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Old
10-17-2012, 01:57 PM
  #301
seventieslord
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Team USA 2-man draft. Who wins a 7-game series?


Johnson

LeClair - LaFontaine - Dillon
Tkachuk - Weight - Amonte
Drury - N Broten - Rolston
C Fraser - Otto - Christian

Leetch - G Suter
Ramsey - Housley
Rafalski - Griffis

Brimsek
Vanbiesbrouck

Iafrate, R Suter, Smolinski, McEachern

VS

Brooks

K Stevens - Modano - J Mullen
Z Parise - Roenick - Guerin
Granato - Kesler - Du Brown
R Malone - Langenbrunner - Backes

Chelios - M Howe
D Hatcher - K Hatcher
Schneider - Larson

Barasso
Thomas

Spares: Cole, Gionta, M Cullen, Milbury

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10-17-2012, 02:33 PM
  #302
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I have a store.

I have an item marked at $30. Seventies comes in and offers me $20. We both know we're going to meet at around $25 probably.

I say, "call it $25?"

He says, now thinking the difference in offers is between $25 and $20, "how about $22.50?"

I pull the shotgun out from behind the counter and tell him to make like a tree and get the **** out of here!
Who doesnt love boondock saints!

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10-17-2012, 03:29 PM
  #303
Mike Farkas
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I like the defense of the second team a lot more...a lot of chances are going to be generated against team 1 but they have much better goaltending overall. Tough for me to pick apart the top-sixes because there's such a mix of "career value" vs. "peak value" guys in there...tough for me to say there...

Just when I think my head is beginning to wrap around this, it took me a while to figure out who "C Fraser" was because I was thinking, "nah, it can't be Colin Fraser...he blows...just can't be..." Curt Fraser...of course.

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Old
10-17-2012, 03:42 PM
  #304
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Originally Posted by Mike Farkas View Post
I like the defense of the second team a lot more...a lot of chances are going to be generated against team 1 but they have much better goaltending overall. Tough for me to pick apart the top-sixes because there's such a mix of "career value" vs. "peak value" guys in there...tough for me to say there...
Team 2 has the #1 and 3 defensemen for sure, but they also have the two worst here... I think.

It is the bottom six that has more of a "peak with incomplete career vs. career" aspect to it. The top 6 guys all have full careers, except Parise.

Here's their peak output, the sums of their best six percentage scores (the one pre-expansion guy is bumped up 12%)

Leclair 521
Dillon 518
Roenick 511
Lafontaine 509
Modano 509
Weight 496
Tkachuk 492
Mullen 482
Amonte 457
Stevens 447
Guerin 399
Parise 370


Last edited by seventieslord: 10-17-2012 at 04:01 PM.
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10-17-2012, 04:36 PM
  #305
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You don't need to tell me who wins this one, I already know, but for interest's sake, here's the results of a two-man draft of players not born in the "big 7" countries. It is mostly German and British, but many surprises too. There are not enough of these for a three man draft without doing heavy research into world championship B pools of history, and barely enough for two.

We didn’t bother with coaches as I have no idea who we’d even take. Any ideas?


Tom Anderson (UK) – Tommy Dunderdale (OZ) – Ken Hodge (UK)
Marco Sturm (GER) – Jim McFadden (UK) – Owen Nolan (UK)
Adam Brown (UK) – Walt Tkaczuk (GER) – Willi Plett (PAR)
Craig Adams (BRU) – Richard Park (KOR) – Rudi Ball (GER)

Rod Langway (TAI) – Joe Hall (UK)
Steve Smith (UK) – Jack Evans (UK)
Dunc Munro (UK) – Willie Huber (UK)

Chuck Gardiner (UK)
Olaf Kolzig (SAF)

Spares: Poul Popiel (DEN), Ed Kea (NED), Gord Pettinger (UK), Espen Knutsen (NOR)

VS

Dany Heatley (GER) – Anze Kopitar (SLV) – Steve Thomas (UK)
Tomas Vanek (AUS) – Ivan Boldirev (YUG) – Paul MacLean (FRA)
Jochen Hecht (GER) – Mikhail Grabovski (GER) – Peter Lee (UK)
Wojtek Wolski (POL)– Jim Conacher (UK) – Mariusz Czerkawski (POL)

