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Taylor vs Tyler

View Poll Results: Taylor Hall vs Tyler Seguin
Taylor Hall 153 44.74%
Tyler Seguin 189 55.26%
Voters: 342. You may not vote on this poll

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Old
09-01-2012, 01:28 PM
  #76
Sasso09
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I'm a huge fan of Seguins game.

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Old
09-01-2012, 02:28 PM
  #77
Wheatking
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjaustin77 View Post
I have already given you overall production and even strength numbers which Seguin was better over the whole season.
Here are my numbers to show how wrong you are about Seguin only being better offensively for 9 games.

1st 20 games Pts pace - Seguin 94 to 66
Last 20 games - Seguin - 70 to 62
Best 15 games - Seguin 109 to 98
Worst 9 games - Seguin 36 to 27
Remove Seguin's worst and Hall's best - Seguin 75 to 62
Seguin was ahead for the 1st 48 games so he was clearly better for that stretch.
You want to know why Hall caught up? Ice time and powerplay time. From your cherry picked hot stretch of Seguin until the game Hall went out Hall played almost 100 more minutes or 5.5 games of ice time. I think that might have helped out.

So the reality is that Seguin was better over the whole season (was the better average player)
He was better in the first 20 and the last 20.
He was better at his best.
He was better at his worst
He was better when you remove streaks in the opposite way that you want to do to show Hall was better.
He was better for the 1st 48 games or almost 60% of the season and again at the end. There were many other samples of games I can take that show Seguin was better as well.
He finished the season despite needing surgery on his hand.
He had more Games, Goals, Assists, Points, Production, +/-, Corsi, GVT, Point Shares, etc. and was better in all the samples and more above.

Cherry pick and think what you want but Seguin was better this year. Offensively, Defensively, Overall, Health. The whole year and many points in between.
You don't like my logic. That's fine. To me, it makes sense. IMO cherry picking would be a player playing at a 50 point pace for the first 60 games and then trying to convince people he was going to be a ppg player next season because he had 20 points in the final 20 games(see Bozak a couple years ago). I think you're right. 9 games is a small sample size. A very small sample size. So small that a player is capable of doing something that he might not repeat again. When something is clearly the exception, you treat it like it's the exception. Hot and cold streaks happen but it's hard to ignore one as dramatic as 10 goals in 9 games. If you're a 20 goal scorer for 70 games out of the season but there was that one 10 game stretch where you were scoring at a 95 goal pace, I'm going to assume that on the average night I'm getting the guy that was playing those other 70 games. I don't know. Maybe I am cherry picking. I'm cherry picking 90% of Seguin's season.

I used 9 games when finding Hall's best shot streak only because that's how long Seguin's lasted so I thought it would be fair...and it really wasn't. Taking 9 games of Hall's season is taking out 15% of his season. It would be 11% for Seguin. Even with a larger chunk coming out, it didn't change Hall's stats as much. Why? Again, because he was more consistent.

Was Seguin's highs and lows better than Hall's? Yes. At his peak, Seguin was playing at a Gretzky like pace. However, his peak lasted 9 games while Hall(though not at a Gretzky level) lasted about 45. Is it even considered a hot streak when you play at that level for over half a season(actually it was 75% of Hall's season)? I don't think it does.

...and Hall did match his best 9 game stretches(sticking with Seguin's number). You say he would have played at a 100 point pace if that was true. Well, it's not. Hall never really had any stretches where he played at a 100 point pace. He was just consistently at about a point per game. Maybe a point below or a point above here and there. Here is each players best 10 game stretches(since for some reason people find it a more eye friendly number)...and remember that by using five 10 game stretches, I'm using 50 of Hall's 61 games.

Taylor Hall
1. Nov 19 - Dec 26: 6 goals and 11 points
2. Jan 23 - Feb 17: 5 goals and 11 points
3. Dec 29 - Jan 21: 6 goals and 9 points
4. Feb 21 - Mar 8: 5 goals and 9 points
5. Oct 9 - Oct 30: 3 goals and 9 points


Tyler Seguin
1. Oct 20 - Nov 12: 10 goals and 15 points
2. Dec 17 - Jan 10: 4 goals and 12 points
3. Mar 1 - Mar 15: 5 goals and 10 points
4. Mar 22 - Apr 7: 3 goals and 7 points
5. Nov 19 - Dec 10: 2 goals and 6 points

Seguin had a really great stretch of 10 games plus 2 other very good games. I'll be honest though. I really had to search for those last two. Hall on the other hand. If you really look at the dates, I was pretty much able to use his entire season with the exception of that 9 game goalless drought. That's one of my biggest points. Hall is much more consistent. Take out one "hot streak" and he's got a few more that look just like it. They shouldn't even be considered hot streaks. Hall was just a player that produced at a 40-45 goal pace the entire season but had a bit of a slump for a couple weeks. Seguin had some stretches where he almost matched that one hot streak in points but he never came close to being that type of goal scorer...and I think we'd both agree that if everything is even, you take the goal scorer when comparing players head to head and not looking at team needs.

Adding up the ice time and saying Hall played 5.5 more games is a pretty weak argument. In real life, he played 1 or 2 more shifts a game. When in the game, that's almost nothing. It's not even close to the same as Seguin sitting while Hall actually plays an additional 5 more games to pad his stats.

As for the speculation. You call it speculation so it can be ignored. I call it common sense. I'm not saying anything is definite but if Hall was scoring at a 45 goal pace for 40+ straight games, the odds are good that he would have continued it through the final 15 games of the season. So when I say that getting injured PROBABLY hurt his ppg on the season...it's hardly a stretch.

Just because Hall spent more time with Eberle/RNH than anyone else, that doesn't mean it was the best fit. Like I said earlier, Hall was taken off that line because he was in that 9 game goalless drought. The first game he was taken off that line he scored a hat trick and RNH/Eberle combined for 9 points. So maybe RNH and Eberle were better offensive players than Bergeron and Marchand but what does it matter if no one is clicking? Both Hall and RNH played their best hockey when they were separated.

