HFBoards

Go Back   HFBoards > NHL Eastern Conference > Atlantic Division > Montreal Canadiens
Notices

Kristo will fit nicely with the Habs and Montréal (suspended 1 game)

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old
09-20-2012, 06:31 AM
  #76
Prust Y U MAD Bruins*
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 78
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by YourBuddy View Post
I played University hockey, the difference between me Kristo and the other 90% of University players is Kristo and his gang got caught, we didn't.
That's why 90 % of university players don't make it to the NHL. Kristo will join you with his entire gang soon and he will be another statistic.

Some have discipline and some don't.


Last edited by Prust Y U MAD Bruins*: 09-20-2012 at 06:41 AM.
Prust Y U MAD Bruins* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-20-2012, 06:46 AM
  #77
Mike8
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 11,093
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiskeySeven View Post
All I'm asking - especially from you guys who like to take personal shots at me - is a couple of notable examples of players who stuck through their college career entirely and still managed to have NHL careers. Because the way I see it, you're all sticking your heads in the sand and saying "well he could be good, you never know" when there is a giant mountain of evidence against Kirsto himself and against his odds of making it as a 23 year old.

So please, humour me.
John Madden, Jay Pandolfo, Chris Drury, Brian Gionta, Rob Scuderi, Mike Mottau, Brian Rafalski (who later did 4-5 years in Europe), Tim Thomas, etc.

Then there are plenty of others who did only 3 years of NCAA after 1 year of USHL, and turned pro at 23 years of age (same age that Kristo will). Erik Cole is one that'd fall under this scenario.

I don't really understand your vantage point at all. There's a ton of players who have gone through development leagues (non-pro) to a late age and had successful careers. Your assertion that this is somehow a rarity and a virtually insurmountable obstacle for Kristo is, well, peculiar.

Mike8 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-20-2012, 06:47 AM
  #78
Mike8
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 11,093
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prust Y U MAD Bruins View Post
That's why 90 % of university players don't make it to the NHL. Kristo will join you with his entire gang soon and he will be another statistic.

Some have discipline and some don't.
While one never wants to hear that a prospect is caught drinking and partying (especially multiple times), I don't think there's any correlation between being caught partying a couple of times and overall discipline or capacity to make the NHL.

Mike8 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-20-2012, 06:55 AM
  #79
Boris Le Tigre
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
 
Boris Le Tigre's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: More Toast !
Country: Vatican City State
Posts: 5,387
vCash: 500
Kristo's skating will get him to the NHL. He already has elite speed and quickness... even if he only becomes Tom Chorske-like he will be a useful player. He could probably play drunk if he wanted still cover a lot of ground on the penalty kill or catch people on the back check and forecheck...

guys who can skate like him get the proverbial "get out of jail" free card when it comes to mistake recovery... the mental part of the game is still important but maybe not as important for a guy with skating like that (the better he learns though the better he will become).

Boris Le Tigre is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-20-2012, 07:08 AM
  #80
Sam I Am
Registered User
 
Sam I Am's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 1,299
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiskeySeven View Post
Okay I found the time
...Kristo is the topic at hand. I'm not arguing on speculation, I'm being pretty reasonable as it is. He's 22, he'll be 23 at the youngest when he even might make the pro-leagues - and even with a low estimate of one season that means he'll be 24 when he can ruffle feathers at training camp. 24 is old, 24 is how old Crosby was this past season, 608 points deep into his career.

Now Kristo is no Crosby but I'm bringing him up because he's the idealized prospect. Kristo will be at least 24 when he breaks into the NHL - there is such a tiny, insignificant possibility of him even making it at that age, with such little progression that it's fair to call him a long-shot/likely bust. Food for thought: Ben Maxwell, that ol' bust, is the same age as Kristo.

Now I don't care about Kristo's personal development or his intentions of getting a degree and establishing his future finances or whatever - all I see is a failing prospect. Those 17 years olds are 17, and they didn't get caught. Kristo is at an age where he's supposed to really make significant NHL-worthy progression and he DID get caught. Twice. At least.

How can I, as a Habs fan, not be annoyed at a wasted prospect?
Not sure why this post has received so much flack. Kristo may buck the odds. As has been pointed out, Gionta, Cole and others have done it before. But make no mistake: as a 23-year-old arriving in his first pro camp next year, the odds will be long.

