I also picked Jurco, but like jaster said, not too confident in the choice.
I really have no idea about how to judge how many goals a player is going to score. I never would have thought Franzen would turn into a 30+ goal scorer after his first year in the league. I believe Tatar and Nyquist are going to be solid top 6 forwards, but I don't know if they're going to score a lot of goals. Frk looks like he has to tools to be a goal scorer, but he's a ways off still.
Filppula is a great player but he doesn't score a ton of goals, so you never really know.