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The end of a (brief) era: John Farrell off to Boston in exchange for SS Mike Aviles

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Old
10-12-2012, 09:59 PM
  #51
Woodman19
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Originally Posted by Epictetus View Post
Please argue that; I would love to see it, especially because you want Edwin Jackson at a sickening contract.
http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.as...ion=P&pitch=FA

That is my biggest argument. Yes, he has not declined in peripherals to such a massive degree but they are declining. I know people like certain players and falling in love with them takes objectivity away from the argument but the fact is he is not going to be getting any better. His performance is largely explainable by that loss in velocity which would hint that unless he eats his spinach and gains it back then he is likely to be what he was this year going forward.


In regards to Edwin Jackson, I "like" him because opposite of Haren, he has improving peripherals over the last 3 seasons. That would indicate that it is indeed possible to continue recent success and perhaps even improve upon it. When it comes to free agency and starting pitching every contract is "Sickening" Just look at last years free agency class.

C.J. Wilson 5 Years 77.5 (15.5)
Mark Buerhle 4 Years 58.0 (14.5)
Edwin Jackson 1 Year 11.0
Ryan Dempster 1 Year 11.0


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Old
10-12-2012, 10:26 PM
  #52
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I would be happy with Haren and Marcum added to the rotation both may not posses the stuff they once had but are veterans who know how to pitch and overcome drop in velocity with smart pitching. They would bring stability to the rotation.

You will need to overpay for Haren but if you go 2 yrs @ 14 and 3rd @ 15 if he has pitched 400 innings over the previous 2 years

Marcum 2yrs @15 total 7.5 per year

You go into a 4 game series with morrow, Haren ,Romero, marcum you may not have an ace but 4 guys with the ability to win every time out. Throw Happ at 5 and a decent rotation it is

Maybe you can flip Escobar for Jason Kubel. Arizona needs to move an OF and need an SS. Kubel provides that LH power bat to hit 5 behind EE and fill LF

Those 3 moves allows the kids like Gose and Sierra get more time in Buffalo and better to see them in a better league than Vegas

Signing Haren and Marcum allow Hutch and Drabek both to go back to AAA and get 1.5 years of rehab in AAA and be ready to come back strong and with innings under their belt to avoid the Strausberg shutdown

All that is left is to deal for a 2b and DH to fill

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Old
10-13-2012, 01:33 AM
  #53
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Originally Posted by Epictetus View Post
A 4 year, 40-45 million dollar deal for a pitcher like Haren is an absolute bargain if that's what you are suggesting.
Pre 2012 Haren? Sure. But now? I'd say that's more of a fair price than a bargain.

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Haren's fastball isn't his best pitch, it usually just follows up with his off-speed stuff. And as you said, velocity is not nearly a big deal to Haren. He's one of the few pitchers in baseball who can easily strike you out without relying on a fastball or a perennial go-to-pitch.

I fail to see how a decline in fastball velocity (89.8 to 88.5) suddenly makes everyone throw in a white flag.
I know but velocity is down all across the board. Splitter was down nearly two ticks. Curveball was down nearly 2 ticks. Cutter wasn't down as much (0.7). Fastball was down 1.5 ticks and when your velocity starts going down all across the board, it makes a difference. Yes, he doesn't exactly rely on his velocity but it makes a difference when your velocity is down 1-2 ticks. Halladay velocity went down as well and he started getting hit harder as well. I do think both of these pitchers are better than the years they had and they will adjust but will both becomes aces and top 15 pitchers in baseball again? They might but at this point, I can't say that will happen due to their age and velocity decline but that doesn't mean they can't be good or still even great pitchers.

I just wouldn't be paying him 15M+ and expecting him to be that ace or a great #2 starter.

Quote:
The Angels are declining him because a) they feel the money could be worked out with Grienke and b) Haren has made it known he likes to play for his hometown team, and is open to the possibility of signing long-term at a reduced price. In other words, he's made it known that it's not all about money to him.

I fail to see how based on the premise of the Angels declining his option that he is suddenly a #3 pitcher. The dude was a top 15 pitcher in baseball before this season.
No, they are declining because they don't think Haren is worth that much money and yes, they would rather spend that money trying to sign Grienke. If possible, they would probably like to decline and re-sign him at a lower cost even if they can't sign Grienke.

Either way, if they thought he was worth the option, they could pick it up regardless or not they sign Grienke. If they re-sign Grienke and feel like they don't have the money for him, then they could use trade him but they are not doing that because he is worth that money.

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Agreed. I think adding him is the best move the Jays' can make rotation-wise.
Disagree. Grienke is the best option but I think Haren is anywhere between the 2nd best option to 4th (Peavy, Sanchez in the mix). I think Peavy is a great option that isn't being talked about much.