Add to that, the "dumb f--k factor" of which evidence is steadily mounting (unlike Gionta or Cole!) and the fact that Kristo is still not under contract and will be a UFA at the end of the season, and "wasted" may not be much of an overstatement.


Last edited by Sam I Am: 09-20-2012 at 07:14 AM.
Sam I Am is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-20-2012, 09:35 AM
  #81
MasterDecoy
Carlos Danger
 
MasterDecoy's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Beijing
Posts: 9,610
vCash: 1707
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam I Am View Post
Not sure why this post has received so much flack. Kristo may buck the odds. As has been pointed out, Gionta, Cole and others have done it before. But make no mistake: as a 23-year-old arriving in his first pro camp next year, the odds will be long.

Add to that, the "dumb f--k factor" of which evidence is steadily mounting (unlike Gionta or Cole!) and the fact that Kristo is still not under contract and will be a UFA at the end of the season, and "wasted" may not be much of an overstatement.
im not as negative as whiskey, but i definitely agree on the dumb **** part. seriously, what a ******....

MasterDecoy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-20-2012, 09:36 AM
  #82
montreal
Go Habs Go
 
montreal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Country: Balearic Islands
Posts: 23,290
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by macavoy View Post
Is Kristo not a FA if he doesn't sign a contract with us by July 1st?
My question to you, is why would you make a statement about Kristo when you clearly don't know what the rules are. I'm just curious as to why people on this site make statements when they don't even know what the rules are, wouldn't it be better to ask what the rules are first so you know before making statements.

So often on this board over the years I continue to see people say this or that about prospects when they clearly don't even know what the rules are, which imo makes it hard to take someone seriously. I know this is directed at you but I want to address this to everyone since I can't count the number of times I've read various posters state incorrect facts.


Here's how it works in the NCAA. If you are drafted and at going to play in the NCAA there are two things that happen. One, the player goes directly to the NCAA the following season after being drafted. This is known as being a true Freshman, and the NHL team has to sign you after the player completes 4 years, he must be signed before August 15th or he will become a UFA. The second thing that can happen is instead of going directly to the NCAA, said draft pick spends the following season after being drafted outside of the NCAA. This could be any league that isn't considered pro by the NCAA, so USHL, USHS, BCHL, etc.... Once that happens, there is a loop hole that after said players 3rd season in the NCAA he can opt to become a UFA on July 1st but in order to due so he has to do two things, one is he must inform the NHL team that selected him that he wishes to become a UFA, he must due so before June 1st. The second is that he will let the school know that he will not be returning to the NCAA for his senior year.

If a NCAA draft pick that is eligible to become a UFA after their junior year opts NOT to become a UFA, then that loop hole is forever closed, meaning he can only sign with the team that drafted him and can NOT become a UFA unless of course the NHL team in question doesn't want to sign him. So Kristo has no options but to sign with the Habs, unless of course he wants out of hockey, maybe to run his own bar. If he wants to play in the NHL he has to sign with the Habs.

Here's the list of players that can opt out of signing with the Habs after their Junior year,

Mac Bennett- (Junior) He can opt out as long as he informs the Habs before June 1st, 2013, if he doesn't do so by then he can only sign with the Habs.

Mark MacMillan- (Sophmore) He can opt out as long as he informs the Habs before June 1st, 2014, if he doesn't do so by then he can only sign with the Habs.

Colin Sullivan- (Freshman) He can opt out as long as he informs the Habs before June 1st, 2015, if he doesn't do so by then he can only sign with the Habs.

The remaining NCAA draft picks, Dustin Walsh, Danny Kristo, Mike Cichy, and Josiah Didier all can NOT use the loop hole so they can only sign with the Habs.

montreal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-20-2012, 09:41 AM
  #83
maryannshabs*
 
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 27
vCash: 500
Habs Prospects

Quote:
Originally Posted by Seb View Post
http://www.radio-canada.ca/sports/ho...suspendu.shtml

It basically says that he's suspended for 1 game because he partied too much.
I cringe every time I think about the Habs foward prospects we've drafted over the ast decade.

maryannshabs* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-20-2012, 10:09 AM
  #84
MasterDecoy
Carlos Danger
 
MasterDecoy's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Beijing
Posts: 9,610
vCash: 1707
Quote:
Originally Posted by montreal View Post
My question to you, is why would you make a statement about Kristo when you clearly don't know what the rules are. I'm just curious as to why people on this site make statements when they don't even know what the rules are, wouldn't it be better to ask what the rules are first so you know before making statements.
thanks for explaining the rule so clearly.

but im pretty sure the --> ? <-- at the end of his statement meant he was asking a question, no need to get snippy about it

MasterDecoy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-20-2012, 10:10 AM
  #85
Mike8
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 11,093
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam I Am View Post
Not sure why this post has received so much flack. Kristo may buck the odds. As has been pointed out, Gionta, Cole and others have done it before. But make no mistake: as a 23-year-old arriving in his first pro camp next year, the odds will be long.

