I don't think I agree with your odds here. And that's just comparing Seguin and Kessel, nevermind that the Bruins also got 2 of their current top prospects out of the deal. One of which is one of the better defensive prospects in the sport...
Again, I'd love it if leaf fans were allowed to say their young players and prospects were better than the 6th highest scorer in hockey, too.
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I've made my argument earlier in the thread, but here it is again. Kessel is a soft, one-dimensional scorer that was not worth the package that was surrendered for him. Remember when he was voted "Easiest Player to Intimidate in the NHL" last year? There's a reason for that. This guy is as soft as wet paper and scares no one. He's an opportunistic scorer, and a good one, but I'd be willing to bet that GMs around the league would take Segiun ALONE never mind throwing in Hamilton and Knight at this point...
Seguin is also a soft, one-doimensional scorer.
As for "opportunistic scorer", I guess if you consider being one of the most dynamic end to end breakout players in hockey as "opportunistic", that would be true.
The opportunistic scorer label fits much better with Seguin, and you can just youtube the clips of their respective goals to see who was responsible for the majority of the legwork on them.
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Let's look at some numbers:
Kessel 82GP 37G 45A 82PTS -10 +/- 20:03TOI/G 3:20PPTOI/G 0:05PKTOI/G 25 years old (in 3 days).
Seguin 81GP 29G 38A 67PTS +34 +/- 16:56TOI/G 2:27PPTOI/G 1:54PKTOI/G 20 years old (and will be until January)
So Seguin is more than 4 years younger and plays less time overall and on the PP. He also kills penalties at 20 years old on a top team full of veterans. Kessel doesn't touch the ice on the PK and is spoon fed as many PP minutes as he can take. Take a look at Kessel's numbers at 20 years old and compare them to Seguin. Also the +/- stats while not the most reliable, and the quality of the team can't be ignored, are alarmingly opposite. I think most people beleive that by the time Seguin is 25 years old he will be a force on the ice, a true 200 foot player. The kind of player Phil Kessel will never be. So you could argue that they are of similar value already, and if Seguin takes off like he looks like he's going to, he'll leave Kessel in the dust. Remember this thread in 4-5 years. You'll see.
Seguin plays an extremely protected and safe role on very tough, deep, and well-coached team. He fills a very similar role as Kessel did on the Bruins, and has produced at a very similar level as Kessel did for the Bruins - though he did make the jump up to this level one year earlier than Kessel did. Kessel having cancer probably didn't help much, though.
Meanwhile, this year, Kessel is the go-to puckman for his team. The guy which every team focusses on, and who is the prime puck mover and creaotor on his line and on the team. Seguin in that role most likely performs not nearly as well, at least not yet.
As for the stats comparison, Seguin did break out one year earlier than Phil, but their breakout years were very similar:
Does Seguin beating kessel to the punch one year earlier make him better? we'll see. Kessel stayed around that level for 3yrs....what happens if Seguin does the same?
Not to mention that Kessel wasn't a playoff choker his first couple of playoffs like Seguin has been:
And no, Seguin is not a true 200-foot player, not in the least. He is soft and lazy defensively.
What's more, the B's are going to be forced to pay Seguin more than Kessel starting next year, even if Seguin doesn't take the jump up to that same level.
Or maybe the Bruins feel like not paying him and trade him away to someone else for draft picks. who knows? They seem to hate all of their top-5 picks of the last 10yrs....I'm worried for poor Seguin if he gets off to a slow start offensively this year, continues playing his soft lazy game, and yet still demands $6m per year longterm from the Bs. Bs fans would turn on him pretty dang fast, I'd guess.
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And again, this doesn't even take into consideration Hamilton and Knight...
This was a terrible trade for the Leafs and will continue to haunt them for years to come. I know it's hard to admit, and Leafs fans enjoy 'Phil the Thrill' but as an outsider to both parties, it's clear that the Leafs will regret this trade and the Bruins have a bright future because of it... Despite Kessel's scoring prowess, the quality of talent the Leafs gave up weighs this trade in Boston's favour and in my opinion this gap will continue to grow as the years go on.
