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Adjusted Even Strength Production Leaders

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Old
10-29-2011, 09:19 AM
  #1
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Adjusted Even Strength Production Leaders

These numbers are using the following standard "simple" adjustments:

82 games/season
6.00 Even Strength goals/game
1.667 assists/goal


Last edited by Czech Your Math: 12-02-2012 at 09:00 PM.
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10-30-2011, 07:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SidGenoMario View Post
The reason Crosby's 2010 WAS that impressive is because he dominated every inch of the ice, showing a dedication to defense and better overall play that he hadn't shown yet in his career. It was the most consistently dominant I'd seen any player play in my entire life, points be damned.
When was the last even strength more dominant season than 2010 Crosby ?

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10-30-2011, 07:18 PM
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When was the last even strength more dominant season than 2010 Crosby ?
I'm an idiot, but I'm not sure what you're asking.

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10-30-2011, 08:11 PM
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Originally Posted by SidGenoMario View Post
I'm an idiot, but I'm not sure what you're asking.
Nah my english is my second language and bad.

I'm asking when was the last time that a player was as dominant than 2010 Crosby, at even strengh.

I do not think that 2007 Crosby was, does Ovechkin (like is 65 goals season) was as good at even strengh at winning hockey game ?

Was Jagr, Thorton 2005-2006 ?

Or that Crosby strech was the best post-lockout and we have to go back to Joe Sakic ?

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11-03-2011, 07:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MadLuke View Post
When was the last even strength more dominant season than 2010 Crosby ?
I also am not sure exactly what you're asking.

Crosby didn't have a dominant season last year, he had half of one.

As far as even strength points, the best seasons since the lockout:

H. Sedin '10 83
Ovechkin '08 75
Ovechkin '10 73
Crosby '10 72
Thornton '06 72
Jagr '06 71
Malkin '09 70


Last edited by Czech Your Math: 11-03-2011 at 09:40 AM.
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11-03-2011, 09:01 AM
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Was talking about the stretch obviously, from the Olympics to the injury.

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09-15-2012, 12:16 AM
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Adjusted Even Strength Production Leaders

These numbers are adjusted to 6.00 even strength goals per game.
ES data is only available for the past 20-25 years, except for select players that played into the 90s (e.g. Trottier). ESG data is available back to 1968. I probably forgot some players from the 70s and 80s, but tried to include the some of the best goal scorers from those eras.

Career Adjusted ES Goals:

PLAYER ESG
Gretzky 735
Jagr 718
Hull 649
Selanne 622
Esposito 597
Robitaille 590
Shanahan 585
Yzerman 582
Messier 578
Sakic 577
Sundin 569
Dionne 556
Modano 555
Iginla 541
Recchi 524
Lemieux 515
Tkachuk 489
Lafleur 480
Kurri 467
Francis 464

Career Adjusted ES Assists

PLAYER ESA
Gretzky 1,458
Jagr 958
Francis 940
Messier 927
Oates 909
Yzerman 862
Sakic 859
Recchi 858
Gilmour 810
Dionne 798*
Thornton 745
Esposito 737*
Turgeon 723
Trottier 712
Sundin 711
Coffey 710
Lemieux 707
Bourque 699
Modano 685
Lafleur 673*

* estimated using % of goals at ES each season

Career Adjusted ES Points

PLAYER ESP
Gretzky 2,193
Jagr 1,676
Messier 1,505
Yzerman 1,444
Sakic 1,436
Francis 1,403
Recchi 1,381
Dionne 1,354*
Esposito 1,334*
Sundin 1,280
Selanne 1,265
Robitaille 1,240
Modano 1,240
Oates 1,227
Lemieux 1,222
Shanahan 1,198
Hull 1,194
Turgeon 1,186
Gilmour 1,178
Lafleur 1,153*


Last edited by Czech Your Math: 09-15-2012 at 06:37 PM.
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Old
09-15-2012, 12:22 AM
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Avg. of best 3 adjusted ESG seasons:

PLAYER ESG
Gretzky 62
Selanne 62
Hull 61
Esposito 61
Ovechkin 60
Bure 59
Jagr 57
LeClair 54
Iginla 54
Lemieux 51
Stamkos 51
Kurri 51
Lafleur 51
Kovalchuk 50
Lindros 49
Yzerman 49
Tkachuk 49
Bossy 48
Robitaille 45
Malkin 45
Dionne 44
Sakic 44
Sundin 44
Crosby 43
Fedorov 43

Avg. of best 5 adj. ESG:

PLAYER ESG
Gretzky 57
Ovechkin 54
Jagr 54
Esposito 54
Hull 54
Selanne 53
Bure 53
LeClair 51
Iginla 49
Lemieux 48
Lafleur 48
Kovalchuk 47
Bossy 46
Yzerman 46
Kurri 46
Lindros 45
Tkachuk 45
Robitaille 45
Dionne 43
Sakic 41
Sundin 41
Modano 40
Crosby 40
Fedorov 39
Kariya 39

Avg. of best 8 ESG:

PLAYER ESG
Gretzky 52
Jagr 52
Hull 48
Esposito 48
Selanne 47
Bure 45
Bossy 45
Lemieux 44
LeClair 44
Iginla 44
Kovalchuk 43
Lafleur 42
Robitaille 42
Kurri 41
Lindros 41
Yzerman 40
Dionne 40
Sakic 39
Tkachuk 39
Sundin 38
Modano 38

Avg. of best 10 ESG:

PLAYER ESG
Gretzky 50
Jagr 49
Hull 46
Esposito 45
Selanne 44
Bossy 43
Lemieux 42
Iginla 42
Kovalchuk 42
Bure 41
Robitaille 40
LeClair 40
Lafleur 39
Dionne 38
Kurri 38
Yzerman 37
Sakic 37
Sundin 37
Lindros 37
Modano 36
Tkachuk 36


Last edited by Czech Your Math: 09-15-2012 at 04:52 AM.
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09-15-2012, 12:29 AM
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Avg. of best 3 ES Points seasons:

PLAYER ESG
Gretzky 155
Esposito 135*
Jagr 131
Lafleur 118*
Lemieux 117
Ovechkin 109
Lindros 109
Malkin 108
Yzerman 107
LeClair 106
Thornton 106
Selanne 106
Dionne 105*
Bossy 104*
Forsberg 103
Iginla 100
Trottier 100
H.Sedin 99
Crosby 98
Bure 98
Kurri 98
Fedorov 96
Sundin 96
Sakic 96
D.Sedin 92

Avg. of best 5 ESP:

PLAYER ESG
Gretzky 151
Jagr 124
Esposito 119*
Lafleur 112*
Lemieux 110
Thornton 102
Lindros 101
Ovechkin 101
LeClair 99
Dionne 99*
Yzerman 98
Selanne 98
Bossy 97*
Forsberg 95
Trottier 95
Iginla 94
Sakic 93
Malkin 93
Kurri 93
Bure 91
H.Sedin 90
Crosby 90
Sundin 90
St. Louis 88
Robitaille 88

Avg. of best 8 ESP:

PLAYER ESG
Gretzky 143
Jagr 115
Esposito 106*
Lemieux 101
Lafleur 99*
Thornton 94
Dionne 93*
Lindros 91
Sakic 91
Yzerman 91
Selanne 90
Bossy 90*
LeClair 89
Iginla 87
Forsberg 87
Trottier 86
Kurri 86
Robitaille 85
St. Louis 85
Sundin 84
Oates 84
Recchi 83
Hull 82
Messier 81
Bure 80

Avg. of best 10 ESP:

PLAYER ESG
Gretzky 138
Jagr 110
Esposito 99*
Lemieux 97
Lafleur 91*
Dionne 90*
Sakic 89
Thornton 89
Yzerman 87
Selanne 86
Bossy 84*
Lindros 84
Iginla 83
Robitaille 82
Oates 82
Sundin 82
Kurri 81
LeClair 81
Trottier 81
Recchi 80
Forsberg 80
Hull 79
Messier 79
St. Louis 79
Modano 76


Last edited by Czech Your Math: 09-15-2012 at 06:38 PM.
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Old
09-15-2012, 10:18 AM
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As a Leaf fan and a fan of Sundin I'm a bit surprised he's on every list but glad nonetheless

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09-15-2012, 10:25 AM
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Wow. Selanne is beast.

