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Guys who succeeded who were not supposed to

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Old
09-05-2012, 04:00 PM
  #51
redbull
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
with Brett Hull it was his attitude as well. I remember reading an aticle a few years ago written by a former scout who talked about how some players did themselves noe favours in interviews leading up to the draft year and made an observation that for his interview for Hall they thought he had just come from the bar or something like and acted like he didn't care
that's interesting. And I believe it to be true, BHull has such a laid back attitude that he probably comes across as a player you can't win with, who doesn't compete hard.

I'd say it's probably true for the bulk of his career. But it's tough to say since he did have so much on-ice success, on various teams. I thought in Dallas he became a much more dedicated player, same for DET, albeit with much less offensive ability by then.

But boy, could he outright score. Wow.

Closest pure scoring ability to Mike Bossy that I've ever seen.

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Old
09-05-2012, 05:04 PM
  #52
seventieslord
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Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
for me it as after the top 100
i guess it depends what you mean by "overwhelmingly high".

using the 1979-2000 drafts, here are the probabilities of becoming a full-time NHL player for at least a few years:

picks 1-60: 658/1320 = 49.8%
picks 61-100: 214/880 = 24.3%
picks 101-the end: 380/3247 = 11.7%

so, the first two rounds are 50/50 for getting a full-time NHLer (obviously better higher) and the sub-100th picks are a total crapshoot. The 3rd round-ish picks are a grey area.

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09-06-2012, 06:53 PM
  #53
LeBlondeDemon10
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I think you could throw Gretzky into this mix. Many predicted he was too small and slight for the NHL. I don't know off hand how many professional scouts were known to have said this, but many members of the media were guilty of underestimating 99.

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Old
09-06-2012, 07:58 PM
  #54
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Bourque didnt really enter the nhl with the type of hype that orr, potvin, lindros or crosby got. He could be added to this list.

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Old
09-06-2012, 08:06 PM
  #55
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Henrik Lundqvist

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Old
09-06-2012, 08:34 PM
  #56
Longtin l10l
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I remember watching TSN's list of all late drafted players that became superstars in the show, very interesting seeing that 1st round picks doesnt always mean you got the best players

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Old
09-07-2012, 09:57 PM
  #57
Nalyd Psycho
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
i guess it depends what you mean by "overwhelmingly high".

using the 1979-2000 drafts, here are the probabilities of becoming a full-time NHL player for at least a few years:

picks 1-60: 658/1320 = 49.8%
picks 61-100: 214/880 = 24.3%
picks 101-the end: 380/3247 = 11.7%

so, the first two rounds are 50/50 for getting a full-time NHLer (obviously better higher) and the sub-100th picks are a total crapshoot. The 3rd round-ish picks are a grey area.
Honestly, 10% doesn't seem that bad to me...

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Old
09-10-2012, 09:58 AM
  #58
seventieslord
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nalyd Psycho View Post
Honestly, 10% doesn't seem that bad to me...
keep in mind that is based on about 18% for round 3 and only about 7-8% for the rounds below that.

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