Mark Hardy (SUI) – Robyn Regehr (BRA)
Christian Ehrhoff (GER) – Mark Streit (SUI)
Uwe Krupp (GER) – Alex Smith (UK)

Byron Dafoe (UK)
Cristobal Huet (FRA)

Spares: Dennis Seidenberg (GER), Marcel Goc (GER), Roman Josi (SUI), Grahame Townshend (JAM)

And a little shout out to the taxi squad of players left on the table:

Dieter Hegen (GER) – Doru Tureanu (ROM) – Kryzystof Oliwa (POL)
Rick Chartraw (VEN) – Brian Glynn (GER)
Wilf Cude (UK)


Last edited by seventieslord: 10-17-2012 at 04:44 PM.
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Old
10-17-2012, 05:07 PM
  #306
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I'll just assume that Kuhnhackl might not have been born in Germany somehow, because there's no way you could have missed him, right? No Tony Hand even in these circumstances? (I have no idea how to rank him, I know the British leagues are of very poor quality).

I'm assuming Arturs Irbe (Latvia) and Peter Bondra (Ukraine?) were left off for being former Soviet republics and just lumped in with them?

Bozon and Paek not good enough, right?


Last edited by Mike Farkas: 10-17-2012 at 05:15 PM.
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Old
10-17-2012, 05:31 PM
  #307
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Originally Posted by Mike Farkas View Post
I'll just assume that Kuhnhackl might not have been born in Germany somehow, because there's no way you could have missed him, right? No Tony Hand even in these circumstances? (I have no idea how to rank him, I know the British leagues are of very poor quality).

I'm assuming Arturs Irbe (Latvia) and Peter Bondra (Ukraine?) were left off for being former Soviet republics and just lumped in with them?

Bozon and Paek not good enough, right?
*gulp*

i totally missed Kuehnhackl... he'd have made a much better 2nd line option than McFadden. My bad. I didn't expect my opponent to catch that one though.

Also - yikes! This means I forgot Kiessling too. After the obvious, Langway and Hall, Kiessling belongs in the next "7 pack" of defensemen who are all arguably in the same range.

You're right about Hand - no idea how to rank him.

Correct about Irbe and Bondra, for the purposes of this one we went strictly by birth country and they were born in USSR (interesting trivia, the first ever NHL player born in a former USSR nation is Viktor Tikhonov - obviously many more will follow now)

Bozon wasn't good enough, correct.

Paek, I'd have taken over Josi at least. But not before Glynn, who was my de facto #8, and not before Seidenberg, my opponent's #7 (that's obvious, i guess)

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Old
10-17-2012, 05:36 PM
  #308
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Team USA 2-man draft. Who wins a 7-game series?


Johnson

LeClair - LaFontaine - Dillon
Tkachuk - Weight - Amonte
Drury - N Broten - Rolston
C Fraser - Otto - Christian

Leetch - G Suter
Ramsey - Housley
Rafalski - Griffis

Brimsek
Vanbiesbrouck

Iafrate, R Suter, Smolinski, McEachern

VS

Brooks

K Stevens - Modano - J Mullen
Z Parise - Roenick - Guerin
Granato - Kesler - Du Brown
R Malone - Langenbrunner - Backes

Chelios - M Howe
D Hatcher - K Hatcher
Schneider - Larson

Barasso
Thomas

Spares: Cole, Gionta, M Cullen, Milbury
One of the closer ones you guys have done. First thing I noticed...How did neither team take Ken Morrow on D? Both really could've used him IMO.

Here's how I quickly looked at it...

Team #2 has a big edge on D. I agree that Team #1 has the better depth there, but it just doesn't matter. Chelios is a good amount better than Leetch and Howe is a ton better than Suter. D. Hatcher is better than Ramsey as well, but that's pretty close. From there the edge starts going to Team #1, and by a lot, but those depth guys are going to see a lot less ice time than the top pairing guys.

That being said, Team #1 has just as big of an edge in goal with Brimsek over Barrasso, so I called those a wash and went to the forwards.