Look yourself in the eye and ask if you'd trade Kessel back to Boston for Seguin, Hamilton and Knight...
I have no idea why you keep bringing up Jordan Knight. He wouldn't even make the Leafs' top-10 prospects, and is a fringe NHL prospect. He is not a consideration in the least.
Hamilton is a very nice prospect, but has some significant flaws in his game - namely his lateral mobility, defensive awareness, and for all his size his lack of physical play. He has a chance to be a very good NHL defenseman, but he's nowhere near a lock to be.
Kessel has already been the best player in the deal for the first 3 years of the deal, and will likely continue to be going forward.
And Kessel could be Stamkos if he gets JUST 15 points more.
15 points is a lot at the top of the standings.
And it is just as likely that Kessel improves on his PPG as well.
Seguin is FOUR years younger than Kessel, and has played in 1/3 of the games. Even zeke noted that Seguin did what Kessel did points wise a full year before. Do you really think Kessel has the same capacity to improve as Seguin?
A 20 year old jumping from 67 points to 82 points in his third season is far less of a leap than Kessel jumping to almost 100 points in his 7th season. How many people hit 100 points?
Your argument that Kessel can still improve the same amount as Seguin just makes Seguin look even better, because hes now a 67 point 20 year old that wont stop improving til hes 25.
I have no idea why you keep bringing up Jordan Knight. He wouldn't even make the Leafs' top-10 prospects, and is a fringe NHL prospect. He is not a consideration in the least.
Hamilton is a very nice prospect, but has some significant flaws in his game - namely his lateral mobility, defensive awareness, and for all his size his lack of physical play. He has a chance to be a very good NHL defenseman, but he's nowhere near a lock to be.
Kessel has already been the best player in the deal for the first 3 years of the deal, and will likely continue to be going forward.
With the exception of Seguin and the fact Boston won a Stanley Cup in his rookie season, even though he didn't have much to do with that and his only major contribution was Game 2 against Tampa Bay in the Eastern Confernece Finals. No one can say how great Jared Knight and Dougie Hamilton are going to be, hell they haven't played a single game in the NHL.
Personally I believe there is a rule for Leafs fans and the 29 other teams. With Leafs fans we always seem to "over hype" our prospects, however when other fans do the same thing it's ok and no one says anything to them.
Last edited by LEAFS FAN 4 EVER: 08-30-2012 at 12:03 PM.
With the excpetion of Seguin and the fact Boston won a Stanley Cup in his rookie season, even though he didn't have much to do with that and his only major contribution was Game 2 against Tampa Bay in the Eastern Confernece Finals. No one can say how great Jordan Knight and Dougie Hamilton are going to be, hell they haven't played a single game in the NHL.
Personally I believe there is a rule for Leafs fans and the 29 other teams. With Leafs fans we always seem to "over hype" our prospects, however when other fans do the same thing it's ok and no one says anything to them.
For future reference...to you AND zeke.
When you analyze a prospect you know nothing about, make sure you get his name right...
Again, I'd love it if leaf fans were allowed to say their young players and prospects were better than the 6th highest scorer in hockey, too.
Seguin is already doing it at the NHL level and Hamilton is about as 'can't miss' as prospects get.
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Seguin is also a soft, one-doimensional scorer.
As for "opportunistic scorer", I guess if you consider being one of the most dynamic end to end breakout players in hockey as "opportunistic", that would be true.
The opportunistic scorer label fits much better with Seguin, and you can just youtube the clips of their respective goals to see who was responsible for the majority of the legwork on them.
Is that why Seguin was +34 and Kessel -10? Why a championship caliber team played a 20 year old consistantly on the PK?
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Seguin plays an extremely protected and safe role on very tough, deep, and well-coached team. He fills a very similar role as Kessel did on the Bruins, and has produced at a very similar level as Kessel did for the Bruins - though he did make the jump up to this level one year earlier than Kessel did. Kessel having cancer probably didn't help much, though.
And no, Seguin is not a true 200-foot player, not in the least. He is soft and lazy defensively.
