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Kessel to the ducks

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Old
10-08-2012, 07:42 PM
  #51
Sojourn
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Originally Posted by Leaffan16 View Post
And with it only being the avg between conf., not highest, it would be 70 and 75.. and then add in Kessel playing with Perry+Getzlaf, and Ryan not, well.. take a hint.
Oh God. And how does Ryan not playing on the 1st PP unit factor in to your cherry picking? Kessel has less room for growth in his numbers than Ryan does.

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10-08-2012, 07:58 PM
  #52
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Originally Posted by Sojourn View Post
Oh God. And how does Ryan not playing on the 1st PP unit factor in to your cherry picking? Kessel has less room for growth in his numbers than Ryan does.
Give Kessel a decent #1 centre and you will see him put 90+ points up.
If he can put 82 pts up with a 3rd line centre then I'm sure he can do a lot better with a decent #1

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10-08-2012, 08:12 PM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Gavy View Post
Give Kessel a decent #1 centre and you will see him put 90+ points up.
If he can put 82 pts up with a 3rd line centre then I'm sure he can do a lot better with a decent #1
Right. A 3rd line center. I'm sure that's how you'd value him if you were discussing a trade proposal that included his name. I bet that's how other Toronto fans would value him too. Next you'll say Kessel carries Lupul, he can walk on water, and if you stapled him to a plank of wood he'd rise in 3 days.

How about we see if Kessel can put up a 2nd PPG season before you call him a sure thing 90 point player. Personally, I do think Kessel has a slight edge offensively over Ryan(though I feel Ryan is the better goal scorer), but I still wouldn't take Kessel over him, because Ryan's physical edge is much more significant. Ryan is going to help Anaheim build an actual 2nd line.

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10-08-2012, 08:35 PM
  #54
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Originally Posted by Gavy View Post
Give Kessel a decent #1 centre and you will see him put 90+ points up.
If he can put 82 pts up with a 3rd line centre then I'm sure he can do a lot better with a decent #1
I have watched Kessel since before he was drafted, a lot of people argue that he would be better with better players. I actually think Kessel is what he is and does what he does regardless of who he plays with.

I think he can improve his stats a lot, I just think that improving his offensive stats will be extremely difficult.

I think if he put in the work he could get a lot better on the defensive side of things.

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10-08-2012, 08:43 PM
  #55
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sojourn View Post
Kessel has less room for growth in his numbers than Ryan does.
Any evidence for this or is it based on subjectivity?

Take a look at Bobby's production on the PP:
'11-'12: 11 PP points averaging 2:09 PP TOI/game (4th amongst Duck forwards)
'10-'11: 10 PP points averaging 2:24 PP TOI/game (4th amongst Duck forwards)
'09-'10: 21 PP points averaging 2:52 PP TOI/game (4th amongst Duck forwards)
'08-'09: 23 PP points averaging 2:42 PP TOI/game (4th amongst Duck forwards)

Kessel in his breakout season with Boston:
'08-'09: 15 PP points averaging 2:22 PP TOI/game (7th amongst Bruin forwards)
Kessel last season:
'11-'12: 23 PP points averaging 3:20 PP TOI/game (1st amongst Leaf forwards)

Bobby's efficiency on the PP has been decreasing over the years even though he's been mainly used on the 2nd PP unit. Kessel's production rose by a whopping 8 PP points by playing 1st PP unit minutes on the Leafs (it's not exactly a slam dunk Bobby will see a dramatic increase in production if he saw 1st PP unit minutes on the Leafs).

While, in Phil's case, replacing Crabb/Versteeg with Lupul on his line has led him to produce 99 points in the 94 games Lupul's been a Leaf.


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Old
10-08-2012, 08:48 PM
  #56
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Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
I wouldn't sat that. As a rental, a 2nd line centre, a good prospect , a 1st, and a throw in isn't too bad value. But Getzlaf likely re-signs with Anaheim, so there's no reason to do it for them.
Be funny if Getzlaf agrees to return to Anaheim after that deal.

Then Anaheim gets Grabo, Franson, Kadri, and a first for missing two months or more of Getzlaf.

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10-08-2012, 09:16 PM
  #57
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Originally Posted by Gavy View Post
Give Kessel a decent #1 centre and you will see him put 90+ points up.
If he can put 82 pts up with a 3rd line centre then I'm sure he can do a lot better with a decent #1
Putting "insert player name here" with a decent #1 centre and their numbers will magically jump up is the biggest myth on hfboards. Guys of Kessel's calibre may see a small increase in production with an elite centre but it is never as much as what people believe it will be. The biggest increases in a players production come from increased ice time (both at ES and the PP) and natural development, not their linemates. Elite players will produce no matter who their linemates are. Some players will produce even less with other elite players because they like carrying the puck as much as possible and playing with another elite guy prevents them from being able to do so.

