Thanks, you looked in your crystal ball? 2 years ago people were willing to give Grabo away for a bag of pucks, now he is untouchable. A smallish 51 pt fwd with limited intangibles is easily replaced. I suggest you research the list of prospects a little more.
It's not a crystal ball, it's just math. If you don't believe me, just ask yourself how many players the leafs have drafted (ever) with late 1sts / 2nds that have turned out better than Grabo.
the vast majority of draft picks fail to make the NHL, let alone become as good as Grabo - a centre who's produced at a 59pt pace the past two years, is very diligent defensively, and a very good puck-possession player in general.
It's not a crystal ball, it's just math. If you don't believe me, just ask yourself how many players the leafs have drafted (ever) with late 1sts / 2nds that have turned out better than Grabo.
the vast majority of draft picks fail to make the NHL, let alone become as good as Grabo - a centre who's produced at a 59pt pace the past two years, is very diligent defensively, and a very good puck-possession player in general.
Oh man, Subban would look mighty good in the Leafs system right now. A big winger like Kerdiles in 2 years? Pretty good.
It's not a crystal ball, it's just math. If you don't believe me, just ask yourself how many players the leafs have drafted (ever) with late 1sts / 2nds that have turned out better than Grabo.
True, but there's also the fact that you NEED a few players who are SIGNIFICANTLY better than Grabo in order to really contend for the SC.
I'm not specifically saying trade Grabo, but if you trade 4-5 2nd/3rd line players over the course of a few years, get 5 draft picks out of it, and one of those draft picks becomes a Jonathon Quick, Weber, Perry, Bergeron, Ward, Keith, etc. That will go a lot further to making a winner than holding onto Grabo will.
Grabo is a "known" quantity, but we also KNOW that he's not good enough to be a core piece on a SC team. He could be "filler" on a SC team. But filler is something you can get every single offseason in free agency, or when you need depth before a SC run you can trade for filler.
True "core" pieces though? Very few of those available via free agency and they're difficult to acquire via trade. The best way to increase your chances of getting those pieces? Picks/prospects. Trade away "known" secondary pieces for years while acquiring picks/prospects, and going by the odds, this will significantly increase your chances of acquiring multiple "core" pieces.
With that in mind, we have a good 4-5 players we should consider dumping. Let the prospects take their spots. Acquire picks/prospects. And maybe make a signing or two in free agency so that it doesn't hurt so much in the short term.
Like you said, it's just math. More picks/prospects = better chance of developing our own #1 G, #1 C, and #1 D.
Like you said, it's just math. More picks/prospects = better chance of developing our own #1 G, #1 C, and #1 D.
That's not necessarily true at all. Unless they're lottery picks, the chance of even getting a player as good as Grabo is marginal, not to mention the additional glaring hole we'd create by trading him.
In recent years we traded Antropov, Kaberle, Versteeg, Poni, Tlusty, Gill, Moore for Kenny Ryan, Tyler Biggs, Stuart Percy, Luca Caputi, Philip Paradis, Jimmy Hayes and Jesse Blacker.
How many of those kids you figure will end up being better than grabo, or better than the player that was traded for them?
In recent years we traded Antropov, Kaberle, Versteeg, Poni, Tlusty, Gill, Moore for Kenny Ryan, Tyler Biggs, Stuart Percy, Luca Caputi, Philip Paradis, Jimmy Hayes and Jesse Blacker.
How many of those kids you figure will end up being better than grabo, or better than the player that was traded for them?
You forgot Liles, Colborne, Leivo, Ross, Deschamps. Our prospects pool is far better than what those marginal players you mention would be today and the future. I'm not sure what your point is, unless you actually believe we were close to the cup with Antrropov, Kaberle, and Versteeg that we keep them together. Were we close to contending with those players?
The chances of getting a player as good as that with a late 1st / 2nd rounder are less than 1 in 5.
Even the chances of getting a grabo-level player with that kind of pick is closer to 1 in 10.
Gaustad got a 21st overall pick + 4th round pick.
I assume Grabo could have gotten a slightly better deal than Guastad. So saying Grabo would be = to just a late 1st or even just a 2nd round pick is a bit inaccurate. Then for this upcoming deadline, what do you think we'd get for Bozak, Connolly, Lombardi, and MacArthur?
