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Gillis: Potential Return For Luongo May Not Improve Canucks **Mod Warning #86**

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09-17-2012, 06:53 PM
  #876
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Originally Posted by Kadri43 View Post
Ya I know the other guy brought it up but no way are the Canucks going to get that package. Lombardi/Connolly only have 1 more year left. There is no way the Canucks are getting Kadri and a 1st. I know Luongo has value (contrary to what a lot of people think) but kadri and a 1st is too much.
I don't believe it is the right value either, but there's no point in a pissing match about what "proper value" is.

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09-17-2012, 07:02 PM
  #877
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Don't act like Burke is desperate to add a contract he's been on record as not liking, especially not at a premium price. Florida and Vancouver can dicker about price all they want, but without Toronto at the table, Tallon has no need to pay the desired price.

There's also the difference between Florida and Toronto as we all know Florida is where Luongo wants to be so they don't have nearly the same risk.
I think Burke would be smart to get Luongo... I think Tallon would be too... I think any team that is looking for marked improvement (that doesn't have a better goaltender than Luongo already on the team) would be smart to get Luongo... That's my honest opinion... I wouldn't say that Burke is desperate... I'd say Burke would (or should) be eager... It would do Burke well, IMO, to pay a little more than offer a little less, given that it's Luongo that's being talked about...

It's difficult to create in-house or acquire on the market a goaltender as good as Luongo... I think that's a fact... I think that there will be more market for Luongo than what is common wisdom on this board...

Obviously, we don't control the real world Luongo trade... My opinion is that if push came to shove, Gillis would not need to take any salary back that he doesn't want to add to the team... From my outside perspective, Upshall wouldn't be a bad player to add, if Gillis sees him as a fit...

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09-17-2012, 07:08 PM
  #878
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don't know why the canucks need to tip toe around to please luongo, IMO he knew just as well as Gillis what they were getting into when the contract was signed.

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09-17-2012, 07:09 PM
  #879
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I don't get how an NTC would hurt Luongo's value - the team acquiring him, wants him in the first place, why be bothered about how to get rid of him? It's not like they'd be planning on moving him after 2 or 3 years, they want him as a #1. They think he'll be a #1 for a long time yet, otherwise they don't even go near him, even for a big discount - because they would still be on the hook for the same dollar amount.

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09-17-2012, 07:20 PM
  #880
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Originally Posted by smoke meat pete View Post
Don't act like Burke is desperate to add a contract he's been on record as not liking, especially not at a premium price. Florida and Vancouver can dicker about price all they want, but without Toronto at the table, Tallon has no need to pay the desired price.

There's also the difference between Florida and Toronto as we all know Florida is where Luongo wants to be so they don't have nearly the same risk.
From an outsider perspective, the argument that you 2 are having is completely ridiculous. GMs don't care about "who has to do the dirty work", or who's going to get invited to the table.... even more ridiculous is the arguement over "full value" versus "a discount".

Luongo is going to get traded for fair market value, that is marginally more than the second best offer. What that exact offer is will of course depend on where the cap ends up, what rollback there is, if any, and how these retirement deals are treated under the CBA.

However, notions of Kadri and a first (without Vancouver taking something really negative, that Toronto doesn't even have to get rid of) simply aren't reality, even if the cap remained at $70m which it is obviously not going to do. It's not a deal the Leafs would be prepared to do, and seems to be far beyond what the Leafs would have to part with to give Vancouver the best deal.

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Originally Posted by ProspectProphet View Post
I don't get how an NTC would hurt Luongo's value - the team acquiring him, wants him in the first place, why be bothered about how to get rid of him? It's not like they'd be planning on moving him after 2 or 3 years, they want him as a #1. They think he'll be a #1 for a long time yet, otherwise they don't even go near him, even for a big discount - because they would still be on the hook for the same dollar amount.
Not really. Most of the league's better teams are in positions where they're not looking to upgrade goaltending (Chicago obviously excluded). The crappier teams look towards the future, and most have a young project goaltender that they hope can develop into a #1 and grow with their team. Toronto's got Reimer, Florida's got Markstrom, the Panthers have Theodore to bridge the gap, and I suspect the Leafs would much prefer a guy like Backstrom to do the same versus Luongo.

There's not a ton of value in having a great goaltender when the rest of your team isn't ready to contend. Older players, goaltenders included, can be reasonably expected to decline later into their careers. Doesn't make sense to have a declining goalie on a fixed contract (when it seems that both the players and league have agreed to a declining portion of revenues going forward, so equal on the cap) with a young team.

