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Ducks sign Fowler [5 years/$4 Million AAV]

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Old
09-15-2012, 08:04 PM
  #51
HatTrick Swayze
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Nice to see the second contract is alive and well. Why do GMs no longer care about using their leverage?

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Old
09-15-2012, 08:15 PM
  #52
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As a Kings fan, it pains me to say it's a very good deal for both Anaheim and Fowler.

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09-15-2012, 09:19 PM
  #53
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Sigh, I hate to see what OEL is going to get. :/

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09-15-2012, 09:21 PM
  #54
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My first thought was "steal" .... So I like this as a Ducks fan

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09-15-2012, 09:47 PM
  #55
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Originally Posted by Sojourn View Post
You'd be surprised. I think it's a steal because Fowler looked poised to breakout this next season, and in a five year RFA contract potential is a huge factor. When you consider what his price tag could have been a month or two into the season, or when the season is over, the Ducks greatly benefit. Fowler's price tag only goes up from this point. He's 20 years old, playing top pairing minutes(with lots of untapped potential), and Anaheim has him locked up for six more years at a very sexy price.
His value goes up assuming he makes the jump. If he doesn't make the jump next year his value drops. If he posts another 30 point season with another team worst +/- around -25 to -30, it won't look good. I don't think Fowler is a steal on this contract, it seems just about right when you factor in Fowler gets security now and the Ducks are gambling on him getting better just to justify the $4m and hoping for a bargain later.

Fowler wins now, ducks win later.

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09-15-2012, 09:50 PM
  #56
Sojourn
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Originally Posted by me2 View Post
His value goes up assuming he makes the jump. If he doesn't make the jump next year his value drops. If he posts another 30 point season with another team worst +/- around -25 to -30, it won't look good. I don't think Fowler is a steal on this contract, it seems just about right when you factor in Fowler gets security now and the Ducks are gambling on him getting better just to justify the $4m and hoping for a bargain later.

Fowler wins now, ducks win later.
He doesn't need to "make the jump" to improve his value, he just needs to consistently improve... which is a pretty safe bet for a 20 year old defenseman.

Again, the contract doesn't kick in until the 2013-2014 season.

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09-15-2012, 10:08 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Sojourn View Post
He doesn't need to "make the jump" to improve his value, he just needs to consistently improve.
I say square, you say rectangle with 4 equal length sides.


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Again, the contract doesn't kick in until the 2013-2014 season.
Your point is?

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Old
09-15-2012, 10:19 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by me2 View Post
I say square, you say rectangle with 4 equal length sides.
Really? Because "make the jump" doesn't sound anything like consistent improvement. Given the context, it sounds like you're saying he breaks out. That isn't what I said at all. If Fowler breaks out, his value would increase substantially.

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Your point is?
I thought it was obvious. A 20 year old player is going to improve. Your entire argument seems based on the possibility that it may not happen. Just how likely do you think that is?

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Old
09-15-2012, 10:56 PM
  #59
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If he gets back to 40 points and starts playing defense, it'll be a good deal.

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09-16-2012, 12:19 AM
  #60
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I actually didn't think he'd get that much. He's got a ways to go. He'll be a damn good player for sure.. with all of these huge contracts that're being signed I just can't help but think that player salaries are going to get rolled back.

If that's not going to happen and the cap is going to get rolled back then I can't imagine how all of these teams are going to get all of these contracts under the cap.

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09-16-2012, 12:54 AM
  #61
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Defensemen especially have been getting insanely ridiculous contracts lately.

When you think about it, when guys like Finger got $3.5 mill four seasons ago even, Fowler's contract even now does not look that bad.

In a few years it will look like a great contract. Even if he tops out at 40-45 points and get get his +/- close to zero, its a very good deal.

Freaking 35 year old Filip Kuba got $4 per year for 2 years this off-season...now that's horrible.

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Old
09-16-2012, 12:56 AM
  #62
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Please enlighten me:

I fully understand that Fowler has the potential to be a #1 d-man and a potential All-Star, but is he a #1 defenseman currently? He is obviously making the right moves towards it, but has he developed into that type of player yet?

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09-16-2012, 01:21 AM
  #63
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Originally Posted by danccchan View Post
Please enlighten me:

I fully understand that Fowler has the potential to be a #1 d-man and a potential All-Star, but is he a #1 defenseman currently? He is obviously making the right moves towards it, but has he developed into that type of player yet?
No. He's not good enough offensively and certainly isn't good enough defensively to be a #1 guy. At this point, I see him as a complimentary piece to a blue line. Solid skating 2nd pairing d-man with room to grow.

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Old
09-16-2012, 02:19 AM
  #64
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This is a good deal. Fowler has a high boom potential.
Yet it still manages to litigate his bust potential. Sure he may not realize his potential and get over paid but he should always be at least a servicable offensive d-man.

Good signing. I'll admit it's probably one of the better 2nd contract signings out there.