Team #1 has the better top line, Team #2 has the better 2nd line. Team #1 also gets the edge on the 3rd line...I'm assuming Otto and Broten will be splitting time there.

Overall I give it to Team #1, but seeing some special teams might help...Team #1 seems pretty weak on PKing defensemen.


EDIT: Coaching edge also goes to Team #1, and he fits well with all those offensive defensemen.


Last edited by Hawkey Town 18: 10-17-2012 at 05:45 PM.
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Old
10-17-2012, 05:48 PM
  #309
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Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18 View Post
One of the closer ones you guys have done. First thing I noticed...How did neither team take Ken Morrow on D? Both really could've used him IMO.

Here's how I quickly looked at it...

Team #2 has a big edge on D. I agree that Team #1 has the better depth there, but it just doesn't matter. Chelios is a good amount better than Leetch and Howe is a ton better than Suter. D. Hatcher is better than Ramsey as well, but that's pretty close. From there the edge starts going to Team #1, but those depth guys are going to see a lot less ice time than the top pairing guys.

That being said, Team #1 has just as big of an edge in goal with Brimsek over Barrasso, so I called those a wash and went to the forwards.

Team #1 has the better top line, Team #2 has the better 2nd line. Team #1 also gets the edge on the 3rd line...I'm assuming Otto and Broten will be splitting time there.

Overall I give it to Team #1, but seeing some special teams might help...Team #1 seems pretty weak on PKing defensemen.


EDIT: Coaching edge also goes to Team #1, and he fits well with all those offensive defensemen.
Good point. We somehow both overlooked Morrow. I could have had room for him as a spare for sure. Not sure he’d usurp Rafalski/Griffis from my starting lineup. Schneider/Larson? Absolutely.

The second pairings are basically the same things, right? And obviously team 1 is much better on the 3rd pairing. And Leetch is only marginally better than Howe, so considering them more or less equal is about fair. So it’s about the difference between Chelios and Suter, versus the differences on the entire 3rd pairings. And with Griffis being by far the best of those 4, that should offset the Chelios advantage. Shouldn’t it? In any case, I can’t see how the edge is conceivably “big”.

As for 2nd lines, Amonte/Guerin are more or less the same thing, Amonte a little more scoring, Guerin more toughness. Weight is not far behind Roenick, but Parise as of now is FAR behind Tkachuk. How is that not a better 2nd line?

You’re right that there’s not much for PKing defensemen on team 1. Ramsey-Griffis is fine. Then you’d have to go with Leetch-Suter, I imagine. Not ideal, but not horrible. On the other hand, is team 2 all that much better? Chelios-Hatcher make a great 1st unit, but then what? Howe-Hatcher? Howe specialized at even strength and is only passable on the PK in a Suter/Leetch sense, and Kevin Hatcher is a guy who’s only there because he’d do better than Schneider or Larson.

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Old
10-17-2012, 06:53 PM
  #310
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Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
Good point. We somehow both overlooked Morrow. I could have had room for him as a spare for sure. Not sure he’d usurp Rafalski/Griffis from my starting lineup. Schneider/Larson? Absolutely.

The second pairings are basically the same things, right? And obviously team 1 is much better on the 3rd pairing. And Leetch is only marginally better than Howe, so considering them more or less equal is about fair. So it’s about the difference between Chelios and Suter, versus the differences on the entire 3rd pairings. And with Griffis being by far the best of those 4, that should offset the Chelios advantage. Shouldn’t it? In any case, I can’t see how the edge is conceivably “big”.

As for 2nd lines, Amonte/Guerin are more or less the same thing, Amonte a little more scoring, Guerin more toughness. Weight is not far behind Roenick, but Parise as of now is FAR behind Tkachuk. How is that not a better 2nd line?

You’re right that there’s not much for PKing defensemen on team 1. Ramsey-Griffis is fine. Then you’d have to go with Leetch-Suter, I imagine. Not ideal, but not horrible. On the other hand, is team 2 all that much better? Chelios-Hatcher make a great 1st unit, but then what? Howe-Hatcher? Howe specialized at even strength and is only passable on the PK in a Suter/Leetch sense, and Kevin Hatcher is a guy who’s only there because he’d do better than Schneider or Larson.
Perhaps I shouldn't have used the word "big" when talking about Team #2's defensive edge, but I still think they have a clear edge. That Chelios over Suter advantage is going to be on the ice a lot more than the 3rd pairings are, and in much more important game situations.

