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Leafs' first-round pick Rielly enjoying whirlwind summer

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Old
08-31-2012, 12:30 AM
  #26
Pi
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Originally Posted by Hurt View Post
Except that hardly ever happens. I'd be pleased if 2 of Rielly, Percy, Blacker, Finn became mainstays on our D. We all love to drool over prospects but the odds are against them.
Why can't it happen?

Blacker, Percy have shown promise and if there is one position the Leafs know how to develop, it's defense.. despite our bad reputation. Finn was a steal in the 2nd round and living close to Guelph and watching a few games, I can say that he was often the Storm's best player, responsible at both ends of the ice and contributed heavily to the offense.

I'm quite shocked that the terrible Storm team actually made the playoffs. They don't have much talent.

I thought he'd be our first round pick for sure before we crashed and landed to 5th last.

Look at a team like Boston, the last "good" defenseman they developed was Hal Gill, Hunwick in 03', Stuart etc. Every other defenseman is from UFA or traded for. They haven't developed any impact defenseman in nearly 20 years.

Leafs have developed plenty of defenseman that are on other teams right now. There is a good chance Blacker, Percy, Finn are all NHL defenseman, doesn't necessarily have to be on the Leafs.

Also, the odds are usually against players drafted in rounds 3-7..they're basically like buying a lottery ticket. Rounds 1-2 where all of our young defenseman are drafted definitely have better chances to make the NHL.

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08-31-2012, 12:35 AM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Pi View Post
Why can't it happen?

Blacker, Percy have shown promise and if there is one position the Leafs know how to develop, it's defense.. despite our bad reputation. Finn was a steal in the 2nd round and living close to Guelph and watching a few games, I can say that he was often the Storm's best player, responsible at both ends of the ice and contributed heavily to the offense.

I'm quite shocked that the terrible Storm team actually made the playoffs. They don't have much talent.

I thought he'd be our first round pick for sure before we crashed and landed to 5th last.

Look at a team like Boston, the last "good" defenseman they developed was Hal Gill.. every other defenseman is from UFA or traded for.

Leafs have developed plenty of defenseman that are on other teams right now. There is a good chance Blacker, Percy, Finn are all NHL defenseman, doesn't necessarily have to be on the Leafs.

Also, the odds are usually against players drafted in rounds 3-7..they're basically like buying a lottery ticket. Rounds 1-2 where all of our young defenseman are drafted definitely have better chances to make the NHL.
That's the thing. Every year, every team drafts guys thinking they have drafted the next NHL regular. No one drafts players hoping for them to be busts but the reality of it is, not many players DO make it. Looking back at TML Drafting history, since 2000 to 2007, we have drafted 6 D-men who have managed to play over 100 NHL games. Of those 6, only one still is a Leaf (Gunnarsson). You really think we'll strike 4 in 2 years and they'll all be dressing up as Leafs?

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08-31-2012, 01:03 AM
  #28
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Originally Posted by Hurt View Post
That's the thing. Every year, every team drafts guys thinking they have drafted the next NHL regular. No one drafts players hoping for them to be busts but the reality of it is, not many players DO make it. Looking back at TML Drafting history, since 2000 to 2007, we have drafted 6 D-men who have managed to play over 100 NHL games. Of those 6, only one still is a Leaf (Gunnarsson). You really think we'll strike 4 in 2 years and they'll all be dressing up as Leafs?
I'll start off saying, I know what you're saying, and I agree with you. The odds are against most of out D prospects being NHLers, let alone play for the Leafs...

But I will argue, you cannot judge based off of our past drafting records. Scouting staffs change, prospect development changes, etc.

We are arguably top 3 in the league with young D-men....

Reilly
Gardiner
Percy
Finn
Blacker
Granberg
Nilsson
MacWilliam
Holzer
Loov
Everson
Robertson
Knodel


This, is pretty good quality, and pretty deep. I'm liking our chances that at least 4 or 5 of these prospects will be quality NHLers.

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08-31-2012, 01:10 AM
  #29
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I have no doubt blacker will make it to the show. He can carry a team on his back.

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08-31-2012, 01:12 AM
  #30
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Originally Posted by bobermay View Post
I'll start off saying, I know what you're saying, and I agree with you. The odds are against most of out D prospects being NHLers, let alone play for the Leafs...

