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Leaf fans: would you trade kadri for luongo?

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Old
10-02-2012, 08:50 PM
  #726
Vankiller Whale
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLeastOfTheBunch View Post
Take a look at their counter offers. You brought up a fan who would easily do "MPS and 1st," doesn't seem like any of the counteroffers are close to that.

http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...o#post54555807

A glance and you'd realize they have the same issues with Luongo (and similar proposals) like most Leaf fans have expressed in this and the countless other Luongo to Toronto threads.
http://hfboards.hockeysfuture.com/sh...ps+1st&page=25

Post 619:
Quote:
Originally Posted by smackdaddy
MPS + 1st and I would say a done deal everyday if you weren't in the same division as us.

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Old
10-02-2012, 09:00 PM
  #727
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Way to repeat yourself (and completely ignore the valuation of Luongo in the two oiler links I provided).

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10-02-2012, 09:01 PM
  #728
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
Trust me, a someone who's witnessed every single one of Burke's moves, examined and understood it to a far greater degree than you have, someone who realizes how stubborn he is; he's not going to come anywhere close to matching that kind of package, even if the NHLPA proposal was signed tomorrow.


You do realize that VAN fans also have an acute understanding of Burke, being that they also had him for a GM.


He's no more right or wrong than you are, in this regard.

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10-02-2012, 09:10 PM
  #729
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Originally Posted by TheLeastOfTheBunch View Post
Way to repeat yourself (and completely ignore the valuation of Luongo in the two oiler links I provided).
Yes, on our board we talk about getting Gardiner+ and I'm sure on the Leafs boards you have people offering Komisarek + 2nd.

And someone on your link offfered Gagner+, which is easily better than Kadri.

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10-02-2012, 09:15 PM
  #730
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
"news reports that are about aspects of a potential deal"... sounds like Rumours to me. As mentioned, GMs don't get into the habit of making negotiations public, so anything you hear from so called "insiders" should be taken with a grain of salt.

Not rumour. If Gillis says something on the Team1040 about Lu, or specifically to a reporter and he is directly quoted, that's a report. Not a rumour.


I do take rumours with a grain of salt... And I put a fraction of that belief in what posters have to say on a message board. The rumours by reporters carry more weight with me. For you it seems fan opinion is paramount... And that's just amazing to me.



Quote:
It's not a matter of punishing teams, simply putting all teams on a level playing field. There's still a substantial distinction between a guy with a NMC and NTC in terms of risk (guy with the NMC needs to agree to wherever he's going), just eliminate the incentive and ability for big teams to flex their financial muscle over the small teams... just like they did with the salary cap.


Except the salary cap only limits the ability of big teams to exploit their riches, not eliminate it.


Like I said, I cannot conceive of a CBA where waivers is blocked or taxed so as to prevent teams from moving problem contracts. You can. You are free too believe that. But my belief has the support of past CBAs, yours is a belief that alters what waivers has traditionally been - Meaning, you are reaching further to prove your point.

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10-02-2012, 09:19 PM
  #731
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
When a player as a rookie / sophmore shoots at 11%+ for his first 2 years, then works his way up to 17... it show's he's got a heck of a lot more in him than 11%.
It shows that he had a lucky year.

He shooting dropped by 11%...all that means is he had an unlucky year.

Kulemin is neither a 7 nor 30 goal scorer. 15G+ is reasonable.

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10-02-2012, 09:22 PM
  #732
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Originally Posted by Man Bear Pig View Post
The Leafs are in more win-now mode too.
Are they though? Both teams seem to be rebuilding and were in lottery pick territory.

The only difference is that Edmonton has enough top prospects to end their rebuild (IMO).

Leafs fans seem it's in their best interest to play their young guns (which would end up in less wins) and draft their missing franchise C.

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10-02-2012, 09:27 PM
  #733
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Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
You do realize that VAN fans also have an acute understanding of Burke, being that they also had him for a GM.


He's no more right or wrong than you are, in this regard.
Actually, he's nowhere near as right as I am. He knows Burke's tendencies from two jobs ago, in a vastly different economic reality. Obviously we're entering a new economic reality, but I think we can all agree that the new economic reality is going to be much closer to the 2005 CBA than it was the 1995 CBA.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Not rumour. If Gillis says something on the Team1040 about Lu, or specifically to a reporter and he is directly quoted, that's a report. Not a rumour.


I do take rumours with a grain of salt... And I put a fraction of that belief in what posters have to say on a message board. The rumours by reporters carry more weight with me. For you it seems fan opinion is paramount... And that's just amazing to me.







