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Bruins Re-sign Tyler Seguin: 6 Years at 5.75

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Old
09-11-2012, 07:54 PM
  #176
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I take back my original position is earlier posts of this nature, the deals handed out to seguin, hall, eberle etc are great deals and will only show that more with time.

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Old
09-11-2012, 08:14 PM
  #177
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We're better off looking at Points Per 60 Minutes, as opposed to Points Per Game.


2010-2011 Even Strength

Tyler Seguin - 19 ES Points in 800.5 Minutes of ES TOI = 1.42 P / 60 Min ES TOI
Taylor Hall - 31 ES Points in 1,004 Minutes of ES TOI = 1.85 P / 60 Min ES TOI

2010-2011 Power Play

Tyler Seguin - 3 PP Points in 100.5 Minutes of PP TOI = 1.79 P / 60 Min PP TOI
Taylor Hall - 11 PP Points in 177.5 Minutes of PP TOI = 3.72 P / 60 Min PP TOI

That gives Taylor Hall 2.13 P / 60 Min and Tyler Seguin 1.47 P / 60 Min for 2010-2011.

2011-2012 Even Strength

Tyler Seguin - 52 ES Points in 1170.5 Minutes of ES TOI = 2.67 P / 60 Min ES TOI
Taylor Hall - 32 ES Points in 922 Minutes of ES TOI = 2.08 P / 60 Min ES TOI

2011-2012 Power Play

Tyler Seguin - 15 PP Points in 199 Minutes of PP TOI = 4.52 P / 60 Min PP TOI
Taylor Hall - 21 PP Points in 187 Minutes of PP TOI = 6.74 P / 60 Min PP TOI

That gives Taylor Hall 2.87 P / 60 Min and Tyler Seguin 2.94 P / 60 Min for 2011-2012.


Obviously both players got better from Year 1 to Year 2. Seguin significantly so, but that'd be obvious considering how he was used his rookie year.

Hall's a Power Play MONSTER, though Seguin is no slouch either. Seguin gets just 2:27 of PP TOI/G, while Hall gets 3:03. That difference in ice time wasn't as significant as I thought. Does bear to mention that Edmonton's PP was significantly better (20.6% to 17.2%) than Boston's. But a big part of that is definitely Hall. The guy is unreal. But would he be as good in Boston's system, whose PP is...well....average at best?

Seguin is a better Even Strength player than Hall is. At least based off of last year. Stats don't lie.


Now people can debate all they want about which lines Seguin and Hall are facing, etc etc. Hall's on Edmonton's #1 line, so in theory he should face the opposition's shutdown line. Seguin's also on Boston's top line (arguably), so the same should hold true to him.

But people also forget that Seguin's line is also Boston's shutdown line, and his two way responsibility arguably affects his scoring ability. Though because he's going up against other team's scoring lines, it may be easier for him to score...etc etc etc.


Point is both players are very, very good and both contracts are very, very good. PPG doesn't begin to tell the whole story.

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Old
09-11-2012, 08:21 PM
  #178
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Honestly, I don't see how this is a bargain...

Sure, he is 20 years old... and he has the potential to be a regular 80 point player... but he has only had one good season playing on a stacked Boston team... and certainly didn't shine in the playoffs.

Even Daigle put up good numbers in his first year in the league.

Too much is unknown to commit 30+ million dollars on a 20 year old IMO.

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Old
09-11-2012, 08:21 PM
  #179
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoBruins231 View Post
We're better off looking at Points Per 60 Minutes, as opposed to Points Per Game.


2010-2011 Even Strength

Tyler Seguin - 19 ES Points in 800.5 Minutes of ES TOI = 1.42 P / 60 Min ES TOI
Taylor Hall - 31 ES Points in 1,004 Minutes of ES TOI = 1.85 P / 60 Min ES TOI

2010-2011 Power Play

Tyler Seguin - 3 PP Points in 100.5 Minutes of PP TOI = 1.79 P / 60 Min PP TOI
Taylor Hall - 11 PP Points in 177.5 Minutes of PP TOI = 3.72 P / 60 Min PP TOI

That gives Taylor Hall 2.13 P / 60 Min and Tyler Seguin 1.47 P / 60 Min for 2010-2011.