As for the systems. How is the Bruins system not better for putting up offense? Hall may have had more freedom to do what he wanted with the puck once it was on his stick but I can almost guarantee that the puck was on a Bruins' stick a lot more last season just because they were a team that was capable of gaining possession again. Like I said before. When Hall(or his linemates) made a mistake, it was going the other way and they would spend the rest of their shift trying to get it out of their zone. There was also a very good chance that it was ending up in the back of the net. Seguin played in a situation where he could make a mistake and he wouldn't get burned. The Bruins were capable of getting the puck back. Good defensive play leads to offensive chances. So do defensemen that can get the puck up ice quickly. Both Hall and Seguin are very fast players. Being able to take a pass at full speed in the neutral zone is a huge advantage for Seguin at even strength.

As for the hits, blocked shots and takeaways. Are these impressive numbers for Hall? Not really. I just brought them up because Bruins fans love to make Seguin out to be this defensive wizard(usually bringing up his +/-) while Hall wouldn't have the opportunity to put up the points he did because apparently he's such a one dimensional liability. All I wanted to point out was that he could have played on Bergeron's line. As for not bringing up the giveaways. That's because I was talking about defensive play. Contrary to popular belief, most giveaways don't happen when you're behind your own net and try to feed it through the slot...only to have Stamkos appear out of no where and intercept it. Most offensive players have a high number of giveaways. It's because the puck is on their stick a lot more. Hall is a player that carries the puck a lot. There are going to be giveaways in the offensive zone.

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Old
09-01-2012, 02:54 PM
  #78
Bonecrusher11
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I'll take the guy that scored more last year. For now anyway.

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Old
09-01-2012, 03:46 PM
  #79
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Tyler Seguin does not play centre for the Bruins...

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Old
09-01-2012, 05:01 PM
  #80
bostone737
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheatking View Post
I really don't see how I'm cherry picking stats.
Don't want to quote your whole post, but my god, that whole thing was basically one giant clusterfrack of cherry picking stats, all while ignoring minutes per game still and refusing to consider that season stats are tally of a full season. And have you noticed that with Halll, almost everything is 'on pace'? He really needs to stay healthy, just for your sake alone.

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Old
09-01-2012, 05:45 PM
  #81
Wheatking
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bostone737 View Post
Don't want to quote your whole post, but my god, that whole thing was basically one giant clusterfrack of cherry picking stats, all while ignoring minutes per game still and refusing to consider that season stats are tally of a full season. And have you noticed that with Halll, almost everything is 'on pace'? He really needs to stay healthy, just for your sake alone.
I've said like Seguin more if you want. Whether it be due to him being a natural center or that he's more durable. I don't have a problem with it. It's hard to believe since I can never resist this topic but I'm actually a huge Seguin fan. I watched him in junior because there was a real possibility he would be an Oiler...and even though I was on the Hall bandwagon, I spent a lot of time defending Seguin to Oilers fans that just didn't have their facts straight. I've even been accused of switching to the Hall bandwagon after he was drafted by the Oilers because I spent so much time praising him.

I'm not making an argument for Hall having more career points than Seguin or even more points next season. I'm not even saying that the day never come where Seguin is hands down a better player than Hall. I'm just saying that when both players were healthy last season, Hall was the better player.

I'm talking about one specific thing. I said that those 2-3 weeks in November were the only time that Seguin has clearly been better than Hall. Instead of putting down my argument...prove me wrong. There have been times when they've been pretty even but in general Hall has been the better and more consistent player. That 9 game stretch where he scored 10 goals was the only time you could ever say "Seguin AINEC".

...and I don't know how I've ignored minutes. I've said Hall played the equivalent of 1 or 2 more shifts a night. I've brought up linemates, systems, overall team and veteran presence. I've broken down their seasons to show consistency. I've brought up 5 on 5 and powerplay time and production. I've talked about hits, blocked shots, takeways and giveaways.

All I get back is "you're cherry picking, that's speculation and Hall played 80 seconds more a night". Prove me wrong. Why would you rather have Seguin over Hall on the average night and why does it outweigh what Hall brings? Specifically regarding offense.


Last edited by Wheatking: 09-01-2012 at 05:55 PM.
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Old
09-01-2012, 09:48 PM
  #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheatking View Post
Snip..I don't know. Maybe I am cherry picking. I'm cherry picking 90% of Seguin's season.

Yes it is cherry picking - at least you can admit that now. And you took out 1 players hot streak while taking out another's cold streak to fit your argument.
You are picking 9 games and deciding that was a peak. Why isn't it 4pts in 1 game? Why not 6 in 3 games? 9 in 4, 10 in 5, 20 in 15? Why are you picking by a streak instead of games. Why not just look at the 1st 9 or 10 games and so on? What was the context of those games? Opponents, goalies, linemates, ice time, powerplay time, zone starts, injuries, luck, etc?
You are also using points which isn't as good as production or situational production.
You are equating consistency with better player. Malkin had a larger variance in his 9 game stretches than Hall. Does that really make Hall more consistent? A better player? My answer is no. I'm not sure that I want to hear yours.


snip...and Hall did match his best 9 game stretches(sticking with Seguin's number). You say he would have played at a 100 point pace if that was true. Well, it's not. Hall never really had any stretches where he played at a 100 point pace.

Hall's best 9 games was 11 points. That is a 100 point pace. He did not score 100 points or at a 100 point pace so no he did not have 9 game stretches that were just as good.

Snip...

Adding up the ice time and saying Hall played 5.5 more games is a pretty weak argument. In real life, he played 1 or 2 more shifts a game. When in the game, that's almost nothing. It's not even close to the same as Seguin sitting while Hall actually plays an additional 5 more games to pad his stats.

