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Draft Position due to Lockout

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Old
09-20-2012, 10:53 AM
  #1
Rumcajs
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Draft Position due to Lockout

Say this year is entirely locked out, would the draft positions remain roughly the same for this years draft or how the NHL determine the order?

Would it be fair to guess Edmonton gets another 1st overall pick?

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09-20-2012, 10:57 AM
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Inkling
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They would probably do the same thing as 2005:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_NHL_Entry_Draft

We'd have some chance at 1st overall. Edmonton would get the maximum number of 'balls' but so would a number of other teams probably, so it would be pretty incredible (and a longshot) for them to get 1st pick again.

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09-20-2012, 10:58 AM
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If I remember correctly, after the last lockout, the draft order(which happened to be the Crosby draft) was roughly based on the rankings of the last season played, however, each team had a chance at the 1st overall pick.

Ottawa was lucky to get into the top 10...and then ruined it by taking Brian Lee.
Anaheim was also very lucky to get the #2 selection.
I think Pittsburgh had the best odds of getting the #1 pick, and they did.

Based on last seasons rankings, Columbus would have the best odds...but yes, Edmonton would probably win the lottery, and then pick another forward...because that's what they need.

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09-20-2012, 11:00 AM
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Marvelous Manked
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Inkling View Post
They would probably do the same thing as 2005:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_NHL_Entry_Draft

We'd have some chance at 1st overall. Edmonton would get the maximum number of 'balls' but so would a number of other teams probably, so it would be pretty incredible (and a longshot) for them to get 1st pick again.
Nope, Edmonton would be tied for the least amount of balls. Each first overall pick a team has had takes away a ball.

Can we please sticky this, this question is getting asked a lot.

Everyone starts with three balls, and each time a team has made the playoffs in the last 3 years or got the 1st overall pick, one ball is taken away. Every team gets at least one ball.

Essentially, the only way a team could get more than one ball is if in the last three years, they haven't had a 1st overall pick more than once, and have missed the playoffs in AT LEAST 2 of the last 3 years.



Of course this isn't the confirmed method, but it is by far the most likely scenario because it's actually pretty fair.

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09-20-2012, 11:04 AM
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Inkling
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Thanks for that clarification, didn't know that past 1st overall picks also played into the number of balls.

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Old
09-20-2012, 11:23 AM
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2005 was also a snake draft, so it is probable that 2013 would be as well. if it gets to that.

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09-20-2012, 11:37 AM
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At least if New Jersey or Phoenix won MacKinnon we'd know the fix was in this time. Either team winning when they are tied amongst those with the lowest odds would be suspect.

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09-20-2012, 12:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Manked View Post
Nope, Edmonton would be tied for the least amount of balls. Each first overall pick a team has had takes away a ball.

Can we please sticky this, this question is getting asked a lot.

Everyone starts with three balls, and each time a team has made the playoffs in the last 3 years or got the 1st overall pick, one ball is taken away. Every team gets at least one ball.

Essentially, the only way a team could get more than one ball is if in the last three years, they haven't had a 1st overall pick more than once, and have missed the playoffs in AT LEAST 2 of the last 3 years.



Of course this isn't the confirmed method, but it is by far the most likely scenario because it's actually pretty fair.
Columbus would get 5 balls though, right, because they own the Rangers' and Kings' picks?

Also pardon me if this is a really dumb question, but are trades possible during the lockout? What about for draft picks since they don't involve players?

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09-20-2012, 12:20 PM
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posted this elsewhere


Quote:
Originally Posted by saskriders View Post
I was bored so I did a simulation for a lottery if there is a lockout (based on 05s rules)

If this would be better somewhere else mods can feel free to move it

posters can also feel free to say who which teams should pick


This is the order

NYI
Cgy
Nsh
TB
Car
Wpg
Phx
Flo
NJ
Ott
Tor
Clm
Dal
Chi
Col
Min
Ana
SJ
Phi
Buf
Edm
Van
Stl
Pit
Wsh
Mtl
LA
Bos
Det
NYR

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Old
09-21-2012, 09:04 AM
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chrewilson
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moz View Post
Columbus would get 5 balls though, right, because they own the Rangers' and Kings' picks?