Two late 1sts, a 2nd, and a couple mid round picks? Something like that? If you took all four of those guys off the team, i don't even think the team would be much worse. Actually it could even be better as prospects tend to be hungry to prove themselves. Prospects could fill their roles, or UFAs by the offseason could.
None of them even really excel in their role the way you'd expect a player on a SC calibre team to. 2nd line Centres on recent SC winners include M. Richards, Krejci, Sharp, Malkin, Zetterberg, Getzlaf, Brind'Amour, and B. Richards. All of them are better than Grabo.
Anyways, we should hold onto truly "core" pieces. But we shouldn't label other players as "core", just because theyre among our top 4-5 players on a team that finished 5th last league-wide.
You wouldn't do Grabo for Nick Kerdiles, Malcolm Subban, Oscar Dansk, Gaunce, Matteau, Collberg just to name a few? How would these guys look in a Leafs uniform in 2 or 3 years? Better than #84 I'll tell you that.
That's the problem with Leafs fans, lack of foresight and patience. Something I believe you have preached here.
Yes, I'd trade Grabovski for all those guys.
I like the odds of one of them turning out.
__________________
Woodlief
using his big frame to create space and his skating ability to find open lanes to drive the net. He stands 6-3 and is a natural goal scorer with plenty of confidence.
He's a scout's dream in the way he prepares himself and plays an unselfish game, making smart decisions with the puck. With his bloodlines, he certainly understands what it will take to make it at the next level.
That's not necessarily true at all. Unless they're lottery picks, the chance of even getting a player as good as Grabo is marginal, not to mention the additional glaring hole we'd create by trading him.
I agree, I would only trade grabbo if he is causing cap problems or if we have have a better player in the system. Since neither is currently true, I think he should stay.
And Im not even as in love with grabovski as others are.
None of them even really excel in their role the way you'd expect a player on a SC calibre team to. 2nd line Centres on recent SC winners include M. Richards, Krejci, Sharp, Malkin, Zetterberg, Getzlaf, Brind'Amour, and B. Richards. All of them are better than Grabo.
Anyways, we should hold onto truly "core" pieces. But we shouldn't label other players as "core", just because theyre among our top 4-5 players on a team that finished 5th last league-wide.
I don't think anyone would hesitate to trade Grabovski and + (Kadri/1st./?) for Zetterberg, Malkin, M.Richards, or Getzlaf.
Improve the NHL team, which is the goal, short term and/or long term.
As would I, most would also. Burke said he had a 1st in place for Grabo at one point, if this is true then conservatively speaking let's say it is in the 20-25 range.
Scanning the list of players available, wouldn't any of these players look good in our system right now. They are all going to play in the NHL, and some much better than Grabo has.
Scott Laughton
Mike Matheson
Malcolm Subban
Brendan Gaunce
Stefan Matteau
Oscar Dansk
Sebastian Collberg
Nicolas Kerdiles
Pontus Aberg
Phillip Di Giuseppe
As would I, most would also. Burke said he had a 1st in place for Grabo at one point, if this is true then conservatively speaking let's say it is in the 20-25 range.
Scanning the list of players available, wouldn't any of these players look good in our system right now. They are all going to play in the NHL, and some much better than Grabo has.
Scott Laughton
Mike Matheson
Malcolm Subban
Brendan Gaunce
Stefan Matteau
Oscar Dansk
Sebastian Collberg
Nicolas Kerdiles
Pontus Aberg
Phillip Di Giuseppe
I'd be pretty pissed off if Burke went and traded Grabo for any of those players right now. How can you say they are all going to play in the NHL? You have no idea how they will develop. We'd have to wait 3+ years for them to start playing in the NHL and hope they are as good as Grabo. Grabo is not the problem with this team. There is no one on this team-at this point in time- that could replace him. If you think Connolly could replace him then you are just looking at stats. Grabo brings more the the table than just points.
I'd be pretty pissed off if Burke went and traded Grabo for any of those players right now. How can you say they are all going to play in the NHL? You have no idea how they will develop. We'd have to wait 3+ years for them to start playing in the NHL and hope they are as good as Grabo. Grabo is not the problem with this team. There is no one on this team-at this point in time- that could replace him. If you think Connolly could replace him then you are just looking at stats. Grabo brings more the the table than just points.