No it isn't weak. That is reality. Over those games it equaled about 2:10 per game difference with more powerplay time. That is about 2.5 shifts per game. Whether it is longer shifts or more shifts, more ice time and powerplay time makes it more likely to put up points.

Snip...

They both had advantages and disadvantages from the teams they played on. It is speculation that I'm not willing to get into on what they could have done on the other team. I go by what actually happened. Yes I'm sure Hall could have played on the Bruins and done well and Seguin could have played on the Oilers and done well.
I evaluate everyone the same way in a fair manner without picking out players best or worst stretches. I look at basic, advanced and context stats. The numbers show that Seguin was better this year and the poll agrees with me.

I'm making no predictions about next year. I'm happy with Seguin and I would be happy with Hall.

If you had just said I think Hall is better I probably never would have said anything.
However you made some clearly wrong statements and cherry picked things to fit your argument. That just doesn't fly with me.
9 games was not the only time Seguin was better and Hall is not clearly significantly better as you stated. I would like to see you admit that you were wrong about that.

We can agree to disagree about the rest and revisit this next year without cherry picking things to make one player look bad.

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Old
09-01-2012, 10:22 PM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheatking View Post
Was Seguin's highs and lows better than Hall's? Yes. At his peak, Seguin was playing at a Gretzky like pace. However, his peak lasted 9 games while Hall(though not at a Gretzky level) lasted about 45. Is it even considered a hot streak when you play at that level for over half a season(actually it was 75% of Hall's season)? I don't think it does.
This is just another example of you twisting numbers to make them fit your view.

Seguin's "peak" was actually more like two months covering October and November. He was flat out dominant through that period. His hot streak started from the moment the puck dropped to kick off the 11/12 season and ended in late November/early December. It was certainly more than a little 9 game blip that you're making it out to be.

Aside from one 29 game period where Hall scored at a near 50 goal pace (unsustainable), he was an average player last season. Just 10 goals/22 points in the other 32 games played outside of that peak window. To put it into perspective, thats a 25 goal/56 point pace. Certainly not a player I would label consistent.

Oct 9 - Nov 17 (17 Games): 3 goals/11 points
Nov 19 - Feb 15 (29 Games): 17 goals/31 points
Feb 17 - Mar 16 (15 Games): 7 goals/11 points

See how easy it is to manipulate stats when all all you have in front of you is a game log and a clear cut agenda? As long as you're willing to look hard enough, you can make the numbers say whatever you want them to say. Marking IN's and OUT's on a players game log is not an accurate method to conclude when a player is hot, cold, good, bad, great, slumping etc.

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Old
09-01-2012, 10:24 PM
  #84
sjaustin77
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheatking View Post
I've said like Seguin more if you want. Whether it be due to him being a natural center or that he's more durable. I don't have a problem with it. It's hard to believe since I can never resist this topic but I'm actually a huge Seguin fan. I watched him in junior because there was a real possibility he would be an Oiler...and even though I was on the Hall bandwagon, I spent a lot of time defending Seguin to Oilers fans that just didn't have their facts straight. I've even been accused of switching to the Hall bandwagon after he was drafted by the Oilers because I spent so much time praising him.

I'm not making an argument for Hall having more career points than Seguin or even more points next season. I'm not even saying that the day never come where Seguin is hands down a better player than Hall. I'm just saying that when both players were healthy last season, Hall was the better player.

I'm talking about one specific thing. I said that those 2-3 weeks in November were the only time that Seguin has clearly been better than Hall. Instead of putting down my argument...prove me wrong. There have been times when they've been pretty even but in general Hall has been the better and more consistent player. That 9 game stretch where he scored 10 goals was the only time you could ever say "Seguin AINEC". I think I have proved you wrong over a bunch of samples and I've never said Seguin AINEC and never would based on a 9 game sample but I think Seguin was clearly the better player this year although it is close.

...and I don't know how I've ignored minutes. I've said Hall played the equivalent of 1 or 2 more shifts a night. I've brought up linemates, systems, overall team and veteran presence. I've broken down their seasons to show consistency. I've brought up 5 on 5 and powerplay time and production. I've talked about hits, blocked shots, takeways and giveaways.

All I get back is "you're cherry picking, that's speculation and Hall played 80 seconds more a night". Prove me wrong. Why would you rather have Seguin over Hall on the average night and why does it outweigh what Hall brings? Specifically regarding offense.
I addressed a lot of this in my last post but here is why I would take Seguin specifically regarding offense. Over the course of the season Seguin had better overall production. When you break it down Seguin was much better at even strength.

That is really the simple argument for Seguin being better. Almost 80% of ice time and goals are scored even strength. If you are using one Pts based number to compare how good players are, ES Pts/60 is probably the best. Yes it lacks other context stats but it is far better than Pts or PPG and even better than production which all also lack context. It eliminates ice time and situational differences and is a more fair comparison.

Overall production:
Seguin - 20:29
Hall - 20:58

ES Pts/60:
Seguin - 2.69
Hall - 2.07

I don't know if that proves you wrong. I think it does. If I have 2 close players I'm taking the ES player every time.

I think I have been more than fair with the comparison. I don't think Hall is injury prone and haven't used it against him. That is why I use production instead of Pts. I never brought up playoffs because Hall hasn't had the chance. And I don't want to see Oiler fans proclaiming Hall is better when he scores 20 pts in 15 games with 22 minutes ice time in his first playoffs when he is 23 or whenever compared to a 19 year old Seguin with 10 minutes ice time. For the record Seguin's 1st playoffs were better than anything either has put up in the regular season. His production was 19:39.

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Old
09-01-2012, 10:48 PM
  #85
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They're both good young guys who play different games.

Hall is perfect for the Oilers and Seguin is perfect for the Bruins.

Really, neither is better than the other but I voted Hall because I'd rather have him on my team because of his drive.

