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The hockey Gods finally smile on Columbus

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Old
09-21-2012, 12:22 PM
  #1
BigFatCat999
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The hockey Gods finally smile on Columbus

Let's just say the ******** who Offend hockey Gods, kill another season of hockey and we have a weighted ball lottery for the picks. And let's just Columbus with their 3 1sts (CBJ, NYR, and LAK) win the first 3 picks of the lottery.

What would the value of the first 3 picks of the draft be in a strong draft like we have now?


Last edited by danishh: 09-21-2012 at 01:01 PM.
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Old
09-21-2012, 12:25 PM
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Vankiller Whale
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Columbus should keep them. Honestly they could use them more than anyone else. Mackinnon, Jones, and Barkov/Monahan and they will be set to compete in around 3 years.

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09-21-2012, 12:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigFatCat999 View Post
What would the value of the first 3 picks of the draft be in a strong draft like we have now?
A future.

In the incredibly unlikely event that that happens (if it does, buy a lottery ticket that day), they would be absolutely stupid to trade any of them, let alone all of them.

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Old
09-21-2012, 12:28 PM
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I was looking for theoretical value, if anything? I say draft MacK and Jones and then trade the 3rd for other needs, like a goalie.

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09-21-2012, 12:29 PM
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Vankiller Whale
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigFatCat999 View Post
I was looking for theoretical value, if anything? I say draft MacK and Jones and then trade the 3rd for other needs, like a goalie.
I would trade Schneider for the 3rd overall next year.

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09-21-2012, 12:32 PM
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It would depend on what was out there, but if Anaheim was going to completely rebuild, maybe you trade two of them for Ryan and Hiller.

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09-21-2012, 12:36 PM
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Honestly the BJs could probably trade each of those picks for a very good player, maybe better than anyone on their roster now but probably not truly elite.

If I were them and in the middle of a rebuild I'd probably just take the picks, or deal one for an impact player and use the other two selections.

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09-21-2012, 12:37 PM
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The odds of that happening would be something like 1 in a 15000.

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09-21-2012, 12:37 PM
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Setting aside the incredible pure math odds against such a thing happening... this is Columbus. Such things just don't happen. If we're in a lottery, we generally lose.

As an illustration of this... this comes from an AP story this May which came out shortly after this year's draft lottery:
Quote:
In the 12 lotteries in which the Blue Jackets have participated, they have had the opportunity to move up in every one. But that has never happened. In fact, they've dropped at least one spot from where they deserved to be seven times, staying in the same position five times.

A mathematics professor from nearby Capital University, Dr. Jon Stadler, parsed the numbers and determined that there is a 57 percent probability that Columbus would move up in the draft lottery over that span. Yet, when it comes to the Blue Jackets, such numbers lie.
We might as well be discussing the ongoing preseason.

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09-21-2012, 12:37 PM
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If you could get an impact player for 1, why not.

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09-21-2012, 12:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BigFatCat999 View Post
Let's just say the ******** who Offend hockey Gods, kill another season of hockey and we have a weighted ball lottery for the picks. And let's just Columbus with their 3 1sts (CBJ, NYR, and LAK) win the first 3 picks of the lottery.

What would the value of the first 3 picks of the draft be in a strong draft like we have now?
How the heck does LA or the NYR possibly get a shot at #2 and #3 overall? Why wouldn't they just limit the amount of upside a team has to say 10 slots?


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09-21-2012, 12:39 PM
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I'd keep them all, TBH. MacKinnon, Jones and a guy like Barkov or Monahan or someone with that talent?

Unlikely to happen though.
Hopefully it doesn't come to a draft lottery though.

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09-21-2012, 12:41 PM
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Cory Schneider for Seth Jones. Columbus has a whole bunch of premier defensemen, they still get to draft Mackinnon and Barkov/Monahan for their forward groups.

Whaddaya say?

It's kind of weird talking about players who haven't been drafted yet.

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09-21-2012, 12:42 PM
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Originally Posted by leeroggy View Post
How the heck does LA or the NYR possibly get a shot at #2 and #3 overall? Why wouldn't they just limit the amount of upside a team has to say 10 slots?
Because this in a case of a draft lottery, in which your ball can be picked at any time? Some teams are just more likely because they have more balls.