Many GMs would much rather dedicate those assets to young players, and money to overpaying young guys right now on long term deals, in hopes that their productivity increases while cost remains the same.


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09-17-2012, 07:26 PM
  #881
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Originally Posted by I in the Eye View Post
Obviously, we don't control the real world Luongo trade... My opinion is that if push came to shove, Gillis would not need to take any salary back that he doesn't want to add to the team... From my outside perspective, Upshall wouldn't be a bad player to add, if Gillis sees him as a fit...
Well, it's my opinion Gillis will end up adding salary he does want, and not prospects. I don't expect Burke to make a big push for him but I think he would offer guys like MacA, Franson and maybe a few other 25+ year olds and the salary will match, I just don't see a prospect/pick deal without Gillis having to eat something.

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09-17-2012, 07:27 PM
  #882
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From an outsider perspective, the argument that you 2 are having is completely ridiculous. GMs don't care about "who has to do the dirty work", or who's going to get invited to the table.... even more ridiculous is the arguement over "full value" versus "a discount".

Luongo is going to get traded for fair market value, that is marginally more than the second best offer. What that exact offer is will of course depend on where the cap ends up, what rollback there is, if any, and how these retirement deals are treated under the CBA.

However, notions of Kadri and a first (without Vancouver taking something really negative, that Toronto doesn't even have to get rid of) simply aren't reality, even if the cap remained at $70m which it is obviously not going to do. It's not a deal the Leafs would be prepared to do, and seems to be far beyond what the Leafs would have to part with to give Vancouver the best deal.
Yea, I agree.

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09-17-2012, 07:32 PM
  #883
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From an outsider perspective, the argument that you 2 are having is completely ridiculous. GMs don't care about "who has to do the dirty work", or who's going to get invited to the table.... even more ridiculous is the arguement over "full value" versus "a discount".

Luongo is going to get traded for fair market value, that is marginally more than the second best offer. What that exact offer is will of course depend on where the cap ends up, what rollback there is, if any, and how these retirement deals are treated under the CBA.

However, notions of Kadri and a first (without Vancouver taking something really negative, that Toronto doesn't even have to get rid of) simply aren't reality, even if the cap remained at $70m which it is obviously not going to do. It's not a deal the Leafs would be prepared to do, and seems to be far beyond what the Leafs would have to part with to give Vancouver the best deal.
Gillis isn't going to accept a salary back, if he feels that salary isn't in the best interest of the team... If Toronto needs to dump a salary, that's Toronto's problem... If the best that Toronto is offering includes a salary dump, and Gillis doesn't want a salary dump, Gillis isn't going to trade Luongo to Toronto... Another offer will be deemed better... The Canucks are in win-now mode... Poor roster players with bad salaries hurts this (the Canucks are a good, deep team with, by and large, great salaries throughout)... Gillis isn't going to trade Luongo for a return that hurts Vancouver... This isn't rocket science, seanlinden... Think.

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09-17-2012, 07:37 PM
  #884
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Originally Posted by I in the Eye View Post
Gillis isn't going to accept a salary back, if he feels that salary isn't in the best interest of the team... If Toronto needs to dump a salary, that's Toronto's problem... If the best that Toronto is offering includes a salary dump, and Gillis doesn't want a salary dump, Gillis isn't going to trade Luongo to Toronto... Another offer will be deemed better... The Canucks are in win-now mode... Poor roster players with bad salaries hurts this (the Canucks are a good, deep team with, by and large, great salaries throughout)... Gillis isn't going to trade Luongo for a return that hurts Vancouver... This isn't rocket science, seanlinden... Think.
Are you really so concerned with Connolly's $4 000 000 or Lombardi's $3.5 million and done in 1 year? Would you really want to turn down the best offer due to that minor hiccup?

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09-17-2012, 07:38 PM
  #885
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. This isn't rocket science, seanlinden... Think.
Well, that's classy.

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09-17-2012, 07:39 PM
  #886
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Originally Posted by I in the Eye View Post
Gillis isn't going to accept a salary back, if he feels that salary isn't in the best interest of the team... If Toronto needs to dump a salary, that's Toronto's problem... If the best that Toronto is offering includes a salary dump, and Gillis doesn't want a salary dump, Gillis isn't going to trade Luongo to Toronto... Another offer will be deemed better... The Canucks are in win-now mode... Poor roster players with bad salaries hurts this (the Canucks are a good, deep team with, by and large, great salaries throughout)... Gillis isn't going to trade Luongo for a return that hurts Vancouver... This isn't rocket science, seanlinden... Think.
Gillis is going trade Luongo for the package that's in the best interest of his team... like you said, this shouldn't be rocket science. If he wants to gain the greatest amount & quality of futures he can, he'll likely have to take salary in the deal as well.

