HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > General Hockey Discussion > Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk
Mobile Hockey's Future Become a Sponsor Site Rules Support Forum vBookie Page 2
Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk Trade rumors, transactions, and free agent talk. Rumors must contain the word RUMOR in post title. Proposals must contain the word PROPOSAL in post title.

Bruins Re-sign Tyler Seguin: 6 Years at 5.75

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
09-12-2012, 12:07 AM
  #201
Finlandia WOAT
Do U Like Quebec?
 
Finlandia WOAT's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Raleigh NC
Country: United States
Posts: 9,687
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post

The trend is directly correlated to their raw numbers! It's a FACT.


And please, please please show me how I can turn Skinner's 2 season PPG statistics as an upward slope. Because I really don't see how going from .77 to .69 ppg can be construed as anything but downward. But if you can convince me that .69 is somehow a larger more significant number than .77 in the context we're talking about by all means, have at 'er.
The point was not that your numbers were wrong.

The point was that they were based on two pieces of data that resulted in a -.8PPG for Skinner last season. Which isn't enough data to form an idea of what a future trend will be.

And the point is that, if I make a trend (read: a prediction of what will happen in the future) based on 1 piece of data (the -.8 PPG that Skinner incurred from his freshman to sophomore season), then it is a worthless trend. We don't know whether either year was an outlier statistically for Skinner (and you know very well which year I think that was).

If you want to say, "Hey guys, I found a pattern here", then come back with more data to prove it(and if there isn't "more data", then don't post).


Last edited by Finlandia WOAT: 09-12-2012 at 12:17 AM.
Finlandia WOAT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 12:10 AM
  #202
SmellOfVictory
Registered User
 
SmellOfVictory's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 5,350
vCash: 50
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blueline Bomber View Post
And if your argument was that Hall produced more than Skinner last year, there'd be no debate. We're talking about their respective careers. So tell me why Hall's .75 at 18 minutes a night is SO much better than Skinner's .73 at 17 minutes a night?
Hall did it against better players and let less shots come back his way (yes, his +/- is worse, but he's playing in front of Rehabbybulin and Dubnyk. Ward's not the best goaltender in the NHL, but he's a damn sight better than those two).

SmellOfVictory is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 12:11 AM
  #203
SDig14
Registered User
 
SDig14's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Edmonton, AB
Country: Canada
Posts: 7,641
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryanbryoil View Post
So the bridge must've burned because there was no bridge contract The deal itself IMO is a good one as was the Skinner, Hall, and Eberle deals. If your team has a young star that wants to stay with your club this is the cost of business.
Ha, no kidding, that bridge contract was pretty impressive, and the master GM Chiarelli sold him on the team concept and he took a discount too!

On a serious note, it's a good deal for Seguin and the Bruins. Not that they had an alternative, but getting him locked up for another 7 years from now is great for them.

SDig14 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 12:23 AM
  #204
Sky04
Registered User
 
Sky04's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 8,196
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blueline Bomber View Post
I just quoted you, word for word, on your prediction. Are you serious?



Yeah, I do need to average the two seasons together when I'm talking about their career PPG. Hence, I took the two years of their career. You're completely ignoring the first season of each player's career, basing your entire argument on their second one. The below is exactly what I'm talking about:
Don't bother, he needs to add "trend", "prediction" and "outliers" to his vocabulary before you can get through to him. In other words, take an entry level stats class before you go off spouting statisical nonsense.

Sky04 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 12:30 AM
  #205
JackJ
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2012
Posts: 4,544
vCash: 500
Fair compared to other deals.

JackJ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 01:06 AM
  #206
Blueline Bomber
Expectations - high
 
Blueline Bomber's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 23,404
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by sky04 View Post
Don't bother, he needs to add "trend", "prediction" and "outliers" to his vocabulary before you can get through to him. In other words, take an entry level stats class before you go off spouting statisical nonsense.
Yeah, I never let an argument go past a day if I can help it. And since there's clearly no getting through to him (to the point where he can't even see the very basics of the argument), there's no point.

Blueline Bomber is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 01:57 AM
  #207
danishh
Dat Stache
 
danishh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: mtl/ott/somewhere
Country: Canada
Posts: 29,710
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rpro View Post
Hall gave up an extra year of UFA.
and got paid 7.5M for that year?



i reiterate, well done chia.

danishh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 02:02 AM
  #208
SDig14
Registered User
 
SDig14's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Edmonton, AB
Country: Canada
Posts: 7,641
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by danishh View Post
and got paid 7.5M for that year?



i reiterate, well done chia.
You might want to recheck your math on that Hall deal.

