Keeper league #1 pick draft dilemma

[Layne Staley]

I am in a 14 team keeper league.One keeper per team, 6 points for all TD's, PPR and 1 point for every 10 yards/25 passing.5 point Bonus at 100 yards rush/rec and 300 yards pass.

I have the #1 overall pick and my keeper is Tom Brady.This draft is a bit tougher, because before I even make the first pick, 14 elite players are already off the board.After going over the keeper list, I have narrowed down my pick to about 5 players.

1.Maurice Jones-Drew
2.Matt Stafford
3.Darren McFadden
4.Adrian Peterson
5.Matt Forte

There are also some players like Victor Cruz,Larry Fitzgerald,Ryan Mathews,AJ Green.

I am only considering Stafford due to the the enormous trade return I could get for Brady or Stafford.I would have taken MJD in a heartbeat but this holdout is totally killing his fantasy value.Matt Forte doesn't score enough TDs to be worthy of this pick IMO.DMC is an elite RB but he is too injury prone.Still, I am considering taking him.And the last possibility is Adrian Peterson.He might be ready week 1, and he may be back in form.If he has a good campaign I would probably even franchise him next year over a soon to be 36 year old Brady.

It's a tough choice I have and this is no doubt going to make or break my draft.I cannot afford anything less then a cornerstone player/performance.Who do I take?

[mouser]

Could you list the players off the board as keepers?

Is the league always going to stay a single player keeper system or might you be able to keep more than one player next season?

Edit: out of the guys you listed Stafford probably has the most value IMO, are you confident you could trade him for a better return then just taking one of the available upper tier running backs though?

[Layne Staley]

We actually voted on 2 keepers this year and it got rejected by 2 votes.This is our 11th year running,so I am certain this league will be running for a very long time.As for my confidence in being able to trade Stafford, I don't see why I shouldn't be able to trade him for a high return but to be honest I'd rather take a RB and not have to worry about having to deal Brady or Stafford.

The 14 keepers

QBs:
Aaron Rodgers
Tom Brady
Drew Brees
Cam Newton
Michael Vick

RBs:
Ray Rice
LeSean McCoy
Arian Foster
Chris Johnson
Marshawn Lynch
Darren Sproles/Peyton Manning (This owner is undecided, draft not for few days anyway)
DeMarco Murray

WR/TE:
Calvin Johnson
Jimmy Graham

[GrigsAndGirgs]

I'd steer clear of MJD for sure. Even if he does play, you're probably not going to use your keeper on him assuming Brady sticks around...so really you're looking at a guy for one year.

Stafford though is intriguing, because you might find long term value of him as a keeper (and trade Brady).

Forte does get receptions though, so a PPR league wouldn't be bad.

I'm not sold on either Peterson or McFadden healthwise, but I'd pick McFadden over Peterson. AP is coming off a major injury to begin with.

[BGDDYKWL]

I'd go McFadden, although if trades happen regularly in your league I'd be very tempted to go Stafford. In a 14-teamer a top QB becomes even more important, and what's nice is when you go to trade him you're getting an RB that you know is healthy/productive, so you don't have to worry about a guy being a bust. Only problem is if you aren't able to trade Stafford early your RB situation is gonna be rough.

[Snipeshow]

McFadden.

[Shape]

McFadden has #1 upside when healthy, I would probly take that gamble. Forte is a beast and very safe in ppr formats. I love how Michael bush has driven his adp down. He's never not been a stud in his short career. He's going to be the focus of that offense. Don't let Marshall or Bush scare you.

[Layne Staley]

I've eliminated taking Stafford and using him as trade bait as I am unsure if I can get a top notch back in return. I am strongly leaning towards McFadden as Bush is gone and is one of the few workhorse backs left. Right now I'd rank it

1.McFadden
2.Forte
3.Jones-Drew


Peterson might be available for me with my second pick, I just want to pick a guy who will get me 20 points a week and play the whole year. Unfortunate I get the #1 pick in a keeper league where 14 studs are already unavailable