The key is finding salary that addresses a need, where the Canucks actually desire such a player, while dealing said player makes it possible for the other team to offer a better overall package for the Canucks. In a completely hypothetical scenario (not saying either team would do it), Lombardi & Kadri would be a much better deal for the Canucks than Carter Ashton.

Remember, the Canucks are in win-now mode, they want players who can help them win immediately. Idle cap space doesn't score goals, check the opponent, etc.

If he's in a position where he needs to clear $6-7m in salary to get under the new cap, obviously he's going to be quite adverse to taking salary back... but in that same scenario, he's going to be in an extremely difficult position trying to shed all that salary, because there will be many other teams who need to do it too.


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09-17-2012, 07:42 PM
  #887
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Originally Posted by smoke meat pete View Post
Are you really so concerned with Connolly's $4 000 000 or Lombardi's $3.5 million and done in 1 year? Would you really want to turn down the best offer due to that minor hiccup?
Kadri + a 1st isn't all that overwhelming to me, when considering the Canucks would no longer have Luongo... I'd absolutely be prepared to leave it, if I was Gillis... The UFA market seems to be pretty good next year... A good player might be had at the deadline, that you couldn't get if Connolly's or Lombardi's contracts are on board... I want the Canucks to win the cup... To be in the best position to win the cup... Connolly or Lombardi doesn't do it for me...

Are you really so concerned with their salaries still on your team (or sent elsewhere), if it cost you getting Luongo?

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09-17-2012, 07:47 PM
  #888
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Are you really so concerned with their salaries still on your team (or sent elsewhere), if it cost you getting Luongo?
I far more excited by Kadri and the insurance package of our 1st round pick for this year and years after than I am about Luongo for a couple of years. I hate Luongo's contract and I don't want to pay to get it. I certainly don't want to pay much to get him especially if the cap goes down.

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09-17-2012, 07:47 PM
  #889
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Well, that's classy.
Good tone from me is earned... It's not a gift I give to everyone...

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I far more excited by Kadri and the insurance package of our 1st round pick for this year and years after than I am about Luongo for a couple of years. I hate Luongo's contract and I don't want to pay to get it. I certainly don't want to pay much to get him especially if the cap goes down.
That's great, then... Toronto doesn't need Luongo... and Vancouver doesn't need to send Luongo to Toronto...

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09-17-2012, 07:50 PM
  #890
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Kadri + a 1st isn't all that overwhelming to me, when considering the Canucks would no longer have Luongo... I'd absolutely be prepared to leave it, if I was Gillis... The UFA market seems to be pretty good next year... A good player might be had at the deadline, that you couldn't get if Connolly's or Lombardi's contracts are on board... I want the Canucks to win the cup... To be in the best position to win the cup... Connolly or Lombardi doesn't do it for me...

Are you really so concerned with their salaries still on your team (or sent elsewhere), if it cost you getting Luongo?
You don't seem to understand the very basic concept that every player has a market value... first, we'll ignore the argument over Kadri + a 1st (it's not gonna happen, and really isn't relevant to the conversation).

If the cap goes down significantly, the Leafs would have to clear salary to add Luongo. That will be a guy like Matt Lombardi. There's likely going to be quite a few teams who need to clear salary if the Leafs do, Vancouver included. All of a sudden, there becomes a greatly increased value in immediate cap space, relative to any player with a contract. Luongo's value falls, as does Lombardi's (with the $70m cap, he's got value). If Vancouver isn't willing to take him, and it costs the Leafs to get rid of him elsewhere, that's going to be reflected in the price the Leafs are willing to pay. That effect will likely be slightly greater than Lombardi's value because of the uncertainty that the Leafs have to deal with. Same goes regardless of what team you're dealing with. Hence why the key is finding salary that's associated with a player the Canucks actually have use for this year.

Every player in this league has a value to each team, and they're not worth more than it.

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09-17-2012, 07:53 PM
  #891
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That's great, then... Toronto doesn't need Luongo... and Vancouver doesn't need to send Luongo to Toronto...
Well, that's all possible. I do think the Leafs have some decent NHL players who could help you win a cup now who are available, but their value seems to get marginalized, so not much point trying to discuss them. There is a win/win in there somewhere, but it's all been discussed before.

