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considering everyone has already given their thoughts on how luongo's value is affected by the proposed CBA.
First the 1 year 70 million cap. followed by an expected drop to about 60 million in 2013
This allows the Canucks to carry both Luongo and Schneider for one more year without having to worry about the cap. The problem is next year the cap will prohibit both staying on the roster and we will be in the same spot we are now in 2013. The main differences are that Luongo will be a year older, and will have one less productive year left in him. Ignoring outside factors like what other teams need a goalie, IMO waiting until 2013 brings luongo's value down. His value to other teams is right now. every day he stays in vancouver, that is a day he is not in net for a team that is looking to take advantage of his services today. It is unlikely Luongo is going to improve at his age. A very slow decline is much more likely. Gillis has to determine whether one more year of luongo/schneider is worth the definite lower value luongo will have in the 2013 offseason. (Counting on other teams to all of a sudden have a desperate need for a goalie is nothing more than a 1/10 risk)
Now for the proposed rule of not allowing players to be buried in the AHL.
That has a clear negative effect on luongo's value. I don't care that he has said he doesnt plan on playing until his contract runs out. The only certainty is that Luongo has a 5.3 million cap hit for 10 more seasons. Whover aquires luongo has to assume that he intends to play out every year of that contract. Even cap floor teams like the panthers don't want to be stuck with a 5.3 million of dead cap space for the last few years of that deal.
In conclusion, I feel like Luongo's value has taken a slight dip in the past 24 hours. It didnt fall like a rock like most non-canuck fans expected, but it was not a perfect ending for canuck fans either. In my opinion, if the Canucks want to get any value out of trading luongo, it has to be done this year. starting next offseason his value begins to plummet with the lower cap
I'll give your Florida but I'm not so sure about TBay. I think that most teams think they have a good goaltending prospect somewhere in the system but whether that goalie ever pans out is another issue. Even if he does, Corey Schneider took years to become a starter and benefitted hugely by having a stud goalie teach him the ropes. I don't think that many teams with a top prospect goalie would shy away from acquiring Luongo.
Andrei Vasilevski he is reportedly one of the best russian goalies in years to come along and lets not forget about Anders Lindback
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Last edited by jumptheshark: 10-16-2012 at 07:36 PM.
I do not think Luongo has a negative value, but there are some wild card to factor in when talking trade
1) Does the team he is getting traded to have stud goalie in their system (florida and tampa do and so do a few other teams)
2) Is the team he is getting traded to in a win now mode. If my team was a non-playoff team there are obviously other issues that need to be addressed however if my team was a playoff team that was week in net then I would get Luongo
3)How the new CBA looks. Will contracts like Luongo's and a few others that we commonly called retirement contracts where the last 3 to 4 years we know the player will retire, will the new CBA have a penalty clause or a retroactive clause where the if say Luongo retires after the 17/18 season when he is 39---for the 8 years he played his cap hit should have been 7.1mill a year and not 5.33. So that mean there should have been an additional 1.8mill (give or take 100k) on each of the active years. None of us know what the new CBA will include, we know a few teams have said that there should be some penalty for teams who sign players to contracts they do not fullfil.
4) What is Gillis asking for? if it is the moon he maybe in for a rude awakening. Luongo has played a lot of hockey in the last 12 years and his wheels maybe ready to fall off or they may not. Since 2001 he has played 55+ games every year.
the position that i think non-canuck fans and canuck fans disagree on is how big of a market there is for Luongo and that is the wild card
Totally agreed to all of the following. Not disregarding the fact that Luongo's value will be hampered by certain issues, it just seems that some people can't seem to look past these issues and see the positives Luongo will bring. This topic has become terribly irritating.
Rick DiPietro was good enough to be taken 1st overall. Goalie prospects are notoriously hard to predict., especially so soon after they were drafted.
I understand that, but I am taking the point of view from the other teams that have been named so far. TB has two goalies in their system who they may want to see play before the make a move like this. They got two young goalies in their system and both are coming back with good marks. Without setting off too big of an arguement. Someone early pointed out the Luongo would help a none-playoff team make the playoffs. Before he joined Vancouver how many playoff games did Florida play with Luongo in the net? I believe in the answer is zero. Not saying that he would not help, but he plays on a good Vancouver team and that has helped raise his worth many peoples eyes. Vancouver has a good top 4 d (will give garrison the benifit of the doubt till he plays) and the top 6 fw are some of the better in the league. How will Luongo react to playing behind the same type of team he played behind in Florida? that is the million buck question
Totally agreed to all of the following. Not disregarding the fact that Luongo's value will be hampered by certain issues, it just seems that some people can't seem to look past these issues and see the positives Luongo will bring. This topic has become terribly irritating.
The best thing about Luongo he is a clear number 1 goalie for most teams and will play 50+ games. However, if we look at the Model that the Red Wings built with Osgood and Jimmy in net, some teams may realize that a balanced team can bail out a goalie on many nights.