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09-15-2012, 06:16 PM
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Wow. Iginla is alot better ES then I expected. The only people he is behind consistently are some of the 5-10 best players to ever play the game. In goals at least. Hmm

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09-15-2012, 11:39 PM
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We know a higher percentage of overall offense comes from first liners now than in the 1980s. Is this not still true at even strength?

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09-16-2012, 12:56 AM
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
We know a higher percentage of overall offense comes from first liners now than in the 1980s. Is this not still true at even strength?
This is true at even strength. The distribution question is an interesting one.

Here are some numbers for a selection of NHL seasons since expansion.

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
1968 28.8% 25.9% 23.7% 22.1% 19.7% 17.8% 16.6% 14.6% 12.3% 9.4% 7.2% 5.6%
1973 30.0% 27.0% 24.3% 21.7% 20.3% 18.2% 16.3% 13.9% 12.0% 9.7% 7.0% 4.9%
1978 29.1% 23.7% 21.1% 19.2% 17.7% 16.6% 14.7% 13.4% 11.9% 10.0% 8.1% 5.9%
1983 27.9% 24.4% 21.6% 18.8% 17.1% 15.3% 14.1% 12.7% 11.1% 9.7% 8.1% 6.4%
1988 28.8% 24.5% 21.4% 19.5% 17.3% 14.9% 13.9% 12.0% 10.8% 9.1% 7.6% 6.3%
1993 30.4% 24.8% 21.4% 19.8% 17.4% 15.1% 13.4% 11.5% 10.3% 8.3% 7.3% 6.2%
1998 31.9% 24.6% 21.3% 19.3% 17.3% 15.5% 13.2% 11.5% 10.0% 8.8% 6.9% 6.0%
2003 30.9% 26.6% 23.5% 20.0% 17.5% 15.5% 13.5% 12.2% 10.7% 9.0% 7.5% 6.2%
2008 32.6% 27.5% 24.0% 21.1% 17.8% 16.0% 14.2% 12.3% 10.7% 9.2% 7.8% 6.2%
2012 30.5% 26.4% 23.6% 21.0% 18.1% 15.3% 13.6% 11.9% 10.0% 8.4% 6.7% 5.2%

Year 1-3 (First line) 4-6 (Second line) 7-9 (Third line) 10-12 (Fourth line) 1-6 (Top six) 7-12 (Bottom six)
1968 26.1% 19.9% 14.5% 7.4% 23.0% 11.0%
1973 27.1% 20.0% 14.1% 7.2% 23.6% 10.6%
1978 24.7% 17.8% 13.3% 8.0% 21.3% 10.7%
1983 24.7% 17.1% 12.6% 8.0% 20.9% 10.3%
1988 24.9% 17.3% 12.2% 7.7% 21.1% 10.0%
1993 25.6% 17.4% 11.8% 7.3% 21.5% 9.5%
1998 26.0% 17.4% 11.5% 7.2% 21.7% 9.4%
2003 27.0% 17.6% 12.2% 7.5% 22.3% 9.9%
2008 28.0% 18.3% 12.4% 7.8% 23.2% 10.1%
2012 26.8% 18.1% 11.8% 6.8% 22.5% 9.3%

The percentages posted are for the average percentage of team even strength goals for which the Nth highest even strength scoring forward on the team received a point.

So in 1968, the average team had the top EV scorer post a point on 28.8% of even strength goals. This number rose by 1973, dropped and reached a low point in the 1980s, and then rose to a high point in the late 90s and 00s.

Compare Wayne Gretzky's 1982-83 season to Jaromir Jagr's 1997-98 season.

Gretzky scored 133 even strength points in a context where 1. The average team scored 228.9 even strength goals, and 2. The average team leading ES scorer recorded a point on 27.9% of team ES goals.

Jagr scored 64 even strength points in a context where 1. The average team scored 148.9 even strength goals, and 2. The average team leading ES scorer recorded a point on 31.9% of team ES goals.

These simple adjusted points adjust for 1. but not 2.

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09-16-2012, 02:56 AM
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That's some interesting info and I didn't have access to that. Where did you get the data for those results?