Except the salary cap only limits the ability of big teams to exploit their riches, not eliminate it.


Like I said, I cannot conceive of a CBA where waivers is blocked or taxed so as to prevent teams from moving problem contracts. You can. You are free too believe that. But my belief has the support of past CBAs, yours is a belief that alters what waivers has traditionally been - Meaning, you are reaching further to prove your point.
Yeah, Gillis said that the deal may not make the team better in the immediate. You shouldn't really need Gillis to tell you the obvious.

Waivers wouldn't be blocked, or taxed. The only thing that would be limited is the amount of money per player that can be transferred to other leagues. Based on your belief, I guess we should see cap circumventing deals continue to be signed in the new cba?

Quote:
Originally Posted by kthsn View Post
It shows that he had a lucky year.

He shooting dropped by 11%...all that means is he had an unlucky year.

Kulemin is neither a 7 nor 30 goal scorer. 15G+ is reasonable.
No. His good year showed that he's got the talent to shoot with the best of them. His bad year showed that he's got the ability to struggle so consistently. 15+ may be a reasonable expectation, but 15-20 is is not a reasonable range to lock his production in, considering how much he's shown to be capable of.

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10-02-2012, 09:30 PM
  #734
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
He doesn't need to. Kulemin's proven the ability to be one of the best shooters in the league and score 30 goals in his 3rd year. Guys who score 30 tend to be between 11% and 16%... or at least were last year. When a player as a rookie / sophmore shoots at 11%+ for his first 2 years, then works his way up to 17... it show's he's got a heck of a lot more in him than 11%.
It doesn't really work that way though - as mentioned at http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2010/...centage-vs-age

He might average more than 11% going forward, but he's probably going to be a lot closer to 11% than 17%.

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10-02-2012, 09:31 PM
  #735
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Originally Posted by Zarpan View Post
It doesn't really work that way though - as mentioned at http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2010/...centage-vs-age

He might average more than 11% going forward, but he's probably going to be a lot closer to 11% than 17%.
Sure, but capping him at 12 is utterly ridiculous. 30 goal scorers (something he's proven the ability to be) generally range between 11 and 16.

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10-02-2012, 09:35 PM
  #736
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
Sure, but capping him at 12 is utterly ridiculous. 30 goal scorers (something he's proven the ability to be) generally range between 11 and 16.
Your right it might be closer to 9............ unless you think Glencross is a 22% shooter.

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10-02-2012, 09:35 PM
  #737
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
No. His good year showed that he's got the talent to shoot with the best of them. His bad year showed that he's got the ability to struggle so consistently.
Fair enough.

Kulemin might have shown he can shoot at 17% but he's no where near the skill level of player(s) who do shoot at a 17% regularly.

ps. I don't know if you realize this but a 17% shooter in today's NHL (career) is a generational talent.

Crosby/Vanek/Toews only shoot 15%.

"Garbage goal guys" like Brunette and Homer shoot 17% but score no where near 30 goals anymore.

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10-02-2012, 09:37 PM
  #738
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Originally Posted by kthsn View Post
Fair enough.

Kulemin might have shown he can shoot at 17% but he's no where near the skill level of player(s) who do shoot at a 17% regularly.
He was in 2010-2011. Maybe he finds that skill again, maybe he doesn't.

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10-02-2012, 09:39 PM
  #739
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
He was in 2010-2011. Maybe he finds that skill again, maybe he doesn't.
I don't know if you realize this but a 17% shooter in today's NHL (career) is a generational talent.

Crosby/Vanek/Toews only shoot 15%.

"Garbage goal guys" like Brunette and Homer shoot 17% but score no where near 30 goals anymore.

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10-02-2012, 09:42 PM
  #740
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Originally Posted by kthsn View Post
I don't know if you realize this but a 17% shooter in today's NHL (career) is a generational talent.

Crosby/Vanek/Toews only shoot 15%.

"Garbage goal guys" like Brunette and Homer shoot 17% but score no where near 30 goals anymore.
I don't know if you realize this, but 17% > 15%. No, doing it in one year doesn't make up for the fact that those guys have done it over their entire career. What it does do is show that a guy has the ability to shoot with or near the best of them.

Of course, if you watched the Leafs in 2010-11, you'd know that Kulemin wasn't a garbage goal guy, despite his size. He scored a significant amount of perimeter goals. MacArthur was the garbage goal guy to a much greater degree.

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10-02-2012, 09:47 PM
  #741
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Originally Posted by Petes2424 View Post
Simply just not gonna happen.

