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2012-13 point total prediction: Kyle Wellwood

View Poll Results: How many points will Wellwood score in 2012-13
Less than 20 0 0%
20-24 0 0%
25-29 1 4.35%
30-34 8 34.78%
35-39 5 21.74%
40-44 5 21.74%
45-49 3 13.04%
50-54 0 0%
55-59 0 0%
More than 60 1 4.35%
Voters: 23. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
08-28-2012, 08:29 AM
  #1
Hank Chinaski
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2012-13 point total prediction: Kyle Wellwood

I'm interested to see the results on this one. My prediction:

GP: 64
G: 10
P: 34

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08-28-2012, 09:29 AM
  #2
garret9
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Almost as interesting as Jokinen...

78 GP
13 G
20 A
33 PTS

NamePOS GP TOI/60 CORSION CORSIQoC OZS G/60 A1/60 A2/60 P/60
KWELLWOOD RW 77 12.69 12.65 -0.479 60.5 0.74 0.68 0.74 2.15

Most common line-mates (in order):
Antropov (415:52), Ladd (412:32), Burmistrov (330:11), Kane (300:52)

Most common D on ice with (in order):
Stuart (300:15), Bogosian (283:32), Oduya (259,07), Hainsey (257:40)

YearGP Shots SH% Goals
05-06 81 117 9.4 11
06-07 48 99 12.1 12
07-08 59 57 14.0 8
08-09 74 94 19.1 18
09-10 75 98 14.3 14
10-11 35 50 10.0 5
11-12 77 93 19.4 18

It will be interesting to see how he repeats. His sh% tends to be high due to his style but 19.4 is way too high to expect repeat. His shot count doesn't vary much per game each season either. Also, he lead the team in secondary assists, so I wouldn't place much hope in repeat there.

He still is an intellegent player with great hands. His goals tend to be dirty infront of the net from smart placement and he can make good plays. My guess is his production levels will be similar at first, playing with Jokinen and Kane/Ladd but then will drop a tad as he plays with Poni and Antro (after being pushed down by Burmi) in the later part of the year. He will still be the most likely candidate for top6 mins with injuries though.


Last edited by garret9: 08-28-2012 at 11:54 AM. Reason: too not to.... silly rabbit
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Old
08-28-2012, 09:32 AM
  #3
surixon
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12g 23a for 35 points. Will probably bounce between the second a nd third line all year. His production will be tied to Burmie's play.

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08-28-2012, 09:34 AM
  #4
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10g
30p

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08-28-2012, 09:46 AM
  #5
YWGinYYZ
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I think the 3rd line will surprise - depending on TOI, I could see Wellwood putting up 35-40pts this year, which would be outstanding in a 3rd line role. Poni and Antro (for all the flack he gets) plus Wellwood could be a very dangerous defensive line - get out of position, and I think they're going to make you pay for it.

It's very encouraging to see how much work he's putting into getting into shape in the offseason.

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08-28-2012, 09:53 AM
  #6
Guerzy
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Even in a likely 3rd line role, which will come with lesser icetime, I still believe Wellwood (along with the likes of Antropov and Ponikarovsky) can accumulate solid offensive contributions in the form of 30-40 points each. Wellwood declined a 2-year contract offer and instead opted for a 1 year deal, so I believe we see yet another strong and reliable season from Kyle.

In his last 3 full NHL seasons he's scored 18, 14, 18 goals (all with 98 shots or less). His high shooting % is not a fluke, nowhere near a fluke in my opinion. He'll generally always be around the 14-19% mark. When Wellwood shoots, it's generally at the most opportune times. Or he's in the right place at the right time (in front of the net), but he's got a knack for it.

I'm going to say Wellwood scores 12-15 goals and around 20-25 assists. I think he's good for anywhere from 30-40 points. I voted 30-34 points.

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Last edited by Guerzy: 08-28-2012 at 10:27 AM.
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Old
08-28-2012, 10:01 AM
  #7
YWGinYYZ
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guerzy View Post
(...)
In his last 3 full NHL seasons he's scored 18, 14, 18 goals (all with 98 shots or less). His high shooting % is not a fluke, nowhere near a fluke in my opinion. He'll generally always be around the 14-19% mark. When Wellwood shoots, it's generally at the most opportune times. Or he's in the right place at the right time (in front of the net), but he's got a knack for it.
(...)
I agree - he's definitely an opportunist around the net. Unlike some players that shoot like there's an oncoming hoard of zombies (which works well for some players, don't get me wrong), Wellwood seems to A) be in the right place around the net and B) shoot with a purpose. I agree with your assessment of 12-15 goals. If Poni and Antro can put up similar numbers, it'll actually be nice to not cringe when our 3rd line hops on the ice.

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08-28-2012, 10:07 AM
  #8
garret9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
I think the 3rd line will surprise - depending on TOI, I could see Wellwood putting up 35-40pts this year, which would be outstanding in a 3rd line role. Poni and Antro (for all the flack he gets) plus Wellwood could be a very dangerous defensive line - get out of position, and I think they're going to make you pay for it.

