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Couturier preps to avoid sophomore slump

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Old
08-26-2012, 04:13 AM
  #51
JABEE
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marklar View Post
This is exactly what PayItForward is talking about. I'm a fan of another team, and I'm not trolling here so please don't accuse me of that, but Couturier doesn't have the offensive ability of a guy like Seguin or Nugent Hopkins. Not close. Those guys are dynamic offensively. Seguin uses speed and a bullet shot to beat the goalie. Nuge uses slick Datsyukian moves and amazing vision. Couturier doesn't have that kind of arsenal. He just doesn't. I've seen him play a ton in junior and last season with Philly, and yes, Bergeron is about his upside I'd say. He is not Francis, he is not going to be better than RNH either. One guy says he's Francis, now that's all you hear...

I don't think other people care if you overrate him, I think you shouldn't overrate him for the sake of your own fanbase, so as to not be disappointed in the end. Let him be who he is, a defensive specialist who may chip in offensively down the road. He'll never fill out that 6'3 frame as you wish, as he doesn't have the body for it. He'll never become the top centre down the line, especially with Giroux there (but he doesn't have #1 centre skill in the first place). Like really, it's night and day comparing Giroux's skill to Couturier. The Q is the highest scoring league by the way, and that's why SC was able to dominate it, because of his height and puck control, mainly.

Hanazal is a great comparison, or a Frans Nielsen, or Bergeron as stated above. Jordan Staal is basically his highest upside along with Bergeron.
How about we give Couturier a chance in an offensive role before we write off his offensive potential. No one had better offensive numbers than Couturier at 16 and 17. No one else in the draft beat him out for the MVP. No one one the best prospect award. None of those other players played the same role that Couturier played last season. Just because Ottawa passed him over in the draft does not make him less of a player. He was an 18 year old that made an NHL contending club out of his first camp. He was the consensus first pick in the draft until people hit him after he only matched his numbers of most points in the Q while improving his PPG statistics.

I've seen enough in Couturier to know that he is the best defensive forward the Flyers have who has outstanding vision, a very nice shot, with tremendous playmaking ability. Give him a chance to get out of his teenage years before you say he is Matrin Hanzal. Saying he's Martin Hanzal won't make Ottawa better for making up lame excuses to pass on Couturier at last year's draft. I think you are underrating Couturier. I don't know how good he will be, but his limit is not Martin Hanzal.

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08-26-2012, 08:13 AM
  #52
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Ha what a clown. How many definitive statements did he just make about the future right there. People like that make me laugh.

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08-26-2012, 11:02 AM
  #53
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lol Marklar was over in the prospects section a couple days ago telling everyone how Couturier was going to be an offensive "bust".

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08-26-2012, 01:13 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Marklar View Post
What?
i say sean puts up 30 goals or more,

it will happen i know this, i have sight beyond sight

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08-26-2012, 01:22 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by Marklar View Post
just my take but I still think that's expecting a lot. And Jonathan Toews isn't a 60 point player, he's at the cusp of being a point per game player now. I am of the opinion that Couturier would not have put up 50+ points if he was given minutes and opportunities like other rookies have gotten. for instance, Landeskog.
Do you follow junior hockey?

Saying Couturier just does not have the offensive acumen of RNH is, looking at their junior careers, extremely flawed, Couturier had the most PPG in his draft year of any CHL draft eligible player... despite having mono.

In a league (the Q), which is the lowest scoring of the 3 junior leagues, Couturier dominated like no player since Crosby (look at the stats, the games ect) as an underager.... he got every trophy apart from top goal scorer it is possible to get in the Q as a forward.

PPG for last two years of junior.

Couturier: 1.52
RNH: 1.26
Landeskog: 0.98

Draft year PPG:

Couturier: 1.66
RNH: 1.54
Landeskog: 1.25

It is not Couturiers fault he is on one of the better NHL teams while RNH and Landeskog are on young, rebuilding teams, so get far more, and better quality ice time and ice-mates.

Couturier spent most of the year with Max Talbot, Zach Rinaldo and Eric Wellwood.

When he was given a more offensive role, with better linemates near christmas and into early Jan, he got 12 points in 18 games.

Not saying I think he will be a 90 point player... but he easily has the potential to develop into that range of 80-90.

