a ton for their top forwards (over $2M more than the Oilers) and they also shell out for Lundqvist. They make it up on their blueline where a bunch of kids are still on cheap rookie deals. Things will be changing there soon!

6. Philadelphia Flyers: Briere, Voracek, Hartnell, Giroux: $18.7M
The Flyers lucked out on Giroux's contract or this one would be closer to the $24M mark.

7. Pittsburgh Penguins: Crosby, Malkin, Neal, Kunitz: $26M
The Penguins just dealt Staal or this number would be a lot higher. They also give Fleury a $5M chunk of their cap - they cheap out on defence a bit which brings them under the cap.

8. San Jose Sharks: Thornton, Marleau, Havlat, Pavelski: $22.9M
Only one million under the Oilers and we could be seeing a huge raise to Couture in a couple years.

9. St. Louis Blues: McDonald, Backes, Oshie, Perron: $17.19M
Our cheapest team so far comes in almost $7M below the Oilers. However, a lot of the Blues forwards are younger players who could be in for bigger raises approaching that $6M mark in the future.

10. Vancouver Canucks: Sedin, Sedin, Kesler, Booth: $21.45M
The Canucks come in about $2.5M below the Oilers. However, the Sedins are obviously on very cap-friendly contracts given their production which skews the numbers a bit.

Looking at those ten teams, three spend more than the $24M (Wild, Rangers, Penguins), two spend within about a million of it (Hawks, Sharks), and five spend below it by more than a million (Canucks, Blues, Flyers, Bruins, Kings).

All things considered, it's actually not that weird to sink $20M+ in your top four forwards as seven of these ten teams do it. The argument has been made that tying up that much cap space into a group of forwards will result in the rest of your roster being garbage and that hasn't necessarily proven true.

The other key point to look at is this: Is it actually worthwhile to move one of our Big Four NOW in order to rearrange our salary structure into a form that will please opposing fans?

I would make the argument that the current value of our Big Four could be massively eclipsed by what they become if they follow a positive trajectory. Take Steven Stamkos as an example - he was drafted #1 overall in a year where he was widely considered the top player by a decent bit. His value now as a two time fifty goal scorer is likely a lot more than it was on draft day as a projectable kid.

We could certainly move a Yakupov or Hall right now to help fix our defence but I'm not sure if that's the best move. If we are confident that these kids are going to develop into the $6M forwards that other fans are telling us we can't afford, might we not be better off to let them develop and then make a trade in a few years if we deem it necessary?

If nothing else, our current salary cap structure has given Tambellini the flexibility and freedom to watch the development of these players and not worry about being able to keep them around.

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08-21-2012, 06:45 PM
  #141
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Sorry. With that in mind I'd much rather have Iginla, Cammaleri, JBo and Wideman for a combined 24.9 million

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08-21-2012, 06:46 PM
  #142
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In my first post I said they could be good for Hopkins last year but it's really gotta all come together quickly, like the Oilers needing to be in the playoffs this season. After that you need a combination of these cheap guys to work, Yakupov alone probably isn't going to make a big enough impact.
Yeah that's true but usually teams that have rebuilt like this get very good very quickly. Chicago went from 1st overall to barely missing the playoffs, to making it to the conference finals and then winning it all. Pittsburgh went from 2nd overall to 1st round exit, to losing in the SCF and then winning it all. It's not inconceivable that the Oilers can turn it around quickly. Like you said though that starts with making the playoffs or barely missing this year. It's a MASSIVE year for this club which IMO will determine whether the past few seasons of garbage has been worth it.

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08-21-2012, 06:50 PM
  #143
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Out of all my posts in this thread, you single out that one point to focus on? I came in here to discuss the possible details of his 2nd contract and that post was in response to another poster's point comparing Hall to Tavares. Take offense all you want, I'm here to discuss more pertinent matters.

And yes, durability is an issue in Hall's case. While that incident was unfortunate and a complete fluke, Hall has missed almost 40 games the last 2 years while Tavares has missed a grand total of 3 in 3 years. Like it or not, that's a fact.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

To get back on topic, I suspect that when Hall signs his new contract, Eberle will be following suit with something very similar. If Hall and Eberle continue their progression as expected, 6x6 would be excellent moves to set the Oilers up for a little while. I also think it's very likely to see RNH signing something very similar at this time next year. That's a lot of money to tie up into 3 players, but it would not surprise me at all to see all of them exceed their contracts in their play on the ice.

I do have a questions though, is it likely that these contracts be frontloaded or backloaded? I've heard that Katz has deep pockets, but similar to the Isles - they are still working on a new home to play in.
Oilers have never handed out any of those rediculous contracts but if I had to guess backloaded.

