Hopefully he'll find his confidence and make cleaner entries to the offensive zone/commit less turnovers. I'm not entirely sure these will directly lead to more offense yet but I expect a decent year developmentally. Considering I expect he'll mostly be on the third-line playing shutdown & PK minutes, I'd consider a good year as:
16G - 20A - 36P
Again, I'll be looking more at how he plays than his point totals. If he starts doing more of the little things right, the offense will come eventually. I still think he'll be a late bloomer.
15 g 21a 36p. I think he starts to put it together offensively but still has bouts of inconsistiency. Im looking at the year after next for him to emerge as a very effective 2way top 6 forward!
Burmistrov was better last season than the point totals suggest. Question is whether he gets the PP time he'd need to put up significant offensive numbers. If he does than:
Big question is where he gets his icetime and with whom? Not to mention how much icetime will he be getting? I don't see him getting a ton on the PP and it really depends on how much he gets put on the 3rd and 2nd line. The 3rd will mainly be looking to get harder defensive assignments, while the 2nd will probably get quite a lot of offensive zone starts. If he can steal the 2nd RW spot from Wellwood his points should improve.
I'm saying around 40 points for Burmi this season.
Sorry about this one being so late, school is back in session. I'm being forced to crunch more numbers elsewhere than here now...
I really can't say for certain how Burmistrov will do because it depends how fast (if he even does) he grab that remaining top 6 spot that seems to be up for grabs that could go to any of Wellwood, Antropov and Burmistrov. I have faith he will take it but I can see that spot being rotated not just when the individuals are doing bad/well but also when the team is doing bad/well.
Looking at last year Burmi looks like he made a pretty good step forward:
Name
POS
GP
TOI/60
CORSION
CORSIQoC
OZS
G/60
A1/60
A2/60
P/60
ABURMISTROV
C
76
13.20
07.24
-1.245
58.7
0.60
0.42
0.30
1.32
Most common line-mates (in order):
Kane (556:17), Wellwood (330:11), Antropov (226:43), Wheeler (167:22)
Most common D on ice with (in order):
Stuart (318:11), Bogosian (284:10), Byfuglien (266:16), Oduya (251:05)
As I stated above Burmistrov made some good improvements from the previous season:
Year
G/60
A1/60
P/60 (sansA2)
2011-12
0.60
0.42
1.02
2010-11
0.42
0.35
0.77
%change
42.9
20.0
32.5
Looking at Burmistrov if he was to develop at the same percentages or half there of he would end up:
Year
G/60
A1/60
P/60 (sans A2)
Same
0.86
0.50
1.35
Half
0.73
0.46
1.19
At same jump in progression he equals out to similar numbers as Little. At half the same jump in progression he similar to Wellwood/Antropov with less assists or a Cody Hodson.
Question remains... Who will get the last top 6 spot? I don`t see Wellwood or Antropov improving on last year numbers by any leeps or bounds, but Burmistrov most likely will.
Question remains... Who will get the last top 6 spot? I don`t see Wellwood or Antropov improving on last year numbers by any leeps or bounds, but Burmistrov most likely will.
The key difference in my view is that both Wellwood and Antropov protect the puck much better than does Burmistrov. Wellwood has a bit better wheels versus Antro, so the 2nd line spot is probably Wellwood's, at least to start the season.
The key difference in my view is that both Wellwood and Antropov protect the puck much better than does Burmistrov. Wellwood has a bit better wheels versus Antro, so the 2nd line spot is probably Wellwood's, at least to start the season.
I agree pretty much 100%.
Thing is with how Noel shelters the second line would it be better to have puck protection on the third shutdown line?
I think Wellwood is both stronger candidate (for the begining) and better fit since his line-mates will most likely be Joki and Kane (for the begining). I do however think Burmi will be a competent top6 player by the end of this coming season (whether that's through Jets or AHL/KHL via lockout)
I can see possibly being a avg-to-sub-avg 1st liner ceiling to top tier 2nd linethat can do PP and PK well floor. Very similar to how I currently view Little and potentially Scheifele as well... But Burmi has more time to improve that outcome than LIttle... And Scheif even more than Burmi
Similar to Plekanec - i.e. second-line two-way center maybe with a career year or two close to 70 pts, otherwise mid-50's - but more physical/agitating. He seems to care too much about the defensive side of the game and seems to lack some of the offensive awareness/vision (aside from his noted struggles with gaining the zone) to ever be more than a two-way center, although it is possible given his skill with the puck. He does however seem to like to get under the oppositions skin and I expect we'll see more of that as he feels more comfortable in the league. However, he seems averse to getting involved physically in offensive-generating ways, i.e. battling in front of the net.