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Old
09-02-2012, 02:15 AM
  #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sjaustin77 View Post
I evaluate everyone the same way in a fair manner without picking out players best or worst stretches. I look at basic, advanced and context stats. The numbers show that Seguin was better this year and the poll agrees with me.

I'm making no predictions about next year. I'm happy with Seguin and I would be happy with Hall.

If you had just said I think Hall is better I probably never would have said anything.
However you made some clearly wrong statements and cherry picked things to fit your argument. That just doesn't fly with me.
9 games was not the only time Seguin was better and Hall is not clearly significantly better as you stated. I would like to see you admit that you were wrong about that.

We can agree to disagree about the rest and revisit this next year without cherry picking things to make one player look bad.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sjaustin77 View Post
I addressed a lot of this in my last post but here is why I would take Seguin specifically regarding offense. Over the course of the season Seguin had better overall production. When you break it down Seguin was much better at even strength.

That is really the simple argument for Seguin being better. Almost 80% of ice time and goals are scored even strength. If you are using one Pts based number to compare how good players are, ES Pts/60 is probably the best. Yes it lacks other context stats but it is far better than Pts or PPG and even better than production which all also lack context. It eliminates ice time and situational differences and is a more fair comparison.

Overall production:
Seguin - 20:29
Hall - 20:58

ES Pts/60:
Seguin - 2.69
Hall - 2.07

I don't know if that proves you wrong. I think it does. If I have 2 close players I'm taking the ES player every time.

I think I have been more than fair with the comparison. I don't think Hall is injury prone and haven't used it against him. That is why I use production instead of Pts. I never brought up playoffs because Hall hasn't had the chance. And I don't want to see Oiler fans proclaiming Hall is better when he scores 20 pts in 15 games with 22 minutes ice time in his first playoffs when he is 23 or whenever compared to a 19 year old Seguin with 10 minutes ice time. For the record Seguin's 1st playoffs were better than anything either has put up in the regular season. His production was 19:39.
We are going to have to agree to disagree. I have to say though...you haven't really addressed a whole lot. All you do is tell me I'm cherry picking stats. Then bring up how Hall has slightly more ice time and how Seguin produced at a slightly more efficient rate. You "snip" or just out right ignore my other points that go beyond the 9 game hot streak.

You say Seguin was by far the better 5 on 5 player. I bring up how it's a lot easier to be a good 5 on 5 player when you have a guys like Bergeron, Chara and just the entire Bruins team in general around you. Or a goalie like Thomas that can bail the team out. You didn't counter that point. You "snipped" it.

Or how about puck moving defensemen? Hall had a rookie in Petry and Whitney playing on one ankle(a shadow of his former self). Do you know how important making plays off the rush is for a player like Hall? Correy Potter lead the Oilers defense in PP ice time. He was our go to offensive defenseman. He had 21 points. Have you even heard of him? I won't use it against you. Sometimes even I forget he's an Oiler and that's not even a joke.

You told me Hall had better offensive line mates. I told you that while he spent a fair chunk of the season with Eberle and RNH, he actually did better without them and spent a large part of the season with Gagner and Hemsky. You said you know how to use behindthenet. I actually wasn't telling you anything that isn't common knowledge. Maybe you could have actually watched Hall last season. You wouldn't need the website.

It's also interesting that Seguin is a better 5 on 5 player than Hall because he had more points but for some reason you think he was at an advantage offensively playing with a rookie in RNH(for MAYBE 25 games) who actually put up 18 less even strength points than Bergeron at even strength. Maybe experienced linemates that bring a great overall game is an advantage? Especially 5 on 5?

You didn't even acknowledge that I said in general goal scorers are more highly regarded when all things are equal. Ignoring hot and cold streaks(since it's better to just ignore them). Seguin averaged 0.358 goals per game. Hall averaged 0.443(a 36 goal pace).

Or how about the systems? You said it's easier to put up points in the Oilers system. You never told me why...and don't make Julien out to be Lamaire just to prove a point. The Bruins were a defensively responsible team. They weren't a trapping team. Defense wins championships. It also leads to turnovers and offense.

You acknowledged that Hall was the better powerplay player but then suggested that it was only because Bruins PP was so bad...and that was everyone but Seguin's fault("The Bruins powerplay sucked but it was the rest of the B's players").

You say even strength production is better than powerplay production. I agree...but being a slightly better even strength player(even that is debatable) isn't better than being one of the best powerplay players in the entire league. Hall was 5th in powerplay goals while missing 21 games.

You said Seguin doesn't throw hits because his line always has the puck. Somehow Ovechkin found time to throw 215 hits last season. You're insulting everyone's intelligence with comments like that. I'll admit that Seguin has come a LONG way since his junior days but he's still very much a perimeter player. Hall very much isn't a perimeter player...and it's much easier to reign a guy in than teach a guy to be aggressive. One advantage to Hall's aggressiveness is that only 10 players that played 40+ games drew more penalties per game than him last season. Seguin ranked tied for 106th. He's a much harder player to play against. That shouldn't even be debatable.

...but everything I've tried to discuss doesn't matter because on top of this I have one other point about how I go about seeing who was the more consistent player. And even if you don't like how I've come to that conclusion, you've yet to prove to me that Seguin was actually the more consistent player. You brought up Malkin but I don't even know how to respond to that one. It made no sense. You actually think I'm saying that because Malkin would go up and down (probably between playing like a 90 point player and 150 point player) while Hall was pretty constant at about a ppg player the majority of the season that I think Hall is the better player? You really think that's what I'm saying? Are we having a discussion here or are we just going to try and pull out every trick to "win" this debate? I'm not getting sucked into a position to argue a point I don't agree with just because you're twisting my words around. You think Seguin was the more consistent threat? That's fine. I strongly disagree though. Feel free to prove it to me without a sarcastic response where you mock me and show how easy it is to manipulate numbers. If Seguin really was the more consistent player last season, show me.

