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Shane Doan thread (Buccigross - The ridiculous offer is Buffalo's)

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Old
08-24-2012, 11:32 AM
  #951
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
For Buffalo to take proper advantage of their new found luxury of money, they need to be viewed as a contender.

the 7.5 Doan eats up for 4 years... Buffalo is going to have a hard time putting it to better use in free agency (unless you are a fan of overpaying 2nd/3rd tier UFAs like Leino)

The Doan contract would be a massive overpayment... but they are also trying to buy culture change... that's a cost worth investing in IMO.

if you look at it as 4.5 million per for Doan over 4 years... and 3 million per invested in culture change that would have an impact down the road... it's all good.

The contract would be horrid for what you get out of the individual on the ice.

But if it's balanced by what you get in the lockerroom, the impact it has on the youth coming up, and the way it hopefully begins to change the perception of Buffalo... then it could be worth it
Hate to say it, but Jame pretty much sums up what I think. It's a moot point though, as I doubt he is coming this way.

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08-24-2012, 11:32 AM
  #952
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
For Buffalo to take proper advantage of their new found luxury of money, they need to be viewed as a contender.

the 7.5 Doan eats up for 4 years... Buffalo is going to have a hard time putting it to better use in free agency (unless you are a fan of overpaying 2nd/3rd tier UFAs like Leino)

The Doan contract would be a massive overpayment... but they are also trying to buy culture change... that's a cost worth investing in IMO.

if you look at it as 4.5 million per for Doan over 4 years... and 3 million per invested in culture change that would have an impact down the road... it's all good.

The contract would be horrid for what you get out of the individual on the ice.

But if it's balanced by what you get in the lockerroom, the impact it has on the youth coming up, and the way it hopefully begins to change the perception of Buffalo... then it could be worth it
But obviously you understand why I'd say that I don't think that acquiring Doan necessarily leads to culture change, especially in a locker room that had issues with bringing in higher-paid UFAs. That was probably Roy, who's gone, but that in itself is probably a nice cultural change as is.

I get where you're coming from - I just don't accept the opportunity risks.

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08-24-2012, 11:39 AM
  #953
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
the 7.5 Doan eats up for 4 years... Buffalo is going to have a hard time putting it to better use in free agency (unless you are a fan of overpaying 2nd/3rd tier UFAs like Leino)
I hadn't really thought of this, and it's a valid point (if the past two off-seasons have taught us anything, it's that Getzlaf, Perry etc aren't going to sign here just like Richards and Parise didn't).

Giving Doan this contract won't hinder Buffalo from signing Getzlaf/Perry because it's unrealistic to think that they'd be here anyways.

It could, however, prove to be a hindrance when it comes time to re-up some of the younger players on the team.

Quote:
But if it's balanced by what you get in the lockerroom, the impact it has on the youth coming up, and the way it hopefully begins to change the perception of Buffalo... then it could be worth it
This is a good point as well. You aren't just paying for the individual in signing Doan. You're paying for the domino effect that it could have in turning Buffalo into a winner. And when you're a winner, Getzlaf/Perry etc look your way to sign.


It's just a matter of whether or not you take the risk. If Doan is signed, I'd imagine Vanek would be moved.

Foligno-Ennis-Stafford
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Looks like a tough team to play against - even after losing Vanek's scoring.


After considering the pluses, I probably still wouldn't want to sign him at 7.5...but I don't think it should be as "NO WAY" as most seem to be making it. Just my opinion.

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08-24-2012, 11:46 AM
  #954
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Originally Posted by Beechsack View Post
Sigh. How many times do people have to say 'I want Doan, just not at this price' for you guys to get it?

Doan, the player = good.

Doan, the player, at $7.5M a year = bad.
The money isnt a problem. Lets say Doan is worth $5 million on the market, you dont think the Sabres can find $2.5 million in space?

IMO it is pretty simple. Instead of re-signing Leopold you have to go young in his spot.

There are ways to make up that $2.5 million we are losing by overpaying Doan.

It wont hurt the Sabres to replace Leopold or Regher with a young player for a couple years.

