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Gillis: Potential Return For Luongo May Not Improve Canucks **Mod Warning #86**

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Old
09-13-2012, 01:52 AM
  #126
I in the Eye
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Perhaps we're not looking at this the right way?


Maybe it's not about 2-3 destination teams? Maybe it's one destination team, FLA, that requires another team to facilitate the deal. In this case, it's not about markets changing, it's about bringing that new team to the fore and working things out with them.
Yup, and the new CBA needs finalizing to see how the details work out - that can turn a "solid" into "a deal that can be accept"... Luongo's way too calm, IMO... Gillis is way too calm, IMO... Luongo is back, to say goodbye, train, and wrap up Vancouver, IMO... I think this thing is closer to being done then not... Vancouver, Florida, and some other team... Larger deal that sends Luongo and top 6 forward to Florida... A return to Vancouver (and mystery team) that combines prospect(s), pick(s), plus roster player(s)... With three teams in the mix, there's bound to be a combination of assets to get it done while providing for each a good return... Or, in Vancouver's case a "different" return... and why shouldn't different be considered good... It's the sameness amongst things that determines attractiveness - but it's the differences amongst things that determines beauty...

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09-13-2012, 01:53 AM
  #127
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
O

Market Demand for A Goaltender -- This is a factor completely outside of Gillis' control. It could go up, could go down as games get played. None of us are in a position to predict which way it's gonna go, and realistically, neither is Gillis. So when being objective, he can't really consider this factor. This likely isn't going to change before games get played.
I think we are in Position, with a lot effort, time and analyse, to predict the way the market for Goalie will go. And i hope any GM of the league put effort into it, its part of their job.

My short work on this predict goalie value will go down summer 2013.
In my opinion that is why Luongo wasn't traded yet, Teams looking for a goalie are waiting since they will find more option next summer, for less, now is not the right timing to acquire one.

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09-13-2012, 01:57 AM
  #128
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For me Gillis has finally accepted that the market for Luongo is not as high as some had hoped

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09-13-2012, 02:00 AM
  #129
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Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
For me Gillis has finally accepted that the market for Luongo is not as high as some had hoped
Let the Komi for Luongo + 1st proposals begin!

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09-13-2012, 02:09 AM
  #130
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Originally Posted by danaluvsthekings View Post
I would say there are a few differences between Carter and Luongo, mainly being that Luongo plays a position where you only get to play 1 guy at a time whereas Carter is just going to be 1 of your 12 forwards. There are going to be a lot more teams looking to fill a hole up front than to fill their goaltending hole. The Kings were having trouble scoring and thought Carter was a fit because of their ex Flyers connections and Mike Richards. A lot of other teams probably were leery of trading for Carter and had LA not been willing, Columbus would either still be sitting on Carter or would have gotten less if they felt they absolutely needed to trade him at the deadline. Carter's got a long contract like Luongo does, but like I said, you're picking up a guy that is going to be one of your top 6 forwards for a long time.

Most teams, when looking to acquire a goalie at the trade deadline, are looking for a backup goalie, not a starter. Because of his contract, you're obviously not trading for Luongo to be your backup, he's a long term commitment as your starter. Teams with an established starter who might be struggling or injured aren't going to look to acquire Luongo because they figure at some point their starter will rebound or will get healthy again. It might cost you for that particular season, but you don't trade for a guy with a contract like Luongo's because your starter, who is signed for multiple years more, might be out 3-4 months. That's the problem in hoping that the market will change. It's a small number of teams interested in Luongo now and those teams are likely going to be the ones interested in 6 months or a year from now.
Obviously there are some differences, as you've pointed out, but I still think the two situations are comparable. I would like to add that even if the number of teams in the market stays constant, it is very possible that the interest of those teams changes. I'm also not expecting a return as good as the Carter trade, I was more comparing the potential timing of each deal.

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Old
09-13-2012, 02:20 AM
  #131
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Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
For me Gillis has finally accepted that the market for Luongo is not as high as some had hoped
Is that the same as the owners finally accepting that they couldn't have got as much out of the NHLPA as they had hoped? Is that why the owners are willing to accept less out of the NHLPA now, because they underestimated the NHLPA's position at the start?

Or, could it be, what you ask for initially is the highest benefit? And much higher than what you would be prepared to accept?