...and please don't bring up the playoffs. Seguin's first playoffs was better than anything either of them have done because he had a point every 19:39? That alone just proves how much of a stretch you argument is. He was on the 4th line, playing against 4th line competition. He had 6 points in 2 games and then 1 point in the next 11 games. Nevermind how Hall fits into this. You think that was better than what Seguin did this season?

You're accusing me of cherry picking stats but all you've done is say that Seguin needs 29 less seconds to put up a point and that Hall averaging 36 more seconds on the powerplay was the end all, be all between the two. You're also cherry picking bits and pieces of my argument by "snipping" them.

I was going to point out everything that you chose to ignore but instead I'll just put it in bold. I'll apologize right now. It's going to make my long post even longer.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wheatking View Post
You don't like my logic. That's fine. To me, it makes sense. IMO cherry picking would be a player playing at a 50 point pace for the first 60 games and then trying to convince people he was going to be a ppg player next season because he had 20 points in the final 20 games(see Bozak a couple years ago). I think you're right. 9 games is a small sample size. A very small sample size. So small that a player is capable of doing something that he might not repeat again. When something is clearly the exception, you treat it like it's the exception. Hot and cold streaks happen but it's hard to ignore one as dramatic as 10 goals in 9 games. If you're a 20 goal scorer for 70 games out of the season but there was that one 10 game stretch where you were scoring at a 95 goal pace, I'm going to assume that on the average night I'm getting the guy that was playing those other 70 games. I don't know. Maybe I am cherry picking. I'm cherry picking 90% of Seguin's season.

I used 9 games when finding Hall's best shot streak only because that's how long Seguin's lasted so I thought it would be fair...and it really wasn't. Taking 9 games of Hall's season is taking out 15% of his season. It would be 11% for Seguin. Even with a larger chunk coming out, it didn't change Hall's stats as much. Why? Again, because he was more consistent.

Was Seguin's highs and lows better than Hall's? Yes. At his peak, Seguin was playing at a Gretzky like pace. However, his peak lasted 9 games while Hall(though not at a Gretzky level) lasted about 45. Is it even considered a hot streak when you play at that level for over half a season(actually it was 75% of Hall's season)? I don't think it does.


...and Hall did match his best 9 game stretches(sticking with Seguin's number). You say he would have played at a 100 point pace if that was true. Well, it's not. Hall never really had any stretches where he played at a 100 point pace. He was just consistently at about a point per game. Maybe a point below or a point above here and there. Here is each players best 10 game stretches(since for some reason people find it a more eye friendly number)...and remember that by using five 10 game stretches, I'm using 50 of Hall's 61 games.

Taylor Hall
1. Nov 19 - Dec 26: 6 goals and 11 points
2. Jan 23 - Feb 17: 5 goals and 11 points
3. Dec 29 - Jan 21: 6 goals and 9 points
4. Feb 21 - Mar 8: 5 goals and 9 points
5. Oct 9 - Oct 30: 3 goals and 9 points


Tyler Seguin
1. Oct 20 - Nov 12: 10 goals and 15 points
2. Dec 17 - Jan 10: 4 goals and 12 points
3. Mar 1 - Mar 15: 5 goals and 10 points
4. Mar 22 - Apr 7: 3 goals and 7 points
5. Nov 19 - Dec 10: 2 goals and 6 points

Seguin had a really great stretch of 10 games plus 2 other very good games. I'll be honest though. I really had to search for those last two. Hall on the other hand. If you really look at the dates, I was pretty much able to use his entire season with the exception of that 9 game goalless drought. That's one of my biggest points. Hall is much more consistent. Take out one "hot streak" and he's got a few more that look just like it. They shouldn't even be considered hot streaks. Hall was just a player that produced at a 40-45 goal pace the entire season but had a bit of a slump for a couple weeks. Seguin had some stretches where he almost matched that one hot streak in points but he never came close to being that type of goal scorer...and I think we'd both agree that if everything is even, you take the goal scorer when comparing players head to head and not looking at team needs.


Adding up the ice time and saying Hall played 5.5 more games is a pretty weak argument. In real life, he played 1 or 2 more shifts a game. When in the game, that's almost nothing. It's not even close to the same as Seguin sitting while Hall actually plays an additional 5 more games to pad his stats.

As for the speculation. You call it speculation so it can be ignored. I call it common sense. I'm not saying anything is definite but if Hall was scoring at a 45 goal pace for 40+ straight games, the odds are good that he would have continued it through the final 15 games of the season. So when I say that getting injured PROBABLY hurt his ppg on the season...it's hardly a stretch.

Just because Hall spent more time with Eberle/RNH than anyone else, that doesn't mean it was the best fit. Like I said earlier, Hall was taken off that line because he was in that 9 game goalless drought. The first game he was taken off that line he scored a hat trick and RNH/Eberle combined for 9 points. So maybe RNH and Eberle were better offensive players than Bergeron and Marchand but what does it matter if no one is clicking? Both Hall and RNH played their best hockey when they were separated.

As for the systems. How is the Bruins system not better for putting up offense? Hall may have had more freedom to do what he wanted with the puck once it was on his stick but I can almost guarantee that the puck was on a Bruins' stick a lot more last season just because they were a team that was capable of gaining possession again. Like I said before. When Hall(or his linemates) made a mistake, it was going the other way and they would spend the rest of their shift trying to get it out of their zone. There was also a very good chance that it was ending up in the back of the net. Seguin played in a situation where he could make a mistake and he wouldn't get burned. The Bruins were capable of getting the puck back. Good defensive play leads to offensive chances. So do defensemen that can get the puck up ice quickly. Both Hall and Seguin are very fast players. Being able to take a pass at full speed in the neutral zone is a huge advantage for Seguin at even strength.

