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MLD 2012 Montagu Allan QF: Regina Pats vs. Brynäs IF

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Old
09-05-2012, 11:25 PM
  #1
seventieslord
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MLD 2012 Montagu Allan QF: Regina Pats vs. Brynäs IF

Moose Watson - Anze Kopitar - Johnny Gagnon
Miroslav Satan - Scott Gomez - Scott Mellanby (A)
Murph Chamberlain - Patrik Sundstrom - Bob MacMillan
Baldy Cotton - Art Jackson - Jim Peplinski (A)

Bryan McCabe - Paul Shmyr (C)
Gord Fraser - Drew Doughty
Barry Gibbs - Brent Seabrook

Tom Paton
Vladimir Myshkin

Coach: Emile Francis

Spares: Marty McSorley (D/RW) - Walter Smaill (D/F) - Bob Murdoch (D) - Ron Duguay (RW/C)

PP1: Watson - Kopitar - Gagnon - McCabe - Doughty
PP2: Satan - Gomez - MacMillan - Sundstrom - Fraser
PK1: Sundstrom - Chamberlain - Gibbs - Seabrook
PK2: MacMillan - Cotton - Shmyr - McCabe

VS

Coach: Tommy Sandlin
Captain: Sven Tumba
Ass. Captains: Ulf Dahlen and Rolle Stoltz

Uffe Sterner - Sven Tumba - Mikael Renberg
Jörgen Pettersson - Niklas Bäckström - Ulf Dahlen
P.J. Axelsson - Thomas Gradin - Niklas Sundström
Johan Franzén - Nisse Nilsson - Ronald Pettersson
Sune Almqvist, Willy Lindström

Lasse Björn - Rolle Stoltz
Kim Johnsson - Niklas Kronwall
Marcus Ragnarsson - Alexander Edler
Axel Nilsson, Tobias Enström

Pelle Lindbergh
Leif "Honken" Holmqvist

PP1

Sterner - Tumba - Renberg
Björn - Stoltz

PP2

Pettersson - Bäckström - Dahlen
Edler - Kronwall

PK1

Gradin - Sundström
Johnsson - Ragnarsson

PK2

Sterner - Axelsson
Stoltz - Björn

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09-06-2012, 09:45 PM
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TheDevilMadeMe
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Was I the only one who voted Tommy Sandlin the top coach in the draft? Emile Francis is definitely up there too. I expect these two teams to be well-prepared

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09-07-2012, 01:21 AM
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seventieslord
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Is Sandlin even better than Arne Stromberg, who has been mentioned in the past two years and likely won't even get selected in the AAA draft?

From 1961-1971, Stromberg was 57-23-5 (.700) internationally, with a gold, 5 silvers and 2 bronzes.

From 1979-1990, Sandlin was 30-17-11 (.612) with a gold, a silver, and 4 bronzes.

If I was selecting an international coach (and I have before) I would want to make sure he stands out among comparable guys, and I don't see what even makes him stand out against Stromberg.

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09-07-2012, 02:02 AM
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Is Sandlin even better than Arne Stromberg, who has been mentioned in the past two years and likely won't even get selected in the AAA draft?

From 1961-1971, Stromberg was 57-23-5 (.700) internationally, with a gold, 5 silvers and 2 bronzes.

From 1979-1990, Sandlin was 30-17-11 (.612) with a gold, a silver, and 4 bronzes.

If I was selecting an international coach (and I have before) I would want to make sure he stands out among comparable guys, and I don't see what even makes him stand out against Stromberg.
Because Strömberg were simply your average coach. He didn't really succeed with lesser talents and he wasn't that great at getting players to overperform.

Sandlin was a mastermind. Ask Börje Salming. He has 7 SEL titles and another final. He was famous for being able to get players to work together. He took a basketball system and incorporated it into hockey. Yes, his version of 1-3-1 was inspired by Ed Klimkowski.

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09-07-2012, 10:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jkrx View Post
Because Strömberg were simply your average coach. He didn't really succeed with lesser talents and he wasn't that great at getting players to overperform.

Sandlin was a mastermind. Ask Börje Salming. He has 7 SEL titles and another final. He was famous for being able to get players to work together. He took a basketball system and incorporated it into hockey. Yes, his version of 1-3-1 was inspired by Ed Klimkowski.
If we were to compare the rosters of Stromberg's teams and Sandlin's teams, would it be evident that one had a lesser group of players?