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Old
08-26-2012, 01:56 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by BobbyClarkeFan16 View Post
I beg to differ. I think Couturier has just as much raw offensive ability as Seguin does. You mention all these other guys when comparing Couturier (Hanzal, Sutter, Gagner), but Couturier has a track record of being good offensively. Hanzal only averaged more than a point per game in CHL junior season and that was done when he was 19 - 20 years old. Gagner only played one season in the OHL - the highest scoring league in all of junior hockey (I still think Edmonton ruined his development, but that's another story) and Sutter has never been a point per game player anywhere he's been.

Couturier's hockey sense, when compared to those guys, is another planet. You can't compare Couturier to those guys. As for comparing him to Bergeron or Kesler or Richards, Sean put up similar numbers while playing considerably less than those three did in their rookie years. On top of it, Couturier played the toughest minutes out of all those guys and did so while playing the most demanding role - shut down center. That is an INCREDIBLY tough position to play and for a 19 year old to do and do it in such an impressive fashion, that's what makes everyone think he's right up there with Giroux.

On top of it, we saw a sampling of his offensive ability last year. He's got an excellent shot and he managed to get a career year out of Maxim Talbot. Just wait until Couturier gets top notch linemates who can finish off his passes or who can pass to him. A lot of the offense that Couturier generated last year was done practically by himself.

The guy is a Ron Francis clone. And if you ask Lemieux, Jagr, Recchi, Stevens, Tocchet, Barasso, etc.....all those guys from the Pittsburgh championships, they'll tell you that Francis was the most important player during those championship wins. Couturier plays so much like Francis, it's going to be scary once he fills out that 6'3 frame and he gets better linemates. And yes, he probably will replace Giroux as the top center and Giroux will probably move to the wing to accommodate that move.

Yes, very excited about Couturier because he has the skill and he'll be given the opportunity to put up fantastic numbers. You're talking about a high end center who can beat you in so many ways. There's no forward on the team right now that is his defensive equal. Once he's given the opportunity to play more on the offensive side, the man is going to be a killer. All the folks in Edmonton can have Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. I'll take Couturier any day of the week and it's not close.
See, this is what I'm talking about with ridiculous over ration that people give him. He's a good player, who has a high ceiling, no doubt. But RNH and Seguin have a lot more offensive potential than he does and they both have pretty good hockey sense, especially RNH which is off the chart. On top of that, they both play pretty good D, especially Seguin (not that a coach like Julien would have it any other way).

And your right, Sam Gagner isn't a good comparison. My point was that during/after his rookie season people would have taken him over Kessel and Marc Staal. That seems crazy years later.

But Jordan Staal is probably the best comparison. He was one of the most NHL ready players from the 2006 draft, like Couturier (and Landeskog). He was impressive. But Toews, Backstrom and Kessel (all top 5 picks) would most likely (or should with HF board's bias against Kessel) go before him and Giroux would too. Most NHL ready doesn't equal the best player in the draft, which is why you don't do a re-draft a year or 2 later and believe that's how it'll be the rest of the way.

I don't know why people are comparing his path to Giroux's anyway. Giroux was a late round pick who was picked where he was ranked. He needed another year in Junior and he needed a lot of development. No one thought a lot of Giroux (except Flyers fans) after his rookie season. The same cannot be said about Couturier, who everyone ranks and thinks highly of.

I'd trade Couturier for Seguin or RNH in a heartbeat. They're the 2 centers drafted in the past 3 drafts that I think are locks for being top 10 centers in the NHL (if RNH can stay healthy). You should watch them more, they have ridiculously bright futures.

I think he'll be a good player, but no where near Giroux and no where near a superstar.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Giroux tha Damaja View Post
I agree regarding Couturier's offensive potential being a little bit overstated by some, but I also think the poster above me is aiming a little low.

My hopes for his offensive game are something along the lines of Joe Thorton. Not as good, but in that mold: good puck control, sneaky pin point passes, above average shot sedan paced skater, great iq. If he can be a 60 point center who plays defense how he does, that's a Jonathan Toews level player right there. That's dynamite. That's what I hope to see him achieve in the next few years.
Yeah, that's basically what I see and I agree the other poster was aiming low. I just don't see this "superstar" player in him. A player can have "it" and not be a "superstar".

Quote:
Originally Posted by Giroux tha Damaja View Post
Fair enough regarding Toews. I thought he scored about ten points less a season than he did, but I think you can still get my point.