As for the hits, blocked shots and takeaways. Are these impressive numbers for Hall? Not really. I just brought them up because Bruins fans love to make Seguin out to be this defensive wizard(usually bringing up his +/-) while Hall wouldn't have the opportunity to put up the points he did because apparently he's such a one dimensional liability. All I wanted to point out was that he could have played on Bergeron's line. As for not bringing up the giveaways. That's because I was talking about defensive play. Contrary to popular belief, most giveaways don't happen when you're behind your own net and try to feed it through the slot...only to have Stamkos appear out of no where and intercept it. Most offensive players have a high number of giveaways. It's because the puck is on their stick a lot more. Hall is a player that carries the puck a lot. There are going to be giveaways in the offensive zone.
...but I'm the only cherry picker in this discussion? You're chalking it up as speculation because you don't have anything to say. Just say I don't know if you don't. I'm not going to criticize you. We're talking about what happened last season. Not specifically about if the players switched teams. We're breaking down their situations and weighing the pros and cons.

Anyways. We can be done with this. I'm fine with agreeing to disagree. Feel free to comment on anything that I put in bold from my own post if you want.

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09-02-2012, 05:12 AM
  #87
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Hall was and is the right player for the Oilers, that's all that I care about. I knew that Boston would be getting a dandy player no matter who we picked, both teams won big that day.

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09-02-2012, 09:53 AM
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I've said like Seguin more if you want. Whether it be due to him being a natural center or that he's more durable. I don't have a problem with it. It's hard to believe since I can never resist this topic but I'm actually a huge Seguin fan. I watched him in junior because there was a real possibility he would be an Oiler...and even though I was on the Hall bandwagon, I spent a lot of time defending Seguin to Oilers fans that just didn't have their facts straight. I've even been accused of switching to the Hall bandwagon after he was drafted by the Oilers because I spent so much time praising him.

I'm not making an argument for Hall having more career points than Seguin or even more points next season. I'm not even saying that the day never come where Seguin is hands down a better player than Hall. I'm just saying that when both players were healthy last season, Hall was the better player.

I'm talking about one specific thing. I said that those 2-3 weeks in November were the only time that Seguin has clearly been better than Hall. Instead of putting down my argument...prove me wrong. There have been times when they've been pretty even but in general Hall has been the better and more consistent player. That 9 game stretch where he scored 10 goals was the only time you could ever say "Seguin AINEC".

...and I don't know how I've ignored minutes. I've said Hall played the equivalent of 1 or 2 more shifts a night. I've brought up linemates, systems, overall team and veteran presence. I've broken down their seasons to show consistency. I've brought up 5 on 5 and powerplay time and production. I've talked about hits, blocked shots, takeways and giveaways.

All I get back is "you're cherry picking, that's speculation and Hall played 80 seconds more a night". Prove me wrong. Why would you rather have Seguin over Hall on the average night and why does it outweigh what Hall brings? Specifically regarding offense.
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Originally Posted by bostone737 View Post
, all while ignoring minutes per game still and refusing to consider that season stats are tally of a full season. And have you noticed that with Halll, almost everything is 'on pace'? He really needs to stay healthy, just for your sake alone.
dude, you are still ignoring minutes per game by saying shifts per game, it's not the same thing. Also, still you rejecting that season stats are over a whole season, this on pace stuff is nothing but fantasy talk.

i'm glad you like Seguin, i appreciate Hall too, it's actually a very close call talent wise, but the nit picking of stats is a little much. I voted Seguin because Hall has missed like 40 games in his 1st 2 years. Simple as that

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09-02-2012, 11:26 AM
  #89
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dude, you are still ignoring minutes per game by saying shifts per game, it's not the same thing. Also, still you rejecting that season stats are over a whole season, this on pace stuff is nothing but fantasy talk.

i'm glad you like Seguin, i appreciate Hall too, it's actually a very close call talent wise, but the nit picking of stats is a little much. I voted Seguin because Hall has missed like 40 games in his 1st 2 years. Simple as that
There is a difference between disagree with something and just ignoring it. I've addressed the minutes per game. I think the importance that an extra 30-40 seconds a game at even strength and on the powerplay is being exaggerated. It really is just an extra shift on each. Does it equal more minutes at the end of the season? Yes...but it's not the same as Seguin being scratched and Hall getting to play an extra 5 games. I'm not saying that it isn't an advantage for Hall. Who knows. Maybe there were nights where that extra shift was the difference between getting a point and not but in general, it's not that big of a difference....and realistically, both players deserved more ice time last season. Hall was only averaging just over 18 minutes per night and 3 minutes on the powerplay. He was 5th in PP goals but 72nd in average ice time among forwards alone. It's not like he was getting close to 5 minutes like Kovalchuk was.

As for the stats being over a whole season. It's not that I'm rejecting it. I'm just trying to show why that 2-3 week people in November was the only time I would have taken Seguin over Hall. That 9 game stretch where he scored 10 goals was better than anything Hall did last season but before those 9 game(even if it was only a 6 game stretch) and after, I feel Hall was either equal or better to Seguin. Because I like Hall's game more, a value the better goal scorer in most cases and I'm obviously biased, when everything is equal(like in that small 6-8 game period before Seguin got hot), I'll take Hall.

As for why you took Seguin over Hall. I see nothing wrong with it. Personally, I'm still chalking up his injuries to just freak accidents at this point but I can recognize that in the end it's still wear and tear on the body and it can add up quickly.

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09-03-2012, 06:58 AM
  #90
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There is a difference between disagree with something and just ignoring it. I've addressed the minutes per game. I think the importance that an extra 30-40 seconds a game at even strength and on the powerplay is being exaggerated. It really is just an extra shift on each. Does it equal more minutes at the end of the season? Yes...but it's not the same as Seguin being scratched and Hall getting to play an extra 5 games. I'm not saying that it isn't an advantage for Hall. Who knows. Maybe there were nights where that extra shift was the difference between getting a point and not but in general, it's not that big of a difference....and realistically, both players deserved more ice time last season. Hall was only averaging just over 18 minutes per night and 3 minutes on the powerplay. He was 5th in PP goals but 72nd in average ice time among forwards alone. It's not like he was getting close to 5 minutes like Kovalchuk was.