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10-08-2012, 09:20 PM
  #58
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Originally Posted by TheLeastOfTheBunch View Post
Any evidence for this or is it based on subjectivity?

Take a look at Bobby's production on the PP:
'11-'12: 11 PP points averaging 2:09 PP TOI/game (4th amongst Duck forwards)
'10-'11: 10 PP points averaging 2:24 PP TOI/game (4th amongst Duck forwards)
'09-'10: 21 PP points averaging 2:52 PP TOI/game (4th amongst Duck forwards)
'08-'09: 23 PP points averaging 2:42 PP TOI/game (4th amongst Duck forwards)

Kessel in his breakout season with Boston:
'08-'09: 15 PP points averaging 2:22 PP TOI/game (7th amongst Bruin forwards)
Kessel last season:
'11-'12: 23 PP points averaging 3:20 PP TOI/game (1st amongst Leaf forwards)

Bobby's efficiency on the PP has been decreasing over the years even though he's been mainly used on the 2nd PP unit.
Ryan's efficiency has not been decreasing, he spent a decent amount of time on the top PP units in 08-09 and 09-10 because Selanne missed significant time each year with injuries and Ryan took his spot. That wasn't the case in 10-11 and 11-12 as Selanne only missed 7 games combined over those two seasons. So you're comparing years where he was on the top unit with years he wasn't.

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10-08-2012, 09:46 PM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Paul4587 View Post
Ryan's efficiency has not been decreasing, he spent a decent amount of time on the top PP units in 08-09 and 09-10 because Selanne missed significant time each year with injuries and Ryan took his spot. That wasn't the case in 10-11 and 11-12 as Selanne only missed 7 games combined over those two seasons. So you're comparing years where he was on the top unit with years he wasn't.
In 09-10 he had 5 PP points in Selanne's absence, although your point strongly correlates with Ryan's increase in PP goal production in 08-09 during Selanne's absence. But I think my point still stands, that an increase in PP time doesn't mean production is going to increase dramatically, not like Kessel's increase in production since Lupul's arrival. Phil probably would've hit the high 80s/90 point mark if Lupul was healthy all season, and there's no reason to believe his production won't increase further if he had a guy like Getzlaf on his line..Agree to disagree I guess.

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10-08-2012, 10:06 PM
  #60
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I love Kessel but wouldn't mind a trade that would make the top line: Lupul-Getzlaf-Perry.
Phil would probably love Anaheim anyways.

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Old
10-08-2012, 10:19 PM
  #61
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Originally Posted by TheLeastOfTheBunch View Post
In 09-10 he had 5 PP points in Selanne's absence, although your point strongly correlates with Ryan's increase in PP goal production in 08-09 during Selanne's absence. But I think my point still stands, that an increase in PP time doesn't mean production is going to increase dramatically, not like Kessel's increase in production since Lupul's arrival. Phil probably would've hit the high 80s/90 point mark if Lupul was healthy all season, and there's no reason to believe his production won't increase further if he had a guy like Getzlaf on his line..Agree to disagree I guess.
Your argument is based on your perception of the 2nd PP unit. Anaheim's 1st PP unit is significantly(ridiculously) better than the 2nd unit, based primarily on the fact that Anaheim has been a top heavy team offensively the last few years. Once you get past Getzlaf, Perry, Selanne, and Ryan, there hasn't been a whole lot there. That extended into defensemen too, after you got past Visnovsky and Fowler.

What you're basically saying is that Kessel's numbers point more towards production at even strength, and less so on the PP. That career year you mentioned also coincides with Kessel jumping onto the 1st line, with Savard. What you're ignoring, however, is that Boston's PP wasn't all that impressive, at 17%. That 17% would have come primarily from the 1st PP unit, so that 2nd unit probably wasn't very pretty either. Toronto's PP, since grabbing Kessel, has been even worse, and that's with him on the 1st PP unit. Contrast that with Anaheim's PP, since Ryan has been on the team, which has been above 20%, excluding last season which was a pretty bad season all-around. Again, as I already pointed out, that percentage comes from the 1st unit, with the 2nd unit really being more of an afterthought.

