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2013 NHL Draft in case of Lockout

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Old
09-17-2012, 11:04 AM
  #151
Huffer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Viqsi View Post
I opted to just figure it for everybody, since I just happened to have points percentage charts already open for unrelated reasons.



Results so far:
3 balls - Columbus, Edmonton, Long Island, Winnipeg
2 balls - Carolina, Colorado, Florida, LA, Minnesota, Ottawa, Tampa Bay, Toronto
1 ball - Everyone else.



3 balls added to Edmonton, Long Island, Toronto, Winnipeg.
2 balls added to Columbus, Dallas, Florida, Minnesota, Tampa Bay
1 ball added to Buffalo, Calgary, Carolina, Colorado, St. Louis
All else lose 1 ball per the rules below.*



1st overall picks: Long Island, Tampa Bay, Edmonton (x3).
3+ playoff appearances: see above.
Stanley Cups: Detroit, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Boston, LA.



Based on this system...
6 balls (9.1% chance of 1st overall): Winnipeg
5 balls (7.5%): Columbus, Long Island, Toronto
4 balls (6.1%): Florida, Minnesota
3 balls (4.5%): Carolina, Colorado, Dallas, Tampa Bay, Edmonton
2 balls (3%): Buffalo, Calgary, St. Louis
1 ball (1.5%): Ottawa
"0 balls" (actually 1): Anaheim, Montreal, Nashville, New Jersey, New York (owned by CBJ), Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Jose, Vancouver, Washington.
"-1 balls" (actually 1): Los Angeles (owned by CBJ)
"-2 balls" (actually 1): Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Pittsburgh
GRAND TOTAL: 66 balls.

I opted to explicitly include the ones that dropped below 1 just to show the effect some of the penalties have. Technically those last four categories are all "1 ball".

We'd have what amounts to 7 balls (10.6%) under this system thanks to having LA's and New York's picks. Basically, our odds of getting the 1st overall don't change much at all - we were at about 9.8%, and we're barely a full percentage point higher (which is an improvement, but having recently lost a 50/50 draw and having a history of losing draft lotteries, this is not cause for celebration among Jackets fans ).

The chances for a few other teams, tho, are somewhat better. Compare and contrast with the "standard lottery" chances as calculated by Ashasx earlier in this thread in post #5: http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...87&postcount=5

Hopefully this is enlightening.


*: I was considering suggesting having 4+ playoff appearances be the cutoff for losing one ball instead of 3+ - that would mean Anaheim, Phoenix, and Ottawa don't "lose" balls for having 3 playoff appearances. Only Ottawa is substantively affected, though - they'd have had 2 balls otherwise.
As a Jet fan I like this system .

Someone send it to the league.

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09-17-2012, 11:20 AM
  #152
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If Toronto does not have the most balls in the lottery (I mean at least tied for the most balls in the lottery) than the system is flawed

People will accuse me of being a homer but I don't care we have the league's longest playoffless drought and the longest cupless drought we deserve at least some good news at some point

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09-17-2012, 11:36 AM
  #153
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wow! thanks viqsi! thats awesome you got all the numbers. and it may be because its my system so i my be biased but i prefer the way the %'s worked out in my system than the current one, weighted much more towards teams like winnipeg, columbus, nyi, toronto, Minnesota (regardless of their offseason), florida, and several others that have struggled for some time now. their percentages went up more. thanks viqsi! i personally think either columbus, winnipeg (even tho theyre a divisional rival), or toronto deserve the #1 overall. being a panthers fan (as well as a dolphins and marlins fan) i know what its like to be bad for a long time, so i always want, in all sports, the bad teams to improve, i was hoping so badly columbus was gonna get that #1 last year and i was pissed they didn't, i always hope the bad teams get high picks (unless theyve had countless high draft picks).

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09-17-2012, 01:01 PM
  #154
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Originally Posted by Hynh View Post
By the time the Penguin fans came along they were already good and thus deserving of being cocky. The Oilers still suck despite upward trends. Imagine how annoying it would be to hear Pens fans constantly proclaim Armstrong, Malkin, Whitney and MAF as gods before any of them played a full season. That's the stage the Oilers are in.
where were they before they "came along"?

and that is your opinion only of certain Oilers fans, not the fans in general.