Is there a difference in international competition level? In both coaches' case, their team was considered behind Canada and Russia, and was fairly close to the Czechs for 3rd/4th, right?

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09-07-2012, 10:47 AM
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I give a lot of credit to coaches who were innovators, and Sandlin was definitely that. Sandlin was also a big part of Sweden's upset win at the 87 WCs, the first time a team other than the USSR or CSSR won the WCs in 25 years.

When Stromberg won Gold, the Eastern Block teams weren't effectively professional yet

And maybe someone should take a closer look at Stromberg.

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09-07-2012, 03:10 PM
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I give a lot of credit to coaches who were innovators, and Sandlin was definitely that. Sandlin was also a big part of Sweden's upset win at the 87 WCs, the first time a team other than the USSR or CSSR won the WCs in 25 years.

When Stromberg won Gold, the Eastern Block teams weren't effectively professional yet

And maybe someone should take a closer look at Stromberg.
Strömbergs flaws were just too much for Sweden. He were in constant conflict with everyone and not just players but management and so on. It wasn't even those kind of conflicts that can be good for the team (see Bowman) but petty things like haircuts etc. He wasn't a bad coach by any stretch but his teams won because he simply were smart enough to play his first line and pairing for 40 mins a game. Sweden won more because they had Sterner & Co not because Arne had the right strategies. A poor mans Crawford in a way if we are going to compare him to an NHL counterpart.

Sandlin were more of a players coach. He could come in to any lockerroom and start bonding with the players and get the players to bond with eachother.

His roster when Sweden won gold in 87 were

Tomas Sandström - B-Å Gustafsson - Håkan Loob
Håkan Södergren - Lars-Gunnar Pettersson - Anders Carlsson
Jonas Bergqvist - Thomas Rundqvist - Mikael Andersson
Thom Eklund - Matti Pauna - Peter Sundström
Lars Molin

Anders Eldebrink - Tommy Albelin
Mets Kihlström - Peter Andersson
Lars Karlsson/Nordmark - Tommy Samuelsson
Magnus Svensson

Pekka Lindmark

Loob, Gustafsson Sandström and Eldebrink were the stars. Anders "masken" Carlsson were a potent secondary scorer.

Defensive heroes were Lindmark, Albelin, Rundqvist, Södergren, Andersson and Bergqvist.

Compare that team tot he Soviets and the Americans and it was great accomplishment. Canada underperformed but they had a pretty good line-up too.

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09-09-2012, 01:55 AM
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Was I the only one who voted Tommy Sandlin the top coach in the draft?
I had him #1 too. Partially because he was simply a good coach in real life, but maybe more because in the imaginary MLD season it stands to reason that he would get the most out of his players.

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09-09-2012, 02:31 AM
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Coaching

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I had him #1 too. Partially because he was simply a good coach in real life, but maybe more because in the imaginary MLD season it stands to reason that he would get the most out of his players.
Tommy Sandlin is the best coach for Brynas IF but this does not make him the best coach in the MLD.

Johnny Gagnon was an excellent player for Cecil Hart coached teams but very ordinary under other coaches.

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09-09-2012, 07:52 AM
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Tommy Sandlin is the best coach for Brynas IF but this does not make him the best coach in the MLD.
I don't necessarily think anyone is "the best" coach in the MLD. Outside of really high-end coaches like Bowman, coaching quality is very largely a product of circumstance. The right mix of players, styles, personalities, opponents. I think Sandlin is a particularly good fit for Brynas.

Anyway, coaching aside I'm interested to know how that team is going to operate.

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09-09-2012, 08:41 AM
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Exactly

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Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
I don't necessarily think anyone is "the best" coach in the MLD. Outside of really high-end coaches like Bowman, coaching quality is very largely a product of circumstance. The right mix of players, styles, personalities, opponents. I think Sandlin is a particularly good fit for Brynas.

Anyway, coaching aside I'm interested to know how that team is going to operate.
Exactly. Even then a great coach learns what he cannot do and when he has to walk away.

Bowman after Buffalo realized that while he could contribute ideas to a GM, he was not a GM and adjusted accordingly. In Pittsburgh he realized that he could not change the Lemieux, Jagr, offense first culture and moved on. In Detroit he realized that he could change such cultures and stayed.

