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# 2012 MLB Thread Part III

09-21-2012, 08:32 AM
#201
Feed Me A Stray Cat
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by DatBoyJPP This is a game played by human beings, not a coin flip. Come on now
Whether it's a coin flip, or a game played by humans, it's the same concept - probability. Baseball isn't as static as a coin flip, however we have over one hundred years of data to analyze, so we can end up making pretty good determinations about different aspects of the game. One of them is that it's not possible for a team to continually win 80% of their one-run games.

The Baltimore Orioles, based on their true talent level, have a certain probability of winning a game. They also have a probability of winning a game by one run. Research has shown that a team's probability of winning a run one game is close to 50%, simply because of the large amount of luck involved in doing that. Baltimore has won almost 80% of their one run games.

Think about how ridiculous that is for a second. The best team in baseball MIGHT win 60% of their overall games. Winning more than 60% of ANY type of game, no matter how you categorize it (one run, close and late, blowout), is highly unlikely. Yet some people expect Baltimore to continue to win 80% of one-run games?

This really has nothing to do with stats. It's simple common sense.

09-21-2012, 01:57 PM
#202
cj225
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http://www.csnbayarea.com/baseball-s...9&feedID=10850

Quote:
 In an unprecedented agreement between Major League Baseball and union officials, suspended Giants outfielder Melky Cabrera will be ruled ineligible to win the 2012 NL batting title, sources told CSNBayArea.com. Cabrera asked to be removed from consideration on Wednesday, when his representatives sent a letter to union officials. The Players’ Association worked out a one-time amendment to Rule 10.22(a) with MLB officials on Thursday, one day after Commissioner Bud Selig said publicly that he was not likely to take action on the matter. Cabrera, who is hitting .346, will finish one plate appearance short of qualifying for the batting title. Rule 10.22(a) permits a player to be recognized as the official winner if extra hitless at-bats are added to his average and it remains higher than any qualifying player. (Cabrera’s average would fall from .3464 to .3456 – still .346 when rounded up.) Under terms of the agreement, Rule 10.22(a) will not apply to suspended players.

 09-21-2012, 02:21 PM #203 cj225 Work in Progress...     Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: NJ Country: Posts: 28,083 vCash: 500 Phil Hughes strikes out 4 last night - only 2nd time a Yankees player does it. http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-bi...9460--mlb.html
09-21-2012, 02:50 PM
#204
NJDevs26
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 Originally Posted by cj225 Haha no, it's terrible. I decided I wanted to go to the game on Tuesday for my birthday...what a terrible decision that could turn out to be. I'm pretty sure once we pick up our tickets that we could sit anywhere we want in the stadium.
I didn't realize you hadn't gone yet, god you really will be the only ones there at this point

http://desmond.yfrog.com/Himg740/sca...=640&ysize=640 (from last night)

If it'd been Thursday you could have maybe lucked out seeing Dickey go for win #20, that's the only thing left to watch in this Met season. The Mets themselves packed it in weeks ago.

09-21-2012, 02:51 PM
#205
cj225
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 Originally Posted by NJDevs26 I didn't realize you hadn't gone yet, god you really will be the only ones there at this point http://desmond.yfrog.com/Himg740/sca...=640&ysize=640 If it'd been Thursday you could have maybe lucked out seeing Dickey go for win #20, that's the only thing left to watch in this Met season. The Mets themselves packed it in weeks ago.
Yup..I'll probably get the guy who started last night starting on Tuesday.

09-21-2012, 02:53 PM
#206
NJDevs26
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 Originally Posted by cj225 Yup..I'll probably get the guy who started last night starting on Tuesday.
He's probably going to be DFA'ed after that one...they are running out of guys to start with Harvey shelved for the season though.

 09-21-2012, 08:44 PM #207 StvBroDan Re2pect     Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: USA Country: Posts: 17,181 vCash: 500 Way to give another one up **** en way to go Russell. Last edited by StvBroDan: 09-21-2012 at 09:15 PM.
 09-22-2012, 08:23 AM #208 Jersey Man Mad Dog     Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: New York, NY Country: Posts: 14,505 vCash: 500 Going to the Yankees game soon.
 09-22-2012, 09:39 AM #209 Wingman77 Glory Days     Join Date: Mar 2010 Country: Posts: 18,667 vCash: 500 Ichiro's average up 20 points since joining Yanks, batting .281 overall and .327 with Yanks
 09-22-2012, 06:50 PM #210 Jersey Man Mad Dog     Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: New York, NY Country: Posts: 14,505 vCash: 500 That was by far the longest game I've ever attended. Holy ****. All my friends left but I stuck through it. edit: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=320922110 Box score from the game. Unbelievable. Last edited by Jersey Man: 09-23-2012 at 08:21 AM.
09-23-2012, 06:22 PM
#211
Saugus
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by King Henrique Some dumbass started a rumor on twitter that Cano tested positive for PEDs. Apparently it isn't true though. How can someone have such a petty life that they need to start ******** rumors and try to taint other people's reputations on twitter just for fun?
It's also sad that nobody is above suspicion anymore, so these rumours are somewhat credible.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by cj225 Phil Hughes strikes out 4 last night - only 2nd time a Yankees player does it. http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-bi...9460--mlb.html
I'm surprised that Burnett was the first Yankee to do it, considering the long history of the team. I guess the old Yankee catchers didn't drop third strikes.

