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Early Oscar buzz: ar...go....name some contenders

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Old
10-18-2012, 03:28 PM
  #1
kihei
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Early Oscar buzz: ar...go....name some contenders

In some years serious contenders for an Academy Award have already emerged by this date. But this year, the field seems very wide open at the moment with some recent releases as well as a few works from earlier in the year beginning to gain a little momentum. What movies or performances or technical achievements have you seen so far that you think deserve an Academy Award nomination in the winter?

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Old
10-18-2012, 03:55 PM
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Stu Macher
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I was going to list movies I'd like to see nominated for all of the major awards, but realized that I would be repeating myself too often by saying "The Master". Needless to say, I'd like to see it nominated for Picture, Director, both Actors, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, and Screenplay.

I assume Daniel Day Lewis will be nominated for his role in Lincoln, as bad as that movie (and to an extent, his performance) looks to me. Although the buzz out of New York was highly praising Tommy Lee Jones, saying that he stole the show. If War Horse was able to get in on the 10 nominations last year, any saccharin piece of junk Spielberg releases can get in for Best Picture.

A few smaller things I'd like to see:

Argo getting recognized for its editing. Much like last years winner, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Argo's editing works to maintain the flow, and build the tension. We'll see if this opinion holds up for me for the rest of the year, because I have high hopes for Zero Dark Thirty.

It would also make me happy to see Michael Pena get considered for a Supporting Actor nomination for his role in End of Watch. I really liked that movie, and he was a major reason.

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10-18-2012, 04:03 PM
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Joaquin Phoenix.
Out of spite.

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10-18-2012, 04:14 PM
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Heard Jennifer Lawrence is a strong name for Best Actress in the Silver Linings Playbook

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10-18-2012, 05:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckJet View Post
Heard Jennifer Lawrence is a strong name for Best Actress in the Silver Linings Playbook
Not only is she beautiful, but she's even more talented. Stars in acclaimed indie films, big-budget sci-fi/superhero franchises, and potential Oscar flicks. What a way to start a career.

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10-18-2012, 05:15 PM
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Not only is she beautiful, but she's even more talented. Stars in acclaimed indie films, big-budget sci-fi/superhero franchises, and potential Oscar flicks. What a way to start a career.
Yeah I'm a fan of hers. Didn't like house at the end of the street though. She was the only good thing about it...barely.

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10-18-2012, 05:27 PM
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Heard Jennifer Lawrence is a strong name for Best Actress in the Silver Linings Playbook
I'm betting Lawrence is an early lock for a nomination even though I haven't yet seen Silver Linings Playbook.

One key question how many films will be nominated for best picture, 5, 6, or more?

I doubt Looper makes the cut. Just not Academy Award-type material especially as science fiction is not generally a favoured genre.

I think The Master might make the cut, but has zip chance of winning unless it is a horrible year from here on out.

I believe Argo will make the cut. It is one of three movies that could make the older Academy Award voters feel good about their country: Argo, Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty. Voters in that age group might be smitten by a bit of patriotic zeal. I believe Argo has a chance of winning but only if it is a horrible year from here on out. In other words in terms of Hollywood film, I think it has been a very weak year so far.

My money at the moment is on either Silver Linings Playbook or Les Miserables, both sight unseen. SLP won the People's Choice Award at TIFF, often a good indicator of Oscar glory (American Beauty, Slumdog Millionaire, The King's Speech). Les Mis is a big serious period-piece musical with a respected pedigree adapted from a classic novel with a great cast: if the film is executed well, it offers a lot that Academy voters like. If it's a big hit: turn out the lights.

One real fun twist only just cropped up: Until his recent comments that the Oscars are "total, utter bulls..., and I don’t want to be a part of it," Joaquin Phoenix was the prohibitive favourite in the best actor category for his brilliant work in The Master. I'd bet he'll still get a nomination but his eventual win is no longer looking like quite the sure thing it was a week ago. His comments may well open the door for other fine performances to be considered. Hello, Jean Louis Trintignant (Amour)--my horse in the race even before Phoenix's comments.


Last edited by kihei: 10-18-2012 at 10:10 PM.
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10-18-2012, 05:36 PM
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Even before his comments, I didn't think Phoenix was going to end up winning. I just felt that him and Hoffman are going to split votes, and it'll end up going to somebody that doesn't deserve it as much as either of them. Kind of like a Bette Davis and Anne Baxter situation from All About Eve.

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10-18-2012, 05:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kihei View Post
I'm betting Lawrence is an early lock for a nomination even though I haven't yet seen Silver Linings Playbook.
The buzz is already very strong.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kihei View Post
One key question how many films will be nominated for best picture, 5, 6, or more?
If they go for 8-10 like in recent years, we'll be stuck with more Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close-type crap... or even Ted

I'm hoping that Zero Dark Thirty delivers.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kihei View Post
One real fun twist only just cropped up: Until his recent comments that the Oscars are "total, utter bulls..., and I don’t want to be a part of it," River Phoenix was the prohibitive favourite in the best actor category for his brilliant work in The Master. I'd bet he'll still get a nomination but his eventual win is no longer looking like quite the sure thing it was a week ago. His comments may well open the door for other fine performances to be considered. Hello, Jean Louis Trintignant (Amour)--my horse in the race even before Phoenix's comments.
Posthumous Oscar win?


Last edited by Bloumeister: 10-18-2012 at 05:56 PM.
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10-18-2012, 05:48 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kihei View Post
I'm betting Lawrence is an early lock for a nomination even though I haven't yet seen Silver Linings Playbook.