Add to that, the "dumb f--k factor" of which evidence is steadily mounting (unlike Gionta or Cole!) and the fact that Kristo is still not under contract and will be a UFA at the end of the season, and "wasted" may not be much of an overstatement.
I don't see why the 'odds would be long.' What are the odds, exactly?

Let's take a look. Let's comb through all NCAA picks. Let's note the year that they turned pro. I'd like to set the criteria for this: look only at players drafted in the top 2 rounds (as such, they had considerable expectations placed on them). However, I'm going to asterisk any players who were unsuccessful at the NCAA level. Those players are incomparable to Kristo.

Essentially, Kristo compares to any solid to good NCAA prospect. We want to see just how: a) rare Kristo's situation is; b) how insurmountable this obstacle is -- the obstacle being Kristo turning pro at 23 years old.

I'd *like* to find the good prospects picked later in the draft that fit the criteria, but that's a lot of players to look through, hence the top-2 round criteria. Also, obvious ommissions are players who signed as UFAs (Madden, Thomas, Rafalski) as those are outliers and, frankly, late bloomers--something which Kristo obviously is not, given his high profile in his draft year and relative success in the NCAA.

* Note: I will also omit players who only played 1 season in the NCAA. Just not comparable to Kristo.
* Note II: also omitted are players drafted top-5.

1st rounders
Jake Gardiner (21) - 3 yrs
Colin Wilson (20) - 3 yrs
Joe Colborne (20) - 3 yrs
Dalton Leveille (22 -- presumably)) -- bust in NCAA - 4 yrs
Ryan McDonagh (21) - 3 yrs
Kevin Shattenkirk (21) - 3 yrs
Ian Cole (21) - 3 yrs
Riley Nash (21) - 3 yrs
Patrick White (never) - 4 yrs - bust in NCAA
Brendan Smith (21) - 3 yrs
Nick Petrecki (20) - 2 yrs
2006
Mark Mitera (22) - 4 yrs -- bust
David Fischer (22) - 4 yrs -- busted in NCAA
Chris Summers (22) - 4 yrs -- breaking into NHL
2005
Jack Skille (20) - 2 yrs - bust
Brian Lee (20) - 2 yrs - bust-ish
Sasha Pokulok (20) - 2 yrs - bust
TJ Oshie (22) - 3 yrs
Joe Finley (22) - 4 yrs - bust in NCAA
Matt Niskanen (21) - 2 yrs
2004
Drew Stafford (21) - 3 yrs
Travis Zajac (21) - 2 yrs
Kris Chucko - (21) - 2 yrs - bust
2003
Mark Stuart (21) - 3 yrs
Brian Boyle (23) - 4 yrs
Jeff Tambellini (21) - 3 yrs
Patrick Eaves (21) - 3 yrs
2002
Eric Nystrom (22) - 4 yrs - bust (disappointment in NCAA)
Keith Ballard (22) - 3 yrs
Chris Higgins (20) - 2 yrs
Mike Morris (24) - 4 yrs - bust in NCAA
Jim Slater (23) - 4 yrs - made NHL right out of NCAA
2001
Mike Komisarek (20) - 2 yrs
David Steckel (22) - 4 yrs
2000
Ron Hainsey (20) - 2 yrs
Brooks Orpik (21) - 3 yrs
Krys Kolanos (20) - 2 yrs - bust
David Hale (22) - 3 yrs - bust
Jeff Taffe (21) - 3 yrs - bust