2 ATD's ago Sturminator pointed out how good of an ES scorer Guerin was, so I probably gave him a bigger edge than you did over Amonte taking into consideration that neither would be getting 1st unit PP minutes. I also probably have Roenick further ahead of Weight than you for a variety of reasons, one of which is probably some personal bias. I also probably overlooked how big Tkachuk's edge over Parise is...the two lines are close in my eyes now. The 1st line edge for your team is certainly bigger than any edge I would give Team #2 here.

I think I need to learn more about Si Griffis...my impression was that he was an offensive minded Dman. I did not think he could be a 1st PK guy, which is why I thought Morrow would have fit well on your bottom pairing.


In the end, this doesn't appear to be as close as I originally thought, which was something I was realizing when I edited my post to add in the coaching edge. Would have been interesting if Team #2 did a better job drafting their Dmen. He was behind in depth forwards as well, but the difference wasn't as big as on D where he really could've had a BIG edge if he took the right guys.

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10-18-2012, 01:48 AM
  #311
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Brimsek better get used to seeing lots of rubber with 5 offense-first defensemen playing in front of him.

I would probably bench Rafalski for Ryan Sutter just to balance the pairings better. It's not like you need Rafalski for the PP with Leetch, Gary Suter, Housley, Griffis, and Rolston there.

Leetch - Ramsey
G Suter - Griffis
Housley - R Suter

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10-18-2012, 02:13 AM
  #312
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Quote:
Originally Posted by seventieslord View Post
You don't need to tell me who wins this one, I already know, but for interest's sake, here's the results of a two-man draft of players not born in the "big 7" countries. It is mostly German and British, but many surprises too. There are not enough of these for a three man draft without doing heavy research into world championship B pools of history, and barely enough for two.

We didn’t bother with coaches as I have no idea who we’d even take. Any ideas?


Tom Anderson (UK) – Tommy Dunderdale (OZ) – Ken Hodge (UK)
Marco Sturm (GER) – Jim McFadden (UK) – Owen Nolan (UK)
Adam Brown (UK) – Walt Tkaczuk (GER) – Willi Plett (PAR)
Craig Adams (BRU) – Richard Park (KOR) – Rudi Ball (GER)

Rod Langway (TAI) – Joe Hall (UK)
Steve Smith (UK) – Jack Evans (UK)
Dunc Munro (UK) – Willie Huber (UK)

Chuck Gardiner (UK)
Olaf Kolzig (SAF)

Spares: Poul Popiel (DEN), Ed Kea (NED), Gord Pettinger (UK), Espen Knutsen (NOR)

VS

Dany Heatley (GER) – Anze Kopitar (SLV) – Steve Thomas (UK)
Tomas Vanek (AUS) – Ivan Boldirev (YUG) – Paul MacLean (FRA)
Jochen Hecht (GER) – Mikhail Grabovski (GER) – Peter Lee (UK)
Wojtek Wolski (POL)– Jim Conacher (UK) – Mariusz Czerkawski (POL)

Mark Hardy (SUI) – Robyn Regehr (BRA)
Christian Ehrhoff (GER) – Mark Streit (SUI)
Uwe Krupp (GER) – Alex Smith (UK)

Byron Dafoe (UK)
Cristobal Huet (FRA)

Spares: Dennis Seidenberg (GER), Marcel Goc (GER), Roman Josi (SUI), Grahame Townshend (JAM)

And a little shout out to the taxi squad of players left on the table:

Dieter Hegen (GER) – Doru Tureanu (ROM) – Kryzystof Oliwa (POL)
Rick Chartraw (VEN) – Brian Glynn (GER)
Wilf Cude (UK)
add a spare to that taxi squad. Rumun Ndur (NIG)

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10-18-2012, 09:54 AM
  #313
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Brimsek better get used to seeing lots of rubber with 5 offense-first defensemen playing in front of him.

I would probably bench Rafalski for Ryan Sutter just to balance the pairings better. It's not like you need Rafalski for the PP with Leetch, Gary Suter, Housley, Griffis, and Rolston there.