2011-2012 Even Strength

Tyler Seguin - 52 ES Points in 1170.5 Minutes of ES TOI = 2.67 P / 60 Min ES TOI
Taylor Hall - 32 ES Points in 922 Minutes of ES TOI = 2.08 P / 60 Min ES TOI

2011-2012 Power Play

Tyler Seguin - 15 PP Points in 199 Minutes of PP TOI = 4.52 P / 60 Min PP TOI
Taylor Hall - 21 PP Points in 187 Minutes of PP TOI = 6.74 P / 60 Min PP TOI

That gives Taylor Hall 2.87 P / 60 Min and Tyler Seguin 2.94 P / 60 Min for 2011-2012.


Obviously both players got better from Year 1 to Year 2. Seguin significantly so, but that'd be obvious considering how he was used his rookie year.

Hall's a Power Play MONSTER, though Seguin is no slouch either. Seguin gets just 2:27 of PP TOI/G, while Hall gets 3:03. That difference in ice time wasn't as significant as I thought. Does bear to mention that Edmonton's PP was significantly better (20.6% to 17.2%) than Boston's. But a big part of that is definitely Hall. The guy is unreal. But would he be as good in Boston's system, whose PP is...well....average at best?

Seguin is a better Even Strength player than Hall is. At least based off of last year. Stats don't lie.


Now people can debate all they want about which lines Seguin and Hall are facing, etc etc. Hall's on Edmonton's #1 line, so in theory he should face the opposition's shutdown line. Seguin's also on Boston's top line (arguably), so the same should hold true to him.

But people also forget that Seguin's line is also Boston's shutdown line, and his two way responsibility arguably affects his scoring ability. Though because he's going up against other team's scoring lines, it may be easier for him to score...etc etc etc.


Point is both players are very, very good and both contracts are very, very good. PPG doesn't begin to tell the whole story.


No need to debate it. Seguin played "softer" minutes than Hall last season, but outplayed them by a significant margin. Hall saw tougher competition and still won, but not as easily. Hall also had better linemates, although it's worth mentioning that quality of linemates are derived here by team, so his linemates were "better" in a 29th-place-kind-of-way. They are both gifted offensively, and they both move the play in favor of their teams when they're on the ice.

And Landeskog destroyed them both, but **** that guy.


Last edited by syz: 09-11-2012 at 08:39 PM.
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Old
09-11-2012, 08:23 PM
  #180
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post

More fortune telling. When you throw away real data in favor of personal opinion and beliefs you suffer from confirmation bias. I'm not making any prediction whatsoever when it comes to Skinner. I'm using hard data and that data paints a pretty obvious picture to me. Skinner shouldn't even be in the same conversation as Hall or Seguin at this point. Until he can prove he is able to produce at their paces its a nonstarter. It's looking like out of those three, Skinner is the one who has the bad contract.
Out of those 3 can you tell me who has the 30 goal season so far?

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09-11-2012, 08:24 PM
  #181
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great deal for seguin

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Old
09-11-2012, 08:30 PM
  #182
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post
I pointed out the trend. It's history. It's a fact. The numbers are real.

You pointed out a trend consisting of two points, and have the audacity to call it a fact? I already showed you earlier why this is completely worthless!

If you take a trend that only have two points, than you can make a downward slope out of anything. You can make an upward slope out of anything.

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Old
09-11-2012, 08:34 PM
  #183
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Originally Posted by Crustacean View Post
Honestly, I don't see how this is a bargain...

Sure, he is 20 years old... and he has the potential to be a regular 80 point player... but he has only had one good season playing on a stacked Boston team... and certainly didn't shine in the playoffs.

Even Daigle put up good numbers in his first year in the league.

