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Old
10-11-2012, 09:05 PM
  #26
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I think Scheifele will work out just fine. He is unlikely to develop into an elite # 1 centre, but there is a good chance he developes into an above average defensively responsible # 2 with size and great hockey sence. Something a contender needs and would make him a solid top 10 pick.

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10-11-2012, 09:20 PM
  #27
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Originally Posted by Daddy Longlegs View Post
I knew this was gonna be the case. Scheifele was never supposed to be a #8 overall pick. To pass on Cotourier and Hamilton for him was crazy risky. Could have made Chevy look like a hero. Now he's gonna look like a goat. That's the risk you run when you make ballsy moves. I see Scheifele being a Wellwood type player and that's it. I say trade him now while his value is at it's highest. For say a one Matt Duchene perhaps.
Hold on...
You can think that Coturier and Hamilton would of been a better pick... fine that's a decent and fair opinion...
BUT WELLWOOD??? OMG
TERRIBLE comparison... how many fights did Wellwood get into?
They both have great vision but that's where the comparison stops.

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10-11-2012, 09:37 PM
  #28
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Hold on...
You can think that Coturier and Hamilton would of been a better pick... fine that's a decent and fair opinion...
BUT WELLWOOD??? OMG
TERRIBLE comparison... how many fights did Wellwood get into?
They both have great vision but that's where the comparison stops.
I had a feeling someone would jump on me for that one. I simply see distinct similarities in their game. Not aggressive, good vision, poor/slow skating, shy's away from getting hit.

The only difference is Scheifele's size, and that he may still develop into something better (although I doubt it). Whereas Wellwood is clearly no longer improving.

Sorry, this is just how I feel. Scheifele might slightly exceed Wellwood, but minimally if at all IMO.


Last edited by Daddy Longlegs: 10-11-2012 at 09:39 PM. Reason: Spelling
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10-11-2012, 09:47 PM
  #29
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This year's WJC will tell us alot about Scheifele. He's expected to play a huge role for this team, so lets see how he handles it.

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10-11-2012, 09:47 PM
  #30
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Originally Posted by Daddy Longlegs View Post
Not aggressive, good vision, poor/slow skating, shy's away from getting hit.
When was the last time you watched him? He was shying away from hits in his brief pre-season stint with the Jets because he was a bit under 170lbs playing against seasoned pro players (albeit AHL level players primarily but their size is the point here). Since then he's played with an edge and was the target of a lot of ire in the OHL playoffs to the point that he was taken off the ice for a few shifts in the series against Ottawa, I believe.

His skating and balance are still a bit awkward but he's a lot faster than he looks and his positioning and sense makes up for it a lot of the time allowing him to get back. He's no slouch on a breakaway either but at his level of play there are some great defensemen who would put the best in the OHL to shame in speed.

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10-11-2012, 10:00 PM
  #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Daddy Longlegs View Post
I had a feeling someone would jump on me for that one. I simply see distinct similarities in their game. Not aggressive, good vision, poor/slow skating, shy's away from getting hit.

The only difference is Scheifele's size, and that he may still develop into something better (although I doubt it). Whereas Wellwood is clearly no longer improving.

Sorry, this is just how I feel. Scheifele might slightly exceed Wellwood, but minimally if at all IMO.
I thought Mark did an excellant job finishing his checks against Russia this summer and outside the energy line he was the most physical forward in the top 6. Also although his balance still needs to get better his speed and overall skating has really improved. Welly is smallish and also has a history of being a bit of an enigma as far as his commitment to fitness whereas mark is is 6'3" and he put on 15 pounds of muscle this past year and is really dedicated to getting bigger. Mark also made big strides in his defensive game and positioning last year. I really don't see much in common with these two except for vision and hockey IQ and Mark has a ways to go to get to Wellwoods level but I think Mark has a better shot and is less reluctant to use it.

DLL..... I think you could have come up with a better comparison

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10-11-2012, 10:01 PM
  #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PostmaFan1 View Post
This year's WJC will tell us alot about Scheifele. He's expected to play a huge role for this team, so lets see how he handles it.
WJC is a tiny sample of games, I don't think that it tells us much about anybody. It's too small a sample. Plenty of players who looked great there busted and plenty of players who struggled or never even made the team were great in NHL.

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10-11-2012, 10:03 PM
  #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Daddy Longlegs View Post
I had a feeling someone would jump on me for that one. I simply see distinct similarities in their game. Not aggressive, good vision, poor/slow skating, shy's away from getting hit.

The only difference is Scheifele's size, and that he may still develop into something better (although I doubt it). Whereas Wellwood is clearly no longer improving.