Any theories as to why first liners score a higher proportion of points than in the 80s? It could be that once all of the European/Russian forwards were free to come to the NHL, they did so disproportionately, so that the top line forwards were relatively better compared to the 3rd/4th liners than back in the 80s. It could be that 3rd/4th liners were expected to score more back in the 80s, and are relied on more defensively in more recent years. It could be that with better goalie technique/equipment, it became disproportionately more difficult for 3rd/4th liners to score than for top line forwards. It may be a combination of these factors, but I'm interested to hear other theories and how any/all can be substantiated with data.


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09-16-2012, 12:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
That's some interesting info and I didn't have access to that. Where did you get the data for those results?

Any theories as to why first liners score a higher proportion of points than in the 80s? It could be that once all of the European/Russian forwards were free to come to the NHL, they did so disproportionately, so that the top line forwards were relatively better compared to the 3rd/4th liners than back in the 80s. It could be that 3rd/4th liners were expected to score more back in the 80s, and are relied on more defensively in more recent years. It could be that with better goalie technique/equipment, it became disproportionately more difficult for 3rd/4th liners to score than for top line forwards. It may be a combination of these factors, but I'm interested to hear other theories and how any/all can be substantiated with data.
I think you hit the three possible explanations, or at least the only ones I could think of. It is definitely true that lower lines are coached to play more defensively now that in the 80s. The 80s were pretty unique in NHL history in that lower lines were often used simply to outscored the opponent's lower lines, rather than as primarily checking units. The other two reasons you give are probably true, as well. Good call on the "Europeans coming over tend to be skilled scorers" one - I hadn't seen it posted on the history board yet.

My guess is that the biggest factor is a change in the way lower lines are used by coaches, but I think the other two factors probably contribute, as well.

Now mathematically accounting for these factors - that's the hard part! Clearly more recent first liners should not get extra credit for lower line players having more difficulty scoring or or the way coaches use lower lines. But they probably should get credit for the fact that more of them are skilled Euros.

For now, I think the most accurate estimatation would be to assume the greater difficulty in first liners from the 80s getting adjusted points is all due to external factors of era, and a second adjustment should be made. Unless somehow you can find a way to tease out any disproportionate impact of Europeans coming over.

My guess is the impact of Europeans is a minor factor though - considering the percentages today resemble percentages from the 70s (correct?) and it's really just the 80s that is the major outlier, right?

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09-16-2012, 12:19 PM
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The short version of my ramble post - if percentage of offense coming from first liners in the 1970s was similar to today (and I think it was), the effect of Europeans coming over on the percentages is probably minimal. I think coaching, specifically the usage of lower lines in the 80s, is probably the biggest factor

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09-16-2012, 09:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
For now, I think the most accurate estimatation would be to assume the greater difficulty in first liners from the 80s getting adjusted points is all due to external factors of era, and a second adjustment should be made. Unless somehow you can find a way to tease out any disproportionate impact of Europeans coming over.
I think it could be examined at least. Europeans & Russians really started coming over around '89 or '90. So one could look at the late 80s vs. the early 90s (through ~'93 or '94, before defense became so emphasized) and see if there was a change in the early 90s as more European/Russian stars entered the NHL.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
My guess is the impact of Europeans is a minor factor though - considering the percentages today resemble percentages from the 70s (correct?) and it's really just the 80s that is the major outlier, right?
The data Overpass presented looks similar for the 70s vs. the 90s/00s, but if one was doing "extra" adjustments, it should be considered that adjusted points were much easier for top line players in the 70s than in later decades (I assume this would apply to just ES points as well).

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09-17-2012, 07:37 AM
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Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post
That's some interesting info and I didn't have access to that. Where did you get the data for those results?

Any theories as to why first liners score a higher proportion of points than in the 80s? It could be that once all of the European/Russian forwards were free to come to the NHL, they did so disproportionately, so that the top line forwards were relatively better compared to the 3rd/4th liners than back in the 80s. It could be that 3rd/4th liners were expected to score more back in the 80s, and are relied on more defensively in more recent years. It could be that with better goalie technique/equipment, it became disproportionately more difficult for 3rd/4th liners to score than for top line forwards. It may be a combination of these factors, but I'm interested to hear other theories and how any/all can be substantiated with data.
ESG data is from official NHL stats.

