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The Armchair GM Thread - Part XXX - Naughty Edition

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Old
10-10-2012, 01:10 PM
  #301
dave babych returns
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Jesus Christ, thank you pitseleh.

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Old
10-10-2012, 01:12 PM
  #302
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dave babych returns View Post
Yeah, like Manny Malhotra. He vastly outperformed Jannik Hansen last year, if he'd had as many offensive zone starts as Jannik he'd have been on for double the offensive production.

Apparently.



Of course not because they outperformed that back when those were pretty much their offensive zone start figures for a given season.
Regression?

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10-10-2012, 01:13 PM
  #303
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Regression?
Great post, you've shed a whole new light on the subject.

Now just explain to me why Manny Malhotra is so much more efficient than Jannik Hansen and we'll really be onto something.

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10-10-2012, 01:15 PM
  #304
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
I just question how much these extreme offensive zone starts are padding the Sedins stats, and how much the lack of zone starts is holding back the offensive production of other forwards?
I question how much that matters? 2011 was one of the better regular seasons ever by a team, and even with the loss of Manny (who was a big part of that) we made the finals. I know it seems like a long time ago, but that was the last time this team was healthy and really firing on all cylinders.

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10-10-2012, 01:16 PM
  #305
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Booth-Schroeder-Kassian
That's a disaster waiting to happen imo, I wouldn't put two rookies with Booth.

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10-10-2012, 01:32 PM
  #306
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dave babych returns View Post
Great post, you've shed a whole new light on the subject.

Now just explain to me why Manny Malhotra is so much more efficient than Jannik Hansen and we'll really be onto something.
Simple. From strictly looking at zone starts Malhotra is on the ice for more than half the goals for that Hansen is, despite having a quarter of the offensive zone starts. He's begins in his own zone around 90% of the time versus 60% for Hansen, yet has only been on the ice for 3 more goals against.

In terms of zone starts I don't think there really is much correlation between that and results, and that we should focus more on playing the matchups, except where blatantly advantageous (icing calls).

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10-10-2012, 01:34 PM
  #307
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Simple. From strictly looking at zone starts Malhotra is on the ice for more than half the goals for that Hansen is, despite having a quarter of the offensive zone starts. He's begins in his own zone around 90% of the time versus 60% for Hansen, yet has only been on the ice for 3 more goals against.

In terms of zone starts I don't think there really is much correlation between that and results, and that we should focus more on playing the matchups, except where blatantly advantageous (icing calls).
So your posts about the Sedins padding their stats with the zone starts they are given are completely disingenuous then, rather than simply horribly misguided?

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10-10-2012, 01:38 PM
  #308
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dave babych returns View Post
So your posts about the Sedins padding their stats with the zone starts they are given are completely disingenuous then, rather than simply horribly misguided?
I think it's one or the other.

Either zone starts play a heavy role in a players success and we are missing a huge opportunity to boost the production of our other players, or there isn't as big of a correlation as we think and rather than focusing on getting those offensive zone starts for one line at any cost we should pay more attention to the matchups.

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10-10-2012, 02:12 PM
  #309
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
I think it's one or the other.

Either zone starts play a heavy role in a players success and we are missing a huge opportunity to boost the production of our other players, or there isn't as big of a correlation as we think and rather than focusing on getting those offensive zone starts for one line at any cost we should pay more attention to the matchups.
You're ignoring the success the team has had with the strategy in favour of how it affects individual statistics. Who cares how it is affecting Hansen's stats if it's helping us win?

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10-10-2012, 02:47 PM
  #310
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
You're ignoring the success the team has had with the strategy in favour of how it affects individual statistics. Who cares how it is affecting Hansen's stats if it's helping us win?
Is it helping us win or holding us back from even more success?

Is it helping is win? Or is it merely a coincidence and we would have been winning even without this strategy?

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10-10-2012, 02:51 PM
  #311
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Personally I don't think zone starts are that important to determining a players skill, with exception to the faceoff circle. Malhotra is much better than Henrik on the draw, which is probably why Vigneault tries to keep them in opposite zones for the start.

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10-10-2012, 02:52 PM
  #312
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pitseleh View Post
All I have to say is that the 'analysis' in this thread is laughable.



QualComp is based on +/-, Corsi QualComp on Corsi.

The best quality of competition measure is TOI Qualcomp, which measures the average TOI numbers of a player's competition. Good players get more ice time, which means that you're actually sussing out some measure of quality. Here is the Canucks's chart for last season:



The Sedins, by far, played the toughest minutes on the team.


Yes. I saw this on nhlnumbers.com. They contend that TOI QC because the best players usually play more regardless. So the scale should favour the twins. Instead of just looking at Ozone starts.



Ill post the link when I find it.

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10-10-2012, 03:01 PM
  #313
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Our team has won the most games in the past what 4 years & yet there is complaining about our 2 former Art Ross winner's Zone starts #firstworldproblems

Giving someone like Hansen more offensive zone starts may give him a couple extra points overall but I don't think it will make some huge difference.

Whats so wrong about a coach coaching to player's strengths anyway? Fairness? or What? I like that our Coach does this to be honest & hope he continues to do so as its been working great since being implemented.

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10-10-2012, 05:16 PM
  #314
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As promised: http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/8/16/a-co...ed-on-ice-time


There's also a few good articles by Eric T. indexed at the bottom. Give them a read if you have time.

