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Leaf fans: would you trade kadri for luongo?

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10-03-2012, 11:03 PM
  #976
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Originally Posted by DJOpus View Post
Seems reasonable except some fans realize their teams coud desperately use Luongo but just don't want to pay the price.

If the Canucks keep both they likely win their division and are a Cup contender as a Canuck fan, I'm cool with that.
That, or they realize that the majority of Canucks fans are valuing Luongo under CBAs that don't exist, and are outside of of the gap between the NHL and NHLPA in negotiations.

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10-03-2012, 11:20 PM
  #977
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
That, or they realize that the majority of Canucks fans are valuing Luongo under CBAs that don't exist, and are outside of of the gap between the NHL and NHLPA in negotiations.
Or maybe the majority of Leafs fans just think that everything in the new CBA will go against the Luongo contract.

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10-03-2012, 11:27 PM
  #978
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Or maybe the majority of Leafs fans just think that everything in the new CBA will go against the Luongo contract.
No, the majority of Leafs fans realize that we're looking at a new economic reality.

Both the PA and NHL have agreed to a declining percentage of revenues (what those percentages are is obviously not dealt with), a reduced immediate salary cap from $70m (I believe the PA's latest proposal was around $65m?), and to not rolling back existing contracts.

Those factors will go against a Luongo contract just like it will go against anyone with large salaries/cap hits, relative to the prior CBA. They're also both in their best interest to remove / reduce the ability for rich teams to work around the cap, to which the solution may or may not impact Luongo's contract (and the other circumventing retirement deals) specifically.

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10-03-2012, 11:33 PM
  #979
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
No, the majority of Leafs fans realize that we're looking at a new economic reality.

Both the PA and NHL have agreed to a declining percentage of revenues (what those percentages are is obviously not dealt with), a reduced immediate salary cap from $70m (I believe the PA's latest proposal was around $65m?), and to not rolling back existing contracts.

Those factors will go against a Luongo contract just like it will go against anyone with large salaries/cap hits, relative to the prior CBA. They're also both in their best interest to remove / reduce the ability for rich teams to work around the cap, to which the solution may or may not impact Luongo's contract (and the other circumventing retirement deals) specifically.
Luongo's cap hit ranks 10th in the league amongst goalies. He's a lot better than the 10th best goalie, so I would still say he's good value for his cap hit.

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10-03-2012, 11:36 PM
  #980
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Luongo's cap hit ranks 10th in the league amongst goalies. He's a lot better than the 10th best goalie, so I would still say he's good value for his cap hit.
Cap hit isn't everything. His Salary still stinks for the next 6 years. It all depends on which team is taking him. A rich franchise like Toronto should have no problem paying him the money.

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10-03-2012, 11:46 PM
  #981
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
No, the majority of Leafs fans realize that we're looking at a new economic reality.

Both the PA and NHL have agreed to a declining percentage of revenues (what those percentages are is obviously not dealt with), a reduced immediate salary cap from $70m (I believe the PA's latest proposal was around $65m?), and to not rolling back existing contracts.

Those factors will go against a Luongo contract just like it will go against anyone with large salaries/cap hits, relative to the prior CBA. They're also both in their best interest to remove / reduce the ability for rich teams to work around the cap, to which the solution may or may not impact Luongo's contract (and the other circumventing retirement deals) specifically.
Luongo is good value for money atm. The going rate for someone his level $7m. Lehtonen, 1 year over .920, the rest are .914 +/- .02, got $5.9m. If the cap comes down Luongo's value looks better than now.

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10-03-2012, 11:48 PM
  #982
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
That, or they realize that the majority of Canucks fans are valuing Luongo under CBAs that don't exist, and are outside of of the gap between the NHL and NHLPA in negotiations.
And everyone is writing his value down based on a CBA that doesn't exist either.

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10-04-2012, 12:43 AM
  #983
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Yes.

