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09-20-2012, 10:07 AM
  #176
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I hope they win it all while having a negative run differential in the playoffs

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09-20-2012, 10:09 AM
  #177
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Originally Posted by DatBoyJPP View Post
I hope they win it all while having a negative run differential in the playoffs

Haha I didn't wanna push anyone over the edge.

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09-20-2012, 10:31 AM
  #178
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Originally Posted by DatBoyJPP View Post
I'm not one to reduce 150 games to "very lucky"
Well plenty of teams (and players) can get very lucky over the course of a full season. In baseball you need a sample of two-three seasons before you can really get comfortable that certain performances are repeatable (it varies by the stats...walk rate for hitters and ground ball rate for starters stabilizes very quickly, within half a season...however batting average on balls in play is extremely wild and prone to tons of luck, and you might not know a player or team's true skill for a couple seasons).

Quote:
I hope they win it all while having a negative run differential in the playoffs
And they might. I would say it's extremely unlikely because the team will stop winning these extra inning games/one run affairs at some point.

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09-20-2012, 10:45 AM
  #179
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Wow, the Orioles are like 28-7 in one run games, and have a bottom five record in games decided by three or more runs.

I'll dig up the studies later, but basically there is very little season to season correlation in winning one run games. For reasons I mentioned before, this makes tons of logical sense too. When you win games by 3+ runs, you're insulated from the bad bounce, the poorly located pitch, or the bad call from immediately costing you the game.

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09-20-2012, 11:12 AM
  #180
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At the end of the day, if you win games it doesn't matter how you do it. The best team in the league almost never wins the cup/super bowl/world series/whatever

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09-20-2012, 11:17 AM
  #181
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Originally Posted by Rhodes 81 View Post
At the end of the day, if you win games it doesn't matter how you do it. The best team in the league almost never wins the cup/super bowl/world series/whatever
"Almost never" is an exaggeration, but because the crapshoot that the playoffs is, you're right. A 162 game season reduced to a maximum of 19 games.

With that said, it's still interesting to talk about what teams are actually good versus what teams are probably getting lucky.

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09-20-2012, 11:42 AM
  #182
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True, but winning one run games is a skill in itself. They may get blown out more than you would expect from a playoff team, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's all luck.
I like the orioles though, so I'm hopeful that they're the exception to the rule in this case

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09-20-2012, 11:51 AM
  #183
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
The Yankees' run differential is 110 runs better than the Orioles. If Baltimore makes the playoff, I'll be pretty beside myself.
I won't be upset if they make it, greater anomalies have happened and will surely happen again. But I will be upset if they get anywhere in the playoffs, especially if they beat the Yankees along the way somehow.

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09-20-2012, 03:05 PM
  #184
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhodes 81 View Post
True, but winning one run games is a skill in itself. They may get blown out more than you would expect from a playoff team, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's all luck.
I like the orioles though, so I'm hopeful that they're the exception to the rule in this case
Winning one run games really isn't a skill, though. If it was it would be more repeatable from year to year. Perhaps teams with poor offenses and very good bull pens could win some more close games, but certainly not to the Orioles' ridiculous 80% success rate.

Once again, forget the stats and go back to logic. If you're consistently going into the 8th and 9th inning in a tied or one run game, you are exposing yourself to one bad pitch or one bad bounce or one bad call losing the game for you. Eventually those bounces will turn against you, and you'll start to lose.

Does anyone honestly think the Orioles will continue to win 80% of one run games going forward?

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09-20-2012, 03:23 PM
  #185
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
Winning one run games really isn't a skill, though. If it was it would be more repeatable from year to year. Perhaps teams with poor offenses and very good bull pens could win some more close games, but certainly not to the Orioles' ridiculous 80% success rate.

Once again, forget the stats and go back to logic. If you're consistently going into the 8th and 9th inning in a tied or one run game, you are exposing yourself to one bad pitch or one bad bounce or one bad call losing the game for you. Eventually those bounces will turn against you, and you'll start to lose.

Does anyone honestly think the Orioles will continue to win 80% of one run games going forward?
A lot of it has to do with the bullpen

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09-20-2012, 03:24 PM
  #186
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
Winning one run games really isn't a skill, though. If it was it would be more repeatable from year to year.
Bullpens have huge turnover which is why it isn't as repeatable as you would like

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09-20-2012, 03:38 PM
  #187
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Some dumbass started a rumor on twitter that Cano tested positive for PEDs. Apparently it isn't true though. How can someone have such a petty life that they need to start ******** rumors and try to taint other people's reputations on twitter just for fun?

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09-20-2012, 03:42 PM
  #188
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DatBoyJPP View Post
Bullpens have huge turnover which is why it isn't as repeatable as you would like
It's not just turnover. Relief pitchers are enigmatic from year to year in general because they a) aren't as good as starters, and b) don't pitch a large sample of innings each year.