As for the stats being over a whole season. It's not that I'm rejecting it. I'm just trying to show why that 2-3 week people in November was the only time I would have taken Seguin over Hall. That 9 game stretch where he scored 10 goals was better than anything Hall did last season but before those 9 game(even if it was only a 6 game stretch) and after, I feel Hall was either equal or better to Seguin. Because I like Hall's game more, a value the better goal scorer in most cases and I'm obviously biased, when everything is equal(like in that small 6-8 game period before Seguin got hot), I'll take Hall.

As for why you took Seguin over Hall. I see nothing wrong with it. Personally, I'm still chalking up his injuries to just freak accidents at this point but I can recognize that in the end it's still wear and tear on the body and it can add up quickly.
I don't understand why you bother posting the split stats just to be accused of twisting the numbers to fit your agenda. Hall played 20 less games than Seguin and only scored 2 less goals. (29-27 for Seguin) and had a higher points per game as well. Hall was better at producing goals and offense in general than Seguin. simple and to the point now try accusing me of twisting the stats.

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09-03-2012, 11:35 AM
  #91
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Surprised Seguin is winning by so much... may be the first time he actually wins a Taylor VS Tyler poll...as they are usually close but Hall generally wins.

Interesting.

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09-03-2012, 12:23 PM
  #92
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I don't understand why you bother posting the split stats just to be accused of twisting the numbers to fit your agenda. Hall played 20 less games than Seguin and only scored 2 less goals. (29-27 for Seguin) and had a higher points per game as well. Hall was better at producing goals and offense in general than Seguin. simple and to the point now try accusing me of twisting the stats.
I actually like this topic. Everyone gets sick of it but I don't....even after basically doing nothing but debate "Taylor vs Tyler" from January 2010 up until the draft(it's not like the Oilers actual games gave me a lot to talk about). I find looking up the stats fun and every time I have this conversation, I end up learning something new about each player. Even though I'm arguing in favor of Hall...it makes me appreciate both of them more.

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09-03-2012, 12:38 PM
  #93
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It's amazing that Seguin is winning despite losing in most statistical comparisons. I wonder what the poll results will be if Seguin actually wins on most stats...

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09-03-2012, 01:30 PM
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I go with the one who is in the making of a power forward.

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09-03-2012, 04:38 PM
  #95
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Yeah. Pretty much. Gagner didn't play very well for large stretches last season. Especially early. What's even funnier though is that EVERYONE can use this argument against Gagner but an Oilers fan can't use it against Seguin.

I'm not saying we should ignore Gagner's 8 point night or Seguin's 10 goals in 9 games. I'm saying the opposite. Recognize it. Ask how they were playing in all the other games. The reality is that in the other 72 games Seguin averaged out to be producing at a 22 goal/59 point pace. Sure there were highs and lows through out the season but nothing even remotely close to as dramatic as 10 goals in 9 games. Hall on the other hand one low point and then it was pretty much all highs. He was scoring at a 30 goal/80 pace, went on an 9 game goalless streak(and only 3 assists in that time)...and then spent the rest of the season scoring at a 45 goal/80 point pace.

Hall's goals per game average was 0.450 even with a stretch of 9 games where he didn't score.
Seguin's goals per game average was 0.358 with a stretch of 9 games where he had 10 goals.

Hall's points per game average was 0.883.
Seguin's points per game average was 0.827.

The stats say they were even but who would you really want on the average night? To me it's Hall.

..and someone always says it's easier to sustain high averages over a short period of time but in this case it actually hurts Hall. He had already been producing at a 45 goal pace for 40+ games and was in the middle of a 4 game goal scoring streak when his season ended. He wasn't slowing down. So if anything, getting injured just hurt his averages and they ended up not doing justice to the type of player he was for all last season(with the exception of 2-3 weeks back in November).
As I say to all Oilers fans, if you are going to adjust for GP then you'll need to adjust for TOI.

Seguin has a higher PP/20 minutes than Hall does, it is close though. And that does not even take into account the discrepancies in PP time which favors Hall.

So.. he was more productive with his ice time and given less PP opportunity.

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09-03-2012, 05:01 PM
  #96
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As I say to all Oilers fans, if you are going to adjust for GP then you'll need to adjust for TOI.

Seguin has a higher PP/20 minutes than Hall does, it is close though. And that does not even take into account the discrepancies in PP time which favors Hall.

So.. he was more productive with his ice time and given less PP opportunity.
I've gone through everything I can think of. I've talked about time on ice. My response is that you also can't just look at TOI. You have to look at not only line mates but the type of defensemen that are around them. I'm just repeating myself here but I don't think 30 more seconds a game at even strength and on the powerplay is that much. Sure it adds up but when you're in the game, it's almost nothing. I've also said that because of his team(specifically defensemen), Hall was at a disadvantage at 5 on 5 compared to Seguin. Hall and his teammates spent a lot of time in their own zone. I bet the Bruins' puck possession blew the Oilers out of the water. Not because their top offensive talent was better but because due to the system, the type of players and just more experience, they were able to get the puck back when a mistake was made. They didn't spend nearly as much time chasing the puck. Good defense leads to offensive chances. You could also make the argument that while Hall only averaged about 30 more seconds on the powerplay, he probably deserved a lot more than that. He was 5th in powerplay goals. Everyone ahead of him played about 15-20 more games than him...and when all things are even, I take the better goal scorer.

Hall played 186:46 on the powerplay. He had 13 goals and 21 points.
Seguin played 199:22 on the powerplay. He had 5 goals and 15 points.

So yeah. Hall averaged more ice time on the powerplay....but he deserved it.