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09-09-2012, 12:25 PM
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Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
I don't necessarily think anyone is "the best" coach in the MLD. Outside of really high-end coaches like Bowman, coaching quality is very largely a product of circumstance. The right mix of players, styles, personalities, opponents. I think Sandlin is a particularly good fit for Brynas.

Anyway, coaching aside I'm interested to know how that team is going to operate.
Brynäs will operate as your typical Sandlin team.

1-3-1, very boring socialist hockey.

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09-10-2012, 12:33 PM
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Brynäs will operate as your typical Sandlin team.

1-3-1, very boring socialist hockey.
I've told some Tea Party activists about your team and they will be picketing the games.

"Get your government hands off our hockey!!!"

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09-10-2012, 01:40 PM
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I've told some Tea Party activists about your team and they will be picketing the games.

"Get your government hands off our hockey!!!"
Will Sarah Palin attend?

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09-10-2012, 01:45 PM
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Will Sarah Palin attend?
complete with momma grizzles and pit bulls.

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09-10-2012, 03:50 PM
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Not So

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Brynäs will operate as your typical Sandlin team.

1-3-1, very boring socialist hockey
.
Watched a number of games when Boucher was coaching Drummondville and Hamilton. The hockey was quite exciting especially if the offensive players are allowed some latitude.

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09-11-2012, 02:06 AM
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Watched a number of games when Boucher was coaching Drummondville and Hamilton. The hockey was quite exciting especially if the offensive players are allowed some latitude.
1-3-1 hockey can be exciting but it's usually when chasing a goal or two.

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09-12-2012, 11:45 AM
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Some thoughts on this series:

- Watson vs. Sterner as 1st line LWs. I’ve made the case for why I think Watson may have been as good as many of the better NHL forwards of his era, despite not playing in the NHL with them. What is the case for Sterner? How do we know for sure he was a 1st line caliber NHL forward?

- Although Renberg is a good glue guy, I’m not sure his NHL production, despite spending a lot of time playing with elite players, warrants a 1st line MLD spot. He lowers the offensive potential of a line that already has a couple question marks.

- 2nd line LWs: Jorgen Pettersson was a pretty decent player but he was scoring in the early 1980s what Miroslav Satan was scoring in the dead puck era. Satan led his team in scoring 7 times, a couple times by over 25 points ; Pettersson topped out at 3rd on his own team, 1 behind the leader. Adjusted points may favour DPE players but they say Satan had 8 seasons more impressive than Pettersson’s best. This one is not close; Satan is arguably the most potent 2nd line LW in the draft; pettersson is arguably the least.

- Patrik Sundstrom and Gradin are an interesting comparison. Equally offensively potent (look at their adjusted pts and games, almost identical), they were teammates for a few years. The difference as I see it, is that Sundstrom is a versatile and well-rounded player who can excel at the defensive game and hold his own physically. Gradin, I don’t know. I’ve never heard of him having a defensive reputation. His wingers indicate that this is indeed the purpose of the line, but what will Gradin do to further those purposes?

- Chamberlain versus Axelsson is an easy one. PJ was a quite limited player; a defensive specialist and not a great one, but a good one. I don’t think that there is any area in which one could say he is better than Chamberlain. He didn’t have the offensive upside, relatively speaking they are probably a wash defensively, and Chamberlain has a major physical and playoff edge.

- MacMillan, although well supported as a versatile player who was very strong all-around, probably isn’t as established as defensively as Niklas Sundstrom, who finished 6th and 14th in Selke voting, but he was a much better offensive producer and physical player, and should be the more effective overall presence on an MLD checking line. I will say that Sundstrom has been underrated in the past though.

- Peplinski and Franzen are more comparable as they are the physical beasts of the 4th lines. Believe it or not, their career averages for adjusted ESP/GP are the same, which makes Peplinski a much better producer because 1) he didn’t play with Datsyuk and Zetterberg or anyone similar, 2) adjusted points are biased against him and for Franzen, and 3) his record is based on 50% more games. Both are big, strong, hard to move guys, but Peplinski had no quit, and Franzen apparently has had lots of quit lately. Peplinksi can fight, take faceoffs and play other positions if needed. Franzen can’t. As much as Peplinski is the more attractive producer, he is, in particular, a much more attractive 4th liner.