2nd rounders
Corey Trivino (22 -- presumably) -- bust in NCAA - 4 yrs
Cody Goloubef (22) - 3 yrs
Aaron Ness (21) - 3 yrs
Patrick Wiercioch (20) - 2 yrs
Zac Dalpe (21) - 2 yrs
Justin Schultz (22) - 3 yrs
Derek Stepan (20) - 2 yrs
Brandon Burlon (21) - 3 yrs
Jimmy Hayes (22) - 3 yrs
Tommy Cross (23) - 4 yrs
Billy Sweatt (22) - 4 yrs
Colby Cohen (21) - 3 yrs
Theo Ruth (21) - 3 yrs
Nico Sacchetti (never?) - 4 yrs - bust in NCAA
Will Weber (24) - 4 yrs
Mike Hoeffel (22) - 4 yrs
2006
Carl Sneep (23) - 4 yrs
Andreas Nodl (22) - 2 yrs (immediate to NHL)
Mike Ratchuk (20) - 2 yrs - bust
Jeff Petry (23) - 3 yrs - good NHL talent; limited transition time to NHL
Blake Geoffrion (22) - 4 yrs
Simon Danis-Pepin (21) - 3 yrs - bust
Jamie McBain (21) - 3 yrs - AHL for 1 yr
2005
Ryan Stoa (22) - 4 yrs
Taylor Chorney (21) - 3 yrs
Justin Abdelkader (21) - 3 yrs
Paul Stastny (21) - 3 yrs
Tom Fritsche (21) - 4 yrs - bust in NCAA
Mason Raymond (22) - 2 yrs
Dan Bertram (21) - 4 yrs
2004
Darin Olver - 4 yrs - bust
Grant Lewis (22) - 4 yrs - bust
Raymond Sawada (22) - 4 yrs
David Booth (22) - 4 yrs -- 25 gp in AHL before NHL fulltime
Alex Goligoski (22) - 3 yrs
2003
Matt Smaby (22) - 3 yrs
Matt Carle (21) - 3 yrs
David Backes (22) - 3 yrs
2002
Rob Globke (22) - 4 yrs - bust
Matt Greene (22) - 3 yrs - 26 AHL gp then NHL full-time
2001
Tim Jackman (21) - 2 yrs
Mike Cammalleri (20) - 3 yrs
2000
Brad Winchester (22) - 4 yrs
Paul Martin (22) - 3 yrs


Drafted later, but notable
Alex Killorn (23) - 4 yrs -- good prospect in TB system; had very strong NCAA career
Steven Kampfer (22) - 4 yrs -- okay young player, solid production in NCAA
Matt Frattin (23) - 4 yrs -- solid first year of pro
Cade Fairchild (22) - 4 yrs -- strong first year pro
Brad Malone (22) - 4 yrs -- decent first pro year
Nick Bonino (22) - 3 yrs -- solid depth NHLer
Justin Braun (23) - 4 yrs -- adjustment made quickly to NHL
2006
Brain Strait (21) - 3 yrs
Benn Ferriero (22) - 4 yrs
Erik Condra (23) - 4 yrs
2005
Chris Butler (22) - 3 yrs
Nathan Gerbe (21) - 3 yrs
Mark Fayne (23) - 4 yrs -- only 19 AHL GP before full-time NHL
Colin Greening (24) - 4 yrs -- 59 gp AHL then NHL full-time
2004
Mike Lundin (23) - 4 yrs -- straight to NHL out of NCAA
Ryan Jones (24) - 4 yrs -- close straight to NHL
Jake Dowell (22) - 4 yrs
Matt Hunwick (22) - 4 yrs
Brandon Yip (24) - 4 yrs
2003
Ryan O'Byrne (23) - 3 yrs
Lee Stempniak (22) - 4 yrs (immediately turned NHLer)
Matt Moulson (23) - 4 yrs
David Jones (23) - 3 yrs
2002
Patrick Dwyer (22) - 4 yrs
Tom Gilbert (23) - 4 yrs
Adam Burish (23) - 4 yrs
2001
Patrick Sharp (21) - 2 yrs
Kevin Bieksa (23) - 4 yrs
Andrew Alberts (24) - 4 yrs (8 AHL gp then NHL full)
David Moss (24) - 4 yrs
2000
Dominic Moore (23) - 4 yrs
Greg Zanon (23) - 4 yrs
JM Liles (23) - 4 yrs


Note on results: after looking at years 2007 and 2008, I can see that only Stepan, McDonagh, Shattenkirk, Colin Wilson and Jake Gardiner have made the NHL already from the NCAA in those drafts.