One key question how many films will be nominated for best picture, 5, 6, or more?

I doubt Looper makes the cut. Just not Academy Award-type material especially as science fiction is not generally a favoured genre.

I think The Master might make the cut, but has zip chance of winning unless it is a horrible year from here on out.

I believe Argo will make the cut. It is one of three movies that could make the older Academy Award voters feel good about their country: Argo, Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty. Voters in that age group might be smitten by a bit of patriotic zeal. I believe Argo has a chance of winning but only if it is a horrible year from here on out. In other words in terms of Hollywood film, I think it has been a very weak year so far.

My money at the moment is on either Silver Linings Playbook or Les Miserables, both sight unseen. SLP won the People's Choice Award at TIFF, often a good indicator of Oscar glory (American Beauty, Slumdog Millionaire, The King's Speech). Les Mis is a big serious period-piece musical with a respected pedigree adapted from a classic novel with a great cast: if the film is executed well, it offers a lot that Academy voters like. If it's a big hit: turn out the lights.

One real fun twist only just cropped up: Until his recent comments that the Oscars are "total, utter bulls..., and I don’t want to be a part of it," River Phoenix was the prohibitive favourite in the best actor category for his brilliant work in The Master. I'd bet he'll still get a nomination but his eventual win is no longer looking like quite the sure thing it was a week ago. His comments may well open the door for other fine performances to be considered. Hello, Jean Louis Trintignant (Amour)--my horse in the race even before Phoenix's comments.

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Old
10-18-2012, 05:50 PM
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If Argo wins anything major I will cry the tears of a thousand mournful widows.

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10-18-2012, 06:06 PM
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Semi-serious question: what are the chances The Avengers gets nominated (it's obviously not going to win)?

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10-18-2012, 06:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Epsilon View Post
Semi-serious question: what are the chances The Avengers gets nominated (it's obviously not going to win)?
The Avengers has a great shot at being nominated for Best Picture. In fact, I'd be very surprised if it doesn't.

Right now, Argo, The Master, and Les Miserables are locks.

Also, I'm sure Helen Hunt and / or John Hawkes will be nominated for The Sessions. The Oscars eat that type of subject material up.

I'd love to see Beasts of the Southern Wild get a nomination for best original score.


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10-18-2012, 06:17 PM
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Even before his comments, I didn't think Phoenix was going to end up winning. I just felt that him and Hoffman are going to split votes, and it'll end up going to somebody that doesn't deserve it as much as either of them. Kind of like a Bette Davis and Anne Baxter situation from All About Eve.
I think Hoffman has a lock on supporting. We will see though, apparently Tommy Lee Jones is really good in Lincoln.

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10-18-2012, 06:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Epsilon View Post
Semi-serious question: what are the chances The Avengers gets nominated (it's obviously not going to win)?
Hulk smash.

Avengers win.

Puny Oscars.

(you said semi-serious )

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10-18-2012, 06:35 PM
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I watched this and went: what's all this about, then? And finally the light, an appropriately dim one, went on. Thanks for the clever nudge.

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10-18-2012, 06:36 PM
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Posthumous Oscar win?
And this baffled me for a second, too. I thought Trintignant had died.

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10-18-2012, 06:57 PM
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I think Hoffman has a lock on supporting. We will see though, apparently Tommy Lee Jones is really good in Lincoln.
We'll see how the studio tries to push them. I could see them trying to get both in as co-leads. I think it would be smart to put Phoenix as lead, and Hoffman as supporting, but who knows what they'll do.

EDIT: I think The Master gets the Tree of Life spot this year. A movie that people are very divided on, but the ambition wins out. I think no matter what, PTA gets a best director nomination.

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10-18-2012, 06:59 PM
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Not yet mentioned:

Cloud Atlas just reeks of Oscar bait.

Moonrise Kingdom IMO could get a BP nom.

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10-18-2012, 07:08 PM
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The Hobbit.

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10-18-2012, 07:13 PM
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And this baffled me for a second, too. I thought Trintignant had died.
Heaven forbid - but he will turn 82 soon

Reminds me that I picked up a copy of Janis & John at a local movie shop for 3.50$ a couple of weeks ago. It's the only movie in which Trintignant and his daughter Marie (RIP poor soul) both play in - although they have no scenes together. Doesn't look like a lauréat d'un César, but I'm sure that it'll be a good popcorn flick.

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10-18-2012, 07:16 PM
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I haven't seen any of Jennifer Lawrence's movies, but I'm in love with her nonetheless.

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10-18-2012, 07:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kihei View Post
I watched this and went: what's all this about, then? And finally the light, an appropriately dim one, went on. Thanks for the clever nudge.
I'm just razzing you. Who can keep up with all of their zany names, anyways?

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10-18-2012, 07:48 PM
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I haven't seen any of Jennifer Lawrence's movies, but I'm in love with her nonetheless.
Winter's bone. If she wins for SLP, I will be overjoyed for her, especially at her age.

Also, Life of Pi gives me that oscary vibe. Think it will get a few nods.

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10-18-2012, 08:00 PM
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From what I've seen (I'm still catching up on 2011):

-Argo (Might not get nominated but I enjoyed it a lot)
-Moonrise Kingdom (I usually am very critical of Wes Anderson's work but this movie is great)
-Prometheus (I know the story is a bit of a mess, and the characters aren't too well developed, but it should get consideration for special effects alone)

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