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08-24-2012, 12:02 PM
  #955
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Originally Posted by Loods View Post
It's just a matter of whether or not you take the risk. If Doan is signed, I'd imagine Vanek would be moved.

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I know the thinking is that, to absorb the salary/cap hit of the Doan deal, Vanek is the guy to go - but my bet is that acquiring Doan makes Stafford the one to get dealt for several reasons:

1) Between Vanek and Stafford, Vanek is the more likely candidate to be a 30-goal scorer each season.

2) Doan and Stafford are each RWs.

3) Doan's projected offensive contributions (20 Goals +/-) will more likely offset those delivered by Stafford than they will those by Vanek.

4) Sliding Doan into Stafford's spot alongside two young players like Ennis and Foligno would be a logical step in putting a veteran mentor with them.

5) Stafford's age and cap hit would seem to be more attractive in trade packages - especially if the new CBA lowers the cap - than Vanek's age and cap hit. Plus, Stafford has an extra year on his current deal over Vanek.

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08-24-2012, 12:07 PM
  #956
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i officially hate shane doan. i don't want to hear his name ever again unless he signs here. seriously, be a professional and make a decision. he shouldn't be allowed to sit in limbo this long.

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08-24-2012, 12:08 PM
  #957
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
For Buffalo to take proper advantage of their new found luxury of money, they need to be viewed as a contender.

the 7.5 Doan eats up for 4 years... Buffalo is going to have a hard time putting it to better use in free agency (unless you are a fan of overpaying 2nd/3rd tier UFAs like Leino)

The Doan contract would be a massive overpayment... but they are also trying to buy culture change... that's a cost worth investing in IMO.

if you look at it as 4.5 million per for Doan over 4 years... and 3 million per invested in culture change that would have an impact down the road... it's all good.

The contract would be horrid for what you get out of the individual on the ice.

But if it's balanced by what you get in the lockerroom, the impact it has on the youth coming up, and the way it hopefully begins to change the perception of Buffalo... then it could be worth it
I don't believe that the intangibles/culture change that Doan would bring would be worth the gap between what his on-ice production should be worth and what the Sabres would be paying him with the 4yr/$30M deal.

The culture the Sabres would be getting is similar to what they got with Leino. It's like a really uncool smart guy that thinks that he can be cool because he can afford a cool car and some cool clothes, but everyone sees right through it.

While the Sabres hope that players would view signing Doan as evidence that they are serious about winning. I feel like players will view the Sabres as a team that is so desperate that they are vastly overpay for players and that they'll never really win because they aren't spending wisely.

With the uncertainty of the CBA, I'd rather keep the money in their pocket and see what the next CBA brings.

Plus, I'd much rather see the Sabres go harder down the trade route after the CBA is settled and the trade market heats up.

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08-24-2012, 12:08 PM
  #958
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Let us take a look at the next 4 years cap wise.

This year we should be fine, re-signing Ennis and Doan...depending on what the cap looks like under the new CBA. Assuming that any reduction in the cap is offset either by a salary rollback, amnesty buyout, or other trade.

2013 summer (numbers are current figures):

Off the books: Pardy (2M), Leopold (3M)
Potential re-sign: Regehr (4M), Sulzer (725K)
RFAs: Hodgson (1.7M, due a decent raise), Weber (950K), Brennan (550K), Enroth (675K), Adam (875K), Tropp (575K)

The only FA to truly worry about in terms of paying up is Hodgson, and even then a shorter term deal (~3 years) can keep his number down barring a ridiculous break out season. Regehr can be re-signed--likely for less, if desired.

2014 summer:

This is where things really get interesting.

Top $$ guys: Vanek (7.1M), Pominville (5.3M), Miller (6.25M)
UFAs: Ott (2.95M), McCormick (1.2M), Porter (530K)
RFAs: McNabb (900K), Foligno (900K)

Those two RFAs will be looking at raises, but we're not talking top $$ raises. McCormick/Porter are likely gone, and by this season Leino's contract becomes more tradeable with more of the frontloaded deal paid up. Ott likely stays around the same one would figure. Vanek might be re-signed for less, and the other two guys might be similar contracts if decided to re-sign. However, any cap hell can be alleviated by simply letting Vanek or Miller go--which may be possible if Armia/Enroth show they can step in. I advocate keeping Pommer though, and his deal should be fairly reasonable.