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10-04-2012, 12:46 AM
  #984
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Originally Posted by Hawkaholic View Post
..what if there is no longer a cap floor and it doesn't come off when he retires?
What if there is no longer a salary cap? Seriously this is getting silly. From everything we know about CBA negotiations it points towards a salary rollback if the cap goes down. But let's say there is no rollback, well then leaving cap hits where they are would be bad for owners and players. The most powerful owners in the league, who are really in control, spend close to the cap and having cap hits remain the same would hurt their franchise. The players don't like it because then there is less space to spend on for next up UFAs and RFAs. It will also cause unnecessary player movement. It seems counter productive from both sides to reduce salary cap and leave cap hits where they are. It hurts both sides. Doubt it would turn out that way.

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10-04-2012, 12:50 AM
  #985
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Guys... we can't go making up what-if statements. We have to see what happens with the CBA.

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10-04-2012, 01:18 AM
  #986
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Originally Posted by RogerRoeper View Post
I've actually called Luongo a franchise goalie. I'm a big fan. His contract+ the fact very few teams need a goalie sinks his value.

And you can't mention the "Cheap" cap hit of 5.3 million without mentioining it's that low because he's on the books until he's 43. It better be low with that.

His cap hit will be great for a team looking to hit the cap floor in 2018. No one cares or thinks about it. We may be into the next CBA after the next one is signed by then. Who knows what the cap will be.
As mentioned earlier, at least 7 teams have been interested in Luongo. If you call nearly a third of the league few, then so be it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
No, the majority of Leafs fans realize that we're looking at a new economic reality.

Both the PA and NHL have agreed to a declining percentage of revenues (what those percentages are is obviously not dealt with), a reduced immediate salary cap from $70m (I believe the PA's latest proposal was around $65m?), and to not rolling back existing contracts.

Those factors will go against a Luongo contract just like it will go against anyone with large salaries/cap hits, relative to the prior CBA. They're also both in their best interest to remove / reduce the ability for rich teams to work around the cap, to which the solution may or may not impact Luongo's contract (and the other circumventing retirement deals) specifically.
Ok, first the PA has said they will come down from 57% over time, and laid out if the league continues to grow at it's current rate, it would be 3 years to get it to 50/50.

This is a HUGE Difference from an immediate cut. Also it is important to note that the owners are sugesting the cap itself may not go down, but the % the players pay in excrow may go up, meaning at the end of the year the cap will have rolled back (all salaries going down equally).

So in both cases, for all intense in purposes his contract is exactly the same as it is now.

Seeing as how Cox is the only person talking about making players cap hits count even when they retire, I will take that with a giant grain of salt and wait for a more reputable source.

Fair value for Lui currently is greater than a good prospect who's stock just dropped. He may still pan out, but there is no denying his stock dropped.

In both scen

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10-04-2012, 01:23 AM
  #987
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
No, the majority of Leafs fans realize that we're looking at a new economic reality.

Both the PA and NHL have agreed to a declining percentage of revenues (what those percentages are is obviously not dealt with), a reduced immediate salary cap from $70m (I believe the PA's latest proposal was around $65m?), and to not rolling back existing contracts.

Those factors will go against a Luongo contract just like it will go against anyone with large salaries/cap hits, relative to the prior CBA. They're also both in their best interest to remove / reduce the ability for rich teams to work around the cap, to which the solution may or may not impact Luongo's contract (and the other circumventing retirement deals) specifically.
The NHLPA and NHL have not agreed to anything. There have been 'initial' 'proposals', but they are simply 'initial' and 'proposals'. It's the very nature of negotiations, I do it for a living. I don't work in labor negs, but initial proposals never look like the finished product - in my experience. Never. The details the public hear about are the ones a particular party wants leaked. It's a cat and mouse game, no one knows what going on except for the high-level guys involved in the negs.

Speculating about a future CBA, is like speculating about the exact weather details 2 months from now. It's simply to early to tell.

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10-04-2012, 01:26 AM
  #988
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Does the CBA really affect how much Leafs fan would even give up for Luongo?

Hypothetically, if the salary cap were abolished, would your offers be any more enticing?

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10-04-2012, 01:57 AM
  #989
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Originally Posted by me2 View Post
Luongo is good value for money atm. The going rate for someone his level $7m. Lehtonen, 1 year over .920, the rest are .914 +/- .02, got $5.9m. If the cap comes down Luongo's value looks better than now.
This is what I find funny when people say Luongo is a cap dump and Vancouver can't have that much cap in goalies.