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10-13-2012, 02:02 AM
  #54
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Peavy would be my favourite option, but who knows what he'd be asking AA for.

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10-13-2012, 02:19 AM
  #55
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Peavy would be my favourite option, but who knows what he'd be asking AA for.
12-15M over 3-4 years is probably what he would get. Will be interesting to see if a team actually does go 5 years on him because before this season, he was having trouble staying healthy.

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10-13-2012, 02:34 AM
  #56
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IMO, it would be wise to stick with Drabek and Hutchinson and give them a shot when they return. A full year of experience for Alvarez could be beneficial as well.

I think this team actually needs position players more than pitchers.

We have a need for a 2B, a DH and maybe even a LF, unless we start with Gose at CF, move Rasmus to LF and Bautista at RF. But AA has come on the record and said he plans on having Hechevarria and Gose start years in the minors.

All I want are capable replacements for Lind and Johnson. I want them far away from this team. Ken Rosenthal mentioned Torii Hunter as a possibility and I'm warm to the idea. He's an amazing club house guy and can still play.

The rotation with

Romero
Morrow
Happ
Alvarez
Hutchinson/Drabek

is good enough IMO and has potential.

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Old
10-13-2012, 02:53 AM
  #57
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Hutch is slated to return in maybe August or September. Doubt Drabek comes back next season. Either way, both will need a decent amount of rehab time so don't expect ANYTHING out of them.

Doubt Drabek comes back as a starter either. The rotation is the biggest hole by far. That's what needs to be addressed more than anything. One of Happ/Alvarez needs to start out in the minors. If Happ has no options then too bad for Alvarez.

2 legit starters need to be added no matter what.

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10-13-2012, 07:37 AM
  #58
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Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem View Post
I know but (Haren's) velocity is down all across the board. Splitter was down nearly two ticks. Curveball was down nearly 2 ticks. Cutter wasn't down as much (0.7). Fastball was down 1.5 ticks and when your velocity starts going down all across the board, it makes a difference. Yes, he doesn't exactly rely on his velocity but it makes a difference when your velocity is down 1-2 ticks. Halladay velocity went down as well and he started getting hit harder as well. I do think both of these pitchers are better than the years they had and they will adjust but will both becomes aces and top 15 pitchers in baseball again? They might but at this point, I can't say that will happen due to their age and velocity decline but that doesn't mean they can't be good or still even great pitchers.

I just wouldn't be paying him 15M+ and expecting him to be that ace or a great #2 starter.
I do think some of that velocity is attributable to the back injury, so there's a chance that after a winter of rehab he could recover it. However, as a guy with back injuries myself, I know it's a tricky proposition, one of the reasons I thought his market price might stay within the Jays' reach.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem View Post
Disagree. Grienke is the best option but I think Haren is anywhere between the 2nd best option to 4th (Peavy, Sanchez in the mix). I think Peavy is a great option that isn't being talked about much.
I'm not sold on Peavy as a reliable top-of-the-rotation arm, but I suspect that's what he's going to be asking for which to my mind puts him out of the Jays' reach. Sanchez is a possibility.

Greinke... Great arm, but that's not the only thing I'm looking for in this signing. I want a guy who can be a leader in the bullpen, who can help show the younger pitchers how to carry yourself as a major leaguer. Greinke is a terrific pitcher hen that's all you ask him to do, but his social anxiety issues make him a poor choice in a market with a lot of attention, like the Jays are going to have in the next few years (two all-sports radio stations, two all-sports TV networks, three or four newspapers... A lot of pressure and eyeballs). So I don't see Greinke wanting to sign here, and I don't see him having the kind of impact I'd be looking for from him if he did.

Haren's the top draw for me, but if I can get a live young top-of-the-rotation arm through trade, and a steady #3/4 like Marcum to provide that experience and stability, I'll be satisfied.

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Old
10-13-2012, 07:44 AM
  #59
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Originally Posted by Dark Knight View Post
IMO, it would be wise to stick with Drabek and Hutchinson and give them a shot when they return. A full year of experience for Alvarez could be beneficial as well.

I think this team actually needs position players more than pitchers.

We have a need for a 2B, a DH and maybe even a LF, unless we start with Gose at CF, move Rasmus to LF and Bautista at RF. But AA has come on the record and said he plans on having Hechevarria and Gose start years in the minors.

All I want are capable replacements for Lind and Johnson. I want them far away from this team. Ken Rosenthal mentioned Torii Hunter as a possibility and I'm warm to the idea. He's an amazing club house guy and can still play.