2015 summer:
UFA: Stafford (4M), Kaleta (1.25M), Sekera (2.75M)
RFA: Pysyk (870K), JGL (870K)
Potentially: Grigorenko (1.775M), Girgensons (1.625M) -- depending if they play in the NHL this season, otherwise contracts slide and they aren't up until 2016.
It's way too far out to make judgments, but one has to think Stafford could be let go at that point if needed. Hell, Sekera could too depending on how the D-prospects pan out...though Sekera likely gets a raise. IF neither G-men play on the Sabres this year and their contracts slide...then all of a sudden there's a lot of space to go for the big splash during Doan's final year. 2015-16 would then look very, very interesting.

There is the possibility that Ennis/Hodgson might be back up during this summer, depending on what their contracts look like.

2016 summer:
Doan's contract is off the books.

Basically, Doan's contract should NOT hurt the Sabres chances of keeping our own young guys when they come up for the raise. It could affect signing other free agents though.

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08-24-2012, 12:09 PM
  #959
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jame View Post
For Buffalo to take proper advantage of their new found luxury of money, they need to be viewed as a contender.

the 7.5 Doan eats up for 4 years... Buffalo is going to have a hard time putting it to better use in free agency (unless you are a fan of overpaying 2nd/3rd tier UFAs like Leino)

The Doan contract would be a massive overpayment... but they are also trying to buy culture change... that's a cost worth investing in IMO.

if you look at it as 4.5 million per for Doan over 4 years... and 3 million per invested in culture change that would have an impact down the road... it's all good.

The contract would be horrid for what you get out of the individual on the ice.

But if it's balanced by what you get in the lockerroom, the impact it has on the youth coming up, and the way it hopefully begins to change the perception of Buffalo... then it could be worth it
Excellent and very valid point - and I suspect that this is exactly the reason why the Sabres regime is even interested in a 35-year old Doan. They have an influx of current and upcoming young talent that needs some tutelage and direction in shaping what kind of NHLers they'll be - and have a feeling that the same philosophy that Regier and Black spoke of being in place in Rochester ("Sabres University"), where the young prospects are taught not only skill development but also commitments and requirements for life as a professional athletes, is driving the Doan chase. A respected veteran, captain / leader with unquestioned compete level and work ethic who's shown loyalty to his teammates and organization seems exactly what Regier and Black want in place to teach their new "core". Finding talent is sometimes easier than finding character - and if it only costs cash to acquire it, I can see why they'd be willing to pay beyond what conventional logic says they should.

I also think that the Briere/Drury situation still lingers in the backs of Regier's and Ruff's minds - they have to realize that they have yet to get to the level of the teams led by those two and much of it has more to do with the general attitude / confidence / persistence that those two players instilled in the lockerroom than either player's statistical contributions.

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08-24-2012, 12:17 PM
  #960
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The money isnt a problem. Lets say Doan is worth $5 million on the market, you dont think the Sabres can find $2.5 million in space?

IMO it is pretty simple. Instead of re-signing Leopold you have to go young in his spot.

There are ways to make up that $2.5 million we are losing by overpaying Doan.

It wont hurt the Sabres to replace Leopold or Regher with a young player for a couple years.
What if signing Doan means that they can't take a run at Getzlaf in a year?

What if Doan is a disaster on a Leino-ish level and players are afraid of coming here because they have two high priced busts on the roster?

How many players want to come play with vastly overpaid and underachieving players?

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08-24-2012, 12:21 PM
  #961
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Originally Posted by Jim Bob View Post
What if signing Doan means that they can't take a run at Getzlaf in a year?

What if Doan is a disaster on a Leino-ish level and players are afraid of coming here because they have two high priced busts on the roster?

How many players want to come play with vastly overpaid and underachieving players?
That is a completely different question than the cap question.

The hockey question of how Doan will perform. The cap is workable--although let's also remember bird in hand, we shouldn't be counting on a Getzlaf to sign here.