As for as Couturier producing with greater opportunity....he's not landeskog, that's definitely true. Landeskog had an amazing season. But if you look at Couturier's production per60, and look at his qualcomp and most common linemates, and zone starts, and the stats suggest the potential for impressive production.
Landeskog's offensive potential is overrated. He's a great player who has a lot of intangibles, but jeez, the numbers people say he's going to reach are ridiculous IMO.

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08-26-2012, 02:10 PM
  #57
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I love how we can all judge a players potential and offensive ability after one season in the NHL, in which he played the duration on the PK and the fourth line.

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08-26-2012, 02:19 PM
  #58
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Appleyard View Post
Do you follow junior hockey?

Saying Couturier just does not have the offensive acumen of RNH is, looking at their junior careers, extremely flawed, Couturier had the most PPG in his draft year of any CHL draft eligible player... despite having mono.

In a league (the Q), which is the lowest scoring of the 3 junior leagues, Couturier dominated like no player since Crosby (look at the stats, the games ect) as an underager.... he got every trophy apart from top goal scorer it is possible to get in the Q as a forward.

PPG for last two years of junior.

Couturier: 1.52
RNH: 1.26
Landeskog: 0.98

Draft year PPG:

Couturier: 1.66
RNH: 1.54
Landeskog: 1.25

It is not Couturiers fault he is on one of the better NHL teams while RNH and Landeskog are on young, rebuilding teams, so get far more, and better quality ice time and ice-mates.

Couturier spent most of the year with Max Talbot, Zach Rinaldo and Eric Wellwood.

When he was given a more offensive role, with better linemates near christmas and into early Jan, he got 12 points in 18 games.

Not saying I think he will be a 90 point player... but he easily has the potential to develop into that range of 80-90.
In fairness to RNH, Couturier had an extra year of juniors due to his late birthday so the PPG argument is not a good measuring stick. I don't see Couturier having a higher PPG than RNH in the future. I do think he will be better than Landeskog if given the opportunity.

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08-26-2012, 03:02 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Spongolium View Post
I love how we can all judge a players potential and offensive ability after one season in the NHL, in which he played the duration on the PK and the fourth line.
And I love how we can call a player a superstar and anoint him the 2nd coming after one year as well.

Even when Seguin was a rookie, the offensive potential was there. You didn't want him to have the puck because you always felt he was going to do something with it.

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08-26-2012, 03:11 PM
  #60
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Originally Posted by PayItForward View Post
And I love how we can call a player a superstar and anoint him the 2nd coming after one year as well.

Even when Seguin was a rookie, the offensive potential was there. You didn't want him to have the puck because you always felt he was going to do something with it.

No kidding. And as for comparing Junior production to NHL production, a lot of junior players had amazing goal production but they never came close in the NHL and were put into 3rd or 4th line roles.

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08-26-2012, 04:35 PM
  #61
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good for him so I am glad he will change it around.

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08-26-2012, 05:25 PM
  #62
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Originally Posted by Appleyard View Post
Do you follow junior hockey?

Saying Couturier just does not have the offensive acumen of RNH is, looking at their junior careers, extremely flawed, Couturier had the most PPG in his draft year of any CHL draft eligible player... despite having mono.

In a league (the Q), which is the lowest scoring of the 3 junior leagues, Couturier dominated like no player since Crosby (look at the stats, the games ect) as an underager.... he got every trophy apart from top goal scorer it is possible to get in the Q as a forward.

PPG for last two years of junior.

Couturier: 1.52
RNH: 1.26
Landeskog: 0.98

Draft year PPG:

Couturier: 1.66
RNH: 1.54
Landeskog: 1.25

It is not Couturiers fault he is on one of the better NHL teams while RNH and Landeskog are on young, rebuilding teams, so get far more, and better quality ice time and ice-mates.

Couturier spent most of the year with Max Talbot, Zach Rinaldo and Eric Wellwood.

When he was given a more offensive role, with better linemates near christmas and into early Jan, he got 12 points in 18 games.

Not saying I think he will be a 90 point player... but he easily has the potential to develop into that range of 80-90.
Huh?

Yes I follow junior hockey. Religiously. I have no idea where you're coming up with this "the Q is the lowest scoring junior league", but it's actually the worst of the three CHL leagues by far and the easiest for a top prospect to dominate offensively in. Look how many Q players are drafted each year, in the first round especially, and that should give you all the proof you need. The Q has top players like Crosby, Huberdeau, etc. come along every year but their league is pretty shallow other than Saint John and Quebec this season (and no Shawinigan wasn't great). Ask any scout ever, the Q is the easiest league to score in if you're atop prospect, especially if you're 6'4.