Leetch - Ramsey
G Suter - Griffis
Housley - R Suter
You're probably right, call me guilty of looking for the best "overall" player to fill a spot and then trying to make the special teams work from there.

and yeah, Hawks, I've never had Griffis myself, but I thought he was more of a defense-first guy.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hobnobs View Post
add a spare to that taxi squad. Rumun Ndur (NIG)
I always look forward to your comments (and MadArcand's) on these teams.

The presence of Townshend might have made it look like we were trying to represent as many countries as possible, but that was not the case. We were trying to draft the best players possible... my opponent just mailed it in for his spares is all. I don't think Ndur is in the league of Chartraw/Glynn, and if I was gonna add another name to that taxi squad, unless I'm forgetting someone else, I think it would be Jim Paek. Luca Sbisa, Christoff Schubert and Johnny Miszuk would warrant consideration as well.

Christ, we're pretty close to having a whole team's worth of defensemen here. Jonas Hiller could back up Cude too, no problem.

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10-18-2012, 12:38 PM
  #314
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Do I even need to ask?

All-non-Canadian draft:

Tarasov

Ovechkin - Fedorov - Jagr
Kharlamov - Larionov - Makarov
Elias - Modano - Lehtinen
Firsov - Petrov - Mikhailov

Lidstrom - Chelios
Fetisov - Kasatonov
Chara - Langway

Tretiak
Brimsek

Spares, Hall (D/RW), Maltsev (RW/C), Griffis (D/F), Dunderdale (C/RW)

VS

Brooks

Leclair - Forsberg - Selanne
Tkachuk - Stastny - Kurri
Zetterberg - Datsyuk - Hossa
Tikkanen - Sundin - Alfredsson

Salming - Vasiliev
Howe - Leetch
G Suter - Zubov

Hasek
Lundqvist

Spares: K Stevens (LW), Numminen (D), Lafontaine (C), Roenick (C)

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10-18-2012, 01:46 PM
  #315
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Did Team 1 go first...? Meaning, did they draft their team first?

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10-18-2012, 01:48 PM
  #316
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A crushes B.

And the 'exotic country' draft would be more interesting if you disqualified obvious accidental abroad births (Adams, Langway, Regehr etc.) and simply went by where a player learned to play.

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10-18-2012, 02:15 PM
  #317
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Did Team 1 go first...? Meaning, did they draft their team first?


Quote:
Originally Posted by MadArcand View Post
A crushes B.

And the 'exotic country' draft would be more interesting if you disqualified obvious accidental abroad births (Adams, Langway, Reagehr etc.) and simply went by where a player learned to play.
True. Also a lot tougher. Look who we resorted to drafting, now imagine us going 6-8 picks deeper than that!

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10-18-2012, 02:17 PM
  #318
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A crushes B. And the 'exotic country' draft would be more interesting if you disqualified obvious accidental abroad births (Adams, Langway, Regehr etc.) and simply went by where a player learned to play.
Agreed. Also, being born abroad does not always mean you are not a citizen of your parent's home country. R Malone is not good enough to be a top 8 LW for the US. He didn't even get taken in the MLD.

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10-18-2012, 07:06 PM
  #319
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Do I even need to ask?

All-non-Canadian draft:

Tarasov

Ovechkin - Fedorov - Jagr
Kharlamov - Larionov - Makarov
Elias - Modano - Lehtinen
Firsov - Petrov - Mikhailov

Lidstrom - Chelios
Fetisov - Kasatonov
Chara - Langway

Tretiak
Brimsek

Spares, Hall (D/RW), Maltsev (RW/C), Griffis (D/F), Dunderdale (C/RW)

VS

Brooks

Leclair - Forsberg - Selanne
Tkachuk - Stastny - Kurri
Zetterberg - Datsyuk - Hossa
Tikkanen - Sundin - Alfredsson

Salming - Vasiliev
Howe - Leetch
G Suter - Zubov

Hasek
Lundqvist

Spares: K Stevens (LW), Numminen (D), Lafontaine (C), Roenick (C)
Wow, not close at all. You have the 3 best Dmen and 3 best forwards. How did that happen?