I would be estastic to have Subban or Dansk in 2 or 3 years time, Kerdiles was very impressive at the US camp this summer, he is exactly more of what we need, a big strong winger, Mathieson was Button's sleeper pick of this draft. Laughton is a high character industrious winger. We are not winning the cup with Grabo as one of our top 6 fwds, to keep him only makes sense if we are still a rebuilding club that may draft high again. This is the only reason to keep Grabo. He will be 30 next January, he will be no use to this team when our prospects come into their own.
True, but there's also the fact that you NEED a few players who are SIGNIFICANTLY better than Grabo in order to really contend for the SC.
I'm not specifically saying trade Grabo, but if you trade 4-5 2nd/3rd line players over the course of a few years, get 5 draft picks out of it, and one of those draft picks becomes a Jonathon Quick, Weber, Perry, Bergeron, Ward, Keith, etc. That will go a lot further to making a winner than holding onto Grabo will.
Grabo is a "known" quantity, but we also KNOW that he's not good enough to be a core piece on a SC team. He could be "filler" on a SC team. But filler is something you can get every single offseason in free agency, or when you need depth before a SC run you can trade for filler.
True "core" pieces though? Very few of those available via free agency and they're difficult to acquire via trade. The best way to increase your chances of getting those pieces? Picks/prospects. Trade away "known" secondary pieces for years while acquiring picks/prospects, and going by the odds, this will significantly increase your chances of acquiring multiple "core" pieces.
With that in mind, we have a good 4-5 players we should consider dumping. Let the prospects take their spots. Acquire picks/prospects. And maybe make a signing or two in free agency so that it doesn't hurt so much in the short term.
Like you said, it's just math. More picks/prospects = better chance of developing our own #1 G, #1 C, and #1 D.
I'd be pretty pissed off if Burke went and traded Grabo for any of those players right now. How can you say they are all going to play in the NHL? You have no idea how they will develop. We'd have to wait 3+ years for them to start playing in the NHL and hope they are as good as Grabo. Grabo is not the problem with this team. There is no one on this team-at this point in time- that could replace him. If you think Connolly could replace him then you are just looking at stats. Grabo brings more the the table than just points.
Agree completely.
Someone would have to offer one of those players + 1st 2013 for me to think about it. I still wouldn't do it. We have no one in our organization who can fill that void right now.
As would I, most would also. Burke said he had a 1st in place for Grabo at one point, if this is true then conservatively speaking let's say it is in the 20-25 range.
Scanning the list of players available, wouldn't any of these players look good in our system right now. They are all going to play in the NHL, and some much better than Grabo has.
Scott Laughton
Mike Matheson
Malcolm Subban
Brendan Gaunce
Stefan Matteau
Oscar Dansk
Sebastian Collberg
Nicolas Kerdiles
Pontus Aberg
Phillip Di Giuseppe
Scan the last ten drafts at 20-30 and (exaggerate) tell me who you would take over Grabovski. I can tell you even at a great year like 2003 there is only 4. Most years there is one or two that in the long run, turn out better then Grabovski. That's 40% chance at getting a better player. Most in the later round in 2012 were considered servicable, not star studded players. Likely to make it, unlikely to be stars.
An average year like 2006 sees one player better in Gorioux, one arguably similar in Berglund, and one possibly filling a need for us in Varlomov. But there is a far better chance at grabbing a bust. There is still 7 players in that range of that draft that have yet to have more then a cup of coffee in the NHL. So a 70% chance at busting. 10% chance at getting a clearly better player, if Burke is into grabbing smaller centers that year.
Trading a decent 2C for for futures that can't help for years is too stupid a gamble for a team that may only be a season with new coaching away to sneak into the playoffs. Let alone the likely hood of Burke making the changes necessary to make us better. Grabovski will do until he is pushed out by Colbourne or Kadri.
He brings the secondary offense I wish we had when Sundin was here. He's not gritty but he isn't intimidated either. Solid 2 way play, sort of a jack of all trades, master of none. What more do you want when the team has so many other needs right now.