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09-17-2012, 01:06 PM
  #155
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Smallz View Post
If Toronto does not have the most balls in the lottery (I mean at least tied for the most balls in the lottery) than the system is flawed

People will accuse me of being a homer but I don't care we have the league's longest playoffless drought and the longest cupless drought we deserve at least some good news at some point
excuse me? "deserve" to be rewarded for one of the longest futility streaks in NHL history? how do you figure?

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09-17-2012, 01:20 PM
  #156
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excuse me? "deserve" to be rewarded for one of the longest futility streaks in NHL history? how do you figure?
If the Leafs don't deserve the best odds in the lottery than who does? The lottery is supposed to favour the bad teams right? The Leafs have been pretty ****ing bad so it makes sense to me. Did you actually read my entire post because I clearly said that we should only be tied for the best odds not have the best by ourselves.

I bet your one of the those people that thinks the Oilers "deserve" to have the most balls in the lottery as well - if it was up to me Edmonton would have 0 balls, nothing against Edmonton I would have done the same to Quebec in the 90s after they picked 1st 3 times in a row

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09-17-2012, 01:29 PM
  #157
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Originally Posted by Smallz View Post
If the Leafs don't deserve the best odds in the lottery than who does? The lottery is supposed to favour the bad teams right? The Leafs have been pretty ****ing bad so it makes sense to me. Did you actually read my entire post because I clearly said that we should only be tied for the best odds not have the best by ourselves.

I bet your one of the those people that thinks the Oilers "deserve" to have the most balls in the lottery as well - if it was up to me Edmonton would have 0 balls, nothing against Edmonton I would have done the same to Quebec in the 90s after they picked 1st 3 times in a row
Columbus.
yes i did.
what the Oilers "deserve" is to get what they are allowed to get under NHL rules, and they have done so, whether you think it's fair or not and think that the Oil should get "zero" balls because you don't think it's fair.

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09-17-2012, 01:41 PM
  #158
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Originally Posted by ManByng View Post
Columbus.
yes i did.
what the Oilers "deserve" is to get what they are allowed to get under NHL rules, and they have done so, whether you think it's fair or not and think that the Oil should get "zero" balls because you don't think it's fair.
For the third time now - I never said the Leafs should have the sole best odds in the lottery, I said they should be ONE of the teams with the best odds in the lottery Considering that we have the longest playoffless drought going I don't know why you think that is so absurd

And please tell me when I cried about something being unfair? All I said was is that's what I would do and I even said I would have done it to Quebec in the 90s too.

You say you're reading my posts but I don't think you are truly grasping what is actually being said

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09-17-2012, 06:13 PM
  #159
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where were they before they "came along"?

and that is your opinion only of certain Oilers fans, not the fans in general.
Pittsburgh is a fair weather city. They were going to move before they got Lemieux, they were going to move before they got Crosby. Look at the bottom of the league. Compare with now.
Oilers during their crapfest.

I think the average fan pretty annoying. calling them "our kids" is wrong. Of course, there are exceptions (typically regulars) but modesty is in short supply.

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09-17-2012, 06:48 PM
  #160
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so the league may go by number of balls? and whether or not the team made the playoffs in previous seasons, well as a wild fan i like that idea. as long as the nhl doesnt rig it

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09-17-2012, 08:12 PM
  #161
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What about a 2 part system
* numbers of balls based on success (1) and suck (3).

* The catch is entry is determined by your already received rewards. The greater the rewards you have received already the latter you are allowed enter the draft. random numbers
#1 picks : 2012 +4, 2011 +3, 2010 +2, 2009 +1
Stanley cups: 2012 +20, 2011 +15, 2010 +10
PTs: 2012 +4 2011 +3 2010 +2 2009 +1

Edmonton sucks so they get 3 balls. OTOH they got rewarded with 3 #1 overall picks, so they would get +4+3+2=+9 handicap. Their 3 balls go just before the #10 pick is drawn.

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09-17-2012, 08:33 PM
  #162
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Originally Posted by Smallz View Post
If the Leafs don't deserve the best odds in the lottery than who does? The lottery is supposed to favour the bad teams right? The Leafs have been pretty ****ing bad so it makes sense to me. Did you actually read my entire post because I clearly said that we should only be tied for the best odds not have the best by ourselves.

