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Rielly>Murray?

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08-28-2012, 11:29 AM
  #301
zeke
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Originally Posted by 416Leafer View Post
To be fair, name me one legitimate franchise Defenceman who isn't considered to have a very high hockey IQ?? Because you can name a few that aren't overly physical (Karlsson, Letang, etc), that aren't overly fast (Chara, Weber, etc). So this is why "hockey IQ" is heavily weight when drafting a D.
I'm not saying hockey IQ isn't important.

I am saying that it's not good enough to make someone a good top-5 pick (IMO) if he doesn't have the elite production to back it up.

This is, in part, because if a player truly does have elite hockey IQ, this most usually will show up on the scoreboard in junior hockey even if the player doesn't have elite NHL-level offensive skill. This is why a guy like Foote racked up elite junior offensive totals despite not having great puckskills - because his hockey IQ scored points for him. People always think fans get sucked in by junior totals thinking that they're looking only at offense.....but that's not really the case. The fact is that the kind of elite hockey sense that makes you an elite defensive player in the NHL most usually lets that kind of player be a dominant scorer in junior, even if the pure skill isn't good enough to be that kind of player in the NHL.

But most importantly it's about upside - I'm not guaranteeing that Rielly will be better than Murray, but IMO Rielly has the clear upside advantage. I like Murray and think he'll be a very good defenseman for years, but I'm skeptical that he has legit #1 dman upside, while I think Rielly does.

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08-28-2012, 12:25 PM
  #302
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Originally Posted by zeke View Post
I'm not saying hockey IQ isn't important.

I am saying that it's not good enough to make someone a good top-5 pick (IMO) if he doesn't have the elite production to back it up.

This is, in part, because if a player truly does have elite hockey IQ, this most usually will show up on the scoreboard in junior hockey even if the player doesn't have elite NHL-level offensive skill. This is why a guy like Foote racked up elite junior offensive totals despite not having great puckskills - because his hockey IQ scored points for him. People always think fans get sucked in by junior totals thinking that they're looking only at offense.....but that's not really the case. The fact is that the kind of elite hockey sense that makes you an elite defensive player in the NHL most usually lets that kind of player be a dominant scorer in junior, even if the pure skill isn't good enough to be that kind of player in the NHL.

But most importantly it's about upside - I'm not guaranteeing that Rielly will be better than Murray, but IMO Rielly has the clear upside advantage. I like Murray and think he'll be a very good defenseman for years, but I'm skeptical that he has legit #1 dman upside, while I think Rielly does.
You're talking stats out of context and making gross generalizations that shouldn't be made about junior defensemen and their value in stats. Shea Weber didn't have very good numbers in the WHL either compared to Dan Hamhuis from a similar era, yet lo and behold Weber's a Norris calibre defenseman and Hamhuis is not.

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08-28-2012, 12:42 PM
  #303
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And nobody picked Weber in the top-5 for a reason.

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08-28-2012, 01:09 PM
  #304
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And nobody picked Weber in the top-5 for a reason.
Well in hindsight, they should have.

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08-28-2012, 01:52 PM
  #305
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Originally Posted by zeke View Post
I'm not saying hockey IQ isn't important.

I am saying that it's not good enough to make someone a good top-5 pick (IMO) if he doesn't have the elite production to back it up.

But most importantly it's about upside - I'm not guaranteeing that Rielly will be better than Murray, but IMO Rielly has the clear upside advantage. I like Murray and think he'll be a very good defenseman for years, but I'm skeptical that he has legit #1 dman upside, while I think Rielly does.
Oh definitely. You're looking for a guy with the right "combination". Great hockey IQ but a bad skater, bad shot and lacks size? Obviously that would be a "project" pick.

But I think considering that Hockey IQ is probably the #1 limiting factor on becoming a franchise Defenceman, that you should look at the draft prospects with that as an attribute first, and then among them find the one(s) with the best combination of the other factors.

Because if you rank those other factors higher, you end up with a Hal Gill if you focus on size but ignore hockey IQ or a Dennis Wideman if you focus on puck skills. You can teach better passing/shooting/stick work, but it's hard to teach overall vision/positioning/reading plays/etc.

As for Rielly vs Murray. Both are phenomenal skaters and both have very high hockey IQ. Rielly needs to round out his defensive game while Murray needs to round out his offensive game. Rielly could very well be the better prospect and only went 5th because of his injury, but it'll be a few years before we figure that out. Either way, both look like they have elite hockey IQ + a well rounded skill set along with elite skating, which means both of them have the potential to be franchise D if they're able to work on their flaws.

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08-28-2012, 02:29 PM
  #306
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Some did, but it seemed insane at the time to trade down to get Myers. We needed a forward then as a building block and staying pat and doing the unimaginative thing and taking Hodgson or Wilson or Filatov if he was available seemed like the right thing to do. Burke trading the pick to get a forward in return basically acknowledges that that asset should have been a forward from the get-go.
Looking back on it, I don't think we were in a position to not go BPA. We didn't have any top end prospects except for maybe Tlusty. He was still considered by most of us to be a great top 6 prospect.

I wanted Filatov, myself, but I have to admit, I liked the move. It seemed bold, and The Silver Fox being bold for TOR had worked in the past. Quite well.

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08-28-2012, 03:12 PM
  #307
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Looking back on it, I don't think we were in a position to not go BPA. We didn't have any top end prospects except for maybe Tlusty. He was still considered by most of us to be a great top 6 prospect.

I wanted Filatov, myself, but I have to admit, I liked the move. It seemed bold, and The Silver Fox being bold for TOR had worked in the past. Quite well.
I think most people wanted Filatov. In hindsight I'm definitely glad we picked Schenn. Schenn got us van Riemsdyk, Filatov netted Columbus a 3rd round pick only 3 years after he was drafted.

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