But I will argue, you cannot judge based off of our past drafting records. Scouting staffs change, prospect development changes, etc.

We are arguably top 3 in the league with young D-men....

Reilly
Gardiner
Percy
Finn
Blacker
Granberg
Nilsson
MacWilliam
Holzer
Loov
Everson
Robertson
Knodel


This, is pretty good quality, and pretty deep. I'm liking our chances that at least 4 or 5 of these prospects will be quality NHLers.
I'll be honest...Gardiner and Rielly, those are the only 2 I think are locks to make it. Percey, Finn, Blacker, Holzer...none of them are locks, and if they do make it as NHL regulars, I see them more as 3rd pairing dmen then I do as 2nd pairing (let's be real, none have much chance at 1st pairing).

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08-31-2012, 01:25 AM
  #31
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Originally Posted by MeowLeafs View Post
I'll be honest...Gardiner and Rielly, those are the only 2 I think are locks to make it. Percey, Finn, Blacker, Holzer...none of them are locks, and if they do make it as NHL regulars, I see them more as 3rd pairing dmen then I do as 2nd pairing (let's be real, none have much chance at 1st pairing).
Well, time will tell, But I'd think Percy, Finn and Blacker play a style of game that is more suitable for a top 4 d man, than a bottom 2.

Also, Don't underestimate our sweedes in Granberg, Nilsson and Loov... and the North Dakota captain in MacWilliam.

All have potential to make the NHL IMO.

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08-31-2012, 01:32 AM
  #32
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Well, time will tell, But I'd think Percy, Finn and Blacker play a style of game that is more suitable for a top 4 d man, than a bottom 2.

Also, Don't underestimate our sweedes in Granberg, Nilsson and Loov... and the North Dakota captain in MacWilliam.

All have potential to make the NHL IMO.
I think they play a style of game that's more suited to top 4...but simply put, they might not actually be good enough for top 4. Meaning there's a chance they might not even be NHL regulars, let alone top 4 or top 6.

And I don't think I'm underestimating them. You say they have potential to make the NHL. So do many dmen, and most never will.

My guess is outside of Gardiner and Rielly, at most only 1 other will make it as top 4.

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08-31-2012, 01:38 AM
  #33
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Originally Posted by MeowLeafs View Post
I think they play a style of game that's more suited to top 4...but simply put, they might not actually be good enough for top 4. Meaning there's a chance they might not even be NHL regulars, let alone top 4 or top 6.

And I don't think I'm underestimating them. You say they have potential to make the NHL. So do many dmen, and most never will.

My guess is outside of Gardiner and Rielly, at most only 1 other will make it as top 4.
Yeah, and thats fine, and not what I claimed in my first post.... I said I like the chances of 4 or 5 of 13 prospects making the NHL... so 2 or 3 make it top four, 2 or 3 bottom 2.... thats not horrible....

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08-31-2012, 02:47 AM
  #34
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Hard to tell what player will make it and what won't when they're at such a young age.

However Hockey IQ and really good skating are a great indicator that they will at least be decent at the NHL level.

It's those big project players that only pan out a small amount of the time.

Percy has great hockey IQ(Not sure on his skating), Rielly has fantastic skating and IQ.

Probably the biggest thing holding some players back is skating, look at guys like Mark fraser, great stay at home d-man, but his skating is poor.

Jesse Blacker is still a toss-up for me, I wanna see him get a call-up as I'm not sure on him yet. Finn is also a long ways away.

Either way we have a tonne of defensive prospect depth and it's a fair prediction to say Phaneuf, Gardiner and Rielly will be making up 3/4ths of our top 4 within a couple years.

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08-31-2012, 03:05 AM
  #35
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Originally Posted by Hurt View Post
Except that hardly ever happens. I'd be pleased if 2 of Rielly, Percy, Blacker, Finn became mainstays on our D. We all love to drool over prospects but the odds are against them.
Rielly is as sure-fire of a defensive prospect as we've had in a long time. I think he's a lock to at least be a second pairing dman, in the worst case. The others, well, I'll be happy if one of the three can be more than a third pairing dman. That's just realistic expectations. Of course, that doesn't include Gardiner who's on par with Rielly in terms of potential.

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08-31-2012, 06:58 AM
  #36
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Finn, Percy, and Rielly are sure things. All 3 should be top 2 pairing D men. You can't teach hockey IQ, all 3 have spades of this.

