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Do Teams Wait Too Long to Pull the Goalie?

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Old
09-29-2012, 12:41 PM
  #76
tarheelhockey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
The offensive left defenseman offers the same option with the added advantages of forward movement increasing shot velocity, and not telegraphing the strategy or shooting lane..
He has his own patch of ice to cover, above the circle. Move him over to the boards and now you have a big gap in your coverage. Thus the point of pulling the goalie in the first place.

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09-29-2012, 02:05 PM
  #77
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Less Than Two Seconds

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Originally Posted by Iain Fyffe View Post
This is doubly ridiculous because it assumes having a player between you and the net makes it less likely that you'll score. Apparently coaches had better start telling their players to get away from the front of the net when their teammates are shooting. Sure, the goaltender might get a better view of the shot and all that, but at least the shooter will be more likely to get his shot through.

Think about the implications of what you're saying: that screening a shot is a bad idea.

Yes, a player might get in the way of the shot. But he might also screen the goalie. Given the tendency for NHL coaches to focus on traffic in front of the net, I suspect the latter benefit outweighs the former drawback.
Getting away from the less than two second scenario. Offensive zone faceoff with less than two seconds remaining. From a stationary start goalie avoids being screened and the shooting lanes are limited.

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09-29-2012, 02:12 PM
  #78
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Why?

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Originally Posted by tarheelhockey View Post
He has his own patch of ice to cover, above the circle. Move him over to the boards and now you have a big gap in your coverage. Thus the point of pulling the goalie in the first place.

To what purpose with < 2 seconds?

Defense knows what can happen within two second from a set situation.


Last edited by Canadiens1958: 09-29-2012 at 02:18 PM.
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09-29-2012, 02:23 PM
  #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
To what purpose with < 2 seconds?

Defense knows what can happen with two second from a set situation.
Since you keep moving the goalposts, what does this less than two seconds situation have to do with the thread topic, "Do Teams Wait Too Long to Pull the Goalie?"

If teams are waiting until less than two seconds to pull their goalie, then I agree that it's too long.

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09-29-2012, 02:46 PM
  #80
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Subtopic

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Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
Since you keep moving the goalposts, what does this less than two seconds situation have to do with the thread topic, "Do Teams Wait Too Long to Pull the Goalie?"

If teams are waiting until less than two seconds to pull their goalie, then I agree that it's too long.
Tarheels introduced a subtopic < two seconds in any of the three periods with a faceoff in the defensive zone.

A distinct thread might have merit.

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09-29-2012, 03:53 PM
  #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
To what purpose with < 2 seconds?
The answer to that should be fairly obvious given the circumstances -- receive the puck and shoot it.

There is no sense in creating large gaps where that can't happen.

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09-29-2012, 04:40 PM
  #82
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
Getting away from the less than two second scenario. Offensive zone faceoff with less than two seconds remaining. From a stationary start goalie avoids being screened and the shooting lanes are limited.
If players don't have time to screen the shot then they don't have time to become obstacles to the shot either.

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09-29-2012, 07:20 PM
  #83
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
Tarheels introduced a subtopic < two seconds in any of the three periods with a faceoff in the defensive zone.

A distinct thread might have merit.
What exactly is your thesis here? Reading your posts I get the impression you are implying that teams would lose fewer games in regulation if they stopped taking their goalies out?

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09-29-2012, 07:48 PM
  #84
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Optimal

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Originally Posted by leeaf83 View Post
What exactly is your thesis here? Reading your posts I get the impression you are implying that teams would lose fewer games in regulation if they stopped taking their goalies out?
Getting optimal results when pulling the goalie in various situations.

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09-30-2012, 10:25 AM
  #85
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
Getting optimal results when pulling the goalie in various situations.
That's not a thesis, that's a topic. What's your *thesis*?

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09-30-2012, 11:00 AM
  #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Taco MacArthur View Post
That's not a thesis, that's a topic. What's your *thesis*?
No claim of thesis has ever been made. Just defined an area of interest.

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09-30-2012, 11:05 AM
  #87
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
No claim of thesis has ever been made. Just defined an area of interest.
And that's why we're asking, because you're all over the place. No one knows what you're actually arguing.

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10-06-2012, 04:45 PM
  #88
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Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
With 4 forwards and 2 defensemen:
1st wave = 3 first liners + 1 second liner
2nd wave = 2 second liners + 2 third liners

With 5 forwards and 1 defenseman on the 1st wave:
1st wave = 3 first liners + 2 second liners
2nd wave = 1 second liner + 3 third liners + 1 4th liner or a 2nd defenseman

*I've seen the Devils go with 6 forwards back when the skill on their blueline was pitiful, but it was never very effective
Could a case be made for a softer pull of the goalie earlier in the game? I.e. with five minutes left, replace the goalie with a stay-at-home defenceman. Instead of an empty net you'd have a player that might have a 50% save percentage but much better stick-handling than a goaltender. If said defenceman could restart the play quicker than a goaltender the offensive trailing team should be able to use more time attacking, leading to more scoring chances.

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10-06-2012, 11:30 PM
  #89
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Originally Posted by Feed Me A Stray Cat View Post
Perhaps. But I sincerely doubt the attacking team will put out 3rd and 4th liners. It's not as if they'll be rolling lines.

1st and 2nd line players will dominate the ice for the attacking team.