I don't think that Gillis seriously thought that he could get Gardiner + 5th overall + 2013 1st for Luongo... But I do think that Gillis seriously thought that he could get a free lunch out of Burke...


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09-13-2012, 03:18 AM
  #132
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Originally Posted by Taelin View Post
Let the Komi for Luongo + 1st proposals begin!
....and it is sarcastic responses like that that lead to mud being tossed at canuck fans. For the last 5 months some canuck fans have been talking about a top pick, prospect and top 6 fw for Luongo and Gillis has just confirmed what non-canuck fans have been saying for awhile about the return we will get for Luongo, It is far from being over

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09-13-2012, 03:27 AM
  #133
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Originally Posted by mrcrazycanuck View Post
....and it is sarcastic responses like that that lead to mud being tossed at canuck fans. For the last 5 months some canuck fans have been talking about a top pick, prospect and top 6 fw for Luongo and Gillis has just confirmed what non-canuck fans have been saying for awhile about the return we will get for Luongo, It is far from being over


Gillis confirmed the pieces he would accept in a deal? Where is this info?

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09-13-2012, 05:17 AM
  #134
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If this was a normal offseason this wouldn't even have been reported. Nothing was said!

If anything, it is becoming clear that the Canucks have failed to convert an asset. That is all. It isn't even known which asset they were trying to convert into what return!

Try to remember that Gillis is an outsider with the deranged notion that he knows the game better than anybody else. He is further handicapped by owners that have just enough hockey sense to screw things up. Add in the various vendettas and snubs and there are only a few teams they will talk to. Add the absurd owner awarded contract and the looming lockout and of course nothing will get done! Who will trade for a thirty-four year old goalie eighteen months removed from the game, with nine years left on his contract?

Luongo cannot be traded within the conference, not with his book on Vancouver players. He will veto any move within Canada for the taxation advantage the US offers (as well, which Canadian team is in contention?).

This, for me, leaves Philadelphia, TB and Boston. Philadelphia can upgrade thier goaltending and easily pass off Bryzgalov to Toronto (still a dick move to trade anybody to the worst team in pro sports, but softened by Burke's previous assosiation with the player). Tampa Bay has no visible starter. Boston can remain well tended in goal with the depth they have become accustomed to and Vancouver might accept Thomas as partial return.

The lockout will change everything, anyway, so it is no wonder Gillis is mouthing truisms in interviews. It means nothing.

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09-13-2012, 05:38 AM
  #135
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Eventually Gillis will accept whatever Florida is offering. Moving him to Florida is the lessor of four evils (Staying in Vancouver, Chicago, Leafs).

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09-13-2012, 05:48 AM
  #136
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Gillis just knows that with Luongo's no trade, he is very limited as to what he can get.
Look at the Nash trade.
This will end up being the same sort of thing.

This is what happens when GM's give out no trades/no moves like they are halloween candy

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09-13-2012, 06:03 AM
  #137
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IF Luongo was willing to waive his NTC to come to Toronto (a big "if"), and IF the Leafs wanted him (a smaller "if"), then I think a deal along the lines of Liles + MacArthur for Luongo would make sense. I think the Nucks have been missing a really smooth puck mover since Ehrhoff left, they went from being a super dangerous transition team to one that sometimes struggled to score, and I think Liles would help a lot there. MacArthur is a solid winger who can play on any of their top 3 lines, and simply add scoring depth. I honestly doubt the Nucks would get an offer much better than that.
We just signed Garrison as our Ehrhoff replacement. Lilies would be slotting in the third pairing, thus have little to no use for us. If we're dealing with Toronto then the offer stands the same it was in previous threads: Kadri, MacArthur/Ashton and Connolly.

Seeing that is a soft offer as it is. Anything less and we'll just keep him.

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09-13-2012, 06:32 AM
  #138
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Originally Posted by LuckyLager View Post
You don't see the comparison between Carter and Luongo because you don't want to. As you said:

"They traded him as soon as they could while maximizing his "futures" value (i.e. in a trade where a team is selling for futures, the return is always best near the deadline)."