Blacker is still a question mark for me, at worst he has the talent to be a 4 guy but hockey IQ is questionable.

The surprise guys are Loov, Nilsson, and Granberg. I wouldn't be surprised if one of them turn out to be solid NHL'ers.

There's Holzer also, I want to see him for an extended stay this year to gauge him. Quiet, efficient, sneaky nasty. When I saw him last year, I was struck at his size, made Komi look like a shrimp. Could be a surprise.

All in all, defence will be the least of our problems, may just need a big tough axman back there in the Dalton Thrower mold.

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08-31-2012, 07:18 AM
  #37
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Originally Posted by Interactif View Post
Finn, Percy, and Rielly are sure things. All 3 should be top 2 pairing D men. You can't teach hockey IQ, all 3 have spades of this.

Blacker is still a question mark for me, at worst he has the talent to be a 4 guy but hockey IQ is questionable.

The surprise guys are Loov, Nilsson, and Granberg. I wouldn't be surprised if one of them turn out to be solid NHL'ers.

There's Holzer also, I want to see him for an extended stay this year to gauge him. Quiet, efficient, sneaky nasty. When I saw him last year, I was struck at his size, made Komi look like a shrimp. Could be a surprise.

All in all, defence will be the least of our problems, may just need a big tough axman back there in the Dalton Thrower mold.
If scouts believed Percy and Finn were locks then there's no way they would have slipped IMO. Do I like the players? yes. Do I like that we scooped them up? yes. Are they locks? absolutely not IMO.

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08-31-2012, 07:45 AM
  #38
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While I'm not ready to jump aboard the Rielly hype train yet, and I think that people are getting a little out of control with projections for him, I am glad that Burke seems to be drafting a bunch of the smart Offensive d-men type. If even one of Percy, Finn, or Rielly develops their defensive game and can maintain offensive at the pro-level, we could have a solid player on our hands.

Drafting Schenn was a decent pick, but in hindsight, drafting Defensive D-men usually doesn't leave much room for improvement. The ceiling usually isn't as high because it is much harder to develop an offensive game than it is to develop a defensive one.

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08-31-2012, 07:52 AM
  #39
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Originally Posted by Interactif View Post
Finn, Percy, and Rielly are sure things. All 3 should be top 2 pairing D men. You can't teach hockey IQ, all 3 have spades of this.

Blacker is still a question mark for me, at worst he has the talent to be a 4 guy but hockey IQ is questionable.

The surprise guys are Loov, Nilsson, and Granberg. I wouldn't be surprised if one of them turn out to be solid NHL'ers.

There's Holzer also, I want to see him for an extended stay this year to gauge him. Quiet, efficient, sneaky nasty. When I saw him last year, I was struck at his size, made Komi look like a shrimp. Could be a surprise.

All in all, defence will be the least of our problems, may just need a big tough axman back there in the Dalton Thrower mold.
lol so according to you out of our d-men prospects we have 3 top 2 defensemen, 3 guys who one will be a solid NHLer (so like a 3-4 guy), Oh and Blacker is a min 4 guy?

Overhyping prospects much?

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08-31-2012, 08:02 AM
  #40
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Originally Posted by AmazedRink View Post
Yes, I forgot the all-encompassing Gardiner, my apologies to the legions of Leaf fans that have been offended by my droned lineup.

My new lineup:

Rielly Gardiner
Percy Phaneuf
Finn Blacker

We is all fap now.
Softest defense in hockey history? When Blacker is the second toughest guy in the group.... Yikes.

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08-31-2012, 08:56 AM
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lol so according to you out of our d-men prospects we have 3 top 2 defensemen, 3 guys who one will be a solid NHLer (so like a 3-4 guy), Oh and Blacker is a min 4 guy?

Overhyping prospects much?
I think he means they should be in one of the two top-pairings, so that would make them top-4. So Finn, Percy and Rielly should all become top-4 guys, with Blacker having potential to become one as well. And then he listed 3 other guys who could make the NHL, and anywhere in the D-core would be a success for them. Saying that 3 projected-1st-rounders could all become top-4 defensemen in the NHL isn't that big a stretch, and isn't over-hyping them when it's just allowing them to reach their potential. Everyone saying what these kids can become is very careful in expressing that it's just the best possible outcome, not necessarily a prediction of any kind.