Too much is unknown to commit 30+ million dollars on a 20 year old IMO.
Only time will tell if it is a bargain, but this contract is pretty much in line with all the other contracts signed this offseason for players of Seguin's ilk. Of course there is risk in any contract, but it's not as if any of these 6-year (7 for Hall) made you go WTF? considering the salary landscape.

Tavares pretty much set the precedent last year and he broke out so his contract looks like a great deal. All of the players that have received these long term contracts are all very highly regarded and are pretty much expected to do the same. I'll reserve judgement until there is a larger sample size, but all of these signings make sense to me.

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Old
09-11-2012, 08:50 PM
  #184
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Originally Posted by Blueline Bomber View Post


Do I really need to point out where you predicted Skinner's demise because of this "downward trend"?





Did you forget what started this whole debate?

Hall - .75 PPG, 18 minutes a game (average)
Skinner -.73 PPG, 17 minutes a game (average)
Seguin - .55 PPG, 14 minutes a game (average)

I don't know about you, but to me (and to any other logical person), that's pretty damn similar. To use a favorite of yours - "These are facts. It's in the history books".
It's starting to look like you are having a hard time grasping the concept of a trend. A trend does not indicate anything for the future, but rather used as a jumping off point to make more accurate predictions of future performance. Skinner is trending downward. I'm not sure how you can even refute that.

Also, where's the predictions? I've used real numbers. You've skewed numbers by averaging both seasons. Do you know how fuzzy this math is? Look at Seguin. Look at his .55 PPG. Do you think that does Seguin justice? Does a .55 PPG justify the contract that he received?

Of course not, because it's inaccurate, as is your argument.

Skinner doesn't belong in this thread. His lackluster performance last year puts him well below either Seguin or Hall.

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09-11-2012, 08:55 PM
  #185
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For the record, talking about a "trend" over two data points is not just wrong, but really, really dumb too.

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Old
09-11-2012, 08:56 PM
  #186
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sky04 View Post
Out of those 3 can you tell me who has the 30 goal season so far?
Out of those 3 can you tell me which one managed more than 20 goals last season?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Plan The Parade View Post
You pointed out a trend consisting of two points, and have the audacity to call it a fact? I already showed you earlier why this is completely worthless!

If you take a trend that only have two points, than you can make a downward slope out of anything. You can make an upward slope out of anything.


The trend is directly correlated to their raw numbers! It's a FACT.

And please, please please show me how I can turn Skinner's 2 season PPG statistics as an upward slope. Because I really don't see how going from .77 to .69 ppg can be construed as anything but downward. But if you can convince me that .69 is somehow a larger more significant number than .77 in the context we're talking about by all means, have at 'er.

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Old
09-11-2012, 09:00 PM
  #187
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So the bridge must've burned because there was no bridge contract The deal itself IMO is a good one as was the Skinner, Hall, and Eberle deals. If your team has a young star that wants to stay with your club this is the cost of business.

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Old
09-11-2012, 09:07 PM
  #188
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post
It's starting to look like you are having a hard time grasping the concept of a trend. A trend does not indicate anything for the future, but rather used as a jumping off point to make more accurate predictions of future performance. Skinner is trending downward. I'm not sure how you can even refute that.

Also, where's the predictions? I've used real numbers. You've skewed numbers by averaging both seasons. Do you know how fuzzy this math is? Look at Seguin. Look at his .55 PPG. Do you think that does Seguin justice? Does a .55 PPG justify the contract that he received?

Of course not, because it's inaccurate, as is your argument.

Skinner doesn't belong in this thread. His lackluster performance last year puts him well below either Seguin or Hall.
are you just trolling or do you really not grasp how to apply statistics and terms like trend at all? Blueline Bomber and I probably disagree more than we agree, and actually think that Hall will be a superior player to Skinner long term, but the basis of your argument is so flawed that it borders on ridiculous. Using 2 season (1 in which Skinner suffered a concussion) as your datapoint is just plain flawed.

Here's an example. Evgeni Malkin.

2009: 113 points
2010: 77 points
2011: 37 points

OMG...Malkin is on a downward trend. Facts are facts, the data doesn't lie! This is a jumping off point for to make more accurate predictions of future performance.