As long as the Canucks are confident Schneider can carry the load in the playoffs then this statement can apply to Luongo just as easily as it did to Carter. If Gillis thinks he can get better value (in futures or otherwise) during the season/at the deadline then he's going to wait until then, which is what appears to be unfolding.
You seem to be missing the point. There's an inherit value to playoff teams to only having to pay a player post deadline, and getting him in the playoffs for free.

Vancouver is the type of team that's going to pay for that value. Columbus, as a non-playoff team, is the type that will build for the future using that effect. At the end of the day, the Canucks are going to put the best team out on the ice that they can under the salary cap. Keeping Luongo at the start of the year will mean $5.3m they cannot spend elsewhere.

Sure, if pursuing picks/prospects they'll get the most value at the deadline, but picks/prospects aren't going to help them win the cup this year. If they were to move him at the deadline, they'll simply want to turn around and trade picks/prospects for a player that helps them. That player is going to have the same effect as Luongo, being overvalued relative to picks as the deadline approaches, so there really is no net gain.

Quote:
Originally Posted by palindrom View Post
I think we are in Position, with a lot effort, time and analyse, to predict the way the market for Goalie will go. And i hope any GM of the league put effort into it, its part of their job.

My short work on this predict goalie value will go down summer 2013.
In my opinion that is why Luongo wasn't traded yet, Teams looking for a goalie are waiting since they will find more option next summer, for less, now is not the right timing to acquire one.
Any GM in the league can take a wild guess, but they'd be a fool to rely on it. Nobody knows how guys like Anders Lindback, Braden Holtby, Michael Neuvirth, James Reimer, Jakob Markstrom, Corey Crawford, Tuukka Rask, Jonathan Bernier, etc. are going to play this year. If every one of those goaltenders flops this year, Luongo will have much greater value than he does today. If every one of those goaltenders has a breakout year, Luongo will have much less value than he does today.


Last edited by seanlinden: 09-13-2012 at 06:45 AM.
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Old
09-13-2012, 06:36 AM
  #139
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If we don't sign Doan then I would say it starts with Lupul.
Just not in the consideration set of the Leafs.

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09-13-2012, 06:44 AM
  #140
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Eventually Gillis will accept whatever Florida is offering. Moving him to Florida is the lessor of four evils (Staying in Vancouver, Chicago, Leafs).
What makes you think that moving Gillis to Florida is the lesser of 4 evils? What in your mind differentiates Toronto and Florida?

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09-13-2012, 07:16 AM
  #141
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Originally Posted by I in the Eye View Post
Yup, and the new CBA needs finalizing to see how the details work out - that can turn a "solid" into "a deal that can be accept"... Luongo's way too calm, IMO... Gillis is way too calm, IMO... Luongo is back, to say goodbye, train, and wrap up Vancouver, IMO... I think this thing is closer to being done then not... Vancouver, Florida, and some other team... Larger deal that sends Luongo and top 6 forward to Florida... A return to Vancouver (and mystery team) that combines prospect(s), pick(s), plus roster player(s)... With three teams in the mix, there's bound to be a combination of assets to get it done while providing for each a good return... Or, in Vancouver's case a "different" return... and why shouldn't different be considered good... It's the sameness amongst things that determines attractiveness - but it's the differences amongst things that determines beauty...


To expand on this, I think that third team is going to be in on Theodore, Raymond and/or Upshall. In some capacity. A team that could use a combination of those players... The cap will also be a consideration, of course.



So what team could use forward depth or a decent goalie? CLB springs to mind, but they would have to work around Mason's contract. LWers and a goalie... CHI? TBay and WSH are still uncertain. Although Holtby seemed impressive, Lindback is a wildcard. Perhaps ANA could use some forward depth... MIN if the league re-aligns...NYI, PHX, PIT etc... The possibilities are there.



The one certainty is that Gillis will do his utmost to get Lu to FLA. The destination team is very likely to be them. Also, he has accommodated other players in the past in this fashion (Hordichuk, O'Brien). Him and Tallon have worked out multiple deals already. Lu wants to go back to his old haunts. And so, if these two teams are a distance apart on their prices, the third team could possibly bridge the gap.