If you believe Doan can play at a high enough level over the next 4 years, you sign him.

If you do not believe that, you don't.

I think it's really that simple.

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08-24-2012, 12:22 PM
  #962
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Originally Posted by Loods View Post


It's just a matter of whether or not you take the risk. If Doan is signed, I'd imagine Vanek would be moved.

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Gerbe-McCormick-Kaleta
xScott

Looks like a tough team to play against - even after losing Vanek's scoring.


After considering the pluses, I probably still wouldn't want to sign him at 7.5...but I don't think it should be as "NO WAY" as most seem to be making it. Just my opinion.
Trading Vanek would be a huge mistake period. Did you even look at the proposed lineup you did after trading Vanek?

Foligno, Tropp, Ott, Gerbe as your 4 LWs... That's just putrid. Tropp as a second line LW playing with the 2nd best center and best right winger? ( don't bother saying Ruff doesn't roll a traditional 1st or 2nd line , because if he is playing with our 2nd best C and best all around forward, then our team is in a lottttt of trouble. I have doubts on Tropps long term viability here.)

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08-24-2012, 12:32 PM
  #963
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That is a completely different question than the cap question.

The hockey question of how Doan will perform. The cap is workable--although let's also remember bird in hand, we shouldn't be counting on a Getzlaf to sign here.

If you believe Doan can play at a high enough level over the next 4 years, you sign him.

If you do not believe that, you don't.

I think it's really that simple.
I think Doan will get you 20g/45 pts and I don't think that is worth the contract even with the intangibles figured in.

And the opportunity cost could be a lot worse under the next CBA. That is the other piece that makes me want the Sabres to wait on Doan.

Nobody knows what the next CBA will bring and what effect it will have on Pegula Bucks. And I don't think Doan is a Brad Richards level "gotta have" type player at this stage of his career.

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08-24-2012, 12:32 PM
  #964
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i officially hate shane doan. i don't want to hear his name ever again unless he signs here. seriously, be a professional and make a decision. he shouldn't be allowed to sit in limbo this long.
After reading this I thought of this ...


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08-24-2012, 12:38 PM
  #965
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I can't seem to find a super current list of free agent goalies, but as of the end of July this was the list:

Dan Ellis (started just 16 games in the past two years)
Brent Johnson (0.883 SV, yikes)
Ty Conklin (age 36, no dice)
Dwayne Roloson (too old)
Cristobal Huet (36 years old)
Ben Scrivens (I think he got signed by Toronto, RFA)
Marty Turco (Ooooold)
Antero Niittymaki (Signed in Europe I think?, age 32)


So where is there a young free agent goalie who can play 20 games a season for the next 2-3 years and 40+ in 2015-2018 for cup runs? Most available goalies are older than Miller.
It doesn't need to be restricted to current free agents. Trades, future free agents...

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08-24-2012, 12:41 PM
  #966
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All this "culture change" BS is ridiculously overhyped. Derek Roy learned at the feet of Chris Drury and Mike Grier. Players mostly are who they are. You want to turn your idiot players into professionals? Trade them for professionals.

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08-24-2012, 12:44 PM
  #967
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Originally Posted by Jame View Post
For Buffalo to take proper advantage of their new found luxury of money, they need to be viewed as a contender.

the 7.5 Doan eats up for 4 years... Buffalo is going to have a hard time putting it to better use in free agency (unless you are a fan of overpaying 2nd/3rd tier UFAs like Leino)

The Doan contract would be a massive overpayment... but they are also trying to buy culture change... that's a cost worth investing in IMO.

if you look at it as 4.5 million per for Doan over 4 years... and 3 million per invested in culture change that would have an impact down the road... it's all good.

The contract would be horrid for what you get out of the individual on the ice.

But if it's balanced by what you get in the lockerroom, the impact it has on the youth coming up, and the way it hopefully begins to change the perception of Buffalo... then it could be worth it
Agree

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08-24-2012, 12:48 PM
  #968
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What if signing Doan means that they can't take a run at Getzlaf in a year?

What if Doan is a disaster on a Leino-ish level and players are afraid of coming here because they have two high priced busts on the roster?