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08-31-2012, 09:07 AM
  #42
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Softest defense in hockey history? When Blacker is the second toughest guy in the group.... Yikes.
Agreed. A couple of those guys are future trade bait.

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08-31-2012, 09:48 AM
  #43
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Softest defense in hockey history? When Blacker is the second toughest guy in the group.... Yikes.
Holzer would toughen that group up.

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08-31-2012, 10:26 AM
  #44
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The reality is that only about 3 or so of them will be Leafs for their career ...

Phaneuf, Gardiner, and Reilly will make up 3 of our six D. Add one of Percy / Blacker / Finn, and maybe a long shot like Granberg / Holzer in the bottom pairing. There will likely always be another vertern UFA / trade in there to add more experience.

I'm not saying that more won't become NHL'ers - but some will be traded at some point for help elsewhere as it's our position of strength.

Reilly is a pretty sure bet to be an impact NHL'er - likely top pairing guy
Percy / Blacker / Finn are all very likely to end up being solid 2nd pairing guys in the NHL. Holzer and Granberg have shown the potential to be bottom pairing guys. I like the long shot of Nilson - he reminds a bit of Danny Markov.

The fact remains though, that likely at least one or more won't hit their potential, but it's also as likely that one or more exceeds their potential.

The other thing to consider is that you still need some sandpaper there, and that's where a spot will likely get filled by a UFA / Vet.

In a few years, I can see:

Phaneuf Reilly
Gardiner Vet
Percy Granberg

With Blacker & Finn moved for help elsewhere.

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08-31-2012, 10:44 AM
  #45
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Why would Holzer be considered a long shot? He was likely the top shut down defenceman in the AHL last season and that includes the veterans in the league.

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08-31-2012, 10:49 AM
  #46
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lol so according to you out of our d-men prospects we have 3 top 2 defensemen, 3 guys who one will be a solid NHLer (so like a 3-4 guy), Oh and Blacker is a min 4 guy?

Overhyping prospects much?
Other than Blacker being a 4min guy and the 1 will be a 3 or 4 guy, your words not mine. Yep, i stand by what I said.

You have my permission to say hey you were right in 2 to 3 years though. BTW do me a favour qoute me accurately. I hate it when people misquote what I said.

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08-31-2012, 10:53 AM
  #47
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The reality is that only about 3 or so of them will be Leafs for their career ...

Phaneuf, Gardiner, and Reilly will make up 3 of our six D. Add one of Percy / Blacker / Finn, and maybe a long shot like Granberg / Holzer in the bottom pairing. There will likely always be another vertern UFA / trade in there to add more experience.

I'm not saying that more won't become NHL'ers - but some will be traded at some point for help elsewhere as it's our position of strength.

Reilly is a pretty sure bet to be an impact NHL'er - likely top pairing guy
Percy / Blacker / Finn are all very likely to end up being solid 2nd pairing guys in the NHL. Holzer and Granberg have shown the potential to be bottom pairing guys. I like the long shot of Nilson - he reminds a bit of Danny Markov.

The fact remains though, that likely at least one or more won't hit their potential, but it's also as likely that one or more exceeds their potential.

The other thing to consider is that you still need some sandpaper there, and that's where a spot will likely get filled by a UFA / Vet.

In a few years, I can see:

Phaneuf Reilly
Gardiner Vet
Percy Granberg

With Blacker & Finn moved for help elsewhere.
I wouldn't underestimate Finn, he may be better than Percy when it is all said and done.

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08-31-2012, 12:02 PM
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Why would Holzer be considered a long shot? He was likely the top shut down defenceman in the AHL last season and that includes the veterans in the league.
Not to mention he has a one way NHL contract which already means he's made the NHL.

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08-31-2012, 12:13 PM
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Not to mention he has a one way NHL contract which already means he's made the NHL.
One way contract doesn't mean anything. Just that he gets paid the same in the NHL or AHL. He's not a lock to be on the team.

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08-31-2012, 12:15 PM
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One way contract doesn't mean anything. Just that he gets paid the same in the NHL or AHL. He's not a lock to be on the team.
It means he will probably be with the team and probably play in the NHL unless Carlyle wants to risk him getting claimed off waivers.

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