*** what's notable about these players who spent longer (3-4 yrs) in their NCAA programmes is that they, by and large, even if they were late draft picks, needed very little AHL time before moving up to the NHL. Justin Braun, a 7th rounder in 2007, is a good example of this: 37 AHL games before becoming a regular in the NHL more or less.

On the other hand, as implied earlier in the note on draft years 2007 and 2008, most NCAA players who turn pro after 2 NCAA seasons or so require 1-2 full years in the AHL--even if they're highly touted first rounders.

As such, while they turn pro earlier, they don't seem to end up in the NHL much earlier (if at all) than darkhorses who stick in the NCAA for 3-4 years. An example of this happening is David Backes turning pro at 22, but making the NHL at 23 after seasoning in the AHL. Alternatively, David Booth spent all 4 yrs in NCAA, then became an NHLer quickly after turning pro.

....

My conclusions altogether from the above: there is no real correlation between time spent in the NCAA and likelihood of making the NHL. The only correlation I can see is that:
  • players who are in the NCAA for 3-4 years because they've performed poorly in the NCAA and need more seasoning to get an NHL contract are, of course, not as likely to experience success at the NHL level
  • players drafted in the top two rounds (especially the first) are likely to become pro earlier for two reasons: 1) because they're more polished prospects, which is why they were drafted earlier; 2) there's more pressure from NHL clubs to move them up quicker than the prospect themselves may like, which is what happened in Montreal with Higgins, Komisarek and Hainsey
  • the amount of time players spend in the NCAA is not correlated to their success in the NHL, all other things being equal. By way of example, players A and B experience the same level of success in the NCAA. Player A turns pro after 2 years; Player B after 4. Player A will likely spend an extra couple of seasons in the AHL to hone their skills, while player B will go directly to the NHL after their 4 years are up in the NCAA. The path is different, but the end point is the same.
  • The most important component in evaluating a prospect in the NCAA is not whether they're able to turn pro quickly, as that's wholly irrelevant to the success they may achieve in the NHL, but rather to see if they're able to sustain their level of success in the NCAA and go from being a very productive player to a higher-end player by the end of their 4 years in the NCAA. If, for example, they start as a mediocre player and become a very good player, then their chances of success are minimal. If, however, they start as being highly touted, and they do well from the get-go (as Kristo did), and sustain that success, then they're no less likely to succeed in the NHL than if they had gone the AHL route after 2 years.

Mike8 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-20-2012, 10:18 AM
  #86
PunkinDrublic*
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Sutton,Qc-Sudbury,On
Posts: 8,282
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterDecoy View Post
thanks for explaining the rule so clearly.

but im pretty sure the --> ? <-- at the end of his statement meant he was asking a question, no need to get snippy about it
Actually if you would have read the whole thread you would realize that back a few posts he actually was telling someone else they were wrong when in fact HE was. So nowit's you being snippy !

PunkinDrublic* is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-20-2012, 10:29 AM
  #87
hototogisu
Global Moderator
Poked the bear!!!!!
 
hototogisu's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Montreal, QC
Country: Canada
Posts: 32,889
vCash: 500
Awards:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike8 View Post
I don't see why the 'odds would be long.' What are the odds, exactly?

Let's take a look. Let's comb through all NCAA picks. Let's note the year that they turned pro. I'd like to set the criteria for this: look only at players drafted in the top 2 rounds (as such, they had considerable expectations placed on them). However, I'm going to asterisk any players who were unsuccessful at the NCAA level. Those players are incomparable to Kristo.
Great post, Mike.

hototogisu is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-20-2012, 10:45 AM
  #88
montreal
Go Habs Go
 
montreal's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Country: Balearic Islands
Posts: 23,290
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by maryannshabs View Post
I cringe every time I think about the Habs foward prospects we've drafted over the ast decade.
I'm sure many posters here will cringe every time they read your posts.

Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterDecoy View Post
thanks for explaining the rule so clearly.

but im pretty sure the --> ? <-- at the end of his statement meant he was asking a question, no need to get snippy about it
No problem, it helps if you know the rules in place. Granted things could change whenever a new CBA is signed.

I wasn't trying to be snippy, but it does get old when people make comments like so and so won't sign with us yet the reason they give isn't even correct in the first place. To me it seems things would go better around here if people were aware of the rules before saying things like so and so won't sign with us.