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09-03-2012, 05:04 PM
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There is a difference between disagree with something and just ignoring it. I've addressed the minutes per game. I think the importance that an extra 30-40 seconds a game at even strength and on the powerplay is being exaggerated. It really is just an extra shift on each. Does it equal more minutes at the end of the season? Yes...but it's not the same as Seguin being scratched and Hall getting to play an extra 5 games. I'm not saying that it isn't an advantage for Hall. Who knows. Maybe there were nights where that extra shift was the difference between getting a point and not but in general, it's not that big of a difference....and realistically, both players deserved more ice time last season. Hall was only averaging just over 18 minutes per night and 3 minutes on the powerplay. He was 5th in PP goals but 72nd in average ice time among forwards alone. It's not like he was getting close to 5 minutes like Kovalchuk was.

As for the stats being over a whole season. It's not that I'm rejecting it. I'm just trying to show why that 2-3 week people in November was the only time I would have taken Seguin over Hall. That 9 game stretch where he scored 10 goals was better than anything Hall did last season but before those 9 game(even if it was only a 6 game stretch) and after, I feel Hall was either equal or better to Seguin. Because I like Hall's game more, a value the better goal scorer in most cases and I'm obviously biased, when everything is equal(like in that small 6-8 game period before Seguin got hot), I'll take Hall.

As for why you took Seguin over Hall. I see nothing wrong with it. Personally, I'm still chalking up his injuries to just freak accidents at this point but I can recognize that in the end it's still wear and tear on the body and it can add up quickly.
People have told you to address the difference in TOI multiple times and you still havent looked it up?

Hall had 77 additional seconds per game. That would sure as hell be a long "additional shift."

And obviously the extra time does make a difference in PPG if Seguin has higher overall production stats or PP/20 min but a lower PPG stat.

Edit: or do you mean an additional 30-40 seconds on both ES and PP totaling 60-80 extra seconds (it was 77).


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09-03-2012, 05:09 PM
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I've gone through everything I can think of. I've talked about time on ice. My response is that you also can't just look at TOI. You have to look at not only line mates but the type of defensemen that are around them. I'm just repeating myself here but I don't think 30 more seconds a game at even strength and on the powerplay is that much. Sure it adds up but when you're in the game, it's almost nothing. I've also said that because of his team(specifically defensemen), Hall was at a disadvantage at 5 on 5 compared to Seguin. Hall and his teammates spent a lot of time in their own zone. I bet the Bruins' puck possession blew the Oilers out of the water. Not because their top offensive talent was better but because due to the system, the type of players and just more experience, they were able to get the puck back when a mistake was made. They didn't spend nearly as much time chasing the puck. Good defense leads to offensive chances. You could also make the argument that while Hall only averaged about 30 more seconds on the powerplay, he probably deserved a lot more than that. He was 5th in powerplay goals. Everyone ahead of him played about 15-20 more games than him...and when all things are even, I take the better goal scorer.

Hall played 186:46 on the powerplay. He had 13 goals and 21 points.
Seguin played 199:22 on the powerplay. He had 5 goals and 15 points.

So yeah. Hall averaged more ice time on the powerplay....but he deserved it.
I would say Hall had an advantage. Higher O-zone start %, better offensive minded line mates (Eberle 76, RNH 52) (Bergy 64, Marchand 56), much better PP, more TOI, more PPTOI and more offense oriented system.

And yes, Hall played great on the PP. Cant take that away from him. It definitely helps his cause when he plays with RNH and the third best PP in the NHL. In comparison, the Bs PP was in the mid teens.

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09-03-2012, 05:10 PM
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People have told you to address the difference in TOI multiple times and you still havent looked it up?

Hall had 77 additional seconds per game. That would sure as hell be a long "additional shift."

And obviously the extra time does make a difference in PPG if Seguin has higher overall production stats or PP/20 min but a lower PPG stat.
I'm saying an additional 30-40 seconds at both 5 on 5 and on the powerplay. That equals 60-80 seconds per game. 77 seconds falls in there. Of course I've looked up their TOI. I just haven't memorized what it was so I ball park...I wasn't off.

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09-03-2012, 05:36 PM
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I would say Hall had an advantage. Higher O-zone start %, better offensive minded line mates (Eberle 76, RNH 52) (Bergy 64, Marchand 56), much better PP, more TOI, more PPTOI and more offense oriented system.
I've covered all this. Behindthenet may say that Eberle and RNH were his top linemates but it must have been just barely. He spent the first 17 games with them and then maybe the odd game here and there after. He had 3 goals in those 17 games and was finally taken off their line after a 9 game goal scoring drought. He didn't really click with RNH. The rest of the time he was all over the line up. He spent a lot of time with Gagner and Hemsky. Neither were great last season.

He did have higher offensive starts but that also goes back to looking at the linemates. RNH was 37.5% on the draw and Gagner was 47.6%. Would you start them in the defensive zone? Bergeron was at 59.3%. I'd rather win a draw in the defensive zone than lose the draw in the offensive zone.

It ties into my point about puck possession. When the Bruins didn't have the puck, they could get the puck. The same couldn't always be said for the Oilers. The Bruins weren't a trapping team. They were a defensively reliable team and there's a huge difference. Like I said before, defense leads to turn overs, which leads to puck possession, which leads to scoring chances, which leads to goals. The Bruins were the 2nd highest scoring team in the league last season. Who would you rather play with? An 18 year old producing at a 69 point pace(or 40 point in Gagner's case), that provides respectable defense for his age but can't win a faceoff or a 27 year old, 65 point player Selke winner that is one of the best faceoff men in the league? You're probably going to get better opportunities with Bergeron because you're going to have the puck more.

The Oilers did have the better powerplay but a lot of that had to do with Hall. He scored 26% of the team's powerplay goals. He was in on 42% of the goals. Seguin scored 12% of the team's PP goals and was in on 35%. That's not taking into account that he wasn't in the line up for some of those PP goals that the Oilers scored. So IMO, he deserved even more ice time on the PP than he was getting....and it's not like he was getting 5 minutes a game like Kovalchuk was.

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