2012: 109 points.

D'oh.

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Old
09-11-2012, 09:11 PM
  #189
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post
It's starting to look like you are having a hard time grasping the concept of a trend. A trend does not indicate anything for the future, but rather used as a jumping off point to make more accurate predictions of future performance. Skinner is trending downward. I'm not sure how you can even refute that.
It's starting to look like you have no idea what you're even arguing. You have stated that Skinner's trending downward and that "it does not favor Skinner going forward". And you're trying to claim that you're not making a prediction? ********, sir.

Quote:
Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post
I've used real numbers.
Oh, that's where the problem is. I've been using the fake ones.

Quote:
Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post
You've skewed numbers by averaging both seasons. Do you know how fuzzy this math is? Look at Seguin. Look at his .55 PPG. Do you think that does Seguin justice? Does a .55 PPG justify the contract that he received?
Yeah, I think it does do Seguin justice, because that's .55 PPG at 14 minutes a night on average. When compared to the other two players, if Seguin was getting 18 minutes a night like Hall, he'd likely be near that .75 PPG.

Quote:
Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post
Skinner doesn't belong in this thread. His lackluster performance last year puts him well below either Seguin or Hall.
So let me get this straight: Skinner putting up 44 points in 64 games means he doesn't deserve to be in the same conversation as Seguin or Hall. But Hall putting up 42 points in 65 games is OK? And you claim I'M changing facts to fit my argument? What a riot.

Quote:
Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post
Out of those 3 can you tell me which one managed more than 20 goals last season?
And which one has yet to hit 60 points in a season?

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Old
09-11-2012, 09:12 PM
  #190
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GoBruins231 View Post
Seguin is a better Even Strength player than Hall is. At least based off of last year. Stats don't lie.


Now people can debate all they want about which lines Seguin and Hall are facing, etc etc. Hall's on Edmonton's #1 line, so in theory he should face the opposition's shutdown line. Seguin's also on Boston's top line (arguably), so the same should hold true to him.

But people also forget that Seguin's line is also Boston's shutdown line, and his two way responsibility arguably affects his scoring ability. Though because he's going up against other team's scoring lines, it may be easier for him to score...etc etc etc.


Point is both players are very, very good and both contracts are very, very good. PPG doesn't begin to tell the whole story.
Just to add to that story (nice breakdown): Hall plays with worse linemates than Seguin. Only an idiot would currently take RNH, Horcoff, Eberle, and Hemsky over Bergeron and Marchand at even strength. Bergeron is, in my opinion, the best two-way centre in the league, and top 10 overall. Marchand isn't quite as skilled, but he's an excellent supporting two-way winger. He might not score as much as a lot of guys, but when he's on your line the puck is going to be in your offensive zone a lot more often, which opens up scoring opportunities.

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Old
09-11-2012, 09:20 PM
  #191
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crustacean View Post
Honestly, I don't see how this is a bargain...

Sure, he is 20 years old... and he has the potential to be a regular 80 point player... but he has only had one good season playing on a stacked Boston team... and certainly didn't shine in the playoffs.

Even Daigle put up good numbers in his first year in the league.

Too much is unknown to commit 30+ million dollars on a 20 year old IMO.
Best offensive player on said stacked team as a 19 year old.

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Old
09-11-2012, 09:27 PM
  #192
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God I hate the Bruins. Good deal though

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09-11-2012, 09:38 PM
  #193
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Originally Posted by Boom Boom Anton View Post
are you just trolling or do you really not grasp how to apply statistics and terms like trend at all? Blueline Bomber and I probably disagree more than we agree, and actually think that Hall will be a superior player to Skinner long term, but the basis of your argument is so flawed that it borders on ridiculous. Using 2 season (1 in which Skinner suffered a concussion) as your datapoint is just plain flawed.

Here's an example. Evgeni Malkin.

2009: 113 points
2010: 77 points
2011: 37 points

OMG...Malkin is on a downward trend. Facts are facts, the data doesn't lie! This is a jumping off point for to make more accurate predictions of future performance.