I bet your one of the those people that thinks the Oilers "deserve" to have the most balls in the lottery as well - if it was up to me Edmonton would have 0 balls, nothing against Edmonton I would have done the same to Quebec in the 90s after they picked 1st 3 times in a row
If done the same way as 2005, Columbus would have the most balls due to acquiring a pick from both LA and NYR in the draft. Thus, they have 5 balls vs. Toronto's 3 balls, giving them better odds. I don't see how that's unfair in the very least though. And I don't see how Toronto deserves to win it (or get top 5) any more than them (not saying that they shouldn't, but I mean come on, why do the Leafs of all teams deserve the best odds over a team like Columbus?).

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09-17-2012, 09:38 PM
  #163
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Originally Posted by me2 View Post
What about a 2 part system
* numbers of balls based on success (1) and suck (3).

* The catch is entry is determined by your already received rewards. The greater the rewards you have received already the latter you are allowed enter the draft. random numbers
#1 picks : 2012 +4, 2011 +3, 2010 +2, 2009 +1
Stanley cups: 2012 +20, 2011 +15, 2010 +10
PTs: 2012 +4 2011 +3 2010 +2 2009 +1

Edmonton sucks so they get 3 balls. OTOH they got rewarded with 3 #1 overall picks, so they would get +4+3+2=+9 handicap. Their 3 balls go just before the #10 pick is drawn.
man people whine a lot about 3 #1 picks in a row....'cept if it were to happen to your team, then it's ok.

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09-17-2012, 09:42 PM
  #164
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Originally Posted by Smallz View Post
If the Leafs don't deserve the best odds in the lottery than who does? The lottery is supposed to favour the bad teams right? The Leafs have been pretty ****ing bad so it makes sense to me. Did you actually read my entire post because I clearly said that we should only be tied for the best odds not have the best by ourselves.

I bet your one of the those people that thinks the Oilers "deserve" to have the most balls in the lottery as well - if it was up to me Edmonton would have 0 balls, nothing against Edmonton I would have done the same to Quebec in the 90s after they picked 1st 3 times in a row
Quote:
Originally Posted by PayItForward View Post
If done the same way as 2005, Columbus would have the most balls due to acquiring a pick from both LA and NYR in the draft. Thus, they have 5 balls vs. Toronto's 3 balls, giving them better odds. I don't see how that's unfair in the very least though. And I don't see how Toronto deserves to win it (or get top 5) any more than them (not saying that they shouldn't, but I mean come on, why do the Leafs of all teams deserve the best odds over a team like Columbus?).
they don't, but Leaf fans are that desperate to win a cup that they'll try anything. they seem envious as well about the Oilers getting 3 #1 picks in a row.


Last edited by ManByng: 09-17-2012 at 09:49 PM.
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09-17-2012, 11:24 PM
  #165
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well of course if it were our teams then we would all enjoy having three straight 1st overall picks, theres nothing to dislike about that if your the team getting them. but it gets to a point where 3 in a row kinda becomes a little ridiculous, i mean, how many 1st overalls does 1 team need? the draft is designed to help improve the weaker teams. tho the oilers have been having a very rough time the last few seasons now, those 1st overall picks now should be helping other teams that need them. and i dont think anyone is envious of them getting 3 in a row, i just believe that they, like me, see it as unfair to the other weak teams that couldve really used a 1st overall, like columbus.

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09-18-2012, 12:46 AM
  #166
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Originally Posted by PayItForward View Post
If done the same way as 2005, Columbus would have the most balls due to acquiring a pick from both LA and NYR in the draft. Thus, they have 5 balls vs. Toronto's 3 balls, giving them better odds. I don't see how that's unfair in the very least though. And I don't see how Toronto deserves to win it (or get top 5) any more than them (not saying that they shouldn't, but I mean come on, why do the Leafs of all teams deserve the best odds over a team like Columbus?).
Obviously Columbus will actually have better odds than the Leafs in the lottery no matter what, they have 3 1st round picks. I'm talking about single team vs. single team - the CBJ and TOR picks should at the very least be equal in value, that's all I'm saying

I feel like I'm in the twilight zone

I don't see how anyone could mistake my posts especially since I laid out what I'm saying clearly 3 times. Now 4 actually

ManByng you should really learn how to read before logging onto the internet - you're just looking for a fight because of my truthful comment about the Oilers vs. the Pens which many here have backed me up on. Like come on dude we aren't in the 2nd grade you don't have to hold a grudge because you didn't like something I said. Hmmm I guess it makes sense actually, your in the 2nd grade and haven't learned to read yet - my mistake carry on and remember to look both ways before crossing the street little buddy