I am not talking about their PPG's in junior. I could not care any less about their stats. Couturier does not have the offensive skillset of a guy like RNH. It's night and day in comparison. If everything was based on stats, Couturier would have gone first overall.

Put Couturier in the WHL like RNH, and he's not as dominant as he was in the Q. Guaranteed. Bigger, tougher league to score in. RNH just has more skill, shiftiness, vision. There's a reason he went 1st overall and Couturier went 8th. I'm sorry but you don't follow junior hockey or prospects in general if you think Couturier has as much upside as an RNH. If you think he has the potential to get 80 points, you're going to be disappointed.

That's all I have to say, and I won't return to this forum. No doubt the replies are gonna be all biased anyway, so what's the point of me coming here to show my unbiased views.

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Old
08-26-2012, 05:50 PM
  #63
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Marklar View Post
Huh?

Yes I follow junior hockey. Religiously. I have no idea where you're coming up with this "the Q is the lowest scoring junior league", but it's actually the worst of the three CHL leagues by far and the easiest for a top prospect to dominate offensively in. Look how many Q players are drafted each year, in the first round especially, and that should give you all the proof you need. The Q has top players like Crosby, Huberdeau, etc. come along every year but their league is pretty shallow other than Saint John and Quebec this season (and no Shawinigan wasn't great). Ask any scout ever, the Q is the easiest league to score in if you're atop prospect, especially if you're 6'4.

I am not talking about their PPG's in junior. I could not care any less about their stats. Couturier does not have the offensive skillset of a guy like RNH. It's night and day in comparison. If everything was based on stats, Couturier would have gone first overall.

Put Couturier in the WHL like RNH, and he's not as dominant as he was in the Q. Guaranteed. Bigger, tougher league to score in. RNH just has more skill, shiftiness, vision. There's a reason he went 1st overall and Couturier went 8th. I'm sorry but you don't follow junior hockey or prospects in general if you think Couturier has as much upside as an RNH. If you think he has the potential to get 80 points, you're going to be disappointed.

That's all I have to say, and I won't return to this forum. No doubt the replies are gonna be all biased anyway, so what's the point of me coming here to show my unbiased views.
looooool.

Mad Sens fan is mad that his team passed on Couturier for ****ing Zibanejad.

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08-26-2012, 06:09 PM
  #64
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Huh?

Yes I follow junior hockey. Religiously. I have no idea where you're coming up with this "the Q is the lowest scoring junior league", but it's actually the worst of the three CHL leagues by far and the easiest for a top prospect to dominate offensively in. Look how many Q players are drafted each year, in the first round especially, and that should give you all the proof you need. The Q has top players like Crosby, Huberdeau, etc. come along every year but their league is pretty shallow other than Saint John and Quebec this season (and no Shawinigan wasn't great). Ask any scout ever, the Q is the easiest league to score in if you're atop prospect, especially if you're 6'4.

I am not talking about their PPG's in junior. I could not care any less about their stats. Couturier does not have the offensive skillset of a guy like RNH. It's night and day in comparison. If everything was based on stats, Couturier would have gone first overall.

Put Couturier in the WHL like RNH, and he's not as dominant as he was in the Q. Guaranteed. Bigger, tougher league to score in. RNH just has more skill, shiftiness, vision. There's a reason he went 1st overall and Couturier went 8th. I'm sorry but you don't follow junior hockey or prospects in general if you think Couturier has as much upside as an RNH. If you think he has the potential to get 80 points, you're going to be disappointed.

That's all I have to say, and I won't return to this forum. No doubt the replies are gonna be all biased anyway, so what's the point of me coming here to show my unbiased views.
I think it's stupid to think Couturier will be as good as RNH, but I also think RNH has a ceiling better then that of 80 points.

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08-26-2012, 07:07 PM
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Reading some of the posts here are blowing my mind.

Couturier self-proclaimed "realists" are comparing him to Seguin and RNH. Saying Seguin and RNH are going to be better offensive players at this point is a crap shoot. Anything can happen. However, why are you even comparing them? Seguin and RNH are good fast skaters with "wow" factors in the vein of Giroux. Couturier is a completely different player. He will put up similar numbers in a completely different manner. Why are you comparing. We will just look at the points in the future I suppose, but Couturier will shutdown and use his IQ to make plays. His hockey IQ to me is much more impressive than Seguin and RNH. Those two have better "offensive skills" in the sense of deking and pretty skating, and that doesn't mean they are better offensive players.