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09-17-2012, 07:53 PM
  #892
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Gillis is going trade Luongo for the package that's in the best interest of his team... like you said, this shouldn't be rocket science. If he wants to gain the greatest amount & quality of futures he can, he'll likely have to take salary in the deal as well.

The key is finding salary that addresses a need, where the Canucks actually desire such a player, while dealing said player makes it possible for the other team to offer a better overall package for the Canucks. In a completely hypothetical scenario (not saying either team would do it), Lombardi & Kadri would be a much better deal for the Canucks than Carter Ashton.

Remember, the Canucks are in win-now mode, they want players who can help them win immediately. Idle cap space doesn't score goals, check the opponent, etc.

If he's in a position where he needs to clear $6-7m in salary to get under the new cap, obviously he's going to be quite adverse to taking salary back... but in that same scenario, he's going to be in an extremely difficult position trying to shed all that salary, because there will be many other teams who need to do it too.
The thing is... Kadri + a 1st isn't the greatest amount & quality of futures he can get, IMO... There are questions around Kadri as a prospect... I can agree that if Bjugstad + 1st was on the table, different story... Kadri doesn't make it worth sacrificing the present for... I'd take the chance on virtually the same roster (minus Luongo) that was one game short of winning the Stanley Cup...

I am in no hurry to trade Luongo... and Gillis isn't either...

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09-17-2012, 07:56 PM
  #893
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The thing is... Kadri + a 1st isn't the greatest amount & quality of futures he can, IMO... There are questions around Kadri as a prospect... I can agree that if Bjugstad + 1st was on the table, different story... Kadri doesn't make it worth sacrificing the present for... I'd take the chance on virtually the same roster (minus Luongo) that was one game short of winning the Stanley Cup...
The thing is Kadri + a 1st is so far beyond what will get offered for Luongo... that it's not even worth discussing... I suspect Florida fans will say the same with Bjugstad. You're just not in touch with reality.

Anyways, like you mentioned, Canucks are in win-now mode. They'll primarily be looking to satisfy needs on their NHL roster (centre, scoring depth), while the youth is secondary. No team who's in win-now mode is going to trade for futures and to leave a boatload of cap space wide open. They'll trade for futures if they have to clear salary to get under the cap, or address other needs on the roster. Again, reality.

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09-17-2012, 08:01 PM
  #894
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The thing is Kadri + a 1st is so far beyond what will get offered for Luongo... that it's not even worth discussing... I suspect Florida fans will say the same with Bjugstad. You're just not in touch with reality.

Anyways, like you mentioned, Canucks are in win-now mode. They'll primarily be looking to satisfy needs on their NHL roster (centre, scoring depth), while the youth is secondary.
The thing is, we are all just speculating his value at this point. So please don't preach as if this is fact.

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09-17-2012, 08:02 PM
  #895
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The thing is Kadri + a 1st is so far beyond what will get offered for Luongo... that it's not even worth discussing... I suspect Florida fans will say the same with Bjugstad. You're just not in touch with reality.

Anyways, like you mentioned, Canucks are in win-now mode. They'll primarily be looking to satisfy needs on their NHL roster (centre, scoring depth), while the youth is secondary.
I'm betting that Petrovic+ would be offered for Luongo... and Petrovic is exactly what our team needs... Florida is also in a position to trade Petrovic... Toronto probably isn't in a position to trade Kadri (probably, given Toronto's prospect depth)... Toronto isn't getting Luongo... because, IMO, Luongo will return a prospect better than Kadri, yet lower than Bjugstad, which is something that Florida can afford to give up... I don't think Toronto can get Luongo... If being asked to accept a salary dump, that's a double no...

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09-17-2012, 08:05 PM
  #896
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I'm betting that Petrovic+ would be offered for Luongo... and Petrovic is exactly what our team needs... Florida is also in a position to trade Petrovic... Toronto probably isn't in a position to trade Kadri (probably, given Toronto's prospect depth)... Toronto isn't getting Luongo... because, IMO, Luongo will return a prospect better than Kadri, yet lower than Bjugstad, which is something that Toronto can afford to give up... I don't think Toronto can get Luongo... If being asked to accept a salary dump, that's a double no...
I think the only way Vancouver accepts a salary dump if they are also offered a player they cannot refuse, like Bjugstad+salary dump. But the notion that in order for a trade to be worked would have to include a salary dump is ridiculous. I feel as if Luongo's value is higher than that.