ES assists are official from 1987-88. Before that time they are estimates, but I have replaced the estimates for most prominent players with unofficial boxscore data from the HSP. The estimates may add a little error to the results pre-88 but should not make much difference to the top end.

I'm planning to make a full post at some point with distribution stats of this type for all years and both F and D.

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10-07-2012, 04:15 PM
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
The short version of my ramble post - if percentage of offense coming from first liners in the 1970s was similar to today (and I think it was), the effect of Europeans coming over on the percentages is probably minimal. I think coaching, specifically the usage of lower lines in the 80s, is probably the biggest factor
In 1973 there were 16 teams. In 1978 there were 18. In 1983 and 1988 there were 21. In 1993 there were 24 teams, 26 in 1998, and all later years in the grid have 30 teams.

I can't speak for the high number in the early 70s, but the later trend seems to indicate "more teams=more balanced scoring". One guess I might have is that 1973 did not use divisions, while the later years did.

But if you want a great look at how teams in the 80s were all basically the same aside from your top few players, compare the 1986 Oilers and the 1986 Leafs. Take off the top four scoring forwards and the top scoring defenseman from each team, and look at the roster. It's almost statistically identical; Toronto is actually offensively more powerful at that point.

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10-07-2012, 10:06 PM
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Originally Posted by eva unit zero View Post
In 1973 there were 16 teams. In 1978 there were 18. In 1983 and 1988 there were 21. In 1993 there were 24 teams, 26 in 1998, and all later years in the grid have 30 teams.

I can't speak for the high number in the early 70s, but the later trend seems to indicate "more teams=more balanced scoring". One guess I might have is that 1973 did not use divisions, while the later years did.


But if you want a great look at how teams in the 80s were all basically the same aside from your top few players, compare the 1986 Oilers and the 1986 Leafs. Take off the top four scoring forwards and the top scoring defenseman from each team, and look at the roster. It's almost statistically identical; Toronto is actually offensively more powerful at that point.
That's not what the data shows. Scoring in the 1980s was more balanced than it has been from the mid 1990s to today.

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10-08-2012, 01:39 AM
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I'm not sure if the data supports this, but it seems to that expansion should naturally lead to less scoring by the lower lines.

I.e. in a 12 team league, there are 72 players playing on the top two lines. In a 30 team league all of those (theoretically), plus 18 others would be playing on the first line. The second line would consist of many players that would not even have made it in a 12 team league.

Intuitively this would mean that difference between the average level of play on the first and second line should increase.

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10-08-2012, 12:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by steve141 View Post
I'm not sure if the data supports this, but it seems to that expansion should naturally lead to less scoring by the lower lines.

I.e. in a 12 team league, there are 72 players playing on the top two lines. In a 30 team league all of those (theoretically), plus 18 others would be playing on the first line. The second line would consist of many players that would not even have made it in a 12 team league.

Intuitively this would mean that difference between the average level of play on the first and second line should increase.
Perhaps the absorption of the WHA into the NHL is what led to lower lines scoring more in the 80s than in the 70s? It's possible.

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10-08-2012, 02:05 PM
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I was thinking that Lemieux was incredibily low on the top 3 season average, before realising that was only even strenght scoring.

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11-04-2012, 03:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by overpass View Post
The percentages posted are for the average percentage of team even strength goals for which the Nth highest even strength scoring forward on the team received a point.

So in 1968, the average team had the top EV scorer post a point on 28.8% of even strength goals. This number rose by 1973, dropped and reached a low point in the 1980s, and then rose to a high point in the late 90s and 00s.
It would seem using the Nth highest scoring (ES) player on each team makes the metric influenced by league parity. In particular for top (line) players, the more balanced the league is in terms of top talent distribution, the higher the top tiers would be expected to score compared to bottom tiers. For instance, I would expect top players to be lower scoring compared to bottom tiers of players during the early-mid 70s, because I would expect their bottom lines were proportionately closer to those of the powerhouses than the top lines were.

I know it's difficult to filter out the influences of other factors, but do you think this factor could have a significant affect on the results by tier?


Last edited by Czech Your Math: 11-04-2012 at 03:55 AM.
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