Having said that, RNH and Seguin are the better offensive players right now probably. I think everyone is about to see the coming out party that is Sean Couturier this season (if there is one). Flyers fans don't just talk up every player in our system. We talked up Giroux and now we are talking up Couturier. We are 1 for 1 and Couturier will make it a lock for 2/2. Are they the same player, no, but they both have "it."

End of discussion.

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08-26-2012, 08:24 PM
  #66
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Flyers fans don't just talk up every player in our system.
Yeah, we sorta do though.

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08-26-2012, 09:22 PM
  #67
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Originally Posted by Brozgalov View Post
Reading some of the posts here are blowing my mind.

Couturier self-proclaimed "realists" are comparing him to Seguin and RNH. Saying Seguin and RNH are going to be better offensive players at this point is a crap shoot. Anything can happen. However, why are you even comparing them? Seguin and RNH are good fast skaters with "wow" factors in the vein of Giroux. Couturier is a completely different player. He will put up similar numbers in a completely different manner. Why are you comparing. We will just look at the points in the future I suppose, but Couturier will shutdown and use his IQ to make plays. His hockey IQ to me is much more impressive than Seguin and RNH. Those two have better "offensive skills" in the sense of deking and pretty skating, and that doesn't mean they are better offensive players.

Having said that, RNH and Seguin are the better offensive players right now probably. I think everyone is about to see the coming out party that is Sean Couturier this season (if there is one). Flyers fans don't just talk up every player in our system. We talked up Giroux and now we are talking up Couturier. We are 1 for 1 and Couturier will make it a lock for 2/2. Are they the same player, no, but they both have "it."

End of discussion.
RNH has great hockey IQ. He also has great vision. He's going to be an elite playmaker IMO.

And yes we do.

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08-26-2012, 11:57 PM
  #68
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Originally Posted by Giroux tha Damaja View Post
Yeah, we sorta do though.
Maybe I am speaking to myself then. Giroux and Couturier have showed me the "it" factor. Schenn to me still has to prove that.

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08-26-2012, 11:57 PM
  #69
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I beg to differ. I think Couturier has just as much raw offensive ability as Seguin does. You mention all these other guys when comparing Couturier (Hanzal, Sutter, Gagner), but Couturier has a track record of being good offensively. Hanzal only averaged more than a point per game in CHL junior season and that was done when he was 19 - 20 years old. Gagner only played one season in the OHL - the highest scoring league in all of junior hockey (I still think Edmonton ruined his development, but that's another story) and Sutter has never been a point per game player anywhere he's been.

Couturier's hockey sense, when compared to those guys, is another planet. You can't compare Couturier to those guys. As for comparing him to Bergeron or Kesler or Richards, Sean put up similar numbers while playing considerably less than those three did in their rookie years. On top of it, Couturier played the toughest minutes out of all those guys and did so while playing the most demanding role - shut down center. That is an INCREDIBLY tough position to play and for a 19 year old to do and do it in such an impressive fashion, that's what makes everyone think he's right up there with Giroux.

On top of it, we saw a sampling of his offensive ability last year. He's got an excellent shot and he managed to get a career year out of Maxim Talbot. Just wait until Couturier gets top notch linemates who can finish off his passes or who can pass to him. A lot of the offense that Couturier generated last year was done practically by himself.

The guy is a Ron Francis clone. And if you ask Lemieux, Jagr, Recchi, Stevens, Tocchet, Barasso, etc.....all those guys from the Pittsburgh championships, they'll tell you that Francis was the most important player during those championship wins. Couturier plays so much like Francis, it's going to be scary once he fills out that 6'3 frame and he gets better linemates. And yes, he probably will replace Giroux as the top center and Giroux will probably move to the wing to accommodate that move.

Yes, very excited about Couturier because he has the skill and he'll be given the opportunity to put up fantastic numbers. You're talking about a high end center who can beat you in so many ways. There's no forward on the team right now that is his defensive equal. Once he's given the opportunity to play more on the offensive side, the man is going to be a killer. All the folks in Edmonton can have Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. I'll take Couturier any day of the week and it's not close.
Just to put this into perspective, this is why I was comparing his situation to Sam Gagner's:

Where Would Sam Gagner go in the 2008 draft?