As for the issues--the big one is the CBA and how it will look.
Here is my prediction--according to 90% of the canuck fans I am the biggest anti-canuck fan on this board--if there is no penalty for teams having contracts like Luongos on their books if the player retires early Gillis will find a team willing to give up good stuff for him. However, if there is a penalty clause for the team that has Luongo's or for any contract of a player who retires early, gillis wont get as much as some people think. For me the new CBA will set the market. if there is a penalty clause that deal with the players (more then just Luongo has this type of contract) and the team that holds the contract is the one that takes the hit. this could harm the trade value. We can almost see the year when Luongo is going to call it a career and there is 1.7mill difference in the cap hit when you knock off those last three years.
We need to wait to the new CBA to see what the damage is and like I said, if their no penalty clause there are few teams that have fair goalies getting a cap hit of 4mill a year that for the extra 1.33mill a year cap hit might be willing to broaden the market for goalies.
However, If luongo tried to dictate which team he goes to, that will shrink the market I think
I understand that, but I am taking the point of view from the other teams that have been named so far. TB has two goalies in their system who they may want to see play before the make a move like this. They got two young goalies in their system and both are coming back with good marks. Without setting off too big of an arguement. Someone early pointed out the Luongo would help a none-playoff team make the playoffs. Before he joined Vancouver how many playoff games did Florida play with Luongo in the net? I believe in the answer is zero. Not saying that he would not help, but he plays on a good Vancouver team and that has helped raise his worth many peoples eyes. Vancouver has a good top 4 d (will give garrison the benifit of the doubt till he plays) and the top 6 fw are some of the better in the league. How will Luongo react to playing behind the same type of team he played behind in Florida? that is the million buck question
I doubt TB makes a move unless Lindback collapses without Weber-Suter in front of him. Vasilveski is in all likelihood about 6 years from being an NHL starter.
Also, Florida back when Luongo was there is easily worse than any team in the NHL today.
I understand that, but I am taking the point of view from the other teams that have been named so far. TB has two goalies in their system who they may want to see play before the make a move like this. They got two young goalies in their system and both are coming back with good marks. Without setting off too big of an arguement. Someone early pointed out the Luongo would help a none-playoff team make the playoffs. Before he joined Vancouver how many playoff games did Florida play with Luongo in the net? I believe in the answer is zero. Not saying that he would not help, but he plays on a good Vancouver team and that has helped raise his worth many peoples eyes. Vancouver has a good top 4 d (will give garrison the benifit of the doubt till he plays) and the top 6 fw are some of the better in the league. How will Luongo react to playing behind the same type of team he played behind in Florida? that is the million buck question
He made the allstar game as a panther.... even won the goalie comp.
The best thing about Luongo he is a clear number 1 goalie for most teams and will play 50+ games. However, if we look at the Model that the Red Wings built with Osgood and Jimmy in net, some teams may realize that a balanced team can bail out a goalie on many nights.
As for the issues--the big one is the CBA and how it will look.
Here is my prediction--according to 90% of the canuck fans I am the biggest anti-canuck fan on this board--if there is no penalty for teams having contracts like Luongos on their books if the player retires early Gillis will find a team willing to give up good stuff for him. However, if there is a penalty clause for the team that has Luongo's or for any contract of a player who retires early, gillis wont get as much as some people think. For me the new CBA will set the market. if there is a penalty clause that deal with the players (more then just Luongo has this type of contract) and the team that holds the contract is the one that takes the hit. this could harm the trade value. We can almost see the year when Luongo is going to call it a career and there is 1.7mill difference in the cap hit when you knock off those last three years.
We need to wait to the new CBA to see what the damage is and like I said, if their no penalty clause there are few teams that have fair goalies getting a cap hit of 4mill a year that for the extra 1.33mill a year cap hit might be willing to broaden the market for goalies.
However, If luongo tried to dictate which team he goes to, that will shrink the market I think
Agreed. Although I think the market will only fluctuate slightly through the CBA and not as drastic as you make it sound. I think either way a lot of people on here will be surprised at the value Luongo returns. In the same instance, I think a lot of Canuck fans over-valuing Luongo will also be surprised.
And also, there are many models for success in the NHL. Just because the Red Wings won with mediocre goaltending doesn't mean a damn thing. There are just as many examples where a team revolved around their goaltending to win. It's a weak argument. A GM just has to realistically evaluate his team. If he says to himself "we don't need Luongo because the Red Wings won without a 'Luongo' - then simply put, he is an idiot.
I'll give your Florida but I'm not so sure about TBay. I think that most teams think they have a good goaltending prospect somewhere in the system but whether that goalie ever pans out is another issue. Even if he does, Corey Schneider took years to become a starter and benefitted hugely by having a stud goalie teach him the ropes. I don't think that many teams with a top prospect goalie would shy away from acquiring Luongo.
Tampa has Vasilevski, Lindback, Tokarski, Janus, Helenius all young with high end potential. If any team is better off than most teams in goal it is Tampa.
