Statistics for defensive performance

[DL44]

Originally Posted by seventieslord

Your guess is as good as mine. you started with something, I made what appeared to be improvements, but until I see the results I don't even know if they really are. In any case it's probably just subjective weighting of objective numbers. The heavy stats guys tend to have ways to logically lay out how different factors should be weighted.

I think we have enough info to choose and weigh the stats for the formula now..

You risk losing the objective component if the result doesn't match your subjective opinion and then you wanna go back and revise the formula till the players you desire are high enough... kinda defeats the purpose of the objective formula...

And also would be never ending in terms of formula modifications..

[seventieslord]

Originally Posted by DL44

I think we have enough info to choose and weigh the stats for the formula now..

You risk losing the objective component if the result doesn't match your subjective opinion and then you wanna go back and revise the formula till the players you desire are high enough... kinda defeats the purpose of the objective formula...

And also would be never ending in terms of formula modifications..

I realize that sounds like a problem, but it's also a bit of a "tip of the hat" to the “watch them play” crowd, finding a middle ground.

[rockinghorse]

Originally Posted by DL44

Like i said in my edit, when i get a chance, i'll redo the spreadsheet with last yr's numbers...
SO i'll redo the formula with what people think should be appropriate...


In terms of what i did for rankings.. for each category the players were ranked 1 thru - 173. It was thos rankings i used in the formula... not the actual raw numbers.

I'm looking forward to the new 2011/12 rankings. Thanks for doing this.

[Micklebot]

Originally Posted by seventieslord

also, I see that zone finishes minus zone starts is a factor. I think this is a mistake. If players like Matt Carle and Visnovsky are getting a defensive zone start, it won't be against the best players. therefore, they will defend the zone, and advance the puck for the next faceoff. Doesn't prove they're that good defensively. I would use raw zone starts. I know that doesn't say what happened on that shift, BUT the fact that their coach is using them in that situation on a regular basis says much more, IMO.

Raw zone starts would be a mistake as it doesn't take into account that not all teams have the same distribution (some teams start more often in the offensive zone than others). You would have to use zone starts relative to the teams zone starts in order to find out how thier coach is using them.

[seventieslord]

Originally Posted by Micklebot

Raw zone starts would be a mistake as it doesn't take into account that not all teams have the same distribution (some teams start more often in the offensive zone than others). You would have to use zone starts relative to the teams zone starts in order to find out how thier coach is using them.

yes, absolutely true.

[vanuck]

Is it possible to find head-to-head Corsi for opposing forward lines when they're both on the ice, adjusted for zone starts etc.? Would it be a credible method of determining/measuring how good one is against the other defensively? (i.e through possession)

Is there a large enough sample of data available to do this? Maybe then this could be compared against other lines to see how they did against the same trio of players.

Perhaps this could be changed to measure a line vs. a specific D-pair too.