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David Desharnais next contract

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Old
09-04-2012, 11:57 AM
  #451
bsl
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterDecoy View Post

deadline. keep evaluating him until then.

yes it is. i suspect he is going to do what he has seemingly always done, add tools to his toolbox, take more chances as he gains experience. my suspicion is that we are going to see him shoot a lot more this year
I think the same thing. I think the guy is a smart player, and I think he knows that to stay on this team he needs to score more goals. I think the coaches will tell him the same.

Let's see what he does. This is the year for DD, the big one.

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09-04-2012, 02:17 PM
  #452
Talks to Goalposts
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Originally Posted by onemorecup View Post
good post but he has no hands and a weak shot

he is not a goal scorer , not a winger on the top 6
Wingers don't need to be goal scorers. Tanguay, Hemsky, Huselius, Parenteau etc. its less common than goal scoring wingers but its hardly unheard off. St. Louis is obviously the uber-model here.

Just like not all centers are playmakers. Guys like Jokinen or Stamkos are very shoot first.

Besides, his shot is decent enough he just largely declines to shoot

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Originally Posted by habitue View Post
This line just contredict what you are trying to express. NO, Desharnais is not a winger. Not fast and strong enough. He has the vision and passing skills of a real center, a position he had alwayds played. Just ask yourself WHY ALL his coaches never played him on the wing ? Just ask yourself how come all the wingers playing with him appreciate his play as a centerman ? No, he won't be the next St-Louis... But he will certainly be the FIRST Desharnais.
Until the NHL he's been the best or one of the best offensive players on his teams. Good forwards that can be centers tend to be centers.

Wingers on defense do most of their work interdicting passing lanes and attempting puck steals on moving pucks. Something a guy like Gionta excels at and Desharnais has the smarts and hands to do himself. Watch video of Desharnais on the penalty kill and you can see how well he does it.

Defense at center requires playing lower in the defensive zone, guarding the slot and attacking opposing forwards with possession. Stuff guys like Eller and Plekanec are far better equipped to do than Desharnais. He's not great and holding ground and denying territory but is good at disrupting what the opponent is attempting to do at the opportune moment.

I recall they actually did this a bunch last season with Cole playing the normal center role in the defensive zone and Desharnais playing his spot.

Passing and playmaking isn't a specific center skill, his line-mates can appreciate what he does in the offensive zone regardless of position. Its pretty common for guys that were centers at a lower level to become wingers in the NHL, because centers tend to be just plain better than wingers.

I wouldn't advocate transitioning him to wing if the team didn't end up having a surplus in the middle, but his game is the most translatable to the wing of the current 3 and we're looking at Galchenyuk as the future leader down the middle. I'd bet they'd be better off with Desharnais at center with a rookie Galchenyuk at LW for example. There's a decent chance roster changes end up making the point moot, but in a world where Galchenyuk is a top center and Plekanec and Eller are still on the team, Desharnais would be the guy I'd first look to shifting to the side. His game seems the most translatable. You lose more efficiency playing Plekanec or Eller on the wing as their strengths in all zones are center strengths, while Desharnais is only really good at doing center things in the offensive zone.

His speed also gets underrated here, probably because the Habs offensive forwards as a group have a lot of it. He isn't Cole but I don't think he's that far off Pacioretty in skating. At least as good as another small winger in Cammalleri.

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Old
09-09-2012, 12:02 AM
  #453
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Originally Posted by DAChampion View Post
To get the best estimate, you need to take the largest sample size available, not the smallest sample size available. Plekanec has been a full-time player since 2006-07, where he's played in a variety of situations. We have a very good sense of how good a player he is.

In statistics, the signal goes as the square root of the number of data points. Thus, six full seasons is about ~4.2 times more significant than one third of a season. When focusing on 25 games, you're reducing the statistical signal and precision in your assessment of Plekanec by a factor of ~4.2. It's less relevant and this should be common sense. A lot of players have hot streaks and cold streaks over 25 games, and it's not because their skill level goes up or down. It's just statistical fluctuations. There's a lot of luck over 25 games, ~4.2 times as much luck as there is over 6 full seasons.

We've seen Plekanec get a favorable year in 2007-08 like Desharnais had in 2011-2012, with favorable matchups and ozone starts and PP time. He repeated this two years later with Cammalleri and Kostitsyn.
We've seen Plekanec at his worst, in 2008-09, when he was making a lot of bad decisions, was demoted, and finished with 39 points.

There is some legitimate uncertainty with Desharnais because we only have 1.5 seasons of data. There are decent odds that he's actually much better than his 60 point pace, because 1.5 seasons is a small sample. You want to argue that, then that's fine. It's a legitimate argument to say DD will improve.

With Plekanec, however, we have six seasons of information. Offensively, we know that he can produce 70 points over a season when given good linemates, good zone starts, and good PP time. There's no debate about this.
This is a very good post. If I may say, DA, and I, have never said DD is a bad player, far from it. I love the guy, but we don't know enough yet.

Everyone take a chill pill. I hope to god Habs play this year, because this is a key year for DD. He needs to show intelligence and adjustment, and he needs to score more goals. He has to provide effective offense in all situations, and do this as a small player. I hope he does. I love the kid.