SDig14 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 02:02 AM
  #209
danishh
Dat Stache
 
danishh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: mtl/ott/somewhere
Country: Canada
Posts: 29,710
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
So the oilers sign Hall for 7 years with a cap hit of 6.5 and they get roasted. Bruins signed Seguin for 6 years at 5.75 and it is a steal of a deal

someone needs to explain to me the difference
one team locked in young players who won the cup. The other team locked in players who finished last or second last in the league.
that's the difference.

questions?

danishh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 02:04 AM
  #210
danishh
Dat Stache
 
danishh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: mtl/ott/somewhere
Country: Canada
Posts: 29,710
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDig14 View Post
You might want to recheck your math on that Hall deal.
tyler seguin 34.5M 6 years
taylor hall 42M 7 years
__________________________
7.5M 1yr



what did bill clinton call it again?

danishh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 02:06 AM
  #211
smackdaddy
Hall-RNH-Eberle
 
smackdaddy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: B.C.
Country: Canada
Posts: 8,983
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by danishh View Post
one team locked in young players who won the cup. The other team locked in players who finished last or second last in the league.
that's the difference.

questions?
Yeah, just one: How many playoff games did Seguin play, again?

smackdaddy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 02:08 AM
  #212
danishh
Dat Stache
 
danishh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: mtl/ott/somewhere
Country: Canada
Posts: 29,710
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post
Yeah, just one: How many playoff games did Seguin play, again?
20 more than taylor hall ([bill clinton accent]ze-ro [/bill clinton accent]).

anything else?

danishh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 02:09 AM
  #213
SDig14
Registered User
 
SDig14's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Edmonton, AB
Country: Canada
Posts: 7,641
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by danishh View Post
tyler seguin 34.5M 6 years
taylor hall 42M 7 years
__________________________
1 year 7.5M.



what did bill clinton call it again?
Lol, that's a bit of a strange way to look at it, no? You're looking at cap hit for starters, not actual salary, and you don't take the difference between two players to tell how much the Oilers paid for the added year, because the cap hit is 0.25 mill more for the first 6 years.

Hence, they still only pay 6 mill or the extra year, not 7.5.

Also, according to cap geek, Seguin actually gets paid 6.5 mill in year 6 vs 6.0 mill for Hall in year 6.

I like both deals, but they're pretty much identical and one isn't much better.

SDig14 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 02:11 AM
  #214
smackdaddy
Hall-RNH-Eberle
 
smackdaddy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: B.C.
Country: Canada
Posts: 8,983
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Plan The Parade View Post
The point was not that your numbers were wrong.

The point was that they were based on two pieces of data that resulted in a -.8PPG for Skinner last season. Which isn't enough data to form an idea of what a future trend will be.

And the point is that, if I make a trend (read: a prediction of what will happen in the future) based on 1 piece of data (the -.8 PPG that Skinner incurred from his freshman to sophomore season), then it is a worthless trend. We don't know whether either year was an outlier statistically for Skinner (and you know very well which year I think that was).

If you want to say, "Hey guys, I found a pattern here", then come back with more data to prove it(and if there isn't "more data", then don't post).
Right, except a trend is not a prediction. In this context it's the relationship between two points in time. How you decide to interpret that data is on you, but like I've said many times you cannot refute that Skinner has trended downward in his last 2 seasons.

I'd agree with you if we were making important decisions or deciding whether this trend is worthwhile in regards to a risk-reward analysis, but we aren't. We are just stating what Skinner has done and how one player (Read: Hall) is trending upward while another (Read: Skinner) is trending downward over the same period of time.


Last edited by smackdaddy: 09-12-2012 at 02:18 AM.
smackdaddy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 02:12 AM
  #215
smackdaddy
Hall-RNH-Eberle
 
smackdaddy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: B.C.
Country: Canada
Posts: 8,983
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by danishh View Post
20 more than taylor hall ([bill clinton accent]ze-ro [/bill clinton accent]).

anything else?


No no, I was talking about the year when he was benched while his team won the cup.

smackdaddy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 02:12 AM
  #216
danishh
Dat Stache
 
danishh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: mtl/ott/somewhere
Country: Canada
Posts: 29,710
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDig14 View Post
Lol, that's a bit of a strange way to look at it, no? You're looking at cap hit for starters, not actual salary, and you don't take the difference between two players to tell how much the Oilers paid for the added year, because the cap hit is 0.25 mill more for the first 6 years.

Hence, they still only pay 6 mill or the extra year, not 7.5.

Also, according to cap geek, Seguin actually gets paid 6.5 mill in year 6 vs 6.0 mill for Hall in year 6.