Sorry, this is just how I feel. Scheifele might slightly exceed Wellwood, but minimally if at all IMO.
Sorry but somethings are feelings but somethings are just plain silly.

I have no idea where you got this not aggressive thing from... The kid is no "Sutter" but has tons of aggression. How many fighting penalty and roughing majors have you seen Wellwood get, juniors or pro. Sorry but it is a terrible comparison as their game and styles are completely different.
Hockey Prospectus:
Quote:
Scheifele projects as a solid-average to above-average physical player
Scheifele's skating is knocked for poor balance and mechanics while Wellwood is more for having low top speed. Scheifele isn't that bad for topspeed and many scouts have noted that.
Hockey Prospectus:
Quote:
Scheifele's skating showed notable improvement this season, even at times looking pro-average

Some more professional comparisons in styles:
OHL Insider
Quote:
Comparable: Joe Thornton
The Scouting Report
Quote:
Skill-set Comparison Playmaking version of Jeff Carter
The Hockey Writers
Quote:
NHL Player(s) Comparison:
- At his best:
Paul Statsny
Brad Richards
Mike Ribeiro
Anze Kopitar

PS I'm not some super homer who thinks Scheifele is the next coming of Jesus.


EDIT:
Please watch this game if you think he's "soft"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jE5Id...feature=relmfu


Last edited by garret9: 10-11-2012 at 10:21 PM.
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10-11-2012, 10:14 PM
  #34
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Originally Posted by PostmaFan1 View Post
This year's WJC will tell us alot about Scheifele. He's expected to play a huge role for this team, so lets see how he handles it.
Other players to have bad WJC:
Couturier?!?!

You know who actually had a good WJC the year Scheifele played:
Mark Stone?!?!

It's a friggin 6-7 game tournament??? Anyone can get lucky and hit a streak...
Remove one game and Huberdeau finished with 0G and 4A!!

Team Canada
Stone 7G 3A
Strome 3G 6A
Huberdeau 1G 8A
Hamilton 1G 6A
Scheifele 3G 3A

Oh ya he was terrrrrrrrrrrrrrible........

Look how luck can even affect large samples... Wellwood should of had like 6 less goals but had inflated sh%... Fehr should of had like 5 more goals and 8 assists but had league's worst team sh% when he hit the ice because God hates him... So imagine what a small sample like 6 games can do....

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10-11-2012, 10:21 PM
  #35
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Im not saying it will tell us one way or another what Scheifele will become in 6 or 7 games. Im just saying with the lockout going on alot of Hockey fans attention will turn even more to this tourny. Scheifele will be a vet on this team with alot expected of him, if he fails to deleiver it will give us some insight into how he handles big situations.

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10-11-2012, 10:24 PM
  #36
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The nice upshot of the lockout is we don't have to have a Scheifele-Couturier debate every time Couturier does something while wearing hockey gear!

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10-11-2012, 10:28 PM
  #37
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Quote:
Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Other players to have bad WJC:
Couturier?!?!

You know who actually had a good WJC the year Scheifele played:
Mark Stone?!?!

It's a friggin 6-7 game tournament??? Anyone can get lucky and hit a streak...
Remove one game and Huberdeau finished with 0G and 4A!!

Team Canada
Stone 7G 3A
Strome 3G 6A
Huberdeau 1G 8A
Hamilton 1G 6A
Scheifele 3G 3A

Oh ya he was terrrrrrrrrrrrrrible........

Look how luck can even affect large samples... Wellwood should of had like 6 less goals but had inflated sh%... Fehr should of had like 5 more goals and 8 assists but had league's worst team sh% when he hit the ice because God hates him... So imagine what a small sample like 6 games can do....
I wasn't talking about last years tourny. I was talking about the one coming up.

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10-11-2012, 10:28 PM
  #38
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Originally Posted by PostmaFan1 View Post
Im not saying it will tell us one way or another what Scheifele will become in 6 or 7 games. Im just saying with the lockout going on alot of Hockey fans attention will turn even more to this tourny. Scheifele will be a vet on this team with alot expected of him, if he fails to deleiver it will give us some insight into how he handles big situations.
Handling big game situations, AKA being clutch, is a facade like truculant shot blockers being good defensive minded players:
http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/10/3/clut...ame-performers

Summary
Quote:
CONCLUSION

The number of people whose performance improves or declines in the playoffs is almost exactly what we would expect from simple variance over the small playoff sample sizes. It is thus hard to argue that clutch talent is a significant factor in playoff performance, or that people who have had improved outcomes in the playoffs should be expected to continue to do so.