The rotation with

Romero
Morrow
Happ
Alvarez
Hutchinson/Drabek

is good enough IMO and has potential.
It's not an "either/or" situation: Anthopolous needs to address both the rotation and positional holes. (He needs to decide which bullpen arms to ring back too).

But even if Drabek and Hutchison were healthy (don't count on either for 2013), the only addition you've made to the starting rotation from last spring is Happ, a #5 guy. And you're counting on Romero to bounce back and be an ace again, which is a high risk proposition. Of course the rotation has promise: it's very young overall. But that also means it's unpredictable and unreliable, as this season proved (even before the injuries). Tr Jays absolutely need to add two legit starters, including a top-2 arm, this winter.

And yes, the Jays also need to address DH, LF and 2B (although Hechavarria has shown he is a legit "do nothing" option for 2B).

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10-13-2012, 08:55 AM
  #60
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Peavy would be my favourite option, but who knows what he'd be asking AA for.
He's my favourite option of the off season but I think the chances are very slim of him coming here.

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10-13-2012, 08:56 AM
  #61
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Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem View Post
12-15M over 3-4 years is probably what he would get. Will be interesting to see if a team actually does go 5 years on him because before this season, he was having trouble staying healthy.
I wouldn't have any problem with the 3-4 year deal but 5 plus really starts getting risky.

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10-13-2012, 10:17 AM
  #62
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Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem View Post
Hutch is slated to return in maybe August or September. Doubt Drabek comes back next season. Either way, both will need a decent amount of rehab time so don't expect ANYTHING out of them.

Doubt Drabek comes back as a starter either. The rotation is the biggest hole by far. That's what needs to be addressed more than anything. One of Happ/Alvarez needs to start out in the minors. If Happ has no options then too bad for Alvarez.

2 legit starters need to be added no matter what.
I think, just adding to your point, that Drabek's 2 Tommy John Surgeries will really affect the Jays thoughts on what to do with him. He had the first one 4 years ago and it took over a year to return, so I wouldn't expect him to be back.

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10-13-2012, 10:19 AM
  #63
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I think, just adding to your point, that Drabek's 2 Tommy John Surgeries will really affect the Jays thoughts on what to do with him. He had the first one 4 years ago and it took over a year to return, so I wouldn't expect him to be back.
Yep after having 2 TJ surgerys the odds are against him becoming a effective pitcher.

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10-13-2012, 12:26 PM
  #64
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I think, just adding to your point, that Drabek's 2 Tommy John Surgeries will really affect the Jays thoughts on what to do with him. He had the first one 4 years ago and it took over a year to return, so I wouldn't expect him to be back.
That's why I said I doubt he comes back as a starter. TJ success rate is pretty good the first but the number goes down dramatically after the second one and I'm not sure if there are any current starters that have remained starters after the second TJ... but who knows, I guess it can still happen but he probably comes back as a reliever.

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10-13-2012, 02:02 PM
  #65
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Originally Posted by Nasty Nazem View Post
Hutch is slated to return in maybe August or September. Doubt Drabek comes back next season. Either way, both will need a decent amount of rehab time so don't expect ANYTHING out of them.

Doubt Drabek comes back as a starter either. The rotation is the biggest hole by far. That's what needs to be addressed more than anything. One of Happ/Alvarez needs to start out in the minors. If Happ has no options then too bad for Alvarez.

2 legit starters need to be added no matter what.
Drabek will be ready to come back before Huch. That being said, I doubt we see either next year.

I agree though that Drebek doesn't come back as a starter. And I'd rather see Happ than Alvarez to start the year. Make Alvarez get that 3rd pitch ready and force his way up.

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10-13-2012, 02:05 PM
  #66
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IMO, it would be wise to stick with Drabek and Hutchinson and give them a shot when they return. A full year of experience for Alvarez could be beneficial as well.

I think this team actually needs position players more than pitchers.

We have a need for a 2B, a DH and maybe even a LF, unless we start with Gose at CF, move Rasmus to LF and Bautista at RF. But AA has come on the record and said he plans on having Hechevarria and Gose start years in the minors.

All I want are capable replacements for Lind and Johnson. I want them far away from this team. Ken Rosenthal mentioned Torii Hunter as a possibility and I'm warm to the idea. He's an amazing club house guy and can still play.

The rotation with

Romero
Morrow
Happ
Alvarez
Hutchinson/Drabek

is good enough IMO and has potential.
Like I just said, I don't think we'll see either of Huch or Drabek next year.

And while Alvarez would have learned many things in this full year of experience, the biggest thing he needed to learn, a 3rd pitch, can't be learned on the fly in the bigs. He's got to be in the minors to start unless he shows he can learn it over the off season.