Sam Gagner Career

Even you at the time thought that he was going to be "the 2nd coming of Hossa".

Different style and IMO a much better player. But the comparison was about making snap judgements, like people on this site love to do with their what have you done for me lately attitude.

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08-27-2012, 12:30 AM
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Originally Posted by PayItForward View Post
Just to put this into perspective, this is why I was comparing his situation to Sam Gagner's:

Where Would Sam Gagner go in the 2008 draft?

Sam Gagner Career

Even you at the time thought that he was going to be "the 2nd coming of Hossa".

Different style and IMO a much better player. But the comparison was about making snap judgements, like people on this site love to do with their what have you done for me lately attitude.
I think a lot of people would claim that Sam Gagner has been mishandled in Edmonton. It feels like hes been in the league forever and hes only 21 or 22. Edmonton has sucked year after year and its not like he plays with Edmontons best players every night either. His numbers reflect that IMO

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08-27-2012, 06:37 AM
  #71
Norm MacDonald
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The reason Couturier will have a long, successful career is because he is damn smart. When you look at these flash-in-the-pan rookies, the common trend is that although they had the physical skills, they didn't have the hockey IQ to adapt and read the game. IMO that is Couturier's biggest strength.

I see him maxing out at ~70 points, and being able to play in all situations. He'll be a complementary guy who will make the players around him better, and guys like that are really valuable.

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08-27-2012, 07:36 AM
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I actually see Couturier becoming more of a keith tkachuk offensive player. Just being an absolute rock in around the crease. He scored a few dirty goals last year, and has a wrist shot like a laser. I bet he hits 40 goals before he hits 40 assists.

Looking forward to him as our "third" line centre just like we had with Richards-Carter-Briere

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08-27-2012, 11:12 AM
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Originally Posted by Spongolium View Post
I actually see Couturier becoming more of a keith tkachuk offensive player. Just being an absolute rock in around the crease. He scored a few dirty goals last year, and has a wrist shot like a laser. I bet he hits 40 goals before he hits 40 assists.

Looking forward to him as our "third" line centre just like we had with Richards-Carter-Briere
I see Couturier more like a Mats Sundin..Tkachuk-like..I'm not so sure. Maybe Schenn can be like Tkachuk?

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08-27-2012, 11:24 AM
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I see Couturier more like a Mats Sundin..Tkachuk-like..I'm not so sure. Maybe Schenn can be like Tkachuk?
I saw some pretty great qualities with Couturier infront of the net last year. He already has the height and the stick handling, and with him putting on a little weight he's going to be a rock. He's already got some crazy ass skills when holding the puck on the boards.

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08-27-2012, 12:29 PM
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Originally Posted by PALE PWNR View Post
I think a lot of people would claim that Sam Gagner has been mishandled in Edmonton. It feels like hes been in the league forever and hes only 21 or 22. Edmonton has sucked year after year and its not like he plays with Edmontons best players every night either. His numbers reflect that IMO
And he might get better. But in all my point was that as much potential as I see in Couturier, and I do think he's going to be a great player, every highly touted prospect the Flyers get that has a great run or year has those expectations (like JVR). People in general are so quick to look at one year and deem them successes or busts, but the probability that every player reaches their ceiling is not large. Is every one of Seguin, RNH, Galchenyuk, Granlund, Huberdeau, Grigorenko and Couturier going to be a 1st line, top 10 center like their fanbases say? No.

Is B. Schenn a bust because he hasn't lived up to expectations yet? No. Kadri? No (although many disagree on this site). Because Couturier had 27 points playing with bad players in a limited role like Giroux, does it mean he's going to progress the same way or reach the same level? No. Just like Jamie Benn isn't going to become Eric Lindros or become a 90+ point player because he gets 1st PP time, better linemates and Jagr (although I guess he could).

A great rookie year (or one great year in general) doesn't make you a franchise player. It doesn't mean you are going to be a superstar. And it doesn't mean you are going to reach your ceiling. Who a couple years ago would have thought that JVR would have been traded for an underachieving d-man who was benched on one of the worst teams (especially defensively) in the league? It takes years to figure out where each player is headed, which is why people's 2010 re-draft at the beginning of last season had players like Skinner (and arguably Hall, since I think now everyone thinks Seguin > Hall) ahead of Seguin. Who knows, in 5 years maybe Nino is the best player from that draft.

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