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Old
09-16-2012, 02:31 AM
  #65
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There goes any hope of seing him in orange any time soon.

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09-16-2012, 02:53 AM
  #66
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Quote:
Originally Posted by danccchan View Post
Please enlighten me:

I fully understand that Fowler has the potential to be a #1 d-man and a potential All-Star, but is he a #1 defenseman currently? He is obviously making the right moves towards it, but has he developed into that type of player yet?
I see him as a decent #3 at this point. Anyways, I think his rookie year had much impact on this deal. If he can get back to 40 points $4 mil is a solid deal, and if he improves defenisvely with that it could end up a bargain.

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Old
09-16-2012, 04:54 AM
  #67
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rofl.

> offer 4M contracts to unproven players
> beg bettman to save them from their own stupidity

anyone else still wondering why this ****ing league is going to lockout?
Yep, those 4m a year contracts on top 4 dman (and a guy who's been playing 1st pairing minutes for half of his NHL career almost) with still a lot more potential left are driving this league to a lockout!

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Old
09-16-2012, 05:05 AM
  #68
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Quote:
Originally Posted by danccchan View Post
Please enlighten me:

I fully understand that Fowler has the potential to be a #1 d-man and a potential All-Star, but is he a #1 defenseman currently? He is obviously making the right moves towards it, but has he developed into that type of player yet?
He played top pairing minutes last year and was a little overwhelmed, hence the drop in production and the terrible +/-. He's definitely not far off and on 90% of teams he's a #3 guy.

From watching him play the last two years, the sky is the limit for him. His hockey sense is off the charts and there were times where he looked like a young Niedermayer out there. There were also a lot of times where he looked like a 20 year old playing minutes he wasn't quite ready for though.

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Old
09-16-2012, 12:30 PM
  #69
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Originally Posted by Paul4587 View Post
He played top pairing minutes last year and was a little overwhelmed, hence the drop in production and the terrible +/-. He's definitely not far off and on 90% of teams he's a #3 guy.

From watching him play the last two years, the sky is the limit for him. His hockey sense is off the charts and there were times where he looked like a young Niedermayer out there. There were also a lot of times where he looked like a 20 year old playing minutes he wasn't quite ready for though.
This sums Fowler up perfectly.

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Old
09-16-2012, 07:21 PM
  #70
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Originally Posted by Sojourn View Post
Really? Because "make the jump" doesn't sound anything like consistent improvement. Given the context, it sounds like you're saying he breaks out. That isn't what I said at all. If Fowler breaks out, his value would increase substantially.



I thought it was obvious. A 20 year old player is going to improve. Your entire argument seems based on the possibility that it may not happen. Just how likely do you think that is?
Most advance, some don't. My argument is he is not worth $4m based on current play. Take age out of it, how much would a 30 yo 30-40 point offensive Dman with a history career of posting -25 to -30 year in year out fetch. How many of those guys are even in the league?. Alternatively look at it this way, on some teams Fowler would have been sent back to junior round out his game.

That's why I don't think he's not a $4m Dman yet, but that is just my view, based entirely on what he's done to date and ignoring age. He's getting paid for something he has yet to achieve, which is fine since he's young and very talented. What are the 3 outcomes of this contract
* he'll be a legit top pairing D in 3-4 years and a huge bargain if he progresses (I think this probably)
* if he progresses but then stalls and becomes a $4m 2nd pairing Dman.
* If he doesn't progress enough then he's an overpaid 3rd pairing D or worse.

I like the contract, I'd love to have Fowler on that contract on Canucks as his potential is enormous and he'll probably reach it, I'm just saying it's not a steal it's a reasonable bet each way with edge side hedging a bit.

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Old
09-17-2012, 02:28 AM
  #71
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I like it a lot. I imagine Fowler is going to continue to improve, and make it look great in the last couple years of the deal.

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Old
09-17-2012, 03:02 AM
  #72
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Most advance, some don't. My argument is he is not worth $4m based on current play. Take age out of it, how much would a 30 yo 30-40 point offensive Dman with a history career of posting -25 to -30 year in year out fetch. How many of those guys are even in the league?. Alternatively look at it this way, on some teams Fowler would have been sent back to junior round out his game.

That's why I don't think he's not a $4m Dman yet, but that is just my view, based entirely on what he's done to date and ignoring age. He's getting paid for something he has yet to achieve, which is fine since he's young and very talented. What are the 3 outcomes of this contract
* he'll be a legit top pairing D in 3-4 years and a huge bargain if he progresses (I think this probably)
* if he progresses but then stalls and becomes a $4m 2nd pairing Dman.
* If he doesn't progress enough then he's an overpaid 3rd pairing D or worse.

I like the contract, I'd love to have Fowler on that contract on Canucks as his potential is enormous and he'll probably reach it, I'm just saying it's not a steal it's a reasonable bet each way with edge side hedging a bit.
If he doesn't progress he is overpaid by 1-1.5mil. Thats not a nightmare.

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