Moreover, even if there were some players who genuinely performed better in the playoffs than in the regular season, I am not sure this would be something we should celebrate. If a player really does improve his scoring skill in the playoffs, there are only two possible conclusions:
  • Everyone else chokes under pressure and performs worse, but the pressure doesn't bother him and he maintains his normal skill level. Since his opponents' play is declining, he scores more points. However, if this were the case, we would almost certainly not see the results above -- we would expect to see a lot more players outperforming expectations if all it took was not choking.
  • He performs at less than his full ability during the regular season, then turns it on for the playoffs. Is coasting during the regular season really something to celebrate? Aren't the players who give their all in every game more noble than the ones who wait until they think a game is worthy of their full effort?
We don't see evidence that players really do elevate their performance in the playoffs, but even if we did, I would argue that those players might be more deserving of criticism than praise.

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10-11-2012, 10:28 PM
  #39
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Originally Posted by PostmaFan1 View Post
I wasn't talking about last years tourny. I was talking about the one coming up.
And if the last one can be a joke of a survey size why can't the next one?

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10-11-2012, 10:32 PM
  #40
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Handling big game situations, AKA being clutch, is a facade like truculant shot blockers being good defensive minded players:
http://nhlnumbers.com/2012/10/3/clut...ame-performers

Summary
Im not talking about being better then everyone when it matters. I was thinking more along the lines of not dissapearing in the big games ie Phil Kessel.

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10-11-2012, 10:34 PM
  #41
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
And if the last one can be a joke of a survey size why can't the next one?
Because you have to evaluate talent somehow. Look at how little time some players get to show what they have in training camps.

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10-11-2012, 10:36 PM
  #42
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Originally Posted by PostmaFan1 View Post
Because you have to evaluate talent somehow. Look at how little time some players get to show what they have in training camps.
That is why teams send amateur scouts out 11 months a year

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10-11-2012, 10:39 PM
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That is why teams send amateur scouts out 11 months a year
I get that. But some games matter more then others. If guys seem to dissapear when games get more attention then your average wednesday night game in november. Its not a small sample size because it a short tourny or one game. Its more what I would like to call a trend.

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10-11-2012, 10:44 PM
  #44
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Originally Posted by PostmaFan1 View Post
Im not talking about being better then everyone when it matters. I was thinking more along the lines of not dissapearing in the big games ie Phil Kessel.
That's still disputed by this.
It's just the other tail of the normal curve. AKA it's a figment of fans imaginations.

My point is if either "clutch" existed or "people dissapearing in big games" existed than you would see an increase in spred from what happens in normal games... but you don't.

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10-11-2012, 10:46 PM
  #45
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
That's still disputed by this.
It's just the other tail of the normal curve. AKA it's a figment of fans imaginations.
Ok so phil Kessel doesn't dissapear when it matters? I just imagine that?

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10-11-2012, 10:47 PM
  #46
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
That's still disputed by this.
It's just the other tail of the normal curve. AKA it's a figment of fans imaginations.
What about Bobby Lu for that matter?

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10-11-2012, 10:51 PM
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
That's still disputed by this.
It's just the other tail of the normal curve. AKA it's a figment of fans imaginations.

My point is if either "clutch" existed or "people dissapearing in big games" existed than you would see an increase in spred from what happens in normal games... but you don't.
On the flip side what about Patrick Roy? The guy is famous for his "clutch" performances.

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10-11-2012, 10:51 PM
  #48
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Originally Posted by PostmaFan1 View Post
Ok so phil Kessel doesn't dissapear when it matters? I just imagine that?
I can't speak individually for Kessel but if 99% of the NHL is the same; I'm sure it is here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PostmaFan1 View Post
What about Bobby Lu for that matter?
Definately... In 5 playoff appearances he's only has had ONE where he was below league average...
He's a perfect example on how you are just imagining it OR that it can be from luck, small sample size, or other factors of variance.

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10-11-2012, 10:52 PM
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Originally Posted by PostmaFan1 View Post
On the flip side what about Patrick Roy? The guy is famous for his "clutch" performances.
Go read the actual article...
Quote:
In other words, we don't need to invoke clutch skill to explain our distributions -- they fit almost perfectly with what we'd expect from natural variation.

We see a similar result when we look at goalies.

There are 52 goalies whom we would expect to have allowed at least 10 goals, so we might expect two or three to be outside the 95% envelope, and we actually see three. So like with forwards, we see that some players have outperformed expectations, but the number of clutch performers is just what we would expect through simple random chance
PS Roy is not one of the 3 goalies that performed better than his regular season performance statistically

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10-11-2012, 10:55 PM
  #50
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Originally Posted by garret9 View Post
Go read the actual article...
Do you beleive everything your government tells you as well?

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