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09-17-2012, 08:07 PM
  #897
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Anyways, like you mentioned, Canucks are in win-now mode. They'll primarily be looking to satisfy needs on their NHL roster (centre, scoring depth), while the youth is secondary. No team who's in win-now mode is going to trade for futures and to leave a boatload of cap space wide open. They'll trade for futures if they have to clear salary to get under the cap, or address other needs on the roster. Again, reality.
Prospects and picks can't be traded at the deadline under the new CBA - armed with a boatload of cap space to take advantage of? Is that what you are expecting?

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09-17-2012, 08:10 PM
  #898
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The thing is, we are all just speculating his value at this point. So please don't preach as if this is fact.
Yeah we are -- but the fact is that deal doesn't make sense for the Leafs even under the current CBA, and there just isn't a way that a new CBA is going to be friendlier than this one. The players have already agreed to a substantially smaller portion of revenue, and the owners to not rolling back player salaries.

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I'm betting that Petrovic+ would be offered for Luongo... and Petrovic is exactly what our team needs... Florida is also in a position to trade Petrovic... Toronto probably isn't in a position to trade Kadri (probably, given Toronto's prospect depth)... Toronto isn't getting Luongo... because, IMO, Luongo will return a prospect better than Kadri, yet lower than Bjugstad, which is something that Florida can afford to give up... I don't think Toronto can get Luongo... If being asked to accept a salary dump, that's a double no...
Any panthers fans want to chime in on that one?

From a Canuck perspective, a 20 year old defenceman certainly isn't what a win-now team needs. Heck, even if you equate Petrovic and Kadri, there's no way the Panthers are going to part with their 1st as well. They do not have enough talented young players on their roster to make that kind of move. Sure, they've got a marginally stronger prospect system than Toronto, but their roster is pretty much baren when it comes to young NHL players with upside.

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Prospects and picks can't be traded at the deadline under the new CBA - armed with a boatload of cap space to take advantage of? Is that what you are expecting?
They can, but they get grossly undervalued at that time and talent gets a premium placed on it. You don't need $4-5m of space to work with at the deadline because it's just not realistic to make that big of a splash.. You need $1-2m.

The Canucks will leave the $1-2m like most good teams do. What they're not going to do is collect youth at the beginning of the season, leaving their roster with obvious holes in it for the majority of the year, and then get pennies on the dollar (relatively) for that youth when they try to fill holes at the deadline. It's terrible asset management, and not something that the Canucks can afford to do considering how weak their pool of prospects is.

They're especially not going to do it in an offseason where there are likely going to be many teams shedding salary.

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09-17-2012, 08:14 PM
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From a Canuck perspective, a 20 year old defenceman certainly isn't what a win-now team needs. Heck, even if you equate Petrovic and Kadri, there's no way the Panthers are going to part with their 1st as well. They do not have enough talented young players on their roster to make that kind of move. Sure, they've got a marginally stronger prospect system than Toronto, but their roster is pretty much baren when it comes to young NHL players with upside.



They can, but they get grossly undervalued at that time and talent gets a premium placed on it. You don't need $4-5m of space to work with at the deadline because it's just not realistic to make that big of a splash.. You need $1-2m.
Canucks don't necessarily need to improve their top 6 forward group or add a top 6 defender in the Luongo trade. If Vancouver gets futures, Gillis will have more wiggle room at the trade deadline to address his roster, which i'm sure he's be happy with.

Where did you get the idea Gillis needs an improvement on the roster in a Luongo trade? By saying 'different' it seemed obvious he was willing to accept a futures package.

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09-17-2012, 08:17 PM
  #900
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Canucks don't necessarily need to improve their top 6 forward group or add a top 6 defender in the Luongo trade. If Vancouver gets futures, Gillis will have more wiggle room at the trade deadline to address his roster, which i'm sure he's be happy with.

Where did you get the idea Gillis needs an improvement on the roster in a Luongo trade? By saying 'different' it seemed obvious he was willing to accept a futures package.
As mentioned, teams shoot for that $1-2m in wiggle room because it generally means $4-6m come the deadline. Doesn't make sense to overpay for futures in the offseason, then trade them for pennies on the dollar at the deadline when you have the cap space to pay them the whole year.

He may have to accept a futures trade to address a lower cap. What did the players last proposal call for in terms of this year's cap anyways?

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