Also pardon me if this is a really dumb question, but are trades possible during the lockout? What about for draft picks since they don't involve players?
I wouldn't think so. I would think that, just like if the season were played, they get their picks depending on where the Rangers and Kings finish. (NYR get the 30th pick, that 30th pick goes to CBJ)

Also giving them those two extra balls would then pull two picks out of the first round. This lottery isn't just to determine the first round, it is the whole draft. So the Rangers and Kings would need to pick somewhere.

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Old
09-21-2012, 09:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrewilson View Post
I wouldn't think so. I would think that, just like if the season were played, they get their picks depending on where the Rangers and Kings finish. (NYR get the 30th pick, that 30th pick goes to CBJ)

Also giving them those two extra balls would then pull two picks out of the first round. This lottery isn't just to determine the first round, it is the whole draft. So the Rangers and Kings would need to pick somewhere.
It doesn't matter regardless. The more balls you have, the higher the percentage of picking 1st overall or close to first. (because while NYR and LA only have a 2% chance of picking 1st overall, you have to add all of the percentages together.

5 balls X .02 (likliness of each ball being picked first overall) = 10% (or 5/50)

So despite having the most balls, CBJ only has a 10% chance of picking 1st overall.

The balls that previously belonged to NYR and LA will have to be marked for later draft positioning, but CBJ could pick 1st overall with either of those balls.

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Old
09-21-2012, 09:59 AM
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Big assumption, but assume the enitre season is wiped out...I wonder if the conspiracy rumours will start up again if another money-bleeding team wins the lottery like in 2005 with PIT/Crosby

Imagine what would happen if Phoenix or Columbus wins it? Imagine what would happen if the Leafs won it!!!

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09-21-2012, 10:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spex View Post
Big assumption, but assume the enitre season is wiped out...I wonder if the conspiracy rumours will start up again if another money-bleeding team wins the lottery like in 2005 with PIT/Crosby

Imagine what would happen if Phoenix or Columbus wins it? Imagine what would happen if the Leafs won it!!!
It would be more hilarious if the New Jersey Devils won it. Don't they have to give up their pick this year because of the Kovy deal? Pretty sure they had to this past year or this upcoming season. That'll teach em to jump us in the 2011 Draft!

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Old
09-21-2012, 10:08 AM
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Marvelous Manked
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WantEggRoll View Post
It would be more hilarious if the New Jersey Devils won it. Don't they have to give up their pick this year because of the Kovy deal? Pretty sure they had to this past year or this upcoming season. That'll teach em to jump us in the 2011 Draft!
Close, but the Devils can either forfeit their pick in the 2013 Draft or the 2014 Draft.

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Old
09-21-2012, 10:09 AM
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WantEggRoll
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Ah damn would've been a classy end to that story.

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Old
09-21-2012, 11:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chrewilson View Post
I wouldn't think so. I would think that, just like if the season were played, they get their picks depending on where the Rangers and Kings finish. (NYR get the 30th pick, that 30th pick goes to CBJ)

Also giving them those two extra balls would then pull two picks out of the first round. This lottery isn't just to determine the first round, it is the whole draft. So the Rangers and Kings would need to pick somewhere.
Well they would still be labeled NY and LA, but Columbus has the rights to them. So they have the best chance at first overall (CBJ's chance plus NY plus LA) and will end up with three first round picks. It's not remotely likely but it is possible the Jackets could get picks 1, 2, and 3 (or by the same token, 28, 29, 30).

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Old
09-21-2012, 12:03 PM
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I say everyone roshambo's

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Old
09-21-2012, 01:39 PM
  #18
chrewilson
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I say they do this XFL style. Races to the puck.

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Old
09-21-2012, 01:52 PM
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Marvelous Manked
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"Sticks in the middle"

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