- I can’t even begin to compare Cotton and Jackson to Nilsson and Pettersson. I figure anything I say would probably be called “NHL bias”. In the end I don't think it is useful to claim one's 4th line has a huge offensive edge, as they rarely do, regardless of the players. But I think Cotton and Peplinski have a 4th line skill set infinitely more established than those of their Brynas counterparts.

- I think the above is going to have to apply to McCabe/Shmyr versus Bjorn and Stoltz too. The whole “these two proved they could excel in north America and these two didn’t” thing is not a popular argument with my opponent. Should I just defer to all-star voting? McCabe and Shmyr were both top-4 MLD defensemen as voted by the GMs in this draft.

- In the case of 2nd pairings, it is Gord Fraser who is actually the tough one to compare. I think anyone would agree that Doughty has proven himself much more than Kronwall in their respective short careers. But has he proven more than Johnsson, who has been playing for over a decade in the NHL? Probably not, since Johnsson is a quite underrated all-around #1 defenseman. So, knowing how those three rank, where does Gord Fraser fit in? Based on his all-star peak of 1924-1927, he was approximately the 8th-best defenseman during this time. Extrapolating that out to modern times is tough but relatively speaking I think 8th back then should still translate to safely ahead of where Johnsson has “ranked” over this past decade, giving us the overall edge on 2nd pairings, even if it’s not a great one.

- Ragnarsson is another underrated player, but Gibbs holds the edge here too. Gibbs played a couple more seasons at a much higher TOI rate, produced better at ES, and anecdotally speaking, was definitely more physical and most likely better defensively. Both were negligible PP performers (played 30-ish% for bad PPs). Gibbs played much more on the PK, but Ragnarsson’s teams had better results. Ragnarsson was also only a #1 defenseman for his team twice. Todd Gill played more in 1997 (and he only played .4 minutes more than McSorley), Houlder, Bodger and Gill played more in 1998, and Houlder of all people again in 1999. In 2001 and 2002 though, to his credit, he led San Jose to two strong seasons. He is an underrated, above average 3rd pairing defenseman, but Gibbs is even better.

- Seabrook and Edler are easier to compare. Correct me if I’m wrong, but I only see one reason someone would prefer Edler over Seabrook and that’s the PP. In terms of experience, established track record, team success, playoff record, even strength offense, defense, physicality and durability, Seabrook checks all the boxes on this one.

- So unless the all-star voters were drastically wrong here and Bjorn/Stoltz is a MUCH better pairing than McCabe/Shmyr, Regina holds a significant edge at defense.

- Goaltending: Even if you assume the worst about Paton, I don’t see how one can conclude he wasn’t the best of his time. Lindbergh was an NHL starter for just one season. He won the Vezina, but the Flyers made every goalie from 1980 to 1990 look good, so judging him is really tough. Even if you assume the absolute best about him, his career was incredibly short for the era.

- God help Brynas if they have any injuries coming into this series. Almqvist and Nilsson are badly outmatched and would be incredible liabilities in any situation. Lindstrom can at least hold his own, but he’s not a bottom line player and if he fills in as a top-6 RW he could only replace most of the offense of Renberg or Dahlen, but none of their critical board work. He is not a very useful spare. Enstrom is ok though. On the other hand, Regina is covered for any situation. Murdoch can easily fill a defensive hole, being a reasonable fill-in for either Gibbs or Seabrook, and one of them can move up in the lineup, as they are more than good enough. If offense is needed, Smaill can come in, being a two time defensive scoring leader. McSorley can add toughness at wing or defense and has proven to be a functional enough player to not embarrass himself. Duguay has the skillset and upside to fill in at RW or C on the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th line, meaning we are truly covered at all positions and all situations should the injury bug bite.

This was an interesting concept and one that just about worked for you, jkrx. It certainly topped the last three theme teams and features some unappreciated picks who deserved the extra light shone on them. In the end, though, it is plagued by a few question marks that can’t be answered, and a couple of outright bad players. You’re also meeting a team that is too deep; you won’t find a crack here to exploit (a better team probably will, though)


Last edited by seventieslord: 09-12-2012 at 01:28 PM.
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09-12-2012, 12:06 PM
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- Peplinski and Franzen are more comparable as they are the physical beasts of the 4th lines. Believe it or not, their career averages for adjusted ESP/GP are the same, which makes Peplinski a much better producer because 1) he didn’t play with Datsyuk and Zetterberg or anyone similar, 2) adjusted points are biased against him and for Franzen, and 3) his record is based on 50% more games. Both are big, strong, hard to move guys, but Peplinski had no quit, and Franzen apparently has had lots of quit lately. Peplinksi can fight, take faceoffs and play other positions if needed. Franzen can’t. As much as Peplinski is the more attractive producer, he is, in particular, a much more attractive 4th liner.
Peplinski's estimated linemates (by players with whom he most frequently shared a point on an even strength goal).