This is mostly heresay on your part. And I very clearly said Seguin 'will' be a true 200 foot player, not that he is now.
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I have no idea why you keep bringing up Jordan Knight. He wouldn't even make the Leafs' top-10 prospects, and is a fringe NHL prospect. He is not a consideration in the least.
Hamilton is a very nice prospect, but has some significant flaws in his game - namely his lateral mobility, defensive awareness, and for all his size his lack of physical play. He has a chance to be a very good NHL defenseman, but he's nowhere near a lock to be.
Kessel has already been the best player in the deal for the first 3 years of the deal, and will likely continue to be going forward.
It's Jared Knight, and I keep brining him up because he was part of the trade (via 2nd round pick). He's a pretty scrappy prospect that could carve out an NHL career for himself. He'll be in the AHL this year after a successful junior career. You may want to check him out if you want to judge this trade on the whole. You can't just leave things out because they don't fit your argument. He would easily be among the Leafs top 10 prospects. And the fact you're arguing with me about this trade and don't even know who was in it makes me think I've wasted a lot of my time... Good luck with your denial and one day I hope you and a lot of other Leafs fans come to grips with this awful trade...
Last edited by Reign Nateo: 08-30-2012 at 12:16 PM.
And also theoretically keep Seguin and Hamilton. Not a huge deal.
Kessel for the 2nd overall pick (Seguin) was a fair deal. They paid way too much.
And it theoretically could have ended up as Brodin and Niederreiter, or some other combination of prospects, and everybody would be calling Burke an idiot for not trading junk prospects for an established elite superstar.
Hell, even if we got Seguin and Hamilton, people would probably still be calling them junk prospects.
The deal still could end up Kessel for Seguin, but even if it isn't, not a big deal, and not even close to the worst trade, even since the lockout, even for Toronto.
It's Jared Knight, and I keep brining him up because he was part of the trade (via 2nd round pick). He's a pretty scrappy prospect that could carve out an NHL career for himself. He'll be in the AHL this year after a successful junior career. You may want to check him out if you want to judge this trade on the whole. You can't just leave things out because they don't fit your argument. He would easily be among the Leafs top 10 prospects. And the fact you're arguing with me about this trade and don't even know who was in it makes me think I've wasted a lot of my time... Good luck with your denial and one day I hope you and a lot of other Leafs fans come to grips with this awful trade...
Agreed. I'd love to read the Leafs fans posts on here had Burke been on the other end of the deal and traded Kessel for Seguin, Hamilton and Jared Knight. I'm guessing that we'd see a 180 degree change and Mr. Knight's first name would be well known on here!
Seguin is FOUR years younger than Kessel, and has played in 1/3 of the games. Even zeke noted that Seguin did what Kessel did points wise a full year before. Do you really think Kessel has the same capacity to improve as Seguin?
A 20 year old jumping from 67 points to 82 points in his third season is far less of a leap than Kessel jumping to almost 100 points in his 7th season. How many people hit 100 points?
Your argument that Kessel can still improve the same amount as Seguin just makes Seguin look even better, because hes now a 67 point 20 year old that wont stop improving til hes 25.
The difference being that Seguin is already playing top minutes with top players on a top team, while Kessel is playing top minutes with half as many top players on a bottom team.
It is not all about age. Most is about experience and opportunity.
Context would be that youre comparing a kid to a grown man. Yet the kid has twice the amount of hits.
Care to respond to the rest of my post?
No, that would be twisting of stats.
14 hits difference in negligible, especially considering it is not even a standardized stat. Youth has nothing to do with it. Seguin isn't going to grow much more, if at all.
The rest of your post was meaningless. There was nothing to reply to.
Again, I'd love it if leaf fans were allowed to say their young players and prospects were better than the 6th highest scorer in hockey, too.
But Leaf fans can claim the Kaberle deal was an absolute steal right? Even though Colborne is slated to go back to the AHL while his fellow 08 first rounders continue excelling in the NHL already..
Seguin is also a soft, one-doimensional scorer.
Who happens to never get scored against while he was on the ice. Even while being PPG Phil the Thrill still manages to be a Minus player.