Say an average reliever pitches 50-60 innings in a season...that's like 30% of what a starter pitches. Now think about how most starters go through peaks and valleys in their performance throughout a season. For a relief pitcher, that peak, or that valley, can be their entire season.

Which is a big reason why relief pitcher performance is so volatile, and why teams often don't hold onto relief pitchers for very long.

In the end I think it further confirms the point that winning one run games isn't sustainable in the long run. It's not as if Baltimore has four Chapman's in their bullpen. The actual talent there isn't overly spectacular. I will bet extreme amounts of money that Jim Johnson and Pedro Stropp, with their mediocre K/BB ratios, will not post sub 3.00 ERAs next year.

EDIT: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.asp...ter=&players=0

Compare the ERA to the FIP and xFIP for Baltimore's relievers. Every single relief pitcher is outperforming their peripheral statistics, some by a healthy margin. Expect regression by Baltimore's bullpen soon, whether it be in the last month or next season.

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09-20-2012, 04:32 PM
  #189
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
Does anyone honestly think the Orioles will continue to win 80% of one run games going forward?
They've done it for 150 games, so I see no reason why they can't do it for another 25. Beyond this year it doesn't matter. You don't win anything for being good every year. It only takes one.

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09-20-2012, 04:55 PM
  #190
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rhodes 81 View Post
They've done it for 150 games, so I see no reason why they can't do it for another 25. Beyond this year it doesn't matter. You don't win anything for being good every year. It only takes one.
Odds are against it happening, though. If you flipped heads 80% of the time over 150 trials, you wouldn't expect to flip heads 80% of the time over the next 25. You would expect 50%.

Now, I don't really know what the proper odds of the Orioles winning a one run game are. Maybe it's 55 or 60% because of their bullpen. However, it's definitely not 80%.

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09-20-2012, 06:34 PM
  #191
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Since we're talking odds and stats, please tell me the Phillies will crash and burn.

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Old
09-20-2012, 07:32 PM
  #192
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Oh Mets...

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09-20-2012, 09:48 PM
  #193
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Reds and Nationals are the first teams to clinch a berth in the postseason. I figured the Reds would make it, but not that easily. Crazy.

Pirates are now below .500 too, back to normal. 20 years and counting...

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09-20-2012, 09:57 PM
  #194
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
Odds are against it happening, though. If you flipped heads 80% of the time over 150 trials, you wouldn't expect to flip heads 80% of the time over the next 25. You would expect 50%.

Now, I don't really know what the proper odds of the Orioles winning a one run game are. Maybe it's 55 or 60% because of their bullpen. However, it's definitely not 80%.
This is a game played by human beings, not a coin flip. Come on now

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09-20-2012, 10:02 PM
  #195
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Normally I bristle at the stat-geek approach, but run difference isn't something that's one of these new-age invented stats like CORSI/Fenwick in hockey or some of the Sabremetric stuff in baseball. It honestly is bizarre to win such a majority of the close/extra inning games, doubly so with a minimal run difference over that many games.

I do think the impact of Showalter has to be acknowledged in close games though. He's one of the rare baseball managers that makes a tangible impact, at least early in his tenures.

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09-20-2012, 11:22 PM
  #196
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Personally I think 1 run games win/loss record is one of the dumbest stats baseball has.

I don't even know what it measures. Is it supposed to suggest the ability to win neck and neck games?

Personally, I see a game that is 1-1 through 8 innings before the road team scores 15 runs in the top of the 9th a lot closer of a game than a team that is down 15-0 after 8 and scores 14 runs in the 9th.

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09-20-2012, 11:29 PM
  #197
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Originally Posted by cj225 View Post
Oh Mets...
I was asking the Mrs. today, how is that stadium so empty???

If I'm a Mets fan, when tix go onsale I'm buying up NL East match ups, especially late season....apparently not?

But interesting note - history was made by the Mets tonight, 1st time they've given up 9 hits in the first inning. Ouch

Phils didn't get any help though so that game was pretty much a moot point.

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09-21-2012, 07:10 AM
  #198
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Originally Posted by Mr.Krinkle View Post
I was asking the Mrs. today, how is that stadium so empty???

If I'm a Mets fan, when tix go onsale I'm buying up NL East match ups, especially late season....apparently not?

But interesting note - history was made by the Mets tonight, 1st time they've given up 9 hits in the first inning. Ouch

Phils didn't get any help though so that game was pretty much a moot point.
Haha no, it's terrible. I decided I wanted to go to the game on Tuesday for my birthday...what a terrible decision that could turn out to be. I'm pretty sure once we pick up our tickets that we could sit anywhere we want in the stadium.

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09-21-2012, 07:56 AM
  #199
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The Mets won the season series against the Phillies this year so suuuck onnn that

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09-21-2012, 08:06 AM
  #200
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The Mets won the season series against the Phillies this year so suuuck onnn that
Haha nice, so we have a little something to hang our hats on.

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