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09-18-2012, 12:51 AM
  #167
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Originally Posted by ManByng View Post
man people whine a lot about 3 #1 picks in a row....'cept if it were to happen to your team, then it's ok.
Canucks get +7 from 2 PTs under my system. They are excluded from picks #1 to #7 and they only get one ball when they are allowed in. Not like I'm doing them any favours

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09-18-2012, 07:32 AM
  #168
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Originally Posted by Smallz View Post
Obviously Columbus will actually have better odds than the Leafs in the lottery no matter what, they have 3 1st round picks. I'm talking about single team vs. single team - the CBJ and TOR picks should at the very least be equal in value, that's all I'm saying

I feel like I'm in the twilight zone

I don't see how anyone could mistake my posts especially since I laid out what I'm saying clearly 3 times. Now 4 actually

ManByng you should really learn how to read before logging onto the internet - you're just looking for a fight because of my truthful comment about the Oilers vs. the Pens which many here have backed me up on. Like come on dude we aren't in the 2nd grade you don't have to hold a grudge because you didn't like something I said. Hmmm I guess it makes sense actually, your in the 2nd grade and haven't learned to read yet - my mistake carry on and remember to look both ways before crossing the street little buddy
really? you resort to name calling when people don't agree with your point of view? and which one of us is in the 2nd grade?

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09-18-2012, 09:04 AM
  #169
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**** this. There is enough parity right now. Teams who actually do well can't benefit from lottery picks during a lockout? Detroit could use a top 10 pick for once. Why not just sort the draft order one by one? Put all the teams in a pot, so it's equal odds for all teams to get first overall.

/mini-rant

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09-18-2012, 09:07 AM
  #170
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really? you resort to name calling when people don't agree with your point of view? and which one of us is in the 2nd grade?
It's not name calling if its true

I'm sorry not knowing how to read isn't funny, I shouldn't be cracking jokes at your expense because I'm sure enough people in your everyday life do that already

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09-18-2012, 09:07 AM
  #171
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Originally Posted by ProPAIN View Post
**** this. There is enough parity right now. Teams who actually do well can't benefit from lottery picks during a lockout? Detroit could use a top 10 pick for once. Why not just sort the draft order one by one? Put all the teams in a pot, so it's equal odds for all teams to get first overall.

/mini-rant
Why does it make sense for the rich to get richer?

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09-18-2012, 09:41 AM
  #172
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Why does it make sense for the rich to get richer?
In a regular season, yes, it's only fair for the worst team to get a lottery pick. But after a lockout season? What if a team like Detroit would've bombed this season (shocking, I know ) and missed the playoffs with their current team? But since they had a relatively successful run the past few seasons, they don't benefit from a higher pick. After a lockout season, it makes sense that all teams get a fair shot at the number pick IMO.


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09-18-2012, 10:53 AM
  #173
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your in the 2nd grade
It's spelled "you're".

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09-18-2012, 11:13 AM
  #174
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It's not name calling if its true

I'm sorry not knowing how to read isn't funny, I shouldn't be cracking jokes at your expense because I'm sure enough people in your everyday life do that already
there's a difference between not knowing how to read and just not agreeing with you. and you can stop with the name calling, ok? grow up!!

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09-18-2012, 12:07 PM
  #175
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In a regular season, yes, it's only fair for the worst team to get a lottery pick. But after a lockout season? What if a team like Detroit would've bombed this season (shocking, I know ) and missed the playoffs with their current team? But since they had a relatively successful run the past few seasons, they don't benefit from a higher pick. After a lockout season, it makes sense that all teams get a fair shot at the number pick IMO.
So teams who we know would be bad (Columbus, Toronto, Islanders, Jets even) get shafted again in favour of teams who might have been bad but most likely wouldn't be?

Not a chance

Quote:
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It's spelled "you're".
That's what happens when you post at 8 AM in the morning on 3-4 hours sleep - I'm surprised my post wasn't worse then that

Also I just want to apologize to everyone for this bickering that's been going on between me and ManByng - I know no one wants to see/read that **** and if you re-read the entire conversation I think you will realize that I never intended for this to drag on either but he just kept trying to pick a fight with me because of truthful Pens versus Oilers comment

Anyway I don't deal with children so ManByng is on my ignore list now......I don't know why I didn't do that 2-3 posts ago but whatever it's done now


Last edited by Smallz: 09-18-2012 at 12:15 PM.
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