Lu+Schneider=9.33
Rinne+Mason=8.5
Lunqvist+Biron=8.175
Thomas and Rask=8.5
Backstrom and Harding=7.9
Price+Budaj=7.65
Fleury+Vokoun=7

These are all teams looking to compete either now or very soon who have a lot invested in goaltending and don't seem to see it as a problem (other than Thomas, who wouldn't need to be excluded if not for losing his marbles over the course of last season). Lu's "terrible contract" is exactly what gives us the cap flexibility to hold on to him instead of dump him for nothing.

We're spending the most, and obviously it's not the long-term plan to keep it that way.... but come on. A ~2 mil difference between our combo and Pittsburghs? Philly paid 7.4 last season and still had a nightmare in net. Meanwhile our tandem carried us through last spring to the presidents trophy when the rest of the team decided to hit the snooze button from Feb-April. That's a difference of Mason Raymond money for far superior performance and stability. If the cap forces us to shed salary we have several contracts that will be gone before we even need to look at Luongo.

We have zero need to rush this trade and give an elite goaltender away for scraps.

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10-04-2012, 01:58 AM
  #990
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
That, or they realize that the majority of Canucks fans are valuing Luongo under CBAs that don't exist, and are outside of of the gap between the NHL and NHLPA in negotiations.
I think your bias is that you think that's a one-way street.

Both people who want Luongo and Canucks fans are making rediculous assumptions about the upcoming CBA.

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10-04-2012, 06:22 AM
  #991
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Luongo's cap hit ranks 10th in the league amongst goalies. He's a lot better than the 10th best goalie, so I would still say he's good value for his cap hit.
Ok... that's not the point though.

The point is that when the new CBA decreases the amount of money available players, it's going to hurt players trade value somewhat proportional to their salary. Guys like Luongo, Sedins, Kesler, Booth, Bieksa, Hamhuis, Ballard, Phaneuf, Kessel, Van Riemsdyk, Connolly, Lupul, Komisarek; they all become less valuable (in the context of picks / prospects / cheap players, like Kadri) than they were under the previous CBA. This holds especially true in the short term, when there will likely be multiple teams that must shed salary.

Quote:
Originally Posted by racerjoe View Post
As mentioned earlier, at least 7 teams have been interested in Luongo. If you call nearly a third of the league few, then so be it.



Ok, first the PA has said they will come down from 57% over time, and laid out if the league continues to grow at it's current rate, it would be 3 years to get it to 50/50.

This is a HUGE Difference from an immediate cut. Also it is important to note that the owners are sugesting the cap itself may not go down, but the % the players pay in excrow may go up, meaning at the end of the year the cap will have rolled back (all salaries going down equally).

So in both cases, for all intense in purposes his contract is exactly the same as it is now.

Seeing as how Cox is the only person talking about making players cap hits count even when they retire, I will take that with a giant grain of salt and wait for a more reputable source.

Fair value for Lui currently is greater than a good prospect who's stock just dropped. He may still pan out, but there is no denying his stock dropped.

In both scen
IIRC, the PA agreed to 54% (which would give them the same salary cap as last year -- $64m). They would then see that drop to 50% over a few years, thereby limiting the potential cap increase that a team would want to reduce the long term risk in Luongo's deal, the same cap increase that was the status quo for when Luongo's contract was signed.

Fair value for Luongo is marginally better than the second most intereted team is willing to pay. Maybe that's Kadri, maybe it's not.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SunshineRays View Post
The NHLPA and NHL have not agreed to anything. There have been 'initial' 'proposals', but they are simply 'initial' and 'proposals'. It's the very nature of negotiations, I do it for a living. I don't work in labor negs, but initial proposals never look like the finished product - in my experience. Never. The details the public hear about are the ones a particular party wants leaked. It's a cat and mouse game, no one knows what going on except for the high-level guys involved in the negs.