How many players want to come play with vastly overpaid and underachieving players?
The only worry with Doan is when will it end for him. The worry with leino was can the guy even play hockey in the NHL at a consistent rate.

Obviously no one knows when Doan will decline, it may have started last season based on his numbers. Its obviously a risk, but honestly all free agents seem to have risk.

And from what I know of Doan he is one of the most popular and respected players in the NHL, I dont think anyone would say oh the Sabres have Doan, I dont want to play with that guy.

The money is never going to be an issue with buffalo as long as we are talking maybe 1 or 2 years that we have to eat a high cap number. With Leino we may have to eat 5 more years of terrible hockey at a high cap, that is a problem. Doan, I just dont see him being an issue for more than a year or 2, if at all.

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08-24-2012, 12:51 PM
  #969
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Sign Doan at that price and guarantee no cup until after the deal is over. Not unless the current roster and pipeline is a sleeping dynamo.

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08-24-2012, 12:53 PM
  #970
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Sign Doan at that price and guarantee no cup until after the deal is over. Not unless the current roster and pipeline is a sleeping dynamo.
Just one question, say we dont sign Doan how do we win a cup in the next 4 years?

Your point makes no sense. In case you havent realized Buffalo has trouble attracting players, even with money.

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08-24-2012, 12:57 PM
  #971
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Originally Posted by SabresAreScaryGood View Post
Just one question, say we dont sign Doan how do we win a cup in the next 4 years?

Your point makes no sense. In case you havent realized Buffalo has trouble attracting players, even with money.
Take that money and sign players who can push us over the top, not just be third liners with a scoring touch. Which is what Doan will be by year 3.

Buffalo has a recruitment problem because we're at our lowest point right now in terms of attractiveness. You want to make an investment with reasonable value, you wait until your core gets you back in the playoffs and makes you a reasonable destination. Otherwise, you're just spending for nothing. It's the sign of bad, impatient management.

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08-24-2012, 12:57 PM
  #972
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Sign Doan at that price and guarantee no cup until after the deal is over. Not unless the current roster and pipeline is a sleeping dynamo.
Yeah Doan sucks

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08-24-2012, 12:59 PM
  #973
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Yeah Doan sucks
Is Doan the last piece of the puzzle? The very last ****ing piece? No? Then you don't sign him for a price that prevents you from adding anything else.

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08-24-2012, 01:03 PM
  #974
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Is Doan the last piece of the puzzle? The very last ****ing piece? No? Then you don't sign him for a price that prevents you from adding anything else.
What team management in what team sport (let alone fans) know what player is "the last piece" they need to win a championship? And be 100% correct? You do not know if Doan or any UFA the Sabres sign is "the last piece". You need to actually play a season to KNOW if the last UFA signed was the right one.

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08-24-2012, 01:03 PM
  #975
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The only worry with Doan is when will it end for him. The worry with leino was can the guy even play hockey in the NHL at a consistent rate.

Obviously no one knows when Doan will decline, it may have started last season based on his numbers. Its obviously a risk, but honestly all free agents seem to have risk.
Sure all player acquisitions have risk.

I just don't believe Doan is worth the risk at that price.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SabresAreScaryGood View Post
And from what I know of Doan he is one of the most popular and respected players in the NHL, I dont think anyone would say oh the Sabres have Doan, I dont want to play with that guy.
Nobody wants to play with Doan if he's no longer good enough on the ice to be able to improve a club.

I just don't see Doan being an impact player at this stage of his career. And that is impact player money, IMO.

The bottom line on Doan for me is that he won't sign here for what he's worth. And I'd rather see him re-sign with Phoenix than get overpaid here.

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The money is never going to be an issue with buffalo as long as we are talking maybe 1 or 2 years that we have to eat a high cap number. With Leino we may have to eat 5 more years of terrible hockey at a high cap, that is a problem. Doan, I just dont see him being an issue for more than a year or 2, if at all.
Nobody can accurately say if the money will be an issue or not given the CBA uncertainty. If the worst case scenario happens, the Sabres could be in trouble even before signing Doan.

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