I agree with the sentiment others are feeling, that your focused on him unnecessarily.
I would be estastic to have Subban or Dansk in 2 or 3 years time, Kerdiles was very impressive at the US camp this summer, he is exactly more of what we need, a big strong winger, Mathieson was Button's sleeper pick of this draft. Laughton is a high character industrious winger. We are not winning the cup with Grabo as one of our top 6 fwds, to keep him only makes sense if we are still a rebuilding club that may draft high again. This is the only reason to keep Grabo. He will be 30 next January, he will be no use to this team when our prospects come into their own.
Yeah i'm a fan of Subban, Laughton and Kerdiles, but it just does not make any sense for us to move Grabo for any of them at this point. Grabo is our best center, and center is our weakest position so if someone is getting him from us they better be overpaying. I don't see why a team can't win the cup with Grabo as the 2nd line center. He is a streaky player, but he's still very useful when he isn't putting up points. I'll admit I am not a fan of the length of Grabo's contract (would prefer 3 years then re-evaluate where we are at with center prospects), but besides that I'm very happy to have him on our team and I see him as part of the solution.
Yeah i'm a fan of Subban, Laughton and Kerdiles, but it just does not make any sense for us to move Grabo for any of them at this point. Grabo is our best center, and center is our weakest position so if someone is getting him from us they better be overpaying. I don't see why a team can't win the cup with Grabo as the 2nd line center. He is a streaky player, but he's still very useful when he isn't putting up points. I'll admit I am not a fan of the length of Grabo's contract, but besides that I'm very happy to have him on our team and I see him as part of the solution.
JM, Got news for you, we are not winning the cup this year. Wouldn't it be prudent to load up in 2 or 3 years time?
Like you alluded to, there are 3 certain things in life.
Death
Taxes
and 1 or 2 long cold streaks in a Grabo season.
Scan the last ten drafts at 20-30 and (exaggerate) tell me who you would take over Grabovski. I can tell you even at a great year like 2003 there is only 4. Most years there is one or two that in the long run, turn out better then Grabovski. That's 40% chance at getting a better player. Most in the later round in 2012 were considered servicable, not star studded players. Likely to make it, unlikely to be stars.
An average year like 2006 sees one player better in Gorioux, one arguably similar in Berglund, and one possibly filling a need for us in Varlomov. But there is a far better chance at grabbing a bust. There is still 7 players in that range of that draft that have yet to have more then a cup of coffee in the NHL. So a 70% chance at busting. 10% chance at getting a clearly better player, if Burke is into grabbing smaller centers that year.
Trading a decent 2C for for futures that can't help for years is too stupid a gamble for a team that may only be a season with new coaching away to sneak into the playoffs. Let alone the likely hood of Burke making the changes necessary to make us better. Grabovski will do until he is pushed out by Colbourne or Kadri.
He brings the secondary offense I wish we had when Sundin was here. He's not gritty but he isn't intimidated either. Solid 2 way play, sort of a jack of all trades, master of none. What more do you want when the team has so many other needs right now.
I agree with the sentiment others are feeling, that your focused on him unnecessarily.
Bergeron, Krejci, Justin Schultz, PK Subban, Letang just off the top of my head that are available after #25. There are a tonne of impact players available that are better.
JM, Got news for you, we are not winning the cup this year. Wouldn't it be prudent to load up in 2 or 3 years time?
Like you alluded to, there are 3 certain things in life.
Death
Taxes
and 1 or 2 long cold streaks in a Grabo season.
Never said we were winning the cup this year. We should be competitive in 2-3 years and I see no reason why Grabo can't be just as good then as he is now.
I will be more willing to move Grabo when we have a center prospect in the system that I am confident will turn into a top 6 nhl center. Hopefully this years draft helps with this.
I think replacing Grabo would be harder than you think. He's definitely one of the better 2nd line centers in the NHL at this point in time.
And no one would trade Grabo either last year had the chance presented itself, not even to draft Boone Jenner? That's what I am talking about. Boone in a year or 2? Scary thought he and Biggs together, but the refrain with some leafs fans is let's just hold onto our mediocre losing players because we overrate them or we feel sentimental.