2012: 109 points.

D'oh.
We're comparing PPG here, so your example is nothing more then a silly strawman.

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09-11-2012, 09:38 PM
  #194
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Getzlaf and Perry did it. It's not something new.
Well um not for that length did they?

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09-11-2012, 09:40 PM
  #195
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Well um not for that length did they?
IIRC their deals were 5 year deals.

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09-11-2012, 09:45 PM
  #196
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blueline Bomber View Post
It's starting to look like you have no idea what you're even arguing. You have stated that Skinner's trending downward and that "it does not favor Skinner going forward". And you're trying to claim that you're not making a prediction? ********, sir.
There's no prediction there. Show me!

Quote:
Oh, that's where the problem is. I've been using the fake ones.
No, you've been using fuzzy ones.

Quote:
Yeah, I think it does do Seguin justice, because that's .55 PPG at 14 minutes a night on average. When compared to the other two players, if Seguin was getting 18 minutes a night like Hall, he'd likely be near that .75 PPG.
More guessing and baseless opinion? Averaging two seasons is nothing more that blurring lines to slant the numbers. Look at each individual season on their on merit. You don't need to average two seasons together. It's not like we're comparing a large amount of numbers where averaging would be useful here.

If you have such a problem with me claiming a trend using 2 seasons then you should discard your own cooked stats as well.

Quote:
So let me get this straight: Skinner putting up 44 points in 64 games means he doesn't deserve to be in the same conversation as Seguin or Hall. But Hall putting up 42 points in 65 games is OK? And you claim I'M changing facts to fit my argument? What a riot.
We're talking about points per game here, a stat that is much more accurate in determining the quality of a player. Stop changing the goal posts just to make your point more valid. You can't escape the numbers!

0.69 will always be significantly lower than 0.87. So much so that in my eyes discredits him from even being in this discussion. Still haven't seen you tackle that one yet.

Quote:
And which one has yet to hit 60 points in a season?
Oh yeah? Which one has yet to hit 70 points?

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09-11-2012, 09:53 PM
  #197
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Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post
We're comparing PPG here, so your example is nothing more then a silly strawman.
08-09: .89 PPG
09-10: .95 PPG

Spezza must be trending upward. Therefore, the 10-11 season will be higher...

10-11: .91 PPG

Well, ****. In that case, he's trending downward, and his 11-12 season will be lower...

11-12: 1.05 PPG

Son of a...

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09-11-2012, 10:07 PM
  #198
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Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post
There's no prediction there. Show me!
I just quoted you, word for word, on your prediction. Are you serious?

Quote:
Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post
More guessing and baseless opinion? Averaging two seasons is nothing more that blurring lines to slant the numbers. Look at each individual season on their on merit. You don't need to average two seasons together. It's not like we're comparing a large amount of numbers where averaging would be useful here.

If you have such a problem with me claiming a trend using 2 seasons then you should discard your own cooked stats as well.
Yeah, I do need to average the two seasons together when I'm talking about their career PPG. Hence, I took the two years of their career. You're completely ignoring the first season of each player's career, basing your entire argument on their second one. The below is exactly what I'm talking about:

Quote:
Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post
We're talking about points per game here, a stat that is much more accurate in determining the quality of a player. Stop changing the goal posts just to make your point more valid. You can't escape the numbers!
OK then, we'll talk PPG:

Skinner had 44 points in 64 games - .69 PPG
Hall had 42 points in 65 games - .65 PPG

So tell me again why Skinner's season means "he doesn't deserve to be in the argument" with Hall and Seguin, but Hall's season is fine and dandy?

Quote:
Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post
0.69 will always be significantly lower than 0.87. So much so that in my eyes discredits him from even being in this discussion. Still haven't seen you tackle that one yet.
And if your argument was that Hall produced more than Skinner last year, there'd be no debate. We're talking about their respective careers. So tell me why Hall's .75 at 18 minutes a night is SO much better than Skinner's .73 at 17 minutes a night?