That rotation is likely NOT good enough. Maybe if lightning strikes for a few of them, but everything needs to line up

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10-13-2012, 02:06 PM
  #67
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Yep after having 2 TJ surgerys the odds are against him becoming a effective starter.
fixed.

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10-13-2012, 02:36 PM
  #68
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Drabek will be ready to come back before Huch. That being said, I doubt we see either next year.

I agree though that Drebek doesn't come back as a starter. And I'd rather see Happ than Alvarez to start the year. Make Alvarez get that 3rd pitch ready and force his way up.
Isn't the expected recovery time for 2nd TJ surgery longer than the first one? Hutch did it later so he is probably out for the season but it's possible he could come back by August/September and get some minor league games in.

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10-13-2012, 03:58 PM
  #69
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Isn't the expected recovery time for 2nd TJ surgery longer than the first one? Hutch did it later so he is probably out for the season but it's possible he could come back by August/September and get some minor league games in.
I would assume that it would take longer the second time around, but that's simply a guess on my part.

Jason Frasor missed a year (essentially the same amount of time) after his second tommy john surgery. But who knows about a guy that's below the age of 25 with 2.

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10-13-2012, 04:12 PM
  #70
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Ian Kadish is replacing Stilson in AFL who was removed from some injury (minor one I think). Stilson is in instructs now.

Came in relief, pitched 0.1 innings, 2 hits, 1 ER, 1 walk so not exactly a good debut at AFL. Sat 90-92 according to gameday and hit 93-94. A little bit on the older side but he hasn't been in pro for too long. Been great though and he's missed tons of bats.

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10-13-2012, 06:00 PM
  #71
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Excited to see what Pillar can do in the AFL. Good plate discipline, speed, the whole lot. Some power hidden in there too. Extremely raw though according to what I've read.

He's 2 for 4, with a HR and a swipe.

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10-13-2012, 06:18 PM
  #72
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Isn't the expected recovery time for 2nd TJ surgery longer than the first one? Hutch did it later so he is probably out for the season but it's possible he could come back by August/September and get some minor league games in.
I have no idea, it could be. I hadn't heard that.

Even if it is longer, given the cautious nature that the Jays take with their pitchers, I don't think we'll see either until spring 2014

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10-13-2012, 07:43 PM
  #73
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Yep after having 2 TJ surgerys the odds are against him becoming a effective pitcher.

They say the chance of coming back from 2nd TJ surgery is around 50-60%. Chances of him becoming effective are slimmer than that.

Then again you get freaks of nature like Jason Isringhausen who has had 3 and pitched again.

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10-14-2012, 10:38 AM
  #74
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I don't know if anyone has hit on it yet but the team with the most staring pitching is Tampa Bay. It sucks that they are in our division, so if we trade with them it is gonna cost us more, but Tampa has some payroll restrictions and like to move big name players for good prospects. We have one of the deepest farm teams in the major leagues and I think we could make a serious play for David Price.


Some baseball officials also havenít ruled out the Rays moving David Price to fill a couple of positions.

David Price
Position: Pitcher
Bats: Left, Throws: Left
Height: 6' 6", Weight: 220 lb.
Born: August 26, 1985 in Murfreesboro, TN (Age 27)
2013 Contract Status: 1st Year Arb Eligible (Super 2), 1 yr/$4.35M (12)
Service Time (01/2012): 2.164, Arb Eligible: 2013, Free Agent: 2016

The guy is a stud, and could be had for an big deal.
What would it take to get him in a Blue Jays Uniform?

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10-14-2012, 11:24 AM
  #75
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I don't know if anyone has hit on it yet but the team with the most staring pitching is Tampa Bay. It sucks that they are in our division, so if we trade with them it is gonna cost us more, but Tampa has some payroll restrictions and like to move big name players for good prospects. We have one of the deepest farm teams in the major leagues and I think we could make a serious play for David Price.


Some baseball officials also haven’t ruled out the Rays moving David Price to fill a couple of positions.

David Price
Position: Pitcher
Bats: Left, Throws: Left
Height: 6' 6", Weight: 220 lb.
Born: August 26, 1985 in Murfreesboro, TN (Age 27)
2013 Contract Status: 1st Year Arb Eligible (Super 2), 1 yr/$4.35M (12)
Service Time (01/2012): 2.164, Arb Eligible: 2013, Free Agent: 2016

The guy is a stud, and could be had for an big deal.
What would it take to get him in a Blue Jays Uniform?

unless its a 3 team deal, no chance rays trade him to us.

also would anyone be interested in getting soriano and garza from the cubs?

Soriano's Statline last year: HR 32 RBI 108 AVG 262 OBP 322

The deal would give us everything we want in another front of the rotation pitcher and gives us a big bat for LF that we could plug in as our #5 batter behind Joey Bats and EE


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