Also consider that the fatigue effect on the defending team will probably be much greater than on the attacking team.
not necessarily, the attacking team has to play with a sense of urgency (meaning they have to make it to every single lose puck before the other team does). the attacking team, there only job literally in a pulled goalie situation is just don't get scored on. if it could possibly work, the defensive team would and could just stand 5+ the goalie around the net and make sure no shots make it passed the goal line.

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10-07-2012, 03:37 AM
  #90
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
No benefit is gained from the sixth skater. Regardless of how talented the sixth skater is he will either clutter the available shooting lanes or be out of the way of the shooting lanes and of no benefit.

The move that used to work was spreading the shooters to the wide side, getting the goalie to anticipate wide then have the offensive center snap a short side shot at the net of the draw. Easy to counter.
Well, the biggest problem here is that you're full of ****.

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10-07-2012, 08:35 AM
  #91
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Dan Bylsma has cited a study/paper on this topic a couple of times during pregame/postgame interviews, and has expressed a preference for pulling his goalies, when need be, at around the 2:00 mark. From my recollection, he tends to pull the goalie with 90 second or more left on the clock.

I'm just checking into HFboards while on a weekend trip, so I don't have time to track down links, but it might be worth looking around for references to him on the topic if people want an NHL coach's perspective.

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10-07-2012, 10:51 AM
  #92
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Canadiens1958 View Post
No benefit is gained from the sixth skater. Regardless of how talented the sixth skater is he will either clutter the available shooting lanes or be out of the way of the shooting lanes and of no benefit.

The move that used to work was spreading the shooters to the wide side, getting the goalie to anticipate wide then have the offensive center snap a short side shot at the net of the draw. Easy to counter.
It also means more bodies to screen and have the puck go off of. If a puck is deflected to the corners, you can always out man the opponents 2-1 significantly increasing your chances for puck retrieval allowing for a more sustained attack and increasing your chances to score.

I have no idea why you would ever say that unless you got bored of being informative on virtually everything and decided to go with the trend of trolling.

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10-08-2012, 07:38 PM
  #93
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I have, in the past, run a model to investigate this with the best information I had on hand. It was a simulation study and as such the results weren't 100% but I had a rough idea of what was going on.

Going on simple models and inputs based on what I could find, I found that usually you'd need to pull w/ about 7-10 minutes to match the win expectancy that you would get by not pulling (that is to say, the "pull the goalie" strategy) is optimal when down by a single goal.

I could build the code again... but I really don't want to. The problem with the sim study was that you never get exact result. That's actually a harder inference problem than setting up the original simulation

Do note, that you're changing what is likely an equitable rate in the 2.2-3.0 scoring rate for both sides (assumed equal) to something like 3 to 4 vs. 15 to 30. I forget what NHL appropriate numbers are and I changed up the inputs to see what happened.

---

That being said, models are models, approximations of reality, no matter how sophisticated.

If teams opted for longer lengths without the goalie the teams would get better at this situation. Which way that pulls? I don't know, but I'd favor the winning team if I were a betting man. I'd also likely agree with the shift issue and exhaustion... on the other hand, with current icing rules and that you have six men on the ice you are more likely to trap the opposing team. Even then, how sure are we that the lower lines vs lower lines would be better or worse?

No sure thing here, but I think I'd hedge earlier if I were in control of the coach robot.

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10-08-2012, 07:54 PM
  #94
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You have to take into consideration that the attacking team can sustain an attack for around a minute without having to change and still being fairly fast/energized. Much longer, you have to change and that gives the opponents a chance to attack, or get the puck out.

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10-12-2012, 02:34 PM
  #95
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It really depends on the team in my opinion. Randy Caryle was always aggressive when pulling the goalie, he would pull him at 3 minutes and even if the team has a powerplay. The 2010-2011 Ducks team was amazing when down a goal and the goalie pulled, just ask Dallas fans that season but anyways it depends on if the coach believes the team can sustain that pressure. If he doesn't then keep the goalie in or pull him with less time. Its a judgement call, and I'm sure if any of us were coaches that we would fail at it, haha.

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Old
10-24-2012, 11:37 AM
  #96
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Czech Your Math View Post

If the GK is pulled around 3 minutes, the top unit would be sent out... if/when there's a stoppage in play, the GK could be put back in with lesser players... then pull goalie again as one normally would.
This was my thought when I got about half way through the first page of this thread.

Put your top line out with 6 men at the 3 minute mark (if possible, based on possession, face offs). Then either go from there with no goalie, or if there is a convenient time to do so, put your goalie back in around the 2 minute mark, and send your top 6 back out for the last minute.


Does anyone have just basic stats on scoring rates for 6-5 situations, both for and against? I would assume the team shooting on the empty net would have 15-25% scoring advantage, but I'd be interested to see actual numbers.

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10-28-2012, 10:38 AM
  #97
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Anyone have the scoring rate over time for power plays resulting from five minute major penalties? The change in scoring rate on those might be a decent comparable to pulling the goalie for an extra attacker with five minutes remaining.

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01-31-2013, 08:45 PM
  #98
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Any good numbers on Empty Net +/-?

I'd love to know the overall +/- record of teams who pull their goalies.

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Old
01-31-2013, 09:03 PM
  #99
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I don't know exactly, but if you're trying to evaluate the effectiveness of pulling your goalie...Someone did a study on this and teams should actually be pulling their goalie much earlier.

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01-31-2013, 11:11 PM
  #100
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I was thinking of the same thing a couple of days ago. It would be interesting to know the results.

Where can I find that study?

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