As for "opportunistic scorer", I guess if you consider being one of the most dynamic end to end breakout players in hockey as "opportunistic", that would be true.
I think he means a player who neglects defense completely in order to float through the neutral zone. Good for Phil's point totals, not so great for the Leafs
The opportunistic scorer label fits much better with Seguin, and you can just youtube the clips of their respective goals to see who was responsible for the majority of the legwork on them.
Seguin plays an extremely protected and safe role on very tough, deep, and well-coached team. He fills a very similar role as Kessel did on the Bruins, and has produced at a very similar level as Kessel did for the Bruins - though he did make the jump up to this level one year earlier than Kessel did. Kessel having cancer probably didn't help much, though.
kessel is the go-to puckman for his team. The guy which every team focusses on, and who is the prime puck mover and creaotor on his line and on the team. Seguin in that role most likely performs not nearly as well, at least not yet.
So more ice time and power play opportunity = less production? Interesting theory, not so sure about that. You do know that every team is going to score Goals during the year? Why do you think Molson and Parenteau's production skyrocketed when they suddenly were made 1st liners
And no, Seguin is not a true 200-foot player, not in the least. He is soft and lazy defensively. He wasn't named the most easily intimidated player in the NHL by his peers. And 2nd year players typically are still developing their defensive game. Phil's been in the NHL for 6 years and is softer and worse defensively than most rookies
What's more, the B's are going to be forced to pay Seguin more than Kessel starting next year, even if Seguin doesn't take the jump up to that same level.
Or maybe the Bruins feel like not paying him and trade him away to someone else for draft picks. who knows? They seem to hate all of their top-5 picks of the last 10yrs....I'm worried for poor Seguin if he gets off to a slow start offensively this year, continues playing his soft lazy game, and yet still demands $6m per year longterm from the Bs. Bs fans would turn on him pretty dang fast, I'd guess.
Yeah Boston really screwed up bad giving up Kessel. The way Kessel has really torched them whenever the Bruins play the Leafs is especially evident. Seguin will be RFA while Kessel will be UFA in two years. We know Phil doesn't believe in hometown discounts.. you better just hope Phil likes ending his season early every year... the playoffs can be a bit physical and Phil's got his regular season point totals to take care of.
I have no idea why you keep bringing up Jordan Knight. He wouldn't even make the Leafs' top-10 prospects, and is a fringe NHL prospect. He is not a consideration in the least.
Hamilton is a very nice prospect, but has some significant flaws in his game - namely his lateral mobility, defensive awareness, and for all his size his lack of physical play. He has a chance to be a very good NHL defenseman, but he's nowhere near a lock to be.
Jared Knight is the 3rd best prospect on a prospect pool that is rated better than the Leafs according to HockeysFuture http://www.hockeysfuture.com/article...ng-2012-11-20/ but he wouldn't be top 10 in the Leafs system?
Wait, who overrates their prospects again?
Hamilton is the best defensive prospect in the world. Thanks for your talent analysis though.
Kessel has already been the best player in the deal for the first 3 years of the deal, and will likely continue to be going forward. "Already" the best player? Wow, that's pretty impressive considering he was traded for draft selections that wouldn't be made 1 and 2 years from the time of the trade. Boston has already been the much better team despite giving up the established player and will likely (definitely) continue to be the better team going forward.
You realize you are comparing an 18/19 year old kid to a 23/24 year old and the younger kid has twice the amount of hits? In ~2/3 the amount of ice time?
The odds are never? So no one can be a top 6 scorer?
No.
Players are never "odds on" going to become a top-6 scorer.
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Segs played under 17 minutes a night and put up 67 points.
Kessel played over 20 minutes a night and put up 82 points.
Seguin 19/20 year old season (birthday Jan 31): .979 PP/20 minutes
Kessel 24 year old season: .997 PP/ 20 minutes
Kessel 20 year old season (sophomore campaign): .59 PP/20 minutes
And Kessel got ~76 more minutes on PP1 while Segs was on PP2.