It's very encouraging to see how much work he's putting into getting into shape in the offseason.
Don't get me wrong, I think we'll have one of the most offensively threatening third lines... but we also have to keep ourselves in a bit of check too. Averaging 30-35 points is pretty good for a third line; expecting an average of 35-40 pts might push it for the line (1 may be in that range though).

Last year here's how the 7-9th point forward for each team averaged (so theoretically the third line):
BOS 34
PIT 36
DET 28
NYR 27
SJS 22
PHI 36
SLB 25
VAN 27

Quote:
Originally Posted by Guerzy View Post
...He'll generally always be around the 14-19% mark...
While I agree with you his numbers will tend to be high since he picks his shots well and is smart with rebounding; I don't think you should ever expect repeats with career highs. Players almost always fall to 8-16% depending on the player... Steven Stamkos is the only one I can think of that sustains very very high sh%.

So high relative to NHL players (14-16%), yes I expect that from Wellwood. Another career high (19%), I don't expect that but I wouldn't be too suprised if he pulls it off 1 more time in his career.


Last edited by garret9: 08-28-2012 at 10:15 AM.
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Old
08-28-2012, 10:12 AM
  #9
YWGinYYZ
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Don't get me wrong, I think we'll have one of the most offensively threatening third lines... but we also have to keep ourselves in a bit of check too. Averaging 30-35 points is pretty good for a third line; expecting an average of 35-40 pts might push it for the line (1 may be in that range though).

Last year here's how the 7-9th point forward for each team averaged (so theoretically the third line):
BOS 34
PIT 36
DET 28
NYR 27
SJS 22
PHI 36
SLB 25
VAN 27
I see no reason why the combo of Poni, Antro and Welly can't be on the high side of those averages. I'd be ecstatic if they average 35pts, and believe it's possible. I would never claim that the line as a whole would average 40pts - that's unreasonable for the TOI they're likely to receive.

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08-28-2012, 10:31 AM
  #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
I agree - he's definitely an opportunist around the net. Unlike some players that shoot like there's an oncoming hoard of zombies (which works well for some players, don't get me wrong), Wellwood seems to A) be in the right place around the net and B) shoot with a purpose. I agree with your assessment of 12-15 goals. If Poni and Antro can put up similar numbers, it'll actually be nice to not cringe when our 3rd line hops on the ice.
Welly definitely is a smart shooter and that is reflected in his high shooting percentage.

Welly's career mark is 14.1% which is pretty darn high.

Among active players from 2001-now (minimum 50 goals scored), Welly ranks 32nd.

Zero players score on more than 18.3% of their shots.

http://www.hockey-reference.com/play...er_by=shot_pct

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08-28-2012, 10:43 AM
  #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by YWGinYYZ View Post
I see no reason why the combo of Poni, Antro and Welly can't be on the high side of those averages. I'd be ecstatic if they average 35pts, and believe it's possible. I would never claim that the line as a whole would average 40pts - that's unreasonable for the TOI they're likely to receive.
I hope they hit 35, but unless they get extended roles as injury fill-ins, I highly doubt they will land north of 30. 30+ will very likely put the Jets in the playoffs. 35+ would put them in contention for a division title and 40ish would put them in contention for a Presidents Trophy.

I posted this in another thread, but it is relevant...

Over the last 5 years, these teams have had nine 35 point players:
2011-12: Nobody.
2010-11: Chicago did it with 258 GF. Detroit and the Flyers were close.
2009-10: Nobody.
2008-09: Detroit did it with 294 GF. Boston did it with 274 GF. Pens did it with 264 GF.
2007-08: Nobody.

I would love to see it, but tough defensive assignment will slow somebody down.

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08-28-2012, 10:59 AM
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garret9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by truck View Post
I hope they hit 35, but unless they get extended roles as injury fill-ins, I highly doubt they will land north of 30. 30+ will very likely put the Jets in the playoffs. 35+ would put them in contention for a division title and 40ish would put them in contention for a Presidents Trophy.

I posted this in another thread, but it is relevant...

Over the last 5 years, these teams have had nine 35 point players:
2011-12: Nobody.
2010-11: Chicago did it with 258 GF. Detroit and the Flyers were close.
2009-10: Nobody.
2008-09: Detroit did it with 294 GF. Boston did it with 274 GF. Pens did it with 264 GF.
2007-08: Nobody.

I would love to see it, but tough defensive assignment will slow somebody down.
I'm going to say the 3rd line will average 34-36 pts. I think their offensive upside is higher than at least half of the NHL's third line... plus... I'd say, we only have 5 that are cemented in the top6; I can see any of Burmi, Welly, Antro and Poni revolving into some top6 TOI and PP mins.

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08-28-2012, 11:27 AM
  #13
broinwhyteridge
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hank Chinaski View Post
I'm interested to see the results on this one. My prediction:

GP: 64
G: 10
P: 34
I'll go with these numbers, but over 72 games.

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08-28-2012, 11:40 AM
  #14
KingSalamon
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Something around the 35 point mark sounds good... sure if he plays 3rd line it may be tough but Welly's capable of doing it.

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08-28-2012, 11:53 AM
  #15
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68gp
15g
27a

42pts

Hey. It's a contract year.

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08-30-2012, 08:48 PM
  #16
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30-34 points for Wellwood.

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