Pretty sure your 4th line is better than their 2nd line too.


EDIT: Although now that I look closer, your 4th line is better than your 3rd line also.


EDIT 2: I guess Forberg could be argued over Kharlamov or Makarov, but either way you still have the top 4 skaters with Lidstrom, Jagr, Fetisov, and Chelios.

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10-18-2012, 07:16 PM
  #320
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Either team can win.

I like the Hockey Outsider approach to analysis: show how each team could win. The easiest way of course will be with the better squad. But actually looking at how each team could win develops insights into the weaknesses and Achilles' heels of even the best of teams, utilizing the strengths and synergistic dynamics of all-time greats on both sides - a very respectful approach.

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10-18-2012, 07:42 PM
  #321
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and yeah, Hawks, I've never had Griffis myself, but I thought he was more of a defense-first guy.
Griffis was more of an attacking player in his Kenora days, playing some rover in addition to his main position of cover point. Later in Vancouver he was slower and played a more defensive role. Not an uncommon career path.

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10-18-2012, 10:59 PM
  #322
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Griffis was more of an attacking player in his Kenora days, playing some rover in addition to his main position of cover point. Later in Vancouver he was slower and played a more defensive role. Not an uncommon career path.
I've done a lot of research on Kenora (doing major bios of both Tommy Phillips and Billy McGimsie recently). So it makes sense that I think of the more attacking version of Griffis.

Regardless, Gary Suter is an awful partner for Brian Leetch

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10-19-2012, 09:26 AM
  #323
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hawkey Town 18 View Post
Wow, not close at all. You have the 3 best Dmen and 3 best forwards. How did that happen?
Hasek
Lidstrom/Jagr
Kurri/Forsberg
"Really? OK. I'll take Fetisov/Chelios"
Selanne/Salming
Kharlamov/Makarov
Leetch/Datsyuk
Tretiak/Fedorov
Howe/Vasiliev
Langway/Ovechkin
Hossa/Stastny
Chara/Modano
LeClair/Zetterberg

it was easy to take the best "value players" for my 2nd picks and solidify the defense, knowing that my opponent was already going for Kurri and Forsberg over Kharlamov and Makarov. I knew they'd take a couple panic defensemen giving me a chance to catch up on forwards - and I had the best forward to start anyway.

his advantages:

1. better starting goalie

2. better #4 defenseman. After I had the top 3 I backed off, and I think Leetch, Salming, Howe, Vasiliev are the next best 4, and whoever you think his #4 is, is generally higher regarded than whoever you think my #3 is (Chara? Langway?)

close: 1. 3rd lines. The battles at LW and C can go either way; they are classic longevity vs peak cases, and at RW it is "good offense, ok defense vs. ok defense, good offense".

close: 4th line C. Sundin/Petrov aren't that far apart.

my advantages: everything else (I think)

I actually thought this would be an epic battle after all the training we had done with the other countries

Quote:
EDIT: Although now that I look closer, your 4th line is better than your 3rd line also.
It's not that uncommon to end up with "better" players on a 4th line, but the guys I have on the 3rd make a much better "classic" defensive 3rd line.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMe View Post
Regardless, Gary Suter is an awful partner for Brian Leetch
yeah, maybe. i liked your configuration better.

USA draft's over - it's now "everything but Canada". Leetch and Suter got split up.

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Old
10-30-2012, 11:31 AM
  #324
Hawkman
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I saw this at Puck Daddy. What do you guys think of this proposed trade?

"Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week

User "Westhotsauce" wants to bring Jeff Skinner home.

To Car: Jake Gardiner + Carter Ashton + Lupul
To Tor: Jeff Skinner + 2013 2nd"

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Old
10-30-2012, 12:55 PM
  #325
Hobnobs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by God Made Me View Post
I saw this at Puck Daddy. What do you guys think of this proposed trade?

"Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Week

User "Westhotsauce" wants to bring Jeff Skinner home.

To Car: Jake Gardiner + Carter Ashton + Lupul
To Tor: Jeff Skinner + 2013 2nd"
pretty good value wise but I would probably still hang on to Skinner if I were the Canes. His upside is just unbelieveable.

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