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09-11-2012, 10:54 PM
  #199
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blueline Bomber View Post
08-09: .89 PPG
09-10: .95 PPG

Spezza must be trending upward. Therefore, the 10-11 season will be higher...

10-11: .91 PPG

Well, ****. In that case, he's trending downward, and his 11-12 season will be lower...

11-12: 1.05 PPG

Son of a...
Ah! But you forgot context, The whole point of Skinner's trend.

Spezza
08-09: .89 PPG
09-10: .95 PPG

Comparing these two seasons it is apparent that Spezza is trending upwards. Can we make a logical conclusion from this? Nothing other than it looks good for next season and perhaps if you were bold, the season after that.

08-09: .89 PPG
09-10: .95 PPG
10-11: .91 PPG

Comparing these seasons, it would appear that Spezza is not showing a trend and is merely maintaining. One more season like this and we could confidently say that he has plateaued (I argued this point in another thread about Gagner vs Henrique).

08-09: .89 PPG
09-10: .95 PPG
10-11: .91 PPG
11-12: 1.05 PPG

Now those 4 seasons combined, we can confidently say that Spezza has trended upwards. If I was unaware of a glass ceiling for PPG I could say he could very well hit 1.08-1.09 ppg next year. Looking from where he started to where he ends shows a complete picture with some context in the middle (A story, if you will). Whatever factors were in play in regards to Spezza's season doesn't matter in this context. Injury, slump, etc.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Blueline Bomber View Post
I just quoted you, word for word, on your prediction. Are you serious?
Listen, there was no prediction made. We are looking at the trend developing with Skinner and making logical conclusions based on that. His trend suggests he will either maintain his 11-12 numbers or regress more. There is no way you can look at that logically and conclude he is going to suddenly spike. This isn't roulette we're playing. Could he improve? Certainly. He could very well beat out both Hall and Seguin next year. Then we could bring him back into the discussion. If Hall falls to sub .66 ppg numbers then he belongs nowhere in the conversation with players above .80.

Quote:
Yeah, I do need to average the two seasons together when I'm talking about their career PPG. Hence, I took the two years of their career. You're completely ignoring the first season of each player's career, basing your entire argument on their second one. The below is exactly what I'm talking about:


OK then, we'll talk PPG:

Skinner had 44 points in 64 games - .69 PPG
Hall had 42 points in 65 games - .65 PPG

So tell me again why Skinner's season means "he doesn't deserve to be in the argument" with Hall and Seguin, but Hall's season is fine and dandy?
You realize you compared two completely different seasons for Hall and Skinner, right? That you are just further bending the rules and making crap up as you go? The only stats that matter right now are the ones that the players have recently put up. I don't care about the 10-11 season points no more than I care about Jagr's 1994-95 season points. The only way I give a crap is if we're using it as complimentary data in a preliminary look at the trends that are forming.

Quote:
And if your argument was that Hall produced more than Skinner last year, there'd be no debate. We're talking about their respective careers. So tell me why Hall's .75 at 18 minutes a night is SO much better than Skinner's .73 at 17 minutes a night?
There you go again, averaging where there is no need to average.

Hall's 0.87 is a metric ton better and a world of difference separates him from Skinner at 0.69. Hall is trending upwards over the last 2 seasons while Skinner is trending downwards.

You know, if you compare the (11-12) ppg gap between Seguin, Hall and Skinner it is apparent that Skinner looks to be the worst of the 3 contracts. Hall and Seguin are almost identical in terms of ratio of ppg (Using last season only, as the agents would use) to dollar amount. Combined with the incredibly bad luck Skinner suffered last year he is the odd man out and has been eliminated from any 3-way debate between Skinner/Hall/Seguin. Bam!

It is also unreal how close Hall and Seguin really are in point production. Next season should be great to see how both players respectively grow. But Skinner has to jump back on the horse if he wants in on this action.


Last edited by smackdaddy: 09-11-2012 at 11:00 PM.
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09-11-2012, 10:54 PM
  #200
vespa99
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I think Hall and Seguin will both be studs. Skinner will be more like their little brother with glasses.

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