Also if you are going to call me out for being snippy, I'd suggest following the conversation and not just one response. I have no problem with people calling me out, as a former writer at HF for the Habs, you have no idea the amount of crap I have had thrown at me over the years here but I do prefer when callling me out that people know what they are talking about.

montreal is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-20-2012, 11:59 AM
  #89
Whitesnake
Habs of steel
 
Whitesnake's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Lorraine, QC
Country: Canada
Posts: 46,970
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike8 View Post
I don't see why the 'odds would be long.' What are the odds, exactly?

Let's take a look. Let's comb through all NCAA picks. Let's note the year that they turned pro. I'd like to set the criteria for this: look only at players drafted in the top 2 rounds (as such, they had considerable expectations placed on them). However, I'm going to asterisk any players who were unsuccessful at the NCAA level. Those players are incomparable to Kristo.
Personnally, I'd like to see a high-end prospect, get out of a league that he dominates rather easily and be confronted with a tempo, a style, a schedule, that is closer to the next big thing. I look at your list and see that most 4-year guys that indeed went and became NHL'er only became serviceable in the NHL. We can agree that we expect Kristo to be more than serviceable.

I have a hard time believing that a guy like Kristo who we will need to see a real offensive touch to his game, be able to go from a league like the NCAA (not dissing the league by the way, I'm a fan of it) and the NHL and be able to automatically adjust his speed, timing, precisions and be the type of player we'd need him to be. Obviously, he will grow with time and will most likely be that player in 2 or 3 years. But with 1 AHL year......chances are he'd have a head start to be really contributing the year after instead of adjusting like he'd be next year.....IF he makes it.

Whitesnake is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
09-20-2012, 12:18 PM
  #90
Mike8
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 11,093
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Whitesnake View Post
Personnally, I'd like to see a high-end prospect, get out of a league that he dominates rather easily and be confronted with a tempo, a style, a schedule, that is closer to the next big thing. I look at your list and see that most 4-year guys that indeed went and became NHL'er only became serviceable in the NHL. We can agree that we expect Kristo to be more than serviceable.

I have a hard time believing that a guy like Kristo who we will need to see a real offensive touch to his game, be able to go from a league like the NCAA (not dissing the league by the way, I'm a fan of it) and the NHL and be able to automatically adjust his speed, timing, precisions and be the type of player we'd need him to be. Obviously, he will grow with time and will most likely be that player in 2 or 3 years. But with 1 AHL year......chances are he'd have a head start to be really contributing the year after instead of adjusting like he'd be next year.....IF he makes it.
I don't think we can agree that we expect Kristo to become more than serviceable. It depends on your definition of serviceable, I suppose.

As far as that list showing that most 4-year guys became only serviceable: I don't think so. And I don't think you read the conclusions/correlations if that's what you took from the list. The only reason it may seem like a lot of the 4-year guys became merely serviceable NHLers is because they were drafted to be serviceable players: they were low-ranked, mid to late round picks. The players who were stars at their respective colleges and ranked highly in their draft years, but stayed 3-4 years (such as Booth, Backes, McDonagh, Oshie, Petry, McBain, Goligoski, Carle, Petry, Paul Martin) all did well. If they stayed 3 years only, they stayed longer in the AHL than if they played 4 years in the NCAA.

Frankly, your last paragraph speaks to the fact that you did not read the correlations/conclusions at all (or you disagree with them and chose not to address that point). Many, many 4-year players took very little time to adjust to the NHL after they turned pro.

The only real correlation between spending 3 years and 4 years in the NCAA is that players who spent 3 years would then spend more time in the AHL. (all else being roughly equal, in terms of level of success in the NCAA). So while you may 'feel' it's more beneficial for an NCAA player to outgrow the league and play in the AHL, there's no evidence to support this. Further, Kristo hasn't outgrown the NCAA, and very few players do, in fact, outgrow the NCAA--even borderline bluechip prospects rarely outgrow the league.

Mike8 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-20-2012, 08:39 PM
  #91
Whitesnake
Habs of steel
 
Whitesnake's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Lorraine, QC
Country: Canada
Posts: 46,970
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike8 View Post
I don't think we can agree that we expect Kristo to become more than serviceable. It depends on your definition of serviceable, I suppose.