Something like this:


VAN:
In: Pure futures (Org. needs, not team needs)
Out: Luongo +/- Raymond

Team X:
In: Upshall, Theodore +/- Raymond
Out: Futures only

FLA:
In: Luongo +/- NHL player(s)
Out: Futures +/- Upshall and/or Theodore



That would be the structure. Along these lines, CLB makes an excellent "middle man" because they have the extra 1st rounders for this year to give up for the "futures" part. In exchange, they get more goaltending insurance and depth enough to construct another NHL line. Granted, price points may vary. But the late 1sts are all but useless to them I would imagine. Getting NHLers would seem like a coup for them if it all worked out...


Last edited by Bleach Clean: 09-13-2012 at 07:24 AM.
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09-13-2012, 07:17 AM
  #142
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Originally Posted by Bourne Endeavor View Post
We just signed Garrison as our Ehrhoff replacement. Lilies would be slotting in the third pairing, thus have little to no use for us. If we're dealing with Toronto then the offer stands the same it was in previous threads: Kadri, MacArthur/Ashton and Connolly.

Seeing that is a soft offer as it is. Anything less and we'll just keep him.
You aren't going to get a great prospect and a top six forward / a good prospect for Roberto Luongo and that contract. I'm sure Mike Gillis agrees with me on Roberto's value, which is why he made that statement.

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09-13-2012, 07:37 AM
  #143
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Originally Posted by The Saurus View Post
You aren't going to get a great prospect and a top six forward / a good prospect for Roberto Luongo and that contract. I'm sure Mike Gillis agrees with me on Roberto's value, which is why he made that statement.
Kadri = Good Prospect
Ashton = B prospect
Macarthur = Tweener
Connolly = Cap dump.

Frankly anything less than Kadri + 1st or Kadri + Bozak + 2nd would be a no-go imo.

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09-13-2012, 07:57 AM
  #144
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I was gonna say Bozak and a 2nd (as a joke) but you guys would turn that down
No. Do it in a heartbeat.

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09-13-2012, 08:14 AM
  #145
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Originally Posted by The Saurus View Post
You aren't going to get a great prospect and a top six forward / a good prospect for Roberto Luongo and that contract. I'm sure Mike Gillis agrees with me on Roberto's value, which is why he made that statement.
As Vankiller pointed out, there is no "great prospect" in the aforementioned deal. That is essentially a "soft deal" and hurts Toronto even less seeing we'd probably have to toss in Raymond to compensate salary. Unless Ashton is chosen over MacArthur.

If Gillis saw your perspective. Luongo would have already been traded by now. He will do what is best for Vancouver and despite a HF consensus, selling Luongo for scraps is not on the agenda.

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09-13-2012, 08:15 AM
  #146
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We just signed Garrison as our Ehrhoff replacement.
Garrison is our Salo replacement, he's not a smooth skating, puck mover.

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09-13-2012, 08:20 AM
  #147
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Garrison is our Salo replacement, he's not a smooth skating, puck mover.
And he will likely play the point with Edler/Hamhuis, especially on the powerplay, thus taking on the role of Ehrhoff. Frankly, if his season with Florida was not a flash in the pan. One could argue he will be better simply because he is stronger defensively than Ehrhoff.

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09-13-2012, 08:34 AM
  #148
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Originally Posted by jumptheshark View Post
For me Gillis has finally accepted that the market for Luongo is not as high as some had hoped
I guess... I still strongly disagree though. Even if the market isn't that good, I don't see why we're in a rush. Gillis likely has a solid offer on the table from Florida that if push came to shove, he'd be relatively okay with. If we sign Doan, the cap rolls back, or we need cap space, Gillis will likely take it. But until that happens, we have no reason to rush a deal. We have no better use for Luongo's cap hit, I'd rather keep him and have him and Schneider splitting starts until the goalie market changes.

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09-13-2012, 08:47 AM
  #149
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Originally Posted by Taelin View Post
Let the Komi for Luongo + 1st proposals begin!
They started long time ago.

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09-13-2012, 08:50 AM
  #150
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I guess... I still strongly disagree though. Even if the market isn't that good, I don't see why we're in a rush. Gillis likely has a solid offer on the table from Florida that if push came to shove, he'd be relatively okay with. If we sign Doan, the cap rolls back, or we need cap space, Gillis will likely take it. But until that happens, we have no reason to rush a deal. We have no better use for Luongo's cap hit, I'd rather keep him and have him and Schneider splitting starts until the goalie market changes.
The glass is half full.

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