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Originally Posted by MasterDecoy View Post
all logical and reasonable assumptions. i'd like add a fourth option: offensive third line center a-la briere. provided galchenyuk replaces him, and eller replaces plekanec (in the future, not next season or the next)
Yes. I agree with this. DD at 3rd line C with good tough 15 goal wingers would be fantastic. Think Lambert Risebrough Tremblay. Fantastic line. Important, killing game winning goals all the time.

I think DD is better than Risebrough overall, not on D, but overall. The problem is we don't have 3rd line wings like Lambert and Tremblay.

That's where DD can help us win a cup. I have never said that DD could not be a great 3rd line C. I have said he should not be a no. 1 or 2 C for a cup contending team.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
Wingers don't need to be goal scorers.

I recall they actually did this a bunch last season with Cole playing the normal center role in the defensive zone and Desharnais playing his spot.
Good post.

As for the first quote in bold, sorry, wingers do need to be goal scorers on the Habs. Our centers do not score goals.

The second quote above is very interesting. I love the idea of DD at wing in the D zone, and at C in the O zone. Maybe this is old stuff, but it's a fascinating strategy. I really like this. It opens many possibilities.


Last edited by bsl: 09-09-2012 at 12:09 AM.
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Old
09-10-2012, 01:09 AM
  #454
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Originally Posted by bsl View Post
Good post.

As for the first quote in bold, sorry, wingers do need to be goal scorers on the Habs. Our centers do not score goals.

The second quote above is very interesting. I love the idea of DD at wing in the D zone, and at C in the O zone. Maybe this is old stuff, but it's a fascinating strategy. I really like this. It opens many possibilities.
There is a flaw in your logic, if Desharnais is moving to the wing in this scenario then its because Galchenyuk is surplanting him and Galchenyuk is a goal-scoring center. So balance is maintained, your just moving goal scoring to the middle and playmaking to the wing by the switch.

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09-10-2012, 02:15 AM
  #455
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Talks to Goalposts View Post
There is a flaw in your logic, if Desharnais is moving to the wing in this scenario then its because Galchenyuk is surplanting him and Galchenyuk is a goal-scoring center. So balance is maintained, your just moving goal scoring to the middle and playmaking to the wing by the switch.
That. Its not like we have too much playmaking from the wing, right now we have very few pure playmakers on the team outside DD. Even Plekanec I wouldn't qualify as such (and that might be why he played well with a playmaking forward like Kovalev).

Wingers :
Cole (good goalscoring (net crashing), little set up ability)
Gionta (good goalscoring (sniper), very little set up ability)
Pacioretty (good goalscoring (sniper/goal crashing), decent set up ability)
Bourque (underrated goalscoring if he remembers how he used to play. poor set up ability)
Armstrong (average goalscoring (reckless net crashing), bad set up ability)
White, Prust, Moen etc. (not much offense, terrible at set up)
*Leblanc (not in the NHL yet but we can assume average offense (decent set-up&goal scoring)).

Right now we have two 30g scoring wingers, two other wingers shortly removed from 25+ goal seasons and a bunch of 3rd/4th line net crashers with little offensive talent. It makes sense that having a playmaking center or two in a team like this should be an excellent thing, a guy like Desharnais is perfect to support them.

It was different back when we had guys like Kovalev, Tanguay or even Sergei Kostitsyn. Back then Desharnais would have been redundant, especially with Koivu also around. We used to have too much passing and not enough shooting and now its pretty much the opposite. It might explain in part the lack of structure on the powerplay (unsurprisingly our 3 most effective PP players last year were probably our 3 best playmakers (DD, Plekanec and Kaberle).

As for Galchenyuk - I hope he will be a good playmaker and a great goalscorer. He can become an elite player and elite players are usually able to excel in many aspects of the game. That he might be able to set up guys like a boss doesn't make Desharnais obselete anymore than him scoring 35g would make Pacioretty redundant. Galchenyuk might make Desharnais our second best playmaking forward, no shame in that. In today's league its possible to have 3 good centers, thats a pattern many of the best teams use.


Last edited by FlyingKostitsyn: 09-10-2012 at 02:25 AM.
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Old
11-04-2012, 05:54 PM
  #456
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I don't see the harm in locking up a young, homegrown asset to a reasonable deal. If he wants the moon, then sure trade him. But if DD is willing to sign at a reasonable price (around 3.75-4M (of course assuming the cap doesn't move too much)), lock him up. As was mentioned in the 2nd page of this thread, if we find in a couple years that Eller and Galchenyuk are panning out better than Desharnais, we can trade him at a later date. It doesn't make sense to ship him out now for Galchenyuk's sake, Gally won't be NHL ready this season, and he likely won't be top 6 ready the following season (or will be a downgrade from DD at that point).

DD is a better option to play center in the top 6 than Galchenyuk or Eller will be next season. That's pretty much indisputable barring a drastic improvement from Eller (I still believe in Eller long term though). I don't see why we should trade him now, it just doesn't make sense from any perspective that doesn't involve a blatant tank job.

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