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10-08-2012, 10:26 PM
  #62
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this trade solves exactly zero needs for Anaheim

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10-08-2012, 11:02 PM
  #63
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this trade solves exactly zero needs for Anaheim
It'd mean we wouldn't have to see "Getzlaf to Toronto" every two days

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10-08-2012, 11:09 PM
  #64
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Originally Posted by Sojourn View Post
What you're basically saying is that Kessel's numbers point more towards production at even strength, and less so on the PP. That career year you mentioned also coincides with Kessel jumping onto the 1st line, with Savard. What you're ignoring, however, is that Boston's PP wasn't all that impressive, at 17%. That 17% would have come primarily from the 1st PP unit, so that 2nd unit probably wasn't very pretty either. Toronto's PP, since grabbing Kessel, has been even worse, and that's with him on the 1st PP unit. Contrast that with Anaheim's PP, since Ryan has been on the team, which has been above 20%, excluding last season which was a pretty bad season all-around. Again, as I already pointed out, that percentage comes from the 1st unit, with the 2nd unit really being more of an afterthought.
First of all, Boston's PP wasn't at 17%, but was operating at 23.6% (#4 in the league). Kessel is one of the better PP goal scorers over the past 3 seasons (5 PP goals off from being top 5). What you're totally ignoring is the quality of teammates for Kessel..In 08-09, Kessel's ES teammate Savard had 30 PP points, but Phil was one of the least used Boston PP forwards. Fast forward a few years to Phil's PPG season, he only puts up an 8 point PP improvement (albeit still top 20 amongst NHL forwards) compared to his breakout season in Boston. And that's with him playing a full minute more on the PP.
Phil had a similar PP production improvement in his PPG season compared to his first season with the Leafs, and that's with a decrease in PP time. Ofcourse, the difference here being a higher quality of teammates (Lupul, Phaneuf..). Not sure why it's unreasonable to assume he would see a similar degree of improvement with a guy like Getzlaf around, who's been amongst the league leaders in PP and ES production himself.


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Old
10-08-2012, 11:58 PM
  #65
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Originally Posted by TheLeastOfTheBunch View Post
First of all, Boston's PP wasn't at 17%, but was operating at 23.6% (#4 in the league). Kessel is one of the better PP goal scorers over the past 3 seasons (5 PP goals off from being top 5). What you're totally ignoring is the quality of teammates for Kessel..In 08-09, Kessel's ES teammate Savard had 30 PP points, but Phil was one of the least used Boston PP forwards. Fast forward a few years to Phil's PPG season, he only puts up an 8 point PP improvement (albeit still top 20 amongst NHL forwards) compared to his breakout season in Boston. And that's with him playing a full minute more on the PP.
Phil had a similar PP production improvement in his PPG season compared to his first season with the Leafs, and that's with a decrease in PP time. Ofcourse, the difference here being a higher quality of teammates (Lupul, Phaneuf..). Not sure why it's unreasonable to assume he would see a similar degree of improvement with a guy like Getzlaf around, who's been amongst the league leaders in PP and ES production himself.
Oops. Was looking at the wrong year... still doesn't change my argument. You're trying to transplant Kessel's production onto Ryan, when they played on completely different teams. You're saying Ryan wouldn't get a boost from being on the 1st PP because Kessel didn't. My mistake with Boston just further points that out. A successful PP is going to have a more significant impact on his production. In Kessel's case, his PP TOI suggests he was on the 2nd PP unit. His 15 PP points put him at 5th, amongst forwards on Boston. The leading PP producer, as you mentioned, was Savard with 30.

So, yes, fast forward to today. He gets a full minute more on the PP. Now, you're saying he only had an 8 point increase, which isn't that much... but he also lead his team in PP points, with 23, and scoring has continued to go down since the lockout. This is another example if you trying to make one team the same as another, and going further, one season the same as another.

The only team that matters, in this argument, is Anaheim. The only seasons where Bobby Ryan's PP numbers came close to the top 3 forwards(Selanne, Perry, and Getzlaf), were the seasons he spent some time on the 1st PP unit due to injuries. Trying to tell me that Bobby Ryan's numbers shouldn't take a nice jump, because of someone on a completely different team with completely different players is a bit absurd.

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10-09-2012, 12:06 AM
  #66
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To give you some perspective, in 2010-2011 Selanne had 34 PP points(73 GP). Perry had 31(82 GP). Getzlaf had 27(67 GP).

Bobby Ryan had 10(82 GP).

Even this last year, when the PP was the worst it's been in years, the difference was significant. Selanne had 28 PP points. Getzlaf and Perry both had 23. Bobby Ryan had 11. This, on a PP that went from top 5 in the league, to bottom 10.

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10-09-2012, 12:13 AM
  #67
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So who plays centre for the Ducks after this trade OP? Just wondering because I hear it is an important position in hockey.