Speculating about a future CBA, is like speculating about the exact weather details 2 months from now. It's simply to early to tell.
And in those initial proposals, there is common ground. I'm not speculating on what the uncommon ground is going to end up (although I'd take the NHLPA's proposal as a high end, and NHL's as a low end), I'm talking about aspects that are in both sides' proposals.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Does the CBA really affect how much Leafs fan would even give up for Luongo?

Hypothetically, if the salary cap were abolished, would your offers be any more enticing?
Absolutely... it'd be ludicrous to suggest otherwise. The only way that a new CBA doesn't really impact a Luongo deal, is if he's being traded for the same "type" of player / contract... like a Marian Hossa, where a new CBA is going to affect their value about the same. When you're talking about a drastic young/cheap for old/expensive player trade, the CBA will go a long way to determining which is more valuable.

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10-04-2012, 07:28 AM
  #992
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Originally Posted by seanlinden View Post
Absolutely... it'd be ludicrous to suggest otherwise. The only way that a new CBA doesn't really impact a Luongo deal, is if he's being traded for the same "type" of player / contract... like a Marian Hossa, where a new CBA is going to affect their value about the same. When you're talking about a drastic young/cheap for old/expensive player trade, the CBA will go a long way to determining which is more valuable.
I'm talking about on HF. I doubt it would make Leafs fans any more willing to trade Gardiner, Lupul, their 1st round pick, etc, even if hypothetically the salary cap were abolished.

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10-04-2012, 07:50 AM
  #993
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Does the CBA really affect how much Leafs fan would even give up for Luongo?

Hypothetically, if the salary cap were abolished, would your offers be any more enticing?
For me?, without a doubt.

The long term ramifications of his contract would be null and void for starters.

But there is also one other key aspect to what your premise brings and thats time line.

Whats Lou got left, maybe 5 years of top end tending?

Do the leafs look like they will be a cup contender in 5 years under a cap system? Well, not in my eyes.

But remove the cap and the potential for that to change is there.

Maybe we can out bid for Parise and Suter , Maybe next year we add Getzlaf/Perry.

The only way this team is a cup contender during these 5 years is massive wins in the UFA market.


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10-04-2012, 08:03 AM
  #994
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Regardless of the offer, every single one is below his actual value. Well below.

And thats expected, but when you tell me that you wouldn't part with Kadri for him, then I don't know what to say.
Well for me, giving up 1rst rounders or blue chip prospects or young quality roster players is a non starter.

For the simple belief of where, having Lou takes us.

I have 0 interest in giving up those kind of things just for a better shot at making the POs.

Yes, i am a leafs fans but i'm not delusional, Lou does not make us a contender.

Realistically has what, 5 years of top end hockey left?

I don't see us being contenders during those 5 years, with this roster and prospect pool. So whats the point in trading the kind of assets that will be of use to us when we are ready to compete.

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10-04-2012, 09:17 AM
  #995
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We have zero need to rush this trade and give an elite goaltender away for scraps.
Except that goalie has already been in talks with another team. Presumably those talks were about playing for that team, not just discussing the paint colours in the visitors dressing room.

This concept of keeping Luongo, after throwing him under the bus by signing his backup to big money, is hilarious.

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10-04-2012, 09:20 AM
  #996
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For arguments sake (not saying its true) but for as long as the Florida Panthers are loosing money during this lockout, does it become less likely they trade for Luongo?

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10-04-2012, 09:23 AM
  #997
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For arguments sake (not saying its true) but for as long as the Florida Panthers are loosing money during this lockout, does it become less likely they trade for Luongo?
Once again - we just need to see how the lockout ends.

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10-04-2012, 09:31 AM
  #998
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He wants to be a starter, and furthermore he wants to start 60+ games and all of the playoffs. In Vancouver all he'd get is a timeshare. A split. But that doesn't mean Gillis is just going to give him away to Toronto, or take on a dump like Komisarek. That's absolutely absurd and laughable.

Luongo... will... only be... dealt... if and when a team offers us something that addresses a need. Nazem Kadri is not that return.
The bolded is true.

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10-04-2012, 09:32 AM
  #999
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The bolded is true.
I'm still half hoping that Luongo wins back the starter job andSchneider is dealt for an impact forward partway through the season.

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10-04-2012, 09:40 AM
  #1000
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And finally... limit. 1k

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