09-23-2012, 07:13 PM
#212
NJDevs26
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 Originally Posted by Jersey Man That was by far the longest game I've ever attended. Holy ****. All my friends left but I stuck through it. edit: http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=320922110 Box score from the game. Unbelievable.
That's kinda lame to me (your friends, not you). It was a frigging day game, on the weekend. It's not like it started on a weeknight and they would have missed the train getting home. I was wondering why Yankee Stadium looked so sparse in extra innings yesterday.

 09-23-2012, 07:31 PM #213 Saugus Ecrasez l'infame!     Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Connecticut Country: Posts: 97,512 vCash: 500 I watched that game with several old friends in a bar in my old college town. Some of them Yankee fans, others most decidedly not Yankees fans. The bar erupted in mixed cheers and curses at every lead change in extra innings. Very fun experience.
09-23-2012, 08:25 PM
#214
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 Originally Posted by NJDevs26 That's kinda lame to me (your friends, not you). It was a frigging day game, on the weekend. It's not like it started on a weeknight and they would have missed the train getting home. I was wondering why Yankee Stadium looked so sparse in extra innings yesterday.
They left after the 9th. I don't blame them but I don't like leaving before a game ends. I ended up seeing all of them at a party and ripped on all of them leaving early.

 09-24-2012, 07:52 PM #215 Wingman77 Glory Days     Join Date: Mar 2010 Country: Posts: 18,667 vCash: 500 Congrats to Clarkson Falls Down on winning the fantasy league
 09-25-2012, 05:40 PM #216 Wingman77 Glory Days     Join Date: Mar 2010 Country: Posts: 18,667 vCash: 500 Brett Gardner and David Aardsma activated from the DL for the Yanks
 09-25-2012, 08:28 PM #217 Officer Rod Farva Fire Pete DeBoer     Join Date: Feb 2010 Country: Posts: 3,394 vCash: 500 Swish is dominating right now
 09-25-2012, 08:38 PM #218 Rhodes 81 grit those teeth     Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: Atlanta Country: Posts: 12,400 vCash: 500 kris medlen.
 09-25-2012, 10:14 PM #219 StvBroDan Re2pect     Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: USA Country: Posts: 17,181 vCash: 500 Go Manage the Bosox Joe. This one's on you
 09-26-2012, 08:01 AM #220 cj225 Work in Progress...     Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: NJ Country: Posts: 28,083 vCash: 500 Oh Mets...you didn't disappoint last night! Well, when you're a Mets fan, it's hard for them to disappoint you.
09-26-2012, 08:42 AM
#221
TonyTheGr8
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by cj225 Oh Mets...you didn't disappoint last night! Well, when you're a Mets fan, it's hard for them to disappoint you.
if you have NO expectations for the New York Mets...

09-26-2012, 08:43 AM
#222
cj225
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 Originally Posted by TonyTheGr8 if you have NO expectations for the New York Mets...
They cannot fail you!

09-26-2012, 11:41 AM
#223
Wingman77
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 Originally Posted by StvBroDan Go Manage the Bosox Joe. This one's on you
This has always been my issue with him - his bullpen management is terrible and he's worn it down so badly this season with the sub par performances from the starting pitchers and with his 'use 3 pitchers where 1 is necessary'

Boone Logan has pitched in 10 out of the last 12 games, in both games of the double header last week and leads the AL in appearances and then using Soriano in both games of that double header

To top it off not only have I noticed this during games I've attended, but even on TV when they show bullpen pitchers warming up, he has some warm up two or three times before they come in

 09-26-2012, 01:34 PM #224 Saugus Ecrasez l'infame!     Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Connecticut Country: Posts: 97,512 vCash: 500 Torre was bad about bullpen management too, this is a proud Yankees tradition apparently.
 09-27-2012, 09:00 AM #225 cj225 Work in Progress...     Join Date: Dec 2006 Location: NJ Country: Posts: 28,083 vCash: 500 I hope Dickey gets his 20th win today!

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