A fringe player, second tier prospect(s) or a draft pick. Probably a 3rd.

He might actually go for even less depending on the CBA.. In fact, I'd put money on him being placed on waivers before the season starts much like a Chris Osgood was back in 01'...
This is absolutely, positively the most assinine post I've ever read

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I would easily make a bet with you on this.

Hows 1000 dollars sound? You can make it more if you like, depends how much you can afford.
How about sharing some of that action, they say there's a sucker born everyday, I think we found ours


Last edited by JayBeautiful: 10-02-2012 at 09:54 PM. Reason: spelling
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10-02-2012, 09:49 PM
  #742
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
No. His good year showed that he's got the talent to shoot with the best of them. His bad year showed that he's got the ability to struggle so consistently. 15+ may be a reasonable expectation, but 15-20 is is not a reasonable range to lock his production in, considering how much he's shown to be capable of.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean

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10-02-2012, 09:58 PM
  #743
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
He was in 2010-2011. Maybe he finds that skill again, maybe he doesn't.
maybe he finds 6.5% again, maybe he doesn't

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10-02-2012, 10:05 PM
  #744
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
I don't know if you realize this, but 17% > 15%. No, doing it in one year doesn't make up for the fact that those guys have done it over their entire career. What it does do is show that a guy has the ability to shoot with or near the best of them.

Of course, if you watched the Leafs in 2010-11, you'd know that Kulemin wasn't a garbage goal guy, despite his size. He scored a significant amount of perimeter goals. MacArthur was the garbage goal guy to a much greater degree.
Why would we assume Kulemin will shoot at his own personal statistical anomaly as opposed to him shooting around his own mean average-which is around 12%?

He shot 17% over an 82 game span. That time span isn't long enough to give a mean average.

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10-02-2012, 10:07 PM
  #745
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Originally Posted by CanuckLuck View Post
Why would we assume Kulemin will shoot at his own personal statistical anomaly as opposed to him shooting around his own mean average-which is around 12%?

He shot 17% over an 82 game span. That time span isn't long enough to give a mean average.
We're not. We're assuming that he'll shoot somewhere between his career high, and career low.

12 as a guess / bet is one thing. Capping him at 12 is ridiculous.

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10-02-2012, 10:12 PM
  #746
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
We're not. We're assuming that he'll shoot somewhere between his career high, and career low.

12 as a guess / bet is one thing. Capping him at 12 is ridiculous.
You're right, there's really no CAP. It's equally as likely he shoots 7% as it is he shoots 17%.

I think it's fair to conclude Kulemin is a physical two-way 20G scorer. Very valuable player. The likelihood of Burke trading him for Luongo is pretty low.

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10-02-2012, 10:15 PM
  #747
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Originally Posted by CanuckLuck View Post
You're right, there's really no CAP. It's equally as likely he shoots 7% as it is he shoots 17%.

I think it's fair to conclude Kulemin is a physical two-way 20G scorer. Very valuable player. The likelihood of Burke trading him for Luongo is pretty low.
Sure.

However, calling him a two-way 20g scorer simply isn't appropriate. If we balance probabilities it may be what he's projected as, but there's a ton of of upside beyond that, as well as downside to that of a sub-10 goal guy. Too much uncertainty to label him at this point.

However, like you say, either way, Burke's not moving him for Luongo. Even if he struggles to score, he brings far too much in addressing the Leafs needs.

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10-02-2012, 10:20 PM
  #748
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I'd asked this question a while back, but it wasn't answered.

If the CBA does not do anything to prevent contracts from being buried in the minors, or count the cap hit after retirement, how much would you be willing to give for Luongo?

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10-02-2012, 10:22 PM
  #749
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
Sure.

However, calling him a two-way 20g scorer simply isn't appropriate. If we balance probabilities it may be what he's projected as, but there's a ton of of upside beyond that, as well as downside to that of a sub-10 goal guy. Too much uncertainty to label him at this point.

However, like you say, either way, Burke's not moving him for Luongo. Even if he struggles to score, he brings far too much in addressing the Leafs needs.
Why can't we project him as that? In his 4 NHL seasons he's averaged 17 goals and he's better than average in his own zone. Is there a better way to label him?

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10-02-2012, 10:23 PM
  #750
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Originally Posted by CanuckLuck View Post
Why can't we project him as that? In his 4 NHL seasons he's averaged 17 goals and he's better than average in his own zone. Is there a better way to label him?
If he's not being offered for Luongo, who cares? It's just semantics.

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