A friend and I were chatting last night about Lucic's new contract and he made the claim, "Well, the way he plays he might be susceptible to injury, so a three year term is good".
Has anyone looked into hits vs. games missed?
We both thought % of team hits to games missed would be the most sensible way to take a look given a team like Minnesota is consistently on top of the league in hits (likely to do a generous scorekeeper).
He throws some punishing hits, but Markov has thrown a big hit, or two himself, but he's far from physical.
Tucker's body broke down because he got drilled as much as he drilled people. That in combination with the fact that he wasn't very skilled to begin with caused for the decline of him. He was bought out by Toronto because he wasn't affective on the scoreboard. He could still agitate the **** out of the opposition by running his mouth, throw a hit, or even showing his punchable face.
Players like Neely it's hard to tell because his injuries came from Samuelsson's cheap shots. Eric Lindros' decline was from concussions because he never had to worry about anyone having no fear of hitting him and actually slowing him down/putting him on his ass until the NHL.
Shanahan was this type of player and his skill level remained relatively high throughout his career.
Wendal Clark was like this, heart and soul guy, but imo wasn't very skilled.
Rick Tocchet, and Kevin Stevens were the same. Physical guys who could put a puck in the net, but didn't have any finesse. I think both played over 1k games too.
I'm sure there were a few players who came into the league in the late 80's early 90's who could hit, fight and score and seemed to seemingly come out of nowhere and then fade away a few years later?
Gary Roberts had a long career.
A lot of physical players who scored goals faded out because their skill ran out before their body.
Lucic is more likely to become less and less of this dominating beast physically and on the scoreboard because what skill he has fades away before his body gives in.
Ovechkin is an interesting case. A guy who is tremendously skilled, but will run anyone and everyone over.
This brings to mind another question I have had for quite sometime. People tend to suggest that smaller players will get hurt more often. My background is in football and in that sport my sense is that this is not true. I see no reason to believe that it would be true in hockey either but I have never seen data one way or the other. Does anyone know if something like this has ever been studied.
I'll have a go at the 2011-12 Flyers. This will be inexact; I'm just seeing how far short of 82 games someone is, and assuming it's due to injury. I won't be discounting games missed due to illness or personal reasons, so heads up there. I'm only including full time NHLers because I don't have the time to figure out what callups/scratches missed however many games. I'm tempted to take Jagr out because he missed games due to wear and tear/age and not hitting. He probably counts as an outlier. I'm not taking raw team hits, I'm going to manually add the total hits these players accumulated and call it the team total.
I don't know how to make tables, but the format is: Player HitsPerGame %Teamhits GamesMissed %Teamgames missed. Total games missed based on my lazy formula: 192, Team Hits: 1437
There you go. It's not sorted in any logical way, and it's imprecise; I'm not positive if it's useful or not. Draw what conclusions you will or can.
I think this would be more useful if it took hits taken and Time On Ice into account as well. It'd be even more useful looking at each player's careers.
Edit: I don't think there's anything conclusive here; if anything this looks contradictory at first glance. You've got Hartnell, Coburn, Simmonds, and Talbot with a high number of hits per game, and the 4 of them missed 2 games total. On the other hand, you've got Pronger, Schenn, Mez with high hit totals as well, and a a lot of games missed. So what makes those groups different? That's where I think we'd need to look at TOI and hits taken, and possibly age/hits taken per career. I'll let someone else do that, I want to go play video games. I'm going to guess nothing definitive shows up.
Also of note...Pronger's injury this year was very fluky; but he did also miss a lot of games in the previous season. Overall, I don't think hits given has nearly as much impact as hits taken; as in any sport, it's far easier to give a hit than it is to absorb one.
Down in the basement, I've got a Craftsman lathe. Show it to the children when they misbehave.
Last edited by Beef Invictus: 09-18-2012 at 09:57 PM.
Are you guys talking about the percentage of hits over an entire season? [In other words: (number of players hits in a season) divided by (total number of team's hits in a season)]
If that's the case, I think it's a bad analysis.
The premise is that the more hits a player dishes, the more likely he is to become injured.
It's a good premise, but if he becomes injured, he won't accumulate hits while he misses games. Meanwhile his teammates will continue to rack up hits, and their "percentage of total team hits" values relative to his will increase and his percentage will be disproportionately low.
A better gauge would be to determine a player's "percentage of team hits" relative to only the games he actually plays in a season, then rank the entire rosters based on that stat. And view the games played/missed stat in that context.
That's what I did; I originally started compiling total hits and realized that doesn't work out, so I went with hits per game so injury time doesn't make the total look smaller than it otherwise would be.
I would also like to see the correlation between hits taken and games missed. Some injured players have stigmas of simply "being made of glass", e.g. getting hurt from minimal amounts/instances of contact. Meanwhile there are also commonly injured players that are hurt because they simply aren't necessarily being hit a lot, but the magnitude of the hits they did take completely derailed them (Suter on Kariya, Stevens on Lindros).
Then there are guys like Holmstrom that take tons of abuse and rarely miss a game.