As far as that list showing that most 4-year guys became only serviceable: I don't think so. And I don't think you read the conclusions/correlations if that's what you took from the list. The only reason it may seem like a lot of the 4-year guys became merely serviceable NHLers is because they were drafted to be serviceable players: they were low-ranked, mid to late round picks. The players who were stars at their respective colleges and ranked highly in their draft years, but stayed 3-4 years (such as Booth, Backes, McDonagh, Oshie, Petry, McBain, Goligoski, Carle, Petry, Paul Martin) all did well. If they stayed 3 years only, they stayed longer in the AHL than if they played 4 years in the NCAA.

Frankly, your last paragraph speaks to the fact that you did not read the correlations/conclusions at all (or you disagree with them and chose not to address that point). Many, many 4-year players took very little time to adjust to the NHL after they turned pro.

The only real correlation between spending 3 years and 4 years in the NCAA is that players who spent 3 years would then spend more time in the AHL. (all else being roughly equal, in terms of level of success in the NCAA). So while you may 'feel' it's more beneficial for an NCAA player to outgrow the league and play in the AHL, there's no evidence to support this. Further, Kristo hasn't outgrown the NCAA, and very few players do, in fact, outgrow the NCAA--even borderline bluechip prospects rarely outgrow the league.
Serviceable = bottom 6 players, 3rd pairing on D.

As far as your correlation paragraphs, I read everything. Agree with most of them. Except the fact that you totally do a correlation between rank chosen and quality of player. Kristo, in some lists, was on some 1st round list and some beginning of 2nd. It will be too soon to say, but even without having played any NHL game, in a 2008 redo draft, I have Kristo ahead of a lot of guys chosen before him, as far as potential obviously since real results aren,t there yet...but so are most of those 2nd rounders.

Also D from forward, that's 2 different beasts. Where d-men are usually expected to be at their best at approx. 27 years old, most forwards are able to be important players at a younger age. But since the D's are tougher to read, well it might be a little more normal to let a guy play his 4 years in College to see exactly what he's made of. So let,s take Backes, Booth and Oshie as examples.

Backes played 3 NCAA years. And only 43 AHL games before being a NHL'er and have 23 points in 49 games and becoming a top 9 player. Booth played his 4 years, did play in the NHL in the year after but surely not had an imprint on his team before the year after. So 4 years of NCAA. And played a great role in his 2nd NHL year. While Backes had 23 points, the year after his 3 years. Oshie played 3 years in the NCAA and was a very good player in the year after in the NHL. So far as I'm concerned, if you analyse those 3 players that MAY have the same type of route as Kristo could, the 2 guys who played 3 years, played a very good role in their 1st year in the NHL, while it took 2 years of NHL AFTER 4 years in the NCAA for Booth.

Now.....we are also only talking about those 3-4 guys. Most of your list are indeed composed of guys that didn't play their 4 years. Or when they did, it's because they were left there for their lack of talent that was even starting to show in the NCAA, which is not the case for Kristo. Playing 4 years for players that ended up being more than serviceable is actually a minority. To me, that's also the reality. Now, unless we are overrating Kristo big time and he's just going to be "serviceable" or maybe not even making it at all, or maybe he'd be another Booth and ends up playing in the NHL and be a key player in his 2nd year after his 4 years of NCAA, that we'll know soon enough.

Also in your analysis, you do point out that players that spend 3-4 years in the NCAA needs less time in the AHL. Surely. But we were not discussing 3 years of NCAA here. Not sure anybody were panicking over the fact that Kristo was playing his Junior year. As your analysis shows....there's A LOT of 3-year in the NCAA players who ended up having a very good career. But the 4-year guys? Ended up being busts, serviceable, or very good...D-men. With only 1 very good forward in David Booth. I'd love to have seen Kristo be included in the majority not in the possibility of him being an exception and join the Booth route.

So will Kristo playing his Senior year means he's a bust? Surely not. Not for me. But technically, for me, a player like him who thrives in the powerplay and who might need adjustments in every other sphere of his game, will most like need AHL seasoning and more than half of a season AND MOSTLY in Montreal. While the others that might have been able to make the jump, might have been more well-rounded at their stage of their career than Kristo was. But that's becoming entirely subjective and I know that's not the point you were trying to make. By the way, thanks for that study of yours. Great work.