When Hemsky signed he earned varying amounts and the last year he made 5 mil even though the cap hit was 4.1 Horc is the opposite and made more up front but he is an old man so not a comparable imo.

Probably something along 5-6 years at 5.5-6 million would be perfect for me

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08-21-2012, 06:54 PM
  #144
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You must not be talking about Hall. The godly Eberle couldnt even gain the zone when Hall was injured. Him and RNH became half as effective.

People who dont watch the oilers (you obviously) dont understand how much Hall brings to the team besides his offence
Don't underrate Eberle just to make a point about Hall. They only played maybe 30 games together last season so I don't know how Eberle was so reliant on Hall....and Eberle scored at a 40 goal pace from the time he scored his first goal of the season until the end of the season. He also scored at a 40+ goal pace in the 20 games RNH was out of the line up. Hall, Eberle and RNH didn't need each other to produce. They just happened to bring the best out in each other.

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08-21-2012, 06:56 PM
  #145
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Sorry. With that in mind I'd much rather have Iginla, Cammaleri, JBo and Wideman for a combined 24.9 million

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08-21-2012, 07:01 PM
  #146
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haven't read the whole thread so not sure if this has been mentioned already.

i don't get people saying that oilers can't afford the big 4, halls cap hit right now is 3.75mil, so is RNH's and so is Yakupov's. by signing all three of them to say 6 mill a year contract extensions, the oilers are only adding 6.75mil a year in cap hit.

the only one due for a large raise is eberle, his cap hit is around 1mil right now. so signing all four players to roughly 6mil a year deals, would add around 11mil in total to the oilers cap, which they can easily afford.

people forget that they arn't starting with a salary of zero and getting 6mil a year each.

i think it's just haters hoping the oilers can't afford them and have to dump some of them off. not happening though.
Like all good posts in a thread about affording the big 4 this will go unnoticed/ignored.

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08-21-2012, 07:14 PM
  #147
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They couldn't retain some of their players because they had some bad contracts on the books. Does not apply to the Oilers.
This was also compounded by the fact that 1) they went $4M over the cap from bonuses and 2) they had their success at a time the cap was flat. This took away a lot of their ability to keep their depth players.

Take away the $4M in bonus cushion overage and add on an additional $3M to the cap as one would expect in most years and they have an additional $7M to spend the year after the cup.

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08-21-2012, 07:21 PM
  #148
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haven't read the whole thread so not sure if this has been mentioned already.

i don't get people saying that oilers can't afford the big 4, halls cap hit right now is 3.75mil, so is RNH's and so is Yakupov's. by signing all three of them to say 6 mill a year contract extensions, the oilers are only adding 6.75mil a year in cap hit.

the only one due for a large raise is eberle, his cap hit is around 1mil right now. so signing all four players to roughly 6mil a year deals, would add around 11mil in total to the oilers cap, which they can easily afford.

people forget that they arn't starting with a salary of zero and getting 6mil a year each.

i think it's just haters hoping the oilers can't afford them and have to dump some of them off. not happening though.
Agreed, I am not getting all of this talk that the Oilers won't be able to re-sign everyone. Come on folks.

While the Oilers have an enviable amount of talent, that is no guarantee for success. That's why they play the games.

Besides, my boy Johnny will lead the Isles back to prominence anyway so all of this is moot.

Sorry, couldn't resist.

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08-21-2012, 07:34 PM
  #149
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jamin View Post
Oilers have never handed out any of those rediculous contracts but if I had to guess backloaded.

When Hemsky signed he earned varying amounts and the last year he made 5 mil even though the cap hit was 4.1 Horc is the opposite and made more up front but he is an old man so not a comparable imo.

Probably something along 5-6 years at 5.5-6 million would be perfect for me
Sorry, I was a tad annoyed during my initial post. What I meant by frontloaded or backloaded was if the upcoming contracts would be tailored so that more money is either paid up front or at the back end of the deal similar to Tavares' deal. While his AAV is $5.5M, he is slated to earn $4M next season while his last year is worth $6M or so. I wasn't talking about those ridiculous contracts such as the ones given to Parise, Suter, Weber etc.

It would make sense for the Oilers to do that as well. Backload the contracts a reasonable amount so the big money is spent when all of the youngsters are well into their careers. They would also coincide in their new home as well.

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08-21-2012, 07:35 PM
  #150
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Hope it's nothing obnoxious, it would help with Seguin's.

Skinner range would be awesome.

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