Basically, it's too tough to call at this point. Offensively he looks like he has no confidence out there and he's totally lost. Other aspects of his game he looks very comfortable. He's an enigma. I think he'll be a slow developer though.
Similar to Plekanec - i.e. second-line two-way center maybe with a career year or two close to 70 pts, otherwise mid-50's - but more physical/agitating. He seems to care too much about the defensive side of the game and seems to lack some of the offensive awareness/vision (aside from his noted struggles with gaining the zone) to ever be more than a two-way center, although it is possible given his skill with the puck. He does however seem to like to get under the oppositions skin and I expect we'll see more of that as he feels more comfortable in the league. However, he seems averse to getting involved physically in offensive-generating ways, i.e. battling in front of the net.
Basically, it's too tough to call at this point. Offensively he looks like he has no confidence out there and he's totally lost. Other aspects of his game he looks very comfortable. He's an enigma. I think he'll be a slow developer though.
Re-signing Wellwood was a mistake imo. The guy has no future here and he's going to be taking valuable minutes away from Burmistrov plus Scheifele has almost no shot of making the team now.
The playoffs are still a long shot this season so why not let them get their feet wet now? Come year three the pressure will be on to make the next step .... and we're going to throw Scheifele out there as a rookie?
Re-signing Wellwood was a mistake imo. The guy has no future here and he's going to be taking valuable minutes away from Burmistrov plus Scheifele has almost no shot of making the team now.
The playoffs are still a long shot this season so why not let them get their feet wet now? Come year three the pressure will be on to make the next step .... and we're going to throw Scheifele out there as a rookie?
I could not disagree more.
For one thing, having Wellwood improves our team. If they want to put Burmistrov on the 2nd line, they'll put him on the 2nd line. Point being, Burmistrov needs to earn his way through the team now. Plus, this way if he wants to move up on the team, he'll have more incentive to work hard for it.
I also don't agree that the playoffs are a long shot. We have a legitimate chance at sneaking into the post-season.
Scheifele benefits more from dominating in the OHL than getting 30-40 points in the NHL. With or without Wellwood, he's gonna be treated the same.
. If they want to put Burmistrov on the 2nd line, they'll put him on the 2nd line. Point being, Burmistrov needs to earn his way through the team now. Plus, this way if he wants to move up on the team, he'll have more incentive to work hard for it.
I guess you have more faith in Noel to make those assessments than I do. Stapleton will never play in the NHL again and he was regularly awarded PP time last year over Burmi, even Kane in some games. Burmi was one of our best forwards to start last season, his play quickly trailed off after being demoted unexplicably. This team is lacking high end skill and will never be a major player in FA. We can't expect any future success if the young core talent doesn't maximize their potential/asset value and Burmistrov is one of those key pieces.
Last edited by A_wildstabatanything: 09-08-2012 at 07:25 PM.
I guess you have more faith in Noel than I do. Look at all the PP time Stapleton was rewarded with last year over guys like Burmi, even Kane some games.... and he'll never play in the NHL again.
in all fairness
neither one of them played like they deserved the pp for good portions of the season
Stapleton played the point because he could shoot the puck 95mph
I guess you have more faith in Noel to make those assessments than I do. Stapleton will never play in the NHL again and he was regularly awarded PP time last year over Burmi, even Kane in some games. Burmi was one of our best forwards to start last season, his play quickly trailed off after being demoted unexplicably. This team is lacking high end skill and will never be a major player in FA. We can't expect any future success if the young core talent doesn't maximize their potential/asset value and Burmistrov is one of those key pieces.
Yes, Burmistrov is the very key to future success! Without him, Scheifele, Bogosian, Kane, Wheeler, and Trouba will surely fail!
It's great if he succeeds, but he's gonna succeed or fail with or without Wellwood.
You earn your place in the NHL, you don't get it handed to you on a silver platter. We're not gonna let Wellwood, who just had a career year, walk. It makes our team worse.