1980-81 Willi Plett Eric Vail
1981-82 Jamie Hislop Lanny McDonald
1982-83 Lanny McDonald Kevin LaVallee
1983-84 Kent Nilsson Steve Tambellini
1984-85 Kent Nilsson Steve Tambellini
1985-86 Joel Otto Joe Mullen
1986-87 Joel Otto Joe Mullen

Although his totals were usually relatively low, meaning that these were his most common linemates but not his linemates all or even most of the time, necessarily.

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09-12-2012, 12:37 PM
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seventieslord
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Peplinski's estimated linemates (by players with whom he most frequently shared a point on an even strength goal).

1980-81 Willi Plett Eric Vail
1981-82 Jamie Hislop Lanny McDonald
1982-83 Lanny McDonald Kevin LaVallee
1983-84 Kent Nilsson Steve Tambellini
1984-85 Kent Nilsson Steve Tambellini
1985-86 Joel Otto Joe Mullen
1986-87 Joel Otto Joe Mullen

Although his totals were usually relatively low, meaning that these were his most common linemates but not his linemates all or even most of the time, necessarily.
You must be somewhat surprised that after you made a good case for Peplinski and then got to the ATD finals with him as a regular, he still fell all the way to me here.

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09-12-2012, 01:02 PM
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A couple of disagreements stick out when i read 70s comparisons

•Unless I'm missing something about Chamberlain, I think Axelsson's defense is better established. Chamberlain is definitely better overall though
•Gibbs is better overall than Magnusson (look, I praised Gibbs!), but Magnusson was a defensive specialist, so can you really say Gibbs was better strictly defensively?
•Franzen was clearly not drafted for what he did in the regular season. Of course, how much you want to assume he raises his game here is an open question.

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09-12-2012, 01:24 PM
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seventieslord
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A couple of disagreements stick out when i read 70s comparisons

•Unless I'm missing something about Chamberlain, I think Axelsson's defense is better established. Chamberlain is definitely better overall though
I know that subjectively comparing two players defensively from this far apart can be guesswork. In the end, Chamberlain's role on what was called the NHL's best checking line did it for me. Axelsson, right or wrong, was a bit more of a "face in the crowd".

Quote:
•Gibbs is better overall than Magnusson (look, I praised Gibbs!), but Magnusson was a defensive specialist, so can you really say Gibbs was better strictly defensively?
You're coming around!

I admit, it took me about 20 seconds to realize you meant Ragnarsson... I was like, "what does Magnuson have to do with this??"

I think that yes, you can say that Gibbs was better strictly defensively. If you look at the defensive "heights" he reached (anchoring top-5 defense corps for 3.5 years, getting all-star votes, making an all-star game, being consistently referred to as team's best defenseman, etc) I think he puts himself ahead in that area.

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•Franzen was clearly not drafted for what he did in the regular season. Of course, how much you want to assume he raises his game here is an open question.
Granted.

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09-12-2012, 01:30 PM
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Oops, yeah Ragnarsson ( who I think has been historically underrated here)

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09-12-2012, 01:36 PM
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seventieslord
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with a bit of luck and/or better timing of picks, jkrx could have ended up with Patrik Sundstrom, Kenny Jonsson, Anders Eldebrink, Loui Eriksson, and Cully Dahlquist. the latter in particular would have saved him from selecting a poor spare forward. Ulf Nilsson would have been nice too, but I don't think he'd have had the room for him. There were enough Swedish players here to make a great team but getting them all is the trick.

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09-12-2012, 02:24 PM
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You must be somewhat surprised that after you made a good case for Peplinski and then got to the ATD finals with him as a regular, he still fell all the way to me here.
Eh, he was a fourth liner in a 40 team draft. He profiles as a fourth liner at this level too, so I'm not too surprised. Judgements vary and all that.

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