Last edited by Whitesnake: 09-20-2012 at 10:08 PM.
Whitesnake is online now   Reply With Quote
Old
09-20-2012, 09:30 PM
  #92
Teufelsdreck
Registered User
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 14,075
vCash: 500
Athletes may develop at different rates, so it's risky to assume that one player's career path will follow that of someone else. Also, one factor that doesn't seem to be taken into consideration is that some draftees prefer to get in a few years in university before entering the NHL. Whether that be one, two, three, or four years is an individual decision. A cynic might suggest that a college player who delays turning pro is fearful of failing but I doubt that that applies in most cases. Let's not project our own impatience. After all, none of us was drafted by an NHL team. In my youth I would have been overjoyed to receive a hockey scholarship but, alas, in addition to not being rugged enough I had no talent to offer.

Teufelsdreck is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-21-2012, 08:26 PM
  #93
vad87
Registered User
 
vad87's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Quebec
Country: Canada
Posts: 691
vCash: 500
Roman Augustoviz ‏@RomanStrib
Danny Kristo, one of four who got suspended for opener earlier, got another one-game susupenion Fri. for unrelated matter ...

Wow...

http://www.undsports.com/ViewArticle...CLID=205690593

vad87 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-21-2012, 08:40 PM
  #94
That
Registered User
 
That's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Toronto
Country: Canada
Posts: 1,961
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by vad87 View Post
Roman Augustoviz ‏@RomanStrib
Danny Kristo, one of four who got suspended for opener earlier, got another one-game susupenion Fri. for unrelated matter ...

Wow...

http://www.undsports.com/ViewArticle...CLID=205690593
He's a good hockey player, but he doesn't seem like the sharpest tool in the shed.

I wonder why he got another suspension.

That is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-21-2012, 09:12 PM
  #95
guest1467
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 24,824
vCash: 500
Who cares, honestly.

guest1467 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-21-2012, 10:58 PM
  #96
deandebean
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Gatineau, câlisse
Country: uriname
Posts: 8,679
vCash: 500
We can all speculate about his future. And everybody here has a point. More or less. But the real testament of his value with the Habs lies with what Bergevin said. Bergevin and his assistants will determine if the kid is worth it or not. Right now, they are not convinced by his commitment to succeed in the NHL. And that's the only thing that needs to come out of the discussion. His boss is not very hot about his prospect.

deandebean is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-22-2012, 04:14 AM
  #97
WhiskeySeven
Enlarged Member
 
WhiskeySeven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 13,676
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by vad87 View Post
Roman Augustoviz ‏@RomanStrib
Danny Kristo, one of four who got suspended for opener earlier, got another one-game susupenion Fri. for unrelated matter ...

Wow...

http://www.undsports.com/ViewArticle...CLID=205690593
Hey look, Whiskey's right yet again.

edit: This kid is more focused on college life than professional hockey. If he wasn't our prospect I wouldn't give the slightest damn, but he is our prospect and we wasted a draft pick (and spot at development camp for more worthy and deserving kids) on him.

WhiskeySeven is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-22-2012, 04:24 AM
  #98
ThaDevilGirl
Registered User
 
ThaDevilGirl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: YFC/YUL
Country: Portugal
Posts: 9,388
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiskeySeven View Post
Hey look, Whiskey's right yet again.

edit: This kid is more focused on college life than professional hockey. If he wasn't our prospect I wouldn't give the slightest damn, but he is our prospect and we wasted a draft pick (and spot at development camp for more worthy and deserving kids) on him.
Guy hasn't turned pro yet. He's not a waste so far... how about we let him finish school first?

ThaDevilGirl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-22-2012, 07:07 AM
  #99
onebighockeyfan
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 1,287
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc the Habs Fan View Post
Let's wait for some facts, if we ever get some. Yes, it's unfortunate that he got caught, but at least it wasn't during his team's regular season. Kids in college get drunk, it happens.
Sounds like the whole team got disciplined and he probably got suspended because is wearing an A or a C. Everybody gets drunk in college. No issue here.

onebighockeyfan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old
09-22-2012, 07:45 AM
  #100
WhiskeySeven
Enlarged Member
 
WhiskeySeven's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 13,676
vCash: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by pelletier666 View Post
Sounds like the whole team got disciplined and he probably got suspended because is wearing an A or a C. Everybody gets drunk in college. No issue here.
Did you miss the post a few above yours? He was suspended for yet another incident unrelated to the hazing one.

No issue here though.

WhiskeySeven is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Forum Jump


Bookmarks

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:32 PM.

monitoring_string = "e4251c93e2ba248d29da988d93bf5144"
Contact Us - HFBoards - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Use - Advertise - Top - AdChoices

vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
HFBoards.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2014 All Rights Reserved.