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10-10-2012, 05:21 PM
  #315
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I want our top 9 to look like this at the start of the season:

Sedin-Sedin-Kassian
Booth-Schroeder-Burrows
Higgins-Malhotra-Hansen

To give Schroeder and Malhotra to show where they're at, and then run with:

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows
Booth-Kesler-Kassian
Higgins-Schroeder-Hansen

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10-10-2012, 06:03 PM
  #316
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
I want our top 9 to look like this at the start of the season:

Sedin-Sedin-Kassian
Booth-Schroeder-Burrows
Higgins-Malhotra-Hansen

To give Schroeder and Malhotra to show where they're at, and then run with:

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows
Booth-Kesler-Kassian
Higgins-Schroeder-Hansen



Schroeder is very important to this season (if there is one). The guy was called out by his GM. Sucked it up and went to work, but still didn't put up gaudy totals. Then you have guys like Palmieri going PPG in the AHL, Johansson already doing well in the NHL and you have to wonder where Schroeder ranks by comparison?



He's a playmaker, and his point totals are more tied to his teammates because of it. But at some point he's going to have to show what he is truly capable of. Now is that time.

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Old
10-10-2012, 06:11 PM
  #317
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bleach Clean View Post
Schroeder is very important to this season (if there is one). The guy was called out by his GM. Sucked it up and went to work, but still didn't put up gaudy totals. Then you have guys like Palmieri going PPG in the AHL, Johansson already doing well in the NHL and you have to wonder where Schroeder ranks by comparison?



He's a playmaker, and his point totals are more tied to his teammates because of it. But at some point he's going to have to show what he is truly capable of. Now is that time.
Schroeder did improve his goal totals last year though, he dropped some assists but I feel that was likely do to playing with the likes of Oreskovich...

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10-10-2012, 06:56 PM
  #318
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scurr View Post
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stati...34+45+46+63+67

That's from Manny's best season here... I don't think you've taken the time to have a good understanding of that stat.
Corsi without context doesn't tell us much of anything.

Corsi Rel Qoc has Malhotra as the more effective player than Henrik Sedin...

Though the standard Qoc metric is pretty much useless.

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10-10-2012, 07:10 PM
  #319
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
I want our top 9 to look like this at the start of the season:

Sedin-Sedin-Kassian
Booth-Schroeder-Burrows
Higgins-Malhotra-Hansen

To give Schroeder and Malhotra to show where they're at, and then run with:

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows
Booth-Kesler-Kassian
Higgins-Schroeder-Hansen
Kassian is off to a slow start in the AHL pre-season. Yes it's just pre-season, but after showing nothing offensively last season for us, and already nothing in the AHL pre-season, you want to give him a spot on our top line?

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Old
10-10-2012, 07:27 PM
  #320
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Kassian is off to a slow start in the AHL pre-season. Yes it's just pre-season, but after showing nothing offensively last season for us, and already nothing in the AHL pre-season, you want to give him a spot on our top line?
Sink or swim. We'll have to dilute ourforward group anyways so we're not completely outmatched. At least by the time Kesler's back we'll know if Kassian can do anything. If he can't put up points with the Sedins, then back to the AHL he goes.

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10-10-2012, 07:45 PM
  #321
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
Sink or swim. We'll have to dilute ourforward group anyways so we're not completely outmatched. At least by the time Kesler's back we'll know if Kassian can do anything. If he can't put up points with the Sedins, then back to the AHL he goes.
Would rather roll with:

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows
Booth-Schroeder-Hansen
Raymond-Lapierre-Higgins
Weise-Malhotra-Kassian

and then

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows
Higgins-Kesler-Hansen
Booth-Schroeder-Kassian
Raymond-Malhotra-Weise

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10-10-2012, 08:37 PM
  #322
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Would rather roll with:

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows
Booth-Schroeder-Hansen
Raymond-Lapierre-Higgins
Weise-Malhotra-Kassian

and then

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows
Higgins-Kesler-Hansen
Booth-Schroeder-Kassian
Raymond-Malhotra-Weise
If we stuck Kassian on the 4th line with Malhotra and Weise, it's no wonder people are going to be disappointed in him.

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10-10-2012, 08:41 PM
  #323
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vankiller Whale View Post
If we stuck Kassian on the 4th line with Malhotra and Weise, it's no wonder people are going to be disappointed in him.
I'd prefer he starts in the AHL on the top line actually, until he shows something down there (in our organization under our system). I don't mind him on our 3rd line either, but adding a forward who has shown less at the NHL level than the guys we used last year means our offense can only get worse. Sad to think our playoff offense could get any worse.

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10-10-2012, 08:43 PM
  #324
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Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
I'd prefer he starts in the AHL on the top line actually, until he shows something down there (in our organization under our system). I don't mind him on our 3rd line either, but adding a forward who has shown less at the NHL level than the guys we used last year means our offense can only get worse. Sad to think our playoff offense could get any worse.
I can't tell if you're talking about Schroeder or Kassian. Schroeder has never prduced like Kassian as a pro.

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10-10-2012, 09:17 PM
  #325
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Quote:
Originally Posted by y2kcanucks View Post
Would rather roll with:

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows
Booth-Schroeder-Hansen
Raymond-Lapierre-Higgins
Weise-Malhotra-Kassian

and then

Sedin-Sedin-Burrows
Higgins-Kesler-Hansen
Booth-Schroeder-Kassian
Raymond-Malhotra-Weise
Lapierre instead of Weise though, right?

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