During the last draft lottery, teams lost a ball for each playoff appearance they had in the past 3 years and a ball for each first overall pick.

So Edmonton would have the same chance as Boston to win.

Columbus would have 5 balls, 3 of their own, LA's ball and NYR's ball.

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09-21-2012, 12:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Viqsi View Post
Setting aside the incredible pure math odds against such a thing happening... this is Columbus. Such things just don't happen. If we're in a lottery, we generally lose.

As an illustration of this... this comes from an AP story this May which came out shortly after this year's draft lottery:


We might as well be discussing the ongoing preseason.

This is theory. Like I said, I am a Red Sox fan I literally watched the Baseball Gods smile on the Red Sox in the middle of their championship series with the Yankees.

It would be statistically impossible. If you use the weight ball stats on the prospects forum, the CBJ have a 16.67% chance of the #1 pick with the 5 balls they would get (3) CBJ, (1) NYR, (1) LAK. To keep the premise, Let's say LAK wins, that leaves CBJ with 4 out of 29 13.79%, and then NYR wins the 2nd, 3 out of 28. 10.71%.

A .246% chance of happening if my math is right.

But as a Preds fan, I think it's my right to torture the dreams of the CBJ faithful.

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09-21-2012, 12:49 PM
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CBJ fans are already preparing to win the 28th, 29th, and 30th overall picks in the potential draft lottery. I think that's more likely than getting the first three overall picks.

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09-21-2012, 12:55 PM
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Value? 3 young stud players you can build a franchise around. Soooo...MacKinnon/Jones/Barkov/Monahan. CBJ really needs much more help in terms of scoring forwards than D, so it might make sense -- if this dream scenario happens -- for them to flip the 2nd overall for an impact forward or goalie, assuming Jones is the consensus no 2 still.

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09-21-2012, 01:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Cory Schneider for Seth Jones. Columbus has a whole bunch of premier defensemen, they still get to draft Mackinnon and Barkov/Monahan for their forward groups.

Whaddaya say?

It's kind of weird talking about players who haven't been drafted yet.
Well, it is Hockey's Future.

I don't think Columbus would trade Seth Jones for Schneider though. He'd be an improvement over Bobrovsky without doubt, but they'd be better off keeping the first two picks because those are really stellar prospects.

Of course I don't see them winning the first 3 picks, the odds are just way too low. HF would probably crash.

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09-21-2012, 01:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fan Of Every Anton View Post
Well, it is Hockey's Future.

I don't think Columbus would trade Seth Jones for Schneider though. He'd be an improvement over Bobrovsky without doubt, but they'd be better off keeping the first two picks because those are really stellar prospects.

Of course I don't see them winning the first 3 picks, the odds are just way too low. HF would probably crash.
I think Modo would be so desperate that she would deputize me as a mod again....

desperate I tell you!

I also know a certain CBJ mod who would hunt me down by my smartphone and kill after glees of joy.

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09-21-2012, 01:25 PM
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If Vancouver is desperate I can see Schneider+Kassian for 3rd overall + 2nd/Kubalik/etc but that's about it.

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09-21-2012, 01:34 PM
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Originally Posted by coldsteelonice84 View Post
If you could get an impact player for 1, why not.
It would have to be a very young impact player to go along with the two other projected impact players they'd be picking. Someone like OEL or the like. If they traded for Getzlaf, they'd be better off trading all the picks.

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09-21-2012, 01:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
I would trade Schneider for the 3rd overall next year.
Too bad a 26 years old goalie with 68 career games ain't worth a 3rd overall pick.

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Old
09-21-2012, 01:48 PM
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hockey hell freezing over

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09-21-2012, 01:49 PM
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It would depend on what was out there, but if Anaheim was going to completely rebuild, maybe you trade two of them for Ryan and Hiller.
Yeah, no.

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09-21-2012, 02:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Cory Schneider for Seth Jones. Columbus has a whole bunch of premier defensemen, they still get to draft Mackinnon and Barkov/Monahan for their forward groups.

Whaddaya say?

It's kind of weird talking about players who haven't been drafted yet.
I think we'd be able to do better.

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