Wouldn't this mean that a goalie as good as Luongo with as cheap of a cap hit that he carries (relative to other top 10 goalies) would be valuable?
I think you have misunderstood what I was saying. I meant that a lot of the trade proposals have been under the assumption that the cap stayed put. If the cap lowers in year 2 we come back to the same issues we have. Using the nhl's new proposal as grounds for his value going up aren't true. It hasn't changed his value at all. Sorry for typos, and I will elaborate more when I get to a computer.
He made the allstar game as a panther.... even won the goalie comp.
and how many playoff appearnces?
Bringing all star appearances into this discussion is a little silly. It was only a few years ago the NHL changed the rule that every team had to send a player. All star games are not stats I look at as an indicator for much
Agreed. Although I think the market will only fluctuate slightly through the CBA and not as drastic as you make it sound. I think either way a lot of people on here will be surprised at the value Luongo returns. In the same instance, I think a lot of Canuck fans over-valuing Luongo will also be surprised.
And also, there are many models for success in the NHL. Just because the Red Wings won with mediocre goaltending doesn't mean a damn thing. There are just as many examples where a team revolved around their goaltending to win. It's a weak argument. A GM just has to realistically evaluate his team. If he says to himself "we don't need Luongo because the Red Wings won without a 'Luongo' - then simply put, he is an idiot.
if there is no penalty for contract like Luongo (and others) for when the player retires with years on his contract--I say it raises Luongo's value. However, if there are penalties and only the team holding the contract takes the hit--then a team is looking at a 10mill cap hit as a penatly spread over 7 years or so. In a cap world that could be very valuable space.
Also, we have beaten this to death, what teams are in need of Luongo and can take the cap hit? Many of the teams named have goalies in their system, have a self imposed cap or do not want to spend money on a goalie.
Tampa has Vasilevski, Lindback, Tokarski, Janus, Helenius all young with high end potential. If any team is better off than most teams in goal it is Tampa.
I don't think a quantity approach means that TBay is "better off than most teams". They've got options. But clearly, the teams with clear #1 solutions would view themselves in a more favourable position by comparison.
Bringing all star appearances into this discussion is a little silly. It was only a few years ago the NHL changed the rule that every team had to send a player. All star games are not stats I look at as an indicator for much
A goaltender can change the entire dynamic of a team. In Florida's case it didn't really matter if Hasek in his prime played in goal for those teams. There was no chance those Florida teams were going to make the playoffs.
if there is no penalty for contract like Luongo (and others) for when the player retires with years on his contract--I say it raises Luongo's value. However, if there are penalties and only the team holding the contract takes the hit--then a team is looking at a 10mill cap hit as a penatly spread over 7 years or so. In a cap world that could be very valuable space.
Also, we have beaten this to death, what teams are in need of Luongo and can take the cap hit? Many of the teams named have goalies in their system, have a self imposed cap or do not want to spend money on a goalie.
We agree his value will be effected. We just think in different terms of how much it will be effected by the new CBA.
The market will change throughout the year as well. At this point I see Luongo heading to a team we didn't pay much attention to. I kind of suspect Washington.
I don't think a quantity approach means that TBay is "better off than most teams". They've got options. But clearly, the teams with clear #1 solutions would view themselves in a more favourable position by comparison.
All the Goalies listed except Lindback, have had high success in their respective leagues last season. All with projections to be #1 goalies. Whether they reach there is a different story, but having the option that at least one will be a legit #1 is higher than most teams. That was my point. We have a lot of young high end prospect goalies should have been what I said.
Florida may no longer be as far fetched as some think. Under the most recent proposal teams can pay a certain percentage of a player's salary without having the cap hit count against them, perfect for Florida.
•Embracing an idea first proposed by Maple Leafs GM Brian Burke years ago, the league’s offer included the ability to retain salary in trades. Under the expired CBA, teams could not trade or keep parts of a player’s salary in a trade. This new provision would obviously facilitate trades in a cap market that saw deals minimized, especially in the first half of the season.
Florida may no longer be as far fetched as some think. Under the most recent proposal teams can pay a certain percentage of a player's salary without having the cap hit count against them, perfect for Florida.
Florida has their future number goalie in the system and he looks to be the real deal and that I think has the biggest impact on whether or Florida goes for Luongo. Look how Tallon built the hawks, he built it slowly and only went for impact players when they were ready for the cup drive. Panthers are several years away from that and are building slowly. For me. Luongo to florida more or less comes down to when will Jacob Markstrom be ready to start in the NHL. Some people say he will be the full time back up in 13/14 and by 14/15 he is the starter--Florida will find themsleves in the same situation Vancouver is in
Tampa has Vasilevski, Lindback, Tokarski, Janus, Helenius all young with high end potential. If any team is better off than most teams in goal it is Tampa.
Yeah, except for every team that has a goalie who has proven they can be an NHL starter.
Tampa is wasting MSL's years and the rest of Lecavalier's prime years.