More TOI and more PP time= Equal more opportunity and more production. Seguin will never get 20 minute a night as long as CJ is the coach but I can see him being a PPG player with 18:30 TOI.
You tell me if it looks like Segs chance at being PPG "top 6 scorer in the game are never."
You misread my sentence.
I didn't say Seguin never had a chance to be a top-6 scorer. I said that a player is never "odds on" going to be a top-6 scorer.
Agreed. I'd love to read the Leafs fans posts on here had Burke been on the other end of the deal and traded Kessel for Seguin, Hamilton and Jared Knight. I'm guessing that we'd see a 180 degree change and Mr. Knight's first name would be well known on here!
Like someone mentioned before in the Lupul/Gardiner trade for Beauchemin the Leafs clearly won that trade with the Ducks, however Leafs fans don't throw it back in the faces of Ducks fans.
Plus this past season Jake Gardiner was a complete surprise because everyone thought he would have spent the majority or all of the season in the AHL with the Toronto Marlies, so the fact people talk about Gardiner is that no one saw that coming and not over hyping him because some can't stand when Burke made a great move.
The difference being that Seguin is already playing top minutes with top players on a top team, while Kessel is playing top minutes with half as many top players on a bottom team.
It is not all about age. Most is about experience and opportunity.
Its about age when the player has played 301 more games than the other person haha.
Kessel also played with Marc Savard his third year, still didnt outscore Seguin in his second year.
We've reached the point where we're going around in circles, agree to disagree I guess.
With the exception of Seguin and the fact Boston won a Stanley Cup in his rookie season, even though he didn't have much to do with that and his only major contribution was Game 2 against Tampa Bay in the Eastern Confernece Finals.
If people want to crow about the Cup (which is fair), they should acknowledge that they were forced to trade a 1st rounder and their #2dman to fill the Kessel gap with Horton.
Like someone mentioned before in the Lupul/Gardiner trade for Beauchemin the Leafs clearly won that trade with the Ducks, however Leafs fans don't throw it back in the faces of Ducks fans.
Plus this past season Jake Gardiner was a complete surprise because everyone thought he would have spent the majority or all of the season in the AHL with the Toronto Marlies, so the fact people talk about Gardiner is that no one saw that coming and not over hyping him because some can't stand when Burke made a great move.
But do you see the difference here?
Lupul was actually as good or better than Beauch THIS year, and Gardiner was great too THIS year.
The Leafs won this trade in year ONE, they're not still HOPING to eventually win the deal 3 years after it was made.
If it was 3yrs after the Beauch deal and the Leafs still didn't have the best player in the deal, it wouldn't be considered even a win, let alone a "fleecing".
Kessel also played with Marc Savard his third year, still didnt outscore Seguin in his second year.
It's funny you mention Marc Savard because how many people said Kessel couldn't put up the numbers he did in Boston without him. It turns out that playing with Tyler Bozak didn't hurt Kessel at all since he's been with the Leafs.
If people want to crow about the Cup (which is fair), they should acknowledge that they were forced to trade a 1st rounder and their #2dman to fill the Kessel gap with Horton.
Eh, I think the result of the year and the earlier 1st we had made it worth it. Just maybe.
We also got Campbell in that trade, one of the best 4th line centers in the league.
Like someone mentioned before in the Lupul/Gardiner trade for Beauchemin the Leafs clearly won that trade with the Ducks, however Leafs fans don't throw it back in the faces of Ducks fans.
Plus this past season Jake Gardiner was a complete surprise because everyone thought he would have spent the majority or all of the season in the AHL with the Toronto Marlies, so the fact people talk about Gardiner is that no one saw that coming and not over hyping him because some can't stand when Burke made a great move.
I've seen a lot of Leaf fans patting Burke on the back for the Gardiner trade which I agree was a very good one.
I don't understand why they have trouble acknowledging when Burke makes an awful trade like the Kessel one. It's no tas if defending Burke is going to change the fact that this was a pretty bad trade. Again, I think most objective fans would take Seguin, Hamilton and Knight over Kessel as would every GM in the league. It's a pretty one sided trade.