I like both deals, but they're pretty much identical and one isn't much better.
cap hit? who's looking at cap hit? Pretty sure you're the only one here concerned with that.

i'm looking at total salary over the contract. Simple arithmetic, my friend, arithmetic.

danishh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 02:13 AM
  #217
danishh
Dat Stache
 
danishh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: mtl/ott/somewhere
Country: Canada
Posts: 29,710
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by smackdaddy View Post


No no, I was talking about the year when he was benched while his team won the cup.
oh, you mean the year he played 13 more playoff games than Taylor Hall?

danishh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 02:13 AM
  #218
SDig14
Registered User
 
SDig14's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Edmonton, AB
Country: Canada
Posts: 7,641
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by danishh View Post
20 more than taylor hall ([bill clinton accent]ze-ro [/bill clinton accent]).

anything else?
I guess the only point I would make is locking up players isn't about team success.

If teams only signed players that led them to playoff success, then there would be dozens of stars looking for contracts right now.

Sadly, the Oilers have as many holes on their team as talent at the moment, so they have issues going forward.

SDig14 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 02:17 AM
  #219
smackdaddy
Hall-RNH-Eberle
 
smackdaddy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: B.C.
Country: Canada
Posts: 8,983
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by danishh View Post
oh, you mean the year he played 13 more playoff games than Taylor Hall?
You act as if Seguin is single-handedly responsible for the success of the Bruins. You realize that Seguin being drafted by a contender is considerably rare, right? I don't understand how arbitrarily being a hang'er-on to a Stanley Cup team is somehow supposed to convince me he's superior to Hall.

That's like saying any player who made the playoffs last year is better than Hall just for that reason. Pretty absurd.

smackdaddy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 02:21 AM
  #220
SDig14
Registered User
 
SDig14's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Edmonton, AB
Country: Canada
Posts: 7,641
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by danishh View Post
cap hit? who's looking at cap hit? Pretty sure you're the only one here concerned with that.

i'm looking at total salary over the contract. Simple arithmetic, my friend, arithmetic.
I guess my point is Hall would have signed for 6 mill on a 6 year deal too, so I don't feel they paid 7.5 just for the additional year. That would only be the case if he would have signed for 6/34.5 like Seguin, which wasn't an option IMO.

Either way, strange thing to be arguing about since it's rather insignificant.

SDig14 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 02:26 AM
  #221
danishh
Dat Stache
 
danishh's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: mtl/ott/somewhere
Country: Canada
Posts: 29,710
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by SDig14 View Post
I guess my point is Hall would have signed for 6 mill on a 6 year deal too, so I don't feel they paid 7.5 just for the additional year. That would only be the case if he would have signed for 6/34.5 like Seguin, which wasn't an option IMO.

Either way, strange thing to be arguing about since it's rather insignificant.
seguin signed for 34.5M for 6 years.
hall signed for 42M for 7 years.

by definition, an extra UFA year cost the oilers 7.5M.

not quite sure what you're arguing. I'd check my arithmetic if I were on your side of the argument.

danishh is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 02:45 AM
  #222
SDig14
Registered User
 
SDig14's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Edmonton, AB
Country: Canada
Posts: 7,641
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by danishh View Post
seguin signed for 34.5M for 6 years.
hall signed for 42M for 7 years.

by definition, an extra UFA year cost the oilers 7.5M.

not quite sure what you're arguing. I'd check my arithmetic if I were on your side of the argument.
You're looking at it as if the 2 options for the Oilers were either 6/34.5 or 7/42, which if that were the case then it would have cost them 7.5 for the additional year.

However, it was either going to be 6/36 or 7/42, so they didn't really overpay for one extra year.

If Hall says he will sign 1 year for 10 mill or 2 for 21, then you paid an additional 1 for the extra year.

You don't evaluate what additional money you paid based on what another player got, you have to look at it from the alternative amount for your own player.

It's not as simple as 42-34.5=7.5 IMO, but like I said before I don't know how this is even relevant to the thread, so I'll get back to it.

Deal should be good for both sides assuming Seguin continues to progress, same goes for Hall.

SDig14 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 03:15 AM
  #223
Bad News Bears
LISTEN TO LIFETIME
 
Bad News Bears's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: Australia
Country: Australia
Posts: 3,717
vCash: 500
Great signing. It's a shame that I'm contractually obligated to hate this kid, cos I'm a massive fan.

Bad News Bears is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 03:40 AM
  #224
tsunami
Registered User
 
tsunami's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Bienne - Switzerland
Country: Switzerland
Posts: 182
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by danishh View Post
cap hit? who's looking at cap hit? Pretty sure you're the only one here concerned with that.
You're surely right, no NHL teams cares at all about such insignificant details

tsunami is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-12-2012, 04:22 AM
  #225
Soundwave
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 26,331
vCash: 500
All three of Carolina (Skinner), Edmonton x2 (Hall and Eberle), and Boston (Seguin) should be happy that they have these kids locked up for a long time.

I think they're all going to be All-Star caliber players for many years.

Soundwave is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:31 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2015, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. 2015 All Rights Reserved.