And you guys can argue back and forth all you want, but personally I'll keep Ryan. I like his overall game a lot better and I think he can close the gap offensively when he gets 1st unit PP time. Kessel would have to be significantly better than Ryan offensively for me to want to swap the two players and that simply isn't the case. It sounds like most Leafs fans think the opposite so you may as well just take the two players out of the proposal.

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10-09-2012, 01:28 AM
  #68
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Oops. Was looking at the wrong year... still doesn't change my argument. You're trying to transplant Kessel's production onto Ryan, when they played on completely different teams. You're saying Ryan wouldn't get a boost from being on the 1st PP because Kessel didn't. My mistake with Boston just further points that out. A successful PP is going to have a more significant impact on his production. In Kessel's case, his PP TOI suggests he was on the 2nd PP unit. His 15 PP points put him at 5th, amongst forwards on Boston. The leading PP producer, as you mentioned, was Savard with 30.

The only team that matters, in this argument, is Anaheim. The only seasons where Bobby Ryan's PP numbers came close to the top 3 forwards(Selanne, Perry, and Getzlaf), were the seasons he spent some time on the 1st PP unit due to injuries. Trying to tell me that Bobby Ryan's numbers shouldn't take a nice jump, because of someone on a completely different team with completely different players is a bit absurd.
Not sure if the argument here is clear, but I am not saying Ryan wouldn't get a boost (because he should..), just not a significant one to erase the difference between him and Kessel. I'l agree to disagree, I see the difference in Kessel/Ryan's production levels a bit different than you do.

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10-09-2012, 01:49 AM
  #69
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Not sure if the argument here is clear, but I am not saying Ryan wouldn't get a boost (because he should..), just not a significant one to erase the difference between him and Kessel. I'l agree to disagree, I see the difference in Kessel/Ryan's production levels a bit different than you do.
I imagine that's because you're looking at Kessel as the PPG player he was this season, and then at Ryan as the 57 point producer he was this season. Both of those numbers are off their career averages, and even if I conceded that Kessel might have taken the next step and will be a PPG player until hits that point in his career where age starts to hurt his offense, Ryan has still shown he can produce 30+ goals and 60-70 points in a number of seasons without 1st unit PP time.

That means, with 1st unit PP time, if his numbers are consistent with other Anaheim forwards who have 1st unit PP time, Ryan should be able to put up roughly 40 or more points, and 75 or more points, and that's actually pretty conservative, since in a normal season that would require 5-6 more goals and roughly the same amount in assists. That is definitely on par with Kessel(exceeding him in goals) offensively, and then you factor in Ryan's size and physical game, which is something Kessel just can't match.

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10-09-2012, 03:44 AM
  #70
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c. perry

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10-09-2012, 04:48 AM
  #71
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Rather have Ryan + Getzlaf then Kessel + Grabovski.

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10-09-2012, 10:50 AM
  #72
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c. perry
Is not being traded.

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10-09-2012, 10:52 AM
  #73
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OV 65 pts last season ,Kessels 82 pts last season.So going by your assumption
Kessels is now > OV because what ever OV. accomplished in past seasons doesn't matter.
As for the last paragraph the Paranoia continues.
No, and I didn't say that, you did. But he is better than Ryan -- that is what I said. Stop putting words in people's mouths.

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10-09-2012, 10:55 AM
  #74
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No, and I didn't say that, you did. But he is better than Ryan -- that is what I said. Stop putting words in people's mouths.
At scoring. Not at anything else.

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10-09-2012, 10:55 AM
  #75
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But Kessel doesn't score 80 points annually.

Yes, Kessel had a career year. Ryan had an off year. How were they years before that?

So? He also only had 57 points, and by every definition it was a pretty poor year from Getzlaf.

The only reason the last year is more important than the last three years is because Kessel had a great year. Three years is a significantly greater sample size than one. Last year might have more significance in terms of short-term contributions, but when comparing two players you look at the entire picture. A player can have a worse season, and still be considered the better player because of the three or four years prior.

To give you some perspective:

Kessel just had his best year, with 82 points in 82 games. 1.0 points per game.

Ryan Getzlaf has had four years where he produced at a higher level, with 1.06 in 2007-2008, 1.12 in 2008-2009, 1.05 in 2009-2010, and 1.13 in 2010-2011.

With your logic, Kessel's one great year elevates him above Getzlaf's poor one, just because it was the most recent year. That's absurd.
The comparison wasn't Getzlaf versus Kessel -- Getzlaf ha intangibles. The point was and is Kessel > Ryan. Kessel had a breakout year -- to suggest he'll never approach that again is nonsense -- he's only 25. And his "breakout year" was better than any year Ryan has had.

I can